Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Cheltenham Festival 2015 - Wednesday

Is Sprinter Sacre the horse he used to be?

Probably not is the answer coming out of Nicky Henderson's yard...

Of course, Sprinter wouldn't need to be at his absolute best to win this year's renewal of the Queen Mother Champion Chase but the air of circumspection from connections together with the fact he's priced up at 7/2 is enough to put me off.

We haven't seen an awful lot of the horse since he was pulled up in Kempton's Desert Orchid Chase in December 2013 but following a racecourse gallop at Newbury and his return at Ascot this January (a race after which he bled), the jumping hasn't appeared totally convincing.

Last year's winner Sire De Grugy has had his problems as well, falling in Mr Mole's race at Newbury on his return from injury before winning well at Chepstow 18 days ago.

Dodging Bullets is the season's form two-miler but trainer Paul Nicholls states:

"Dodging Bullets likes soft ground and I would not want it to dry up too much. He is a real staying two-miler."

Mr Mole is talented but quirky while Champagne Fever has enough to find on official ratings; Sire De Grugy is the selection. 

Like many, I was keen on Coneygree's chance in the RSA (2.05) but connections have opted for the Gold Cup instead; Coneygree is particularly fragile and the forecast rain before Friday's race is the reason behind the decision.

The RSA can be a brutal race; Don Poli is favourite and the most likely winner but I won't get involved.

I looked at David Pipe's King's Palace but this one, carrying my money, disappointed badly in last year's Albert Bartlett and his jumping in the two-runner Denman Chase at Newbury last month was far from perfect. He will appreciate better ground

McCoy rides If In Doubt who won the Skybet Chase at Doncaster the last day; those who saw that race and McCoy's post-race interview will be wary about backing the partnership here.

I was impressed with Ordo Ab Chao who won over course and distance the last day - he runs in the opening Neptune at 1.30 but the drying ground will have scuppered his chance. Two ex-Flat types are prominent in the betting - Nichols Canyon and Parlour Games - but a Flat horse hasn't won this race since No Refuge in 2005.  

Dan Skelton rates Zarib his best chance of the whole meeting so is the each-way selection for the difficult-looking Fred Winter at 4.40.

I  always like to select a couple in the bumper, just for the sheer hell of it. Years ago my wife picked Hairy Molly (won 33/1) but I forgot to put the bet on and in 2010 I tipped Cue Card (won 40/1) to a friend but never had a penny on myself.

This year, the Mullins' battalions aside, David Pipe saddles Moon Racer who cost £225,000 while Dermot Weld's Vigil returns for another stab having finished fifth last year, beaten four and a half lengths. Wait For Me from Philip Hobbs' yard is another intriguing runner.

Paddy Power offer 11/1 about Vigil; at those odds the gelding rates a sporting each-way wager.     

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

The Champion Chase went the way of the form two-mile chaser, Dodging Bullets(9/2) collecting from 33/1 shot Somersby. Sire De Grugy (5/2) struggled to go with the leaders two out, finishing fourth; 9/4 favourite Sprinter Sacre was pulled up before the last.

Zarib (8/1) put in a decent effort in the Fred Winter, leading briefly before the last but the youngster was unable to sustain his effort finishing out of the places in sixth.

Vigil (8/1) finished fifth in the bumper for the second year running, the spoils going to David Pipe's 9/2 favourite Moon Racer.