Friday, November 18, 2022

An each-way chance for the Haydock finale

Earlier today the going at Haydock was described as soft on the chase course; soft, good to soft in places on the hurdles course, with further rain forecast before tomorrow's meeting.

All eyes will be on A Plus Tard in the Betfair Chase (3.00) but I've decided to focus on the Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (3.35), run over the same distance as the Betfair Chase.

Incidentally the 14/1 offered by Ladbrokes / Coral earlier today about Botox Has in the Betfair Exchange Stayers' Handicap Hurdle (2.25) caught my eye. 

Gary Moore's charge ran a fine race on seasonal debut at Cheltenham four weeks ago, failing to concede 16 pounds to race-fit rival Shoot First by two lengths.

The handicapper raised Botox Has four pounds to a mark of 144 for that effort but Caoilin Quinn claims seven tomorrow.

Gary Moore doesn't send too many to Haydock and a couple in the field try the trip for the first time - including Might I (probably well-treated off 142) and Good Risk At All.

At the time of writing Botox Has is generally a 12/1 shot and 11/1 with William Hill who pay five places. 

After that slight digression, there's this.

It's a guess how the chase course is going to ride after the three preceding races on the card (12.40; 1.50; 3.00) but the chances are a slog in the mud will ensue.

With ten of the twelve declared set to carry more than 11-0 and joint top-weights Good Boy Bobby and Lord Du Mesnil 12-1, it's no real surprise to see Houston Texas with a weight of 10-5 chalked up favourite.

Nicky Richards' charge impressed at Carlisle three weeks ago but has yet to win going left-handed.

The mare Fontaine Collonges has not raced beyond two miles four and a half furlongs and the form of the Venetia Willaims stable is a concern with no winner for 210 days. 

Ms. Williams will be hoping for a change of fortune with Achile (12.40 Haydock), L'Homme Presse (2.05 Ascot) and  Frero Banbou (3.15 Ascot).

Top weights Good Boy Bobby and Lord Du Mesnil look closely matched. The former beat the latter one and threequarters lengths in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. 

On a strict reading of the form, Lord Du Mesnil is weighted to reverse those placings but 'The Lord' is a bit of a character who on occasions doesn't put his best foot forward. 

Richard Hobson's charge beat Achille in the Grand National Trial over this course in 2021 and I fancied him to repeat the trick 12 months later but, carrying my hard-earned, he ran no race at all behind The Galloping Bear and was pulled up.   

That said, his comeback run behind Le Milos at Bangor ten days ago points to a bold show.

Musical Slave beat Enqarde over course and distance in April before finishing a fine second behind Hewick in the bet365 Chase at Sandown seven days later. 

In the past there have been questions over his jumping and the gelding hasn't always appeared overly keen but the fitting of cheekpieces appears to have helped significantly.

The Big Breakaway finished third behind Monkfish in the 2021 Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival but, to date, hasn't built on that potential.

Freddie Gingell's ten pounds claim will help Truckers Lodge but on the eve of his eleventh birthday the suspicion is his best days are behind him and the same comment would apply to twelve-year-old Crosspark.

I'm a bit of Crosspark fan after he did me a favour in the 2019 Eider Chase at Newcastle. 

This one hasn't gone unbacked during the week on his first run for new connections but to my mind he has shown his very best form on good and good to soft ground in the past.

Rapid Flight was well beaten behind Crystal Glory at Hexham three days ago, If Not For Dylan races from out of the handicap and Easysland has been pulled up on his four runs for Jonjo O'Neill.

Three weeks ago Good Boy Bobby ran well for a long way behind Our Power at Ascot before fading into seventh, beaten 21 lengths, with Rapper a further three lengths adrift in ninth.

Rapper has been dropped two pounds to 139 - and last season progressed noticeably for his first run. The gelding won off a mark of 137 at Wincanton last February. 

Henry Daly has his team in rude health, operating at a win-strike rate of 38% in the past fortnight. 

With Good Boy Bobby generally priced at 6/1 (bet365 stand out at 8/1) and Rapper at 16/1, Rapper is the each-way suggestion - most layers are paying one fifth the odds four places.


TW said...

Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase

153,16.02,LORD DU MESNIL(FR)

The system is keen on Houston Texas [HT] and I’m hoping to get some 5.0+ (4/1+) on Betfair before post time. Like you system has dismissed Fontaine Collonges because of concerns over the trip and the trainer. Of those at a bigger price Rapper scores well on the system so will hopefully run a big race.

I’m also hoping Innisfree Lad can further frank HT’s chance by taking the 12:40 at odds of 11/1 win only.

Betfair Exchange Stayers' Handicap Hurdle

156,13.61,BOTOX HAS(FR)
155,11.09,GET A TONIC(IRE)
153,10.73,AILIE ROSE(IRE)
153,3.88,MIGHT I(IRE)

I took the 14/1 [4plcs 1/5 odds] about Botox Has earlier because it also caught's hoping.

Good luck!


GeeDee said...

Thanks for providing your ratings, TW.

Good luck!

TW said...

Incidentally the 14/1 offered by Ladbrokes / Coral earlier today about Botox Has in the Betfair Exchange Stayers' Handicap Hurdle (2.25) caught my eye.

No need to go to Specsavers....


TW said...

Rapper is the each-way suggestion - most layers are paying one fifth the odds four places.

Well done to you and well done to Ms. Williams as she finally gets a winner!


GeeDee said...

The finish of the Haydock finale was fought out between Fontaine Collonges (7/2) and The Big Breakaway (7/1) with the former eventually called the winner by a head.

The mare, giving Venetia Williams her first winner since April, was awash with sweat during the preliminaries and was kept apart from the rest of the field at the start.

She raced prominently and led narrowly from two out, managing to hold off the strong challenge of Joe Tizzard's inmate.

The Big Breakaway lost his early pitch with a couple of slow leaps and looked in trouble down the back straight but Brendan Powell never gave up in the saddle and the pair made significant late headway, only just failing to catch the leader.

Selection Rapper (14/1) looked cooked rounding the home turn but he stayed on well late on to claim a modest third, 11 lengths or so behind the front two.

Botox Has - mentioned in disptaches - obliged at odds of 17/2 in the Stayers' Handicap Hurdle. Such prescience on my own part didn't match that of TW who backed Gary Moore's charge yesterday at odds of 14/1.