Cheltenham Festival 2019 - Friday

A good day for the blog this Thursday but tomorrow, it's another day altogether. Beware the Ides of March.

We look set for a vintage renewal of the Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.30); sixteen have been declared with the going currently described as good to soft, soft in places.

Colin Tizzard saddles three. Native River bids to become the first horse to win back-to-back renewals since Best Mate completed his hat-trick in 2004. Stablemate Thistlecrack may be eleven years old but he retains some engine; if his jumping were more proficient, he would rate a top contender. Welsh National winner Elegant Escape isn't readily dismissed either but the suspicion is, as the ground dries out, a few in the field will finish ahead of him.

Presenting Percy won last year's RSA Chase in some style (Elegant Escape third, Al Boum Photo fell) and has been at or near the top of the Gold Cup market ever since. Patrick Kelly's inmate has had just one run this season - over hurdles - but has schooled over the larger obstacles at Galway as part of his preparation. The last horse to win the Gold Cup without a prior race over fences that season was Easter Hero in 1929.

Clan Des Obeaux's victory in the King George on Boxing Day (Thistlecrack second, Native River third, Double Shuffle fifth, Might Bite seventh with Bristol De Mail falling) represents top-drawer form and marks Paul Nicholls' charge out as a serious contender. His fourth behind Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November (Native River second, Thistlecrack third, Might Bite fifth) for me just leaves a query as to how well he'll cope with the final climb up the hill of this extended three miles two and a half furlongs.  

Conversely, Bristol De Mai appears to reserve his very best form for Haydock.

Willie Mullins saddles four and Ruby Walsh rides Bellshill. Kemboy's win in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas is noteworthy (Bellshill fourth, Shattered Love tenth) but Bellshill wasn't fully wound up that day and progressed next time out to win the Irish Gold Cup by a short-head from Road To Respect (third in the Ryanair earlier today).

Might Bite's mighty duel with Native River in last year's renewal (Anibale Fly third, Definitly Red sixth) lives long in the memory. Nicky Henderson's charge hasn't been in the same form this term; connections have tried wind surgery and, if I remember correctly, the horse has undergone treatment for ulcers. 14/1 would be a very big price if Might Bite was back to his best but he has always had quirks - he nearly handed the 2017 RSA Chase to stablemate Whisper - and I suspect ideally he'd prefer slightly better ground.

The mare Shattered Love underwent wind surgery in January and the balance of her form to date suggests she isn't certain to stay this trip but Yala Enki certainly will. Venetia Williams' charge often races prominently but is likely to find a few in the field staying on a bit more quickly.

Anibale Fly finished a very creditable third in last year's renewal, making up ground at the business end of the race without ever threatening the leaders, and four weeks later he came home fourth behind Tiger Roll in the Grand National.

Last time out the JP McManus owned gelding ran a pleasing trial in the Red Mills Chase over an inadequate trip of two and a half miles, beaten two lengths by Monalee (fourth in the Ryanair earlier today).

Of the protagonists Native River would be the one for me but on the back of that effort last year Anibale Fly - with something to find on the book - makes most appeal as an each-way outsider, although drying ground isn't ideal.

At the time of writing both William Hill and Ladbrokes go 25/1 and pay one fifth the odds four places.

With Barry Geraghty up, Anibale Fly is the each-way selection.