Midlands Grand National 2019

A somewhat curtailed post following a hectic week at Cheltenham...

Twenty runnners have been declared for tomorrow's Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter due off at 3.35; the going is currently described as soft with strong winds and heavy rain forecast - an inspection has been called for eight o'clock tomorrow morning.

Only two winners have carried more than 11-0 to victory in the past ten years - Synchronised in 2010 and Firebird Flyer in 2016; Ms Parfois and American at the top of the market are set to carry 11-4 and 11-12 respectively.

Last year's winner Regal Flow became the first horse older than nine to come home in front since Lucky Lane obliged in 1995.

A key piece of form is The Last Fling Handicap Chase run at Haydock on December 30th last year. Chef D'Oeuvre beat Back To The Thatch two and threequarter lengths that day with Dell'Arca a further twelve lengths adrift in third.

Chef D'Oeuvre was raised eleven pounds for that victory and went up another four when finishing third (from three pounds out of the handicap) behind Robinsfirth and Ramses De Teillee in Haydock's Grand National Trial.The form reads well and the horse has clearly benefited from a change of stable but inevitably the handicapper has had his say.

Both Back To The Thatch and Dell'Arca haven't run since - the former is up six pounds, the latter down one pound. Back To The Thatch re-opposes Chef D'Oeuvre nine pounds better off for two and threequarter lengths. 

On his seasonal debut for new connections Chef D'Oeuvre was beaten over 21 lengths at this track by Crosspark.

Crosspark won the Eider three weeks ago with Kilkishen six and a half lengths adrift in fourth, Raz De Maree seventh  and Potters Corner falling two from home when appearing to hold every chance.

Potters Corner has been raised three pounds for that effort; he is clearly a talented individual but the fences seem to be getting in the way - Christian Williams' charge has failed to complete in three of his last four chase starts.

Arthur's Gift is relatively unexposed while Ballydine boasts good form behind Lake View Lad, Carole's Destrier and particularly behind Wakanda in the Peter Marsh at Haydock - beaten under five lengths that day, he may have finished much closer but for a bad blunder three from home.

Dawson City, seventh behind Elegant Escape in the Welsh National, collected the Devon National at Exeter three weeks ago and should certainly having little trouble staying the trip but now looks high enough in the handicap.  

Of those at bigger prices Smooth Stepper did me a favour roughly 12 months ago when winning at Kelso; the balance of his form suggests he struggles to stay beyond three and a half miles. Prime Venture has not won over fences in five starts but has been pitched in against the likes of Bags Groove, Kilbricken Storm and Ramses De Teillee.

It's possible to make a case for several in the field. Comments from connections have led me to Back To The Thatch who has the right profile and comes to this a fresher horse than those who ran in the Eider.

At the time of writing William Hill offer 11/1 and pay one fifth the odds seven places.

Back To The Thatch is the each-way selection with William Hill.