Friday, August 17, 2007

Bangor On Dee selections

Last night I started to look at obtaining value by opposing Turbo Linn in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury, only to discover she won't run as she's in season. So I decided to go to Bangor instead.

The betterbetcorbett Dee Hurdle (4.00) looks very competitive and strikingly similar to the totepsort Summer Hurdle run at Market Rasen a month ago, with Ellerslie Tom, Capitana, Norma Hill, Prince Ary and Dishdasha all taking their chance to reoppose. On the bare form of that race, which was run on soft / heavy ground, there's little to choose between Prince Ary, Ellerslie Tom and Dishdasha, with Ellerslie Tom looking unlucky to be collared close home. The going at Bangor is currently good to firm, good in places, but tomorrow's weather forecast doesn't look promising - will enough rain fall to affect the going? I take the view that Ellerslie Tom's last effort indicates he's back in form and, if the rains stay away, he will have a chance even though burdened with top weight.

Dishdasha has been pulled up at Newton Abbot since but Nicky Henderson's Capitana ran well for a long way on the unsuitable ground at Market Rasen. The tissue price for this mare is 10/1 which looks fair each way value provided the going doesn't deteriorate. Norma Hill is a risky proposition at the best of times and not easy to catch right; however she possesses plenty of speed on faster ground, has won over course and distance and could provide some each way value for the more adventurous amongst you.

I take Mud Monkey to open his account in the first (2.15) whilst over at Market Rasen's evening meeting Vaughan will be fancied to win the novice chase at 7.10.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Those of you prepared to take on the risk were well rewarded with Norma Hill winning a competitive looking hurdle by an easy six lengths at odds of 20/1. Heaven knows what the handicapper will do now. Capitana, sent off at 15/2, appeared to have every chance two out but faded a little disappointingly to finish fifth; I thought we'd see more improvemnet in this horse on better ground. The Summer Hurdle form stood up reasonably well with Ellerslie Tom and Dishdasha finishing third and fourth respectively.
4/5 favourite Mud Monkey obliged in the opener but over at Market Rasen even money favourite Vaughan was hamepered at the second fence and fell.