World Cup wagers - update

Following on from my last post, with all the group stage matches now completed, I have been asked to provide updated figures for the predictions made by Nicolas Scelles and his research team at the University of Stirling.


So, here goes...


The correct score prices quoted were the best available as shown on the Oddschecker site on Wednesday-Thursday 11-12 June, before a ball had been kicked in the competition.


Interestingly, in the correct score markets Ladbrokes were best or joint-best priced on 31 of the 48 matches (64.58%) while BetVictor were best or joint-best priced on 12 of the 48 matches (25%).


Six correct scorelines were predicted from the 48 group games as shown below:

Chile 3 Australia 1 - 15/1 BetVictor

Ivory Coast 2 Japan 1 - 11/1 Ladbrokes

Argentina 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 17/2 Ladbrokes

Ghana 1 USA 2 - 12/1 Ladbrokes

Australia 0 Spain 3 - 13/2 Paddy Power

Portugal 2 Ghana 1 - 8/1 Ladbrokes / BetVictor

Figures to nominal £1 bet per match:

Win strike-rate:  6/48 - 12.5%

Outlay: £48.00

Return: £67.00

Profit: £19.00

Profit as % of turnover: 39.58%