Sunday, March 10, 2019

Cheltenham Festival 2019 - Tuesday

With persistent rain forecast before racing on Tuesday, clerk of the course Simon Claisse believes this year's Festival will start with soft ground.

Eighteen have been declared for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle due off at 1.30. There have been noticeable market moves in the past few days for Angels Breath - Nick De Boinville rides - and Klassical Dream, the mount of Ruby Walsh. At the time of writing both Ladbrokes and Black Type price up Angels Breath as the clear favourite.

My view on the race remains much as outlined in the preceding post:

Handler Nigel Twiston-Davies is on record saying favourite Al Dancer is his best chance of the week; the gelding's victory in the re-arranged Betfair Hurdle at Ascot certainly looked impressive. The two most recent Betfair winners to contest this - Ballyandy in 2017 and Kalashnikov in 2018 - finished fourth and second respectively. A couple of concerns - in the past decade just two favourites have obliged while Getaway Trump, fourth behind Al Dancer at Ascot, ran no sort of race at Kelso last Saturday and I'm just wondering whether that Ascot race has left its mark.

Nicky Henderson has two entries - Angels Breath was odds-on when turned over at Kempton last time but connections feel this track will play more to his strengths while Mister Fisher is given every respect but in the past has shown he can boil over in the preliminaries. Stable jockey Nick De Boinville rides Angels Breath.

It's no secret Joseph O'Brien is a trainer going places and just last month owner JP McManus purchased Fakir D'Oudairies. As a four-year-old the gelding receives his weight-for-age allowance but only three others in that age bracket have contested this event in the past decade and none have been placed. The last four-year-old to come home in front was Hors La Loi III in 1999; Fakir D'Oudairies also holds an entry in Friday's Triumph Hurdle.

There's a feeling in some parts that the Tolworth form - Elixir de Nutz beat Grand Sancy half a length - may have been underestimated. Elixir De Nutz has won over both the old and new courses here racing from the front. Those tactics may make him vulnerable at the business end but Colin Tizzard's charge could prove hard to pass; at around 8/1 I'm considering an each-way wager.


William Hill stands out by paying one fifth the odds seven places; Elixir De Nutz is the each-way selection at 8/1 with William Hill.

Just ten go to post for the highlight of the first day, the Champion Hurdle at 3.30. 

Buveur D'Air won this race in 2017 and beat Melon a neck in last year's renewal. Nicky Henderson's charge is particularly quick over the obstacles (although he has been known to miss one out in a race) but he faces no easy task conceding weight to the two mares in the field, Apple's Jade and Laurina; Annie Power was the last mare to come home in front in 2016.

The market suggests the race is between the three principals and I'm not inclined to disagree. I considered Brain Power as an each-way proposition but on official ratings the eight-year-old has enough to find and was beaten 30 lengths into eighth behind Buveur D'Air in the 2017 running. In the last ten years there have been just two winners over seven years of age - Hurricane Fly (2013)  and Annie Power (2016). 

Apple's Jade is my idea of the winner but I'm not going to play.

Sky Bet pay one fifth the odds six places in the Ultima Chase at 2.50; I've succumbed to temptation and will take an each-way interest in Lake View Lad at 20/1. 

His profile doesn't match that of recent winners and top weight isn't ideal either although Un Temps Pour Tout won carrying a similar burden in 2017. All that said, I thought he was impressive in the Rowland Meyrick last time, he will relish soft ground and the stable has sent out five winners in the past fortnight. Owned by Trevor Hemmings, the gelding holds an entry in the Grand National so I'd be hopeful of decent showing here on the way to Aintree.

Lake View Lad is the speculative each-way suggestion at 20/1 with Sky Bet, one fifth the odds six places.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle

183 FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES
174 ANGELS BREATH
173 KLASSICAL DREAM
170 AL DANCER
….
160 ELIXIR DE NUTZ

The system rating for Fakir D’Oudairies may be a touch optimistic but he still looks a decent bet not withstanding that 4yo stat you noted (only 1 of the 3 stood any real chance at the odds and it ran an OK race). We’ll know more on the substance of the Tolworth form post the race.

1PT EW Fakir D’Oudairies 13/2 7 places 1/5 odds



Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

181 LALOR(GER)
178 GLEN FORSA(IRE)

Two stand-out horses on the system ratings but at current odds I’ll hold fire. Should Lalor drift to 6/1+ then I’d take an interest.


Ultima Handicap Chase

173 CRUCIAL ROLE
171 BIG RIVER
170 OLDGRANGEWOOD
169 SINGLEFARMPAYMENT
169 BEWARE THE BEAR
165 LAKE VIEW LAD

Crucial Role tops the ratings but at the odds, given that he has bled a few times in his races, I’m happy to pass him over in the hope that Big River (BR) can bounce back to form in this. BR’ defeat of Shantou Flyer (a nk 2nd in this race last year off 152) at Kelso in Feb 2018 reads well and BR followed that up with a good effort at Uttoxeter. He started this season as 5/1F in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle on a mark of 142 (won by Lake View Lad [139]) when falling at the 10th. BR then put in a flat effort in hurdle race but it is unclear what the intent was that day. The yard has a good record with staying chases, for a 9yo he is still unexposed (2 wins from 6 chase starts) and has a great record fresh (100+ day absence: 121F) and I’m hoping this race has been his target. It would be great if BR or LVL could bring the prize back up north!

1PT EW Big River 33/1 6 places 1/5 odds


Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

186 APPLE'S JADE
185 LAURINA
179 BUVEUR D'AIR
The ratings suggest that the two Irish mares will fight out the finish with possibly Laurina at 4/1 offering just the better value. A race to watch and enjoy.


Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase

167 GOOD MAN PAT
165 SPRINGTOWN LAKE
163 A PLUS TARD
163 SHADY OPERATOR
163 QUAMINO
162 HIGHWAY ONE O ONE
162 RED INDIAN

I’m not sure what Alan king has had to say about Good Man Pat but he looks to have been brought along nicely, his proven stamina and ability to act on whatever the ground happens to be is a plus and 20/1 EW looks a fair bet (It’s likely that enhanced place terms will be available later today). Last year’s Coral Cup 6th Red Indian might also out run his odds at 25/1.

1PT EW Good Man Pat 16/1 EW 6 Places 1/5 Odds
½ PT EW Red Indian 22/1 EW 5 places 1/5 Odds

With 7 PTS already invested on Day 1 [perhaps more if Lalor drifts] I’ve succumbed to 1st day excitement and forgot the promise to pace myself better over the 4-days!

Best of luck

TW

GeeDee said...

Thanks for your ratings, TW.

I'll join you with Lalor at 6/1 or bigger.

Big River has been on my radar for some time. I distinctly remember his third behind Ms Parfois at Warwick Jan 2018 (having previously been pulled uop behind Clan Des Obeaux at Haydock)- looked as though he just needed to find his confidence over the larger obstacles. Has nice racing weight and every chance if the jumping holds together.

Excitement building...

Wishing everyone the very best of luck!

Anonymous said...

Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

I've added a 1PT win on Lalor at 13/2, so now have an 8PT exposure on Day 1

TW

Sandracer said...

I think De Nutz is out Geedee...

GeeDee said...

TW,

Good luck! Haven't tipped Lalor but 13/2 looks decent value to me and at that price I'll take an interest tomorrow.

Sandracer,

Just read your update following an evening of alcoholic restoratives. Nutz! I need another alcoholic restorative to compensate... ;)

GeeDee said...

TW,

Lucinda Russell - RP Straight from the Stable 13-17.12.17

'I really love this horse. He won three times over hurdles and I've always thought he'd make a cracking chaser... We discovered he had an atrial fibrillation.'

'There are a couple of ways of sorting it out and hopefully our vet and team can manage it. He's very much a work in progress and has a lot more to offer...'

IMHO connections wouldn't enter such a competitive race as this if they weren't confident the issues had been sorted.

GeeDee said...

In the event...

Elixir De Nutz was a non-runner in the Supreme.

Lake View Lad (25/1) raced prominently in the Ultima and stayed on strongly up the hill to claim third behind Beware the Bear (10/1) and, in the same Trevor Hemmings ownership, Vintage Clouds (16/1).