Thursday, December 26, 2019

Welsh Grand National 2019

Earlier today I was approached  by a punter who suggested PG stood for Port Guzzler - the sheer temerity of it. The same punter then proceeded to ask me for an each-way suggestion for tomorrow's Welsh National (2.50 Chepstow).

My minimalist response is reproduced below - one for you to take or for you to leave.

Sky Bet pays six places and offers 9/1 about Prime Venture in first time cheekpieces; enthusiasm is tempered by the fact the horse has never won a race over fences.

The vote goes to The Two Amigos, placed in five of his six chase starts to date; Nicky Martin's charge is currently quoted an 18/1 chance with  Paddy Power / Betfair who pay one fifth the odds five places.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Elegant Escape tops my system output and given a trouble-free passage, he stands a good chance of winning this for the second year running even off his higher mark. The Two Amigos was the next horse output by the system but, perhaps unfairly, a red flag next to the form of jockey Matt Griffiths prevented the system from recommending a bet. Yala Enki and Potters Corner also scored well but with no edge in their odds I’m happy to just watch this year’s renewal.

Good luck!

TW

Anonymous said...

In the ongoing search for a bet I updated the going at Kempton from Soft to Soft, Heavy in places in line with Barney Clifford’s updated going report and re-ran the Kempton races through the system and it has thrown up a potential candidate in the last.

A race that younger horses do well in there are dangers everywhere, not least the Henderson pair whose last time out Newbury efforts can probably be upgraded following Epatante’s emphatic win yesterday.

But the only horse that has ticked all the system boxes is the 7-y-o Brandon Castle. His form record on heavy going reads 3311 and for soft ground it reads 233611P. His career over hurdles with Neil King started well with three straight wins including a handicap off 2lbs lower than today’s mark. He was then outclassed in Supreme at the festival but put in a better effort back in handicap company on going perhaps faster than ideal in April. Pulled up on a delayed seasonal return after a bout of colic I’m hoping the race will have sharpened him up for this, that the drop to a mark of 132 will help him be competitive and that he’ll cope with these conditions better than most in the field.

There looks some value in the 33/1 [3 plc ¼ odds].

TW

GeeDee said...

Good luck with Brandon Castle, TW. Will watch with interest.

GeeDee said...

For much of the race The Two Amigos (8/1) raced at the head of affairs jumping swiftly and economically. Eventual winner Potters Corner (8/1), with seven pound claimer Jack Tudor up, went on from three out with the selection in the chasing pack approaching the last. Nicky Martin's charge just appeared to run out of petrol after that final flight but stayed on to claim fifth spot just ahead of Elegant Escape (9/4f) who made a couple of niggling errors up the home straight.

The Paul Nicholls' pair Truckers Lodge (10/1) and Yala Enki (8/1) finished second and third respectively while Prime Venture (11/1) was fourth. Just over four lengths separated the first four home while the selection was a further six lengths adrift in fifth.

Anonymous said...

Well done; an exciting Welsh National and a great effort by Two Amigos [and his jockey!].

Brandon Castle proved disappointing.

TW

GeeDee said...

After some deliberation, I've decided not to play tomorrow, TW. Off to Warwick on New Year's Eve so starting the homework early...