Friday, March 22, 2019

Aye, right

I can't help but feel whatever luck the racing gods decided to throw my way at the beginning of this season, a rather large portion of it was used up at Cheltenham last week...

Noel Fehily retires at Newbury tomorrow after more than 20 years in the saddle. His final three mounts: Prabeni (2.40); Outofthisworld (3.15); and Get In The Queue (5.00).

I shall always remember his ride aboard Special Tiara in the 2017 Champion Chase; thanks for the memories, Noel, and we wish you a long and happy retirement.

The ITV cameras visit Kelso and I was hoping to strike an each-way wager in the Liz Adam Memorial Handicap Chase at 3.00 but a final field of eight has restricted opportunities; four of the eight - Rons Dream, Some Chaos, Le Reve and Calipso Collonges - held entries for races at Newbury but prefer to go north instead.

The last-named, owned by The Black Horse Hotel Bridgnorth, has something to find with a few on Racing Post ratings but rates an interesting prospect while Some Chaos is another unexposed type who has been raised 11 pounds for his win at Wincanton last time.

In complete contrast eleven-year-old Le Reve comes into the race in fine form and in February 2016 won off a mark of 144.

Favourite Blue Flight beat Black Corton half a length here three weeks ago and as a result has gone up 14 pounds for his trouble. I'm not certain I want to treat that result too literally as Black Corton had looked to have a hard enough race at Ascot two weeks earlier when beaten two and a quarter lengths by Calipto.

Mare Rons Dream fell last time out but before that had finished fourth behind Elegant Escape in the Welsh National.

I'm toying with the idea of putting up Capard King as the each-way wager but I'm swithering.

He appeared to show a return to some kind of form on his stable debut for Sandy Thomson two weeks ago and back in 2016 won off a mark of 136 for Jonjo O'Neill.

All told though this looks a tough ask so instead I'm going to take an interest in the handicap hurdle at 3.35.

Favourite Worthy Farm is tipped up in the Weekender and is clear top-rated on Racing Post ratings.

Captain Drake is considered a chasing prospect; Harry Fry's charge was duelling with Tomkevi at Southwell the last day when the latter unseated Mr Aaron Anderson at the last. Conor O''Farrell rides for Rebecca Menzies tomorrow but at the weights the form looks likely to be confirmed although Tomkevi will appreciate underfoot conditions here and the stable are in fine form.

Burrows Park finished a creditable ninth in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham just eight days ago while the market suggests Seemorelights (fell when leading last time) holds the better chance of Sandy Thomson's two runners.

I'm going to take an each-way interest in Aye Right, a turn of phrase often used by my father-in-law when he suspects I might be engaged in a minor deception of some sort.

This one likes to race from the front (the horse that is, not my father-in-law) and has been placed in seven of his eight hurdle starts to date. I always think Kelso is a track that suits a front-runner; he could find some improvement on this first try beyond two miles six and a half furlongs but he'll need to in a very competitive affair.

Sky Bet pay one fifth the odds four places; at 8/1 Aye Right is the each-way suggestion.

4 comments:

Steve Mullington said...

Maebh (33) & Off the Hook (12) both e/w at Newbury tomorrow in the EBF Mare's Final.

GeeDee said...

Noted, Mully.
Good luck!

Anonymous said...

RTG Horse
154 WORTHY FARM(IRE)
151 CAPTAIN DRAKE(IRE)
149 ROCKLANDER(IRE)
149 SEEMORELIGHTS(IRE)
147 TOMKEVI(FR)
147 BURROWS PARK(FR)
147 AYE RIGHT(IRE)
146 TAXMEIFYOUCAN(IRE)
146 ARTHURS SECRET(GB)
146 RIVABODIVA(IRE)
145 TEESCOMPONENTS LAD(GB)

Worthy Farm looks a worthy favourite; still progressing, 7lb rise for LTO win offset by Lorcan’s claim, going perfect and the extra 2F looking sure to suit. Of course, all of that is over engineered in to his odds so he’s a bit too short in the market.

Of the others my system suggested Burrows Park and Arthurs Secret may be well suited by conditions; but on balance a race I’ll sit out.

They’ve given Noel every chance of bowing out with a winner, but in racing he and the horse will still need to take it.

I’m a believer that luck plays little part in betting or more accurately that the good and bad luck evens itself if you play long enough.

So, good luck today!

TW

GeeDee said...

To quote TW:

'Of the others my system suggested Burrows Park and Arthurs Secret may well be suited by conditions...'

So it proved with Burrows Park (5/1) racing prominently behind the sedate pace set on ground described as good, good to soft in places; once sent on three out Venetia Williams' charge never really came under any serious threat, finishing three and a quarter lengths ahead of Captain Drake (3/1) with Arthurs Secret (25/1) third.

Selection Aye Right (13/2) was restrained here and looked particularly keen to go faster in the early stages; he came home well-beaten in fourth, just under nine lengths behind the winner, in a race I'm sure connections will remark wasn't necessarily run to suit.

I was surprised to see Capard King sent off 7/2 favourite for the Liz Adam Memorial Handicap Chase given he had been priced up a 12/1 shot last night. In the event, he took a liberty at a couple of obstacles before blundering and unseating Rachael McDonald at the thirteenth. The race went to Some Chaos (4/1) - Michael Scudamore's charge wasn't foot-perfect either - with Blue Flight (7/1) second and Claud And Goldie (7/1) third.