Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Cheltenham Festival 2019 - Thursday

There has to be a certain irony in the way Cheltenham racecourse officials talked to customers about how 'notoriously difficult' it is to predict wind gust speeds ahead of Wednesday's card threatened by advancing Storm Gareth, yet those same officials made no mention whatsoever to customers of the difficulty factor involved in picking the winners of the seven races on the day's card. 

For starters, I've had a look at the JLT Novices' Chase (1.30) and the Ryanair Chase (2.50). To my mind the better value lies in the Ryanair but the staff at the Racing Post Weekender appear to have pinched all my best ideas - honest - and, at the same time, have also decided to increase the price they're going to charge me for them.

Course and distance winner Frodon is clear of his rivals on Racing Post ratings yet at the time of writing Paul Nicholls' charge is fifth in the betting behind four Irish-trained runners:

180 Frodon (15/2 in places)
178 Balko Des Flos (16/1) 
178 Un De Sceau (9/2)
176 Footpad (4/1)
174 Road To Respect (5/1)
171 Monalee (9/2)
170 Aso (40/1)

Footpad has yet to prove he stays this trip and the going on the new course is currently soft; Monalee finished second in the RSA last year; Un De Sceaux is 11 years old now; and Road To Respect is better known as a three miler. Last year's winner Balko Des Flos (beat Un De Sceaux four and a half lengths) hasn't been in the same form since but is still given every respect with ground conditions to suit.

Of course, a number in the field like to race prominently and that could set the race up for those in behind...     

Aso finished third in this two years ago and is forgiven his last run behind Cyrname at Ascot; having previously won over course and distance, he appeals as an each-way outsider who should appreciate underfoot conditions.

Two selections for the Ryanair:
Frodon win 15/2 (Paddy Power)
Aso each-way 33/1 Bet Victor 4 places, one fifth odds.

Regular readers will know I'm a Paisley Park fan but I'd venture the Stayers' Hurdle (3.30) is more open than the market would have us believe and there are some each-way opportunities.

Last year Penhill beat Supasundae two lengths with Sam Spinner fifth and Barcardys falling. 2017 Coral Cup winner Supasundae is admirably consistent but has never won beyond the distance of the Coral Cup - handler Jessica Harrington indicates in the Weekender his ideal trip is 2m 4f.

Faugheen, a veteran now, is the joker in the pack; Willie Mullins' inmate beat Penhill 13 lengths at Punchestown last April. Only one eleven-year-old has come home in front since 1972 - the Fulke Walwyn trained Crimson Embers in 1986.  

The Cleeve is a key piece of form - Paisley Park beat West Approach 12 lengths with Black Op third, Sam Spinner fourth and Wholestone ninth. Simon Rowlands' sectional anaylsis of the race makes interesting reading and highlights Black Op's chance, currently 12/1 with Bet Victor.

Connections have indicated they may try different tactics with West Approach (25/1).

Last year Sam Spinner was sent off 9/4 favourite for this race yet 12 months on he's rated a 50/1 chance. The gelding hasn't had the best of seasons but he showed a revival of sorts in the Cleeve and has ground conditions to suit. Pilot Joe Colliver has re-arranged a mandatory visit to the magistrates' court on a drink-drive related matter so I'd like to think both horse and jockey can put their troubles to one side and turn in a good performance.     
 
At the time of writing  Bet Victor, Betfred, Betway and Totesport pay one fifth the odds four places. For those of a conservative disposition, Black Op (12/1 Bet Victor) represents the more solid proposition but, hell, it's the Festival - I'm going to keep the faith and will take an each-way interest in Sam Spinner (40/1 Betway).

I saw the black cat again this morning. Damned creature just clean stared me out. Reminded me of a friend's cat when we were kids - they called him Carpenter as he kept on doing odd jobs around the house.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Two "Points Of Order" to start with [Cheltenham related not BREXIT!]

1. The going on the New course as of 17:12 is Good to Soft (Soft in places). A small amount of rain is forecast overnight but the drying winds continue and it looks like the remainder on the meeting will be ran on ground very close to Good to Soft.
2. Prices used for my Thursday selections were those struck earlier this afternoon so apologies if this looks like after-timing.

Two good efforts from your selections today with Brewin'Upastorm and Sceau Royal (for just a second jumping the last I thought he had it....)

TW Day 1 +1.90 PTS
TW Day 2 -3.00 PTS

TW Meeting -1.10PTS

Day 3

1:30 JLT Novices' Chase

RTG Horse
177 VINNDICATION(IRE)
175 DEFI DU SEUIL(FR)
174 LOSTINTRANSLATION(IRE)
173 REAL STEEL(FR)
172 CASTAFIORE(USA)
171 VOIX DU REVE(FR)

This Looks a more competitive renewal than the market might suggest. Vindication is the least exposed of these; whilst he has over 3L to find with Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation and there is an opinion that he might be better right handed and/or over further he perhaps can get involved in the finish and represents a sporting chance at 9/1.

1PT Win Vindication 9/1

2:10 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

RTG Horse
165 A TOI PHIL(FR)
162 ABOLITIONIST(IRE)
161 FIRST ASSIGNMENT(IRE)
161 NOT MANY LEFT(IRE)
160 CUNEO(FR)
160 BOYHOOD(IRE)

Ultra competitive but I'll throw a dart at Boyhood. He won over course and distance a year gone January and then was not seen until making his seasonal debut again over course and distance when beaten 9L by First Assignment, he lacked race fitness that day and is 12lb better of with that rival in this so I'm hopeful he can get closer. He then ran in a qualifier at Exter won by Flemcara (4lbs worse off today), so overall it looks like a nice preparation for this race and Ladbrokes/Corals look out of line offering an early 25/1.

1/2PT EW Boyhood 25/1 4 places 1/4 odds [early price taken and this has now shortened to 20/1]

4:50 National Hunt Breeders Supported By Tattersalls Mares' Novices' Hurdle

RTG Horse
165 INDEFATIGABLE(IRE)
160 EPATANTE(FR)
156 QUEENOHEARTS(IRE)
155 SINORIA(IRE)
155 ELUSIVE BELLE(IRE)
153 POSH TRISH(IRE)

Whilst there is likely to be one of more future stars in this race Indefatigable has been brought along nicely and it may be worth taking a chance that she can make the frame.

1/2PT EW Indefatigable 33/1 4 places 1/5 odds

5:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase

RTG Horse
163 PERFECT CANDIDATE(IRE)
161 KILFILUM CROSS(IRE)
161 JUST A STING(IRE)
160 PEARL ROYALE(IRE)
160 SKY PIRATE(GB)
158 OUT SAM(GB)

Just A Sting looks likely to run a big race but a chance is taken on the lightly raced Kilfilum Cross. A late starter under rules he did not making his debut as a 7yo in Jan 2018, he has had 3 trainers and 7 runs since then. Promising over hurdles for Kim Bailey, showed little for Chris Kellett in 2 starts over fences but won on his debut for Henery Oliver in February at Ludlow. Whilst he needs to prove he can string two good races together this race could be ideal and 18/1 looks fair enough.

1PT EW Kilfilum Cross 18/1 5 places 1/5 odds

For interest:

Ryanair

RTG Horse
184 FRODON(FR)
182 UN DE SCEAUX(FR)
179 MONALEE(IRE)
179 ROAD TO RESPECT(IRE)
178 FOOTPAD(FR)
177 BALKO DES FLOS(FR)
175 ASO(FR)

Stayers

185 PAISLEY PARK(IRE)
179 FAUGHEEN(IRE)
176 TOP NOTCH(FR)
172 SUPASUNDAE(GB)
166 WHOLESTONE(IRE)
165 WEST APPROACH(GB)
162 THE MIGHTY DON(IRE)
166 SAM SPINNER(GB)

GeeDee said...

Thanks again for your ratings, TW, and points of order fully acknowledged.

Good luck with your selections tomorrow; in particular, I'll take a close look at Indefatigable.

Your ratings confirm Frodon as clear best-rated in the Ryanair but at the time of writing Paddy Power / Betfair still offer 15/2.

Away to catch up on the recordings now (Cheltenham, not Brexit)...

Anonymous said...

PG,

Looked again at Frodon and I've now followed you and taken 1PT win at 15/2.

I'm off to relax with a glass of malt and a review of the days skirmishes (Parliment/BREXIT, not Cheltenham)

TW

Anonymous said...

PG's Tips Blog

Two selections for the Ryanair:

Frodon win 15/2 (Paddy Power)
Aso each-way 33/1 Bet Victor 4 places, one fifth odds.

Ryanair Result

1st: Frodon (FR) 9/2
2nd: Aso (FR) 33/1
3rd: Road To Respect (IRE) 9/2

Very well done!!

GeeDee said...

TW,

Join me with a glass of your favourite malt this evening... ;)

PG

Anonymous said...

Blessed are the faithful, Sam Spinner shall repay with a 40/1 2nd in the Stayer's

Well done once again

TW

Sandracer said...

Big day for Geedee. Did you catch the forecast?

GeeDee said...

Missed it, Sandracer.
Exacta: £105.30
CSF: 143.44
Gutted.

GeeDee said...

In the event...

A thriller in the Ryanair with Frodon (9/2) and Bryony Frost coming back after the last to win from Aso (33/1); Road To Respect (9/2) claimed third.

As in the Cleeve, Paisley Park (11/8f) came from a long way off the pace to take over from Sam Spinner (33/1) just before the final flight. He fluffed his lines there but still had plenty in reserve to win comfortably from Sam Spinner in second and Faugheen (4/1) in third.