Friday, March 27, 2015

National considerations

We're two weeks away from A.P. McCoy's final Grand National.

Whatever happens, one thing is for certain - his mount in the race will be significantly overbet. If he were to pass the post in front, he's likely to retire on the spot.

Earlier in the week a colleague mailed me an article entitled 'Small data: how much would you have won backing McCoy?'

You won't be surprised to learn that a £1.00 level stakes investment on all his rides since January 2nd 2000 returns a deficit of £1744.75. Respectfully I pointed out to my colleague that over a similar period I developed any number of far more sophisticated approaches to giving away money to bookmakers.

A report in The Times today focuses on another jockey likely to generate publicity in the forthcoming fortnight; Sean Bowen bids to become the first 17 year old to win the race since Bruce Hobbs rode Battleship to victory in 1938.

Bowen is set to partner Mon Parrain for Paul Nicholls in the showpiece but still has to ride one more chase winner (10 required) before satisfying the stringent eligibility criteria established for the race.

Tomorrow he's aboard  Edmund Kean for father Peter in Stratford's snappily-entitled Bordeaux Undiscovered La Fleur Morange Handicap Chase. Having failed to complete on both runs this season, Edmund doesn't look to hold the most obvious chance in Bowen's search to qualify.

I need to do some more work on the National entries in the coming week; as regular readers know to their cost, I tend to favour horses that have previously shown form over the unique fences.

That said, I'll pass on the one tip I've received to date.

A respected form student is keen on the chance of Jim Culloty's Spring Heeled. Last year this one won the Kim Muir at the Festival, finished fifth in the Whitbread and was just pipped for third in the Galway Plate behind Road To Riches (third in this year's Gold Cup).

The National has been the target all along - stable form is the concern.

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