Friday, April 21, 2017

Scottish Grand National 2017

There are thirty declared for tomorrow's Scottish Grand National (3.55 Ayr) where the going is currently described as good to soft; recent big-priced winners include Iris De Balme at 66/1 in 2008; Al Co at 40/1 in 2014 and Wayward Prince at 25/1 in 2015. Vicente won last year's renewal and tries again off exactly the same mark.

Due to circumstances entirely beyond my control, form study this week has been somewhat curtailed; I've been on the lookout for an outsider at a decent price and have come up with two possibilities...

At 50/1 Blakemount clearly fits the outsider tag and his fifth in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter five weeks ago reads well enough. Sue Smith's yard appears in decent form but jockey bookings are disconcerting; Danny Cook rides Vintage Clouds (two falls in last three runs) for owner Trevor Hemmings and Sean Quinlan is aboard Straidnahanna, suggesting Blakemount (Henry Brooke up) is considered third choice.

Dancing Shadow has been in good form this season and won the Edinburgh National Handicap Chase at Musselburgh on his penultimate start over a trip of four miles one furlong. He was raised eight pounds for that effort but was subsequently pulled up in the amateurs' four miler at the Festival. Victor Dartnall's charge has enough weight and has to put that latest effort behind him but it was 39 days ago and Hill's offer 40/1 a quarter the odds four places while Paddy Power quote a price of 33/1 and pay one fifth the odds six places.

Blakemount is the each-way suggestion at 50/1 with Paddy Power paying one fifth the odds six places.


Anonymous said...

Well done, Blakemount gave you a nice spin and hopefully you followed your advice and used Paddy Power's 6 places for a nice return!!


GeeDee said...

Blakemount (25/1) raced prominently for much of the race; he was outpaced off the final bend on the run for home but stayed on to claim a creditable sixth.

Thank you, Paddy Power, for six places but in the immediate aftermath I was obliged to confirm final placings via the web. ITV's live coverage named the first four to finish (when several layers were paying five or six places), yet commentators were making references to winning owner Trevor Hemmings also owning the fifth (Lessons In Milan, 40/1) and the seventh (Vintage Clouds, 14/1).

Nigel Twiston-Davies is likely to be cursing his luck this evening with son Sam getting last year's winner, the Paul Nicholls trained Vicente (9/1jf), up in the shadow of the post to deny his Cogry (18/1) by a neck.

"Nige" also saddled the third home, twelve-year-old Benbens, a 50/1 chance who was only beaten two and a quarter lengths. Amateur jockey Mr Z Barker, entitled to claim seven, actually carried 10-8 which included two pounds overweight...

Another twelve-year-old, Alvarado (16/1), finished fourth; the selection was beaten just under nine lengths.

Sandracer said...

Ooh 6 places came in handy there Geedee. Nice. 5/1 winner in the end ;)... Nice. My one Premier Bond might aswell not have turned up..

GeeDee said...

Just managed to hang on, Sandracer...;)

I'm in desperate need of a few more just like that after a bit of a wretched season but it's the Sandown Finale on Saturday - I appear to have run clean out of time!

Trust things are good with you.


Sandracer said...

Shoulda checked at mine yesterday GD. Coulda followed me on Sgt Bull at silly odds. Got me outta trouble I can tell you haha.. Keep your eyes peeled for out of the handicap horses backed on sundays from now on.. You'll see over time what I mean ;)

GeeDee said...

Sgt Bull Berry - excellent touch, Sandracer!
Noted - Sundays, out of the handicap horses, I'll be watching like a hawk... ;)

GeeDee said...

From the Racing Post 25.04.17:

'Coral PR director Simon Clare said: "This is the fourth biggest betting race of the year... We took more money on the Scottish National this year than the Champion Hurdle and the Stayers' Hurdle, the only other races which would threaten its position."'