Thursday, April 06, 2017

Aintree 2017 - Friday

A couple of quick suggestions for Ladies' Day...

The JLT Melling Chase (3.25) looks a hot affair.

Fox Norton just failed to catch Special Tiara in the Champion Chase 23 days ago with Top Gamble fourth, Gods Own fifth and Traffic Fluide sixth. Gods Own, very closely matched with Fox Norton on official ratings, won this last year but is one I've always struggled to catch right.

Sub Lieutenant finished one and a half lengths behind Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair 22 days ago with Josses Hill fifth and Uxizandre seventh. Alan King's charge has previously won over course and distance and reportedly did not run to his best at Cheltenham; in the Weekender the handler says:

"...when Un De Sceaux took him on it disappointed him a little bit."

He ran in cheekpieces at Cheltenham but connections re-fit the visor for this renewal.

Both Kylemore Lough and Royal Regatta come here fresh.

Following an injury Traffic Fluide has been on the comeback trail this year; he was beaten just a neck by Gods Own in the Champion Chase and may have reversed placings had he jumped the last slightly better.

Paddy Power stand out from the crowd offering 25/1 at the time of writing; Traffic Fluide is the suggested each-way play.

In the Crabbie's Top Novices' Hurdle at 2.20 I'm hoping Malcolm Jefferson's Mount Mews can record a win for the north; market rivals River Wylde finished third in the Supreme behind Labaik while Moon Racer was pulled up in the Champion Hurdle after a mistake four from home. Jefferson won the Red Rum Handicap Chase earlier today with Double W's.

Finally the opener looks an absolute minefield and I haven't done the form so can't recommend a wager but I like Bigmartre and will monitor his performance. The stable was in indifferent form earlier in the season and is now slowly coming back. He ran well for a long way in the Imperial Cup; Harry Bannister claims three and a couple of layers price him 28/1 this evening.      


Anonymous said...

The JLT Melling Chase does look an open affair and you may have found a bit of value in the early 25/1 about Traffic Fluide but on the whole I feel the layers have this about right. Uxizandre is the difficult one, did he bounce at Cheltenham or is he simply not the horse he was? Today will tell us more.

I’m a big fan of Malcolm Jefferson so I’d like him – and the North – to have another winner. But after further analysis the 14/1 about Alan King’s The Unit proved too tempting. I feel his form this season is easily a match of those at the front of the market and probably his best effort came in defeat when splitting Air Horse One (now rated 141) and Dolos whilst giving weight to both. The step back to 2M might be against him but I’m more of the opinion that he is a horse that has found his feet and is still improving.

I’ve skipped the opener as well but I’m hoping Harry Banister’s claim comes in useful in the Topham aboard 66/1 shot Gowanauthat. He looked an improved horse when switched to summer jumping on decent ground and rose over 35lbs in the handicap after a good winning run. He disappointed a bit in his last run in October but the ground had changed and he was put away for the winter. Fanciful to think that this has been the target since then but he has won fresh, scrapes in 1lb out of the handicap (covered by Harry’s claim). Of course, there are concerns, will he handle the National fences, has the ground dried enough, but on balance 66/1 might look huge if he can pick up where he left off last term.

Good Luck!


Anonymous said...

Pingshou stole a march 2 out and probably the race, Mount Mews ran very well and was possibly the best horse in the race. The Unit ran O.K to finish 3rd without ever looking like winning.

Traffic Fluide looked one of the first beaten but stayed on well to take 3rd place and make it a winning day for the blog.

Well done.


GeeDee said...

Pleased to see The Unit make a place, TW; I called it wrong again... ;)