Cheltenham Festival 2010 - Thursday

I'm a little pressed for time, so just a couple of selections for Thursday's card...

The feature is the World Hurdle at 3.20 in which 14 go to post. Paul Nicholls' Big Buck's won this last year and will start long odds-on. Whilst acknowledging he's supremely talented, I should point out that he's not entirely straightforward and is often described as something of a character; for that reason alone I couldn't entertain taking such a short price. Last year he was tried initially over fences but it was the return to hurdling that made him; this year Tidal Bay could be placed in the same category after his impressive win in the Cleeve six and a half weeks ago. TB has the look of an each-way bet to nothing as does Karabak, although it's interesting to note that the latter's trainer Alan King has sounded far more bullish about Katchit's prospects, that one apparently having really come to himself in the last fortnight. This evening Coral bet 22/1 Katchit while William Hill go 12s. Katchit each-way is very tempting but on official ratings he has twelve pounds to find with his stablemate so I'll back Karabak each-way against the favourite at around 8/1. I note that Coral go 80/1 Cape Tribulation which looks big for a horse that has some smart form to his name including fifth in last year's Albert Bartlett behind Weapon's Amnesty (won the RSA earlier today) and second behind Zaynar in the Relkeel. He has won over this trip but has been running over two miles recently - at the price I might have a small place bet.

It looks a classy renewal of the Ryanair at 2.40. Alan King's Voy Por Ustedes was odds-on for this last year - he finished second to Imperial Commander after a bad mistake four out - yet this year he's 16/1! Admittedly he has been a little hit and miss of late but that still looks decent each-way value. Albertas Run is another who could run well at a price - I always feel the key to this horse is good ground and he'll get that tomorrow. Deep Purple is bang there on ratings and has been given plenty of time to recover after breaking a blood vessel in the King George over Christmas. Since its inception in 2005 the winner has come from the first three in the market and on that basis it looks between Poquelin, Tranquil Sea and Barbers Shop. On official ratings Poquelin has at least four pounds in hand over his market rivals so he gets the vote.

Cheltenham selections tomorrow

Franchoek has been described as 'the next Katchit' and is the current ante-post favourite for the Triumph hurdle in March; he's the one they all have to beat in the opener at 12.20.

The eight contestants in the Relkeel hurdle look pretty closely matched; a number of the runners are not guaranteed to stay the extended two mile five furlong trip. Pouvoir seems to have developed a habit of getting himself beaten while, at the weights, Liberate is in with a shout if he lasts home. The original selection was Charlie Mann's course and distance winner My Turn Now but my enthusiasm is tempered by the fact the stable haven't had a winner in the past fortnight. I'll take a chance with Paul Nicholls' Gwanako.

Clear top rated animal in the 2.05 is Howard Johnson's Tidal Bay; the word is that Nicky Henderson's Duc de Regniere is the horse Mick Fitzgerald has postponed his retirement to ride. The Henderson stable has been going through a quiet spell; this race will prove useful for future reference.

The Boylesports.com Gold Cup looks extremely competitive. The best value I've seen in this is Venetia Williams' Idole First priced up at 20/1 with totesport; that's worth an each way interest as IF beat Palarshan (currently around 8/1) on similar terms over course and distance last March. Dangers abound, with likely favourite New Little Bric feared most.

In the International at 3.10 John Carr has said current champion Sublimity is not fully wound up. I'm concentrating on Afsoun, Katchit and Mac's Joy. In my mind's eye I can see Katchit getting swamped just after the last in the Fighting Fifth a couple of weeks ago. In contrast Afsoun looked the winner at Ascot last time but was outfought by Hardy Eustace over a distance the yard feel doesn't suit. Mac's Joy should have a shout at the weights but I'm siding with Afsoun.

Cheltenham - Saturday's Boylesports meeting

Unsurprisingly Imperial Commander is favourite for the day's feature race, the Boylesports Gold Cup, on the back of his impressive victory in the Paddy Power Gold Cup over course and distance a month ago. The Twiston-Davies inmate is my idea of the winner but everybody else has the same idea with the result he's no real value in the market. Some commentators oppose with Silverburn but, as I've said before on this blog, I'm not particularly keen - he has disappointed on a number of occasions so, in search of some value, I'll chance Tom Taaffe's Finger Onthe Pulse who's priced up at around 7/1.

From a betting point of view the International at 3.05 is much more interesting. Current champion hurdle favourite Binocular heads this market but there are some classy opponents in the field including the current champion hurdler. In the past ten renewals the jolly has won five times but on the other occasions a relatively unfancied horse has taken the prize; I remember backing Geos at 14/1 to win this when it was known as the Bula. The game mare Chomba Womba beat Crack Away Jack last time out at Ascot and the pair reoppose on similar terms here; on balance I think Crack Away Jack will reverse the form and that view is taken by the bookies who make the chestnut gelding a 4/1 shot while the mare is 6/1. Those who have opposed Katchit this season have be on good terms with themselves but trainer Alan King issued an upbeat update during the week with the result that the champion's price for this has shortened to 9/2 in places. At the time of writing Hills still go 5/1 Katchit - at that price he has to be worth an interest.

Anyone who saw Punchestowns win here last month will know why the horse is set to be sent off a short-priced favourite for the Relkeel Hurdle at 1.20. Having said that, I'm going to take a chance with Peter Bowen's Serabad. This horse won at Aintree three weeks ago when thought to be in need of the run. The trainer reports his charge has made plenty of improvement since but, using official ratings as a guide, he will need every ounce of that improvement to be competitive against this favourite. The softer the ground, the better it will suit the selection.

On official ratings Starluck is the one to beat in the opener while the finale appears between Massasoit and Diamond Harry. Both horses have yet to race over three miles in public; Massasoit is top-rated and gets the vote.

Addendum - I've just noticed that Henry Daly runs Pop in the 12.30 at Doncaster. Last time out this horse was in the process of giving Shining Gale a run for his money in a beginners' chase at Ludlow when coming to grief four out. Since then Shining Gale has gone on to win a Class 2 novice chase at Cheltenham by over twenty lengths. If his price is in double figures tomorrow morning, I'll consider an each-way interest.

The intray

This weekend I couldn't help but spare a thought for Eddie Ahern. After finishing second on the appropriately named Times Up in the 2.00 race at Newmarket on Friday, Eddie left the weighing room and went for a bit of a walkabout. When he returned, he found he'd missed the deadline to weigh out on his next intended mount, Charlie Farnsbarns in the 3.10. Able deputy Ryan Moore guided the 50/1 outsider to a one and half length victory over 5/2 favourite Bankable. Poor old Eddie! Instead of collecting his share of the £36,000 win prize money, he was served with a £140 fine. Still, things looked a little better on Saturday afternoon when he took the mount on another 50/1 shot, Caracciola. Caracciola won the Cesarewitch by three lengths.

Snap Tie turned over champion hurdler Katchit at Kempton on Sunday. After the race Katchit's trainer Alan King said he was disappointed (with the result) but satisfied (with the performance).

Sticking with Alan King, in a recent stable tour feature he indicated there are plans to race Franchoek over further (than two miles) in the coming season. The trainer feels the horse could make up into a World Hurdle contender.

Tomorrow Exeter hosts the inaugral running of the Best Mate Beginners' Chase at 3.10. The race has attracted some interesting entries including Straw Bear, Pasco, Or Bleu and Sir Harry Ormesher. I had planned to go to Ludlow on Thursday as I haven't been there for a few years but unfortunately something has turned up and I can't make it - the bookmakers will have to get their dinner money from somebody else. A course I've never visited is Hexham but a few friends made it up there a week last Saturday. They didn't leave the course 'with a carrier bag of bookies' loot', but they felt the course was small, friendly with good viewing, although there were no large screens in place. The course is situated on a hill - the weather was sunny but the wind chilling. Entrance into the parade ring and the stables was included in the £10 admission price. I think I'll try and make the effort to get up there sometime in the foreseeable future.

Finally, I have been reminded that it was Robbie Box (not Fox) that featured in the BBC series 'Big Deal'. Should you wish, you can buy the complete Series 1 from Amazon for just £17.98. Hmmm... think I'll give that one a miss.

Weekend highlights

New Approach tries for his third Group 1 win of the season in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket tomorrow but I won't be tempted into getting invovled. Last time out the Derby winner had to be kept up to his work to fend off Traffic Guard half a length; my guess is more will be required here and he could be vulnerable.

Invariably you can find a few jumpers in a Cesarewitch field and this year is no exception. On June's Ascot Stakes' form there's nothing between Missoula, Mamlook and Liberate. Although Missoula won the race, you could take the view that Mamlook would have collected the spoils with a clear run. While Missoula has been busy since, the other two come to this fresh. The Pipe yard hasn't really hit form this season so I'm going to have a small each-way interest in Philip Hobbs' Liberate who wears cheek pieces for the first time which, I hope, will help him concentrate that little bit more in the closing stages of the race. Jamie Spencer takes the ride.

Cheltenham's first Saturday card of the new season serves up some competitive-looking fare. In the feature handicap chase at 3.25 Ouzbeck is worth a mention but this looks a stiff task for a novice, particularly one who unseated his rider last time out. A number make their seasonal debuts but I'm siding with Lord Ryeford who has decent form this summer; the going and the trip are right up his street.

No selection for the Mick Fitzgerald Novices' Hurdle run thirty five minutes later but this race will be worth noting for future reference. Incidentally Mick's autobiography, entitled 'Better Than Sex', is now available from all good bookstores; quite a catchy title - I reckon it could be a bestseller!

Kempton hosts a fine card on Sunday, the highlight being the return of champion hurdler Katchit in the 4.35. A recorded interview with Katchit's trainer, Alan King, has been available on the Racing Post site over the last few days. By my calculations it was filmed roughly a fortnight ago; in it the trainer comments that his charge has 'thickened out' but is 20 kilos above his racing weight of last season. Teletext report today that the horse is expected to 'come on for the run'. That being the case, I won't be in a rush to take a short price about the champ; two to consider as plays against him are Snap Tie and Katies Tuitor.

In the same video, Mr. King is quite bullish about Greenbridge who runs in the 2.50. Greenbridge has schooled very well and the trainer admits that he's 'excited about him'. I'll take the hint, although he won't have it all his own way with Paul Nicholls' I'msingingtheblues also in the line-up.

Top-rated horse Woolcombe Folly looks the answer to the 3.25.

Provided the prices aren't too short, two other King inmates I'll consider on the card are Saticon in the opener and Nikos Extra in the 5.05.

Aintree selections - Thursday

This Aintree meeting always presents a bit of a conundrum. Four weeks have passed since the Cheltenham Festival (most years it's only three). To what extent can we expect Cheltenham form to be repeated? Will the main protagonists have had time to recover from their exertions last month? Add to that the fact that the courses are markedly different and you have a number of unknowns to throw into the melting pot.

In the 3.10 I'm sticking with Katchit. This might be one trip to the well too many, but I'm prepared to take the risk following his impressive win in the Triumph Hurdle. Liberate, who finished second to Katchit at Cheltenham, is the top rated horse on both Racing Post ratings and official handicap ratings in the 4.55. He's the selection in that race; the quicker ground should suit.

The first race at 2.00 has six runners and looks a rerun of the World Hurdle in which Black Jack Ketchum fell early on. On decent ground I predict Black Jack Ketchum, with McCoy on board, will win but he's not a horse I'd take a short a price about.

The Betfair Bowl at 2.35 only has five runners but looks trappy. Turpin Green has run well at this course in the past and, following his decent third in the Gold Cup, could spring a surprise.

Ascot on Saturday

Following the midweek decision to re-schedule the Boylesports International to a card that already boasts the Long Walk Hurdle and the Ladbroke, a spokesman was quoted as saying, in typically understated fashion, that this was 'probably the greatest day's hurdling ever seen'.

Your view on the Long Walk will depend on your interpretation of the Long Distance Hurdle ran at Newbury three weeks ago. To my mind, the race was run at a muddling pace and things looked to fall just right for Duke De Regniere; on the walk back to the winners' enclosure that day, McCoy practically said as much in a TV interview. McCoy retains the ride tomorrow and perhaps surprisingly the horse is pushing for favouritism. Those behind who are likely to fancy their chances tomorrow include Mobaasher, Pettifour, Blazing Bailey and Hills Of Aran. After looking through the form earlier in the week, I'm convinced Mobaasher isn't the easiest ride while the top-rated Blazing Bailey often throws in a poor jump - his effort at the penultimate flight at Newbury probably put paid to his chance. In addition there's some discussion as to whether blinkers have helped in the past - they're been left off here. Hills Of Aran is 66/1 in places which is big - the horse has an each-way squeak in my book. Both Serabad and Punchestowns, who won with any amount in hand last time at Cheltenham, may have difficulty with this trip. I prefer something I know will stay and so side with Twiston-Davies' charge Pettifour. I like this horse and the trainer has been quite bullish in the build-up. Whatever happens, we should have a race to remember.

Only five in the re-arranged International and it could turn into a tactical affair; Celestial Halo likes to race prominently. Using official handicap ratings as a guide, Katchit is the one they have to beat while there doesn't look much between Chomba Womba and Crack Away Jack. I would have preferred the race to have been at Cheltenham for Katchit but at around 9/2 the current champion hurdler looks value against the current champion hurdle favourite Binocular.

A token each-way selection at a price for the Ladbroke - Irish Legend has a racing weight and comes to this in good form.

The final countdown...

Channel Four's racing coverage on Saturday was liberally interspersed with visits to Cheltenham and impromptu weather forecasts. At present the going on both courses is described as good to soft, good in places but a significant amount of rain is expected Monday evening / early Tuesday morning. If the rain arrives, the going on the first day could well be changed to soft. The advice from most pundits is if you haven't had a bet yet, you're better off waiting till the day.

A couple of weeks back I put up a few Festival fancies, so I thought it only fair to give an update in light of recent developments and the fact that rain is expected.

Arkle: Kalahari King is unlikely to get his ground and is discounted. Forpadydeplasterer will but this year's Arkle is looking increasingly hard to call.
Champion Hurdle: Binocular looks the class act. About two weeks ago Nicky Henderson indicated his charge had been held up in his work by the cold snap. Since then the trainer has said he has the horse where he wants him. As an each-way play against the favourite I don't think there's much between Osana and Celestial Halo - I'll stick with Osana. Connections have toyed with fitting blinkers to Katchit but decided against. In yesterday's Racing Post David Ashworth, reporting from a Festival preview evening in London , quoted Choc Thornton: "...it will be a minor miracle if Katchit is in the first four..."
Champion Chase: Still think Briareus each-way will be my bet on the day.
RSA Chase: I'm dithering about What A Friend. Ruby has chosen Cooldine - another quote at the aforementioned Festival preview evening, this time from John Francome: "Ruby Walsh told me that Cooldine was a much better horse than What A Friend."
World Hurdle: Kasbah Bliss looks solid; Punchestowns and/or Big Buck's appear, to use a phrase I've heard several times this weekend, 'an each-way bet to nothing'.
Triumph Hurdle: Still like Starluck and Walkon with preference for the former.
Gold Cup: Haven't hedged with Neptune and at this stage not in a rush to do so.

A couple more Festival snippets for you... Paddy Power will return losing win and each-way singles on the opening race if Cousin Vinny collects the spoils; I haven't done the work on that race but Torphichen is worth a second look. A lot of the value has been snapped up about Whiteoak in the Champion after the horse was recommended on a telephone tipster line. I'm still half tempted by Ladbrokes 20/1; a mare hasn't won the Champion Hurdle for fifteen years - Flakey Dove in 1994. If ever you were in doubt that the Festival was about selling, then a look at The Festival magazine (sent out free to ticketholders and given away with today's RP) should put your mind at rest...

Back to Sandown on Saturday... The phrase 'our very own' was used any number of times to describe Channel Four presenter Jim McGrath whose Fresh Air Amd Fun took the three mile handicap chase. The irony in it all was that winning jockey Tony McCoy had 'Timeform' emblazoned prominently on his silks yet Jim McGrath took the decision to leave the organisation at the beginning of the year.

Finally, a few football facts to finish off with. The Damned United is set to go on general release at cinemas on March 27th; the film, based on David Peace's novel, tells of Brian Clough's forty four day reign as manager of Leeds United. Son Nigel, currently manager at Derby County, won't be attending the premiere - Saturday's Times quotes Nigel as saying 'I don't want to see the film.' Fair enough. Last week Glasgow Celtic stuck seven past hapless St Mirren in the Scottish Premier League so the 8/1 bookmakers offered about St Mirren taking their revenge a week later didn't look particularly generous. The St Mirren players had different ideas though and upset the odds by beating the current champions 1-0 in the Scottish Cup. Football, eh? To conclude, here's a snip from Paul Merson's sixty second interiew in Saturday's Times:
'What's the most expensive thing you've bought?
A £50,000 straight forecast on the horses. It didn't come in.'

Chepstow's first meeting

Over the years tomorrow's Chepstow card has come to be seen by many traditionalists as the first meeeting 'proper' of the new National Hunt season. A few years ago Philip Hobbs was a trainer to note here but in more recent times Paul Nicholls has used the meeting to set down a marker. Of course, the world and his wife is now fully aware of the above - a while back I set about trying to exploit this fact by opposing fancied runners from the Nicholls stable, the theory being that the yard may not be quite in full swing and many of the horses not 'cherry ripe'.

This approach hasn't really been that successful - here's a quick summary of how Nicholls-trained horses ridden by Ruby Walsh have fared at this meet over the past four years:

2009
Tito Bustillo won 11/8f
The Gossmoor Yank third 11/4f
Gullible Gordon won 4/6f
Tot Of The Knar third 100/30
Classic Swain second 7/2jf
Murrell second 8/11f

2008
Five Dream fourth 7/2 2f
Herecomesthetruth won 10/11f
Bold Policy fifth 4/1 2f
R Rien De Sivola won 8/1
Tchico Polos won 5/2 2f
Tataniano won evens fav

2007
Natal UR 100/30f
Gwanako won 6/1 2f
Petit Lord won 6/5f
Qrackers second 5/1 (beaten by 4/11f Franchoek)
Pertinent F 4/1 2f
Hercomesthetruth fifth 7/4f

2006
Bold Fire tenth 9/2
East Lawyer PU 8/1
Hot N Holy won 9/4f
Chaninbar second 5/1 2f (beaten by 4/11f Katchit)
Armariver second 3/1 2f (beaten by 4/11f Massini's Maguire)
Earth Planet won 11/4 2f

Those looking for value should note that the Nicholls runner has won the past four runnings of the 3.25.

I intend to oppose Escort'men in tomorrow's 4.00 race. This horse won the Dovecote at Kempton in impressive style last February but his subsequent effort at Aintree was disappointing; I'm not certain whether he's better going right-handed or whether he can handle an undulating track - certainly his hold-up style of racing won't be suited to Chepstow. Having said all that, I should point out Nick Mordin rates Escort'men 'a Champion hurdle prospect'. I'll take a chance with Tom George's course and distance winner Olofi who won the juvenile hurdle at this meet last year.

Gullible Gordon will be popular in the 5.10 but this is a competitive handicap. Twiston-Davies has his team in fine form (9 wins from 32 runs in past fortnight) so last year's winner Beat The Boys isn't lightly dismissed. Le Beau Bai is interesting, especially with a seven pound claimer up. Connections are likely to be aiming for another stab at the Welsh National but I'm tempted to take fitness on trust and have a wager on Richard Lee's Le Beau Bai.

In the opener I'll monitor the market to decide whether Alan King's Groove Master is a play against the Nicholls favourite Domtaline (third in the Prix Wild at Auteuil, a race that historically throws up plenty of future winners according to the Weekender) while in the concluding bumper Kartanian is likely to have his work cut out giving seven pounds to Merehead.

Over at Bangor the 5.15 looks a hot novice for the time of year. Henry Daly's Wessex King was withdrawn at Uttoxeter on Sunday presumably on account of the heavy ground. The going may be more to his liking here but the opposition is far stiffer; the race should provide some valuable pointers for the weeks ahead.

Cheltenham Festival 2014 - Tuesday

The highlight on the opening day is a vintage renewal of the Champion Hurdle (3.20).

On official ratings Hurricane Fly has six pounds in hand over his nearest rivals. He bids to become the first ten-year-old to win since Sea Pigeon in 1980; conversely, there are relatively few miles on the clock and many will be tempted by 3/1 available in several places. The New One was beaten by My Tent Or Yours at Kempton the last day; Cheltenham's stiff uphill finish will play to his strengths but he hasn't always been the most circumspect at his hurdles. Our Conor won last year's Triumph by a staggering 15 lengths but in the past this has proved difficult for five-year-olds with just two wins recorded since 1970 - Night Nurse (1976) and Katchit (2008). My Tent Or Yours is one of three J.P. McManus owned runners - Captain Cee Bee has been supplemented and looks likely to act as pacemaker. My Tent was beaten half a length by Champagne Fever in the Supreme last year and of the principals is the only one not to have won at the course previously. A close call, as indicated by Timeform's ratings...

For me, it's between Hurricane Fly and My Tent Or Yours; I'll side with My Tent Or Yours.

The Irish boast a good record in the opener (Supreme Novices' Hurdle at 1.30) and look to have a strong hand again; on ratings Willie Mullins' Vautour is the one to beat. Nicky Henderson has had a runner placed on six occasions in the past seven years. Stable jockey Barry Geraghty prefers Vaniteux to Josses Hill - the latter underwent a tracheal wash in the week; the results have come back clean and he takes his chance with Alan Tinkler in the plate.

Vaniteux rates an each-way play at around 12/1.

I don't like to overplay on the first day but layers, keen to bolster turnover (and therefore profit), come up with more special offers than you can shake a stick at - the latest from William Hill is even money Ruby Walsh to finish the meeting top jockey.

After Tom Scudamore had ridden Baltimore Rock to victory in Sandown's Imperial Cup on Saturday, one of the Channel Four racing team pointed out that Tom Scu looked to have a decent book of rides in the week ahead (includes Red Sherlock, Kings Palace, Dynaste and Vieux Lion Rouge).

Five times in the past decade three winners has been sufficent to take the top rider prize and Walsh can no longer rely on the support of Paul Nicholls.

33/1 Tom Scudamore is a big enough price for those prepared to take the chance in a market that isn't always easy to call; of course, by this time tomorrow evening, Walsh could already have a treble in the bag...

Market Rasen tomorrow

While many eyes will be on Ascot tomorrow (I take Henrythenavigator to win the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes), there's a decent jumps card at Market Rasen.

The opener has something of a trappy look about it - one to note for future reference is Twiston-Davies' Unfurled who won the Predominate Stakes three years ago but hasn't been seen out for 1127 days. He's reported to have schooled 'very well'.

The 32red.com Handicap Chase at 3.15 is the feature; in a race where dangers abound I shall support Brooklyn Brownie who ran well when second behind Snoopy Loopy over course and distance in the Summer Plate. The going was fairly soft that day; the better ground here should suit. The horse hasn't been seen out since, so I'm obviously taking his fitness on trust.

In the 2.40 Alan King introduces Black Jacari, having used this race in the past two seasons as a starting point for Katchit and Franchoek. Woolfall Treasure and Simarian will serve as useful benchmarks but Black Jacari is taken to collect the spoils.

Carl Llewellyn's Frascati Park looks the one to beat in the concluding bumper; I'm wary of Son of Flicka who is held in high regard by Donald McCain.

Ouzbeck finished strongly when winning over two and a half miles last time and is taken to stay the extra distance in the 3.55.

Some old friends and foes turn up for the competitive-looking 2.05. Two I'm fond of are Katies Tuitor who isn't always the easiest to catch right and Leslingtaylor who struggled a little over fences; my each-way selection however is Noel Chance's Divine Gift.

A couple of months ago a few of us burnt our fingers on Evan Williams' Five A Side. Regular readers may have noted that he runs today (Friday) in a lower grade handicap at Southwell. We've decided we won't be chasing losses...

The proper start to the jumps season

Many consider tomorrow's meeting at Chepstow the real start to the jumps season; in days gone by the feature race was the Mercedes Benz Chase, with the BBC televising at least three races from the card. How times have changed! The Paul Nicholls stable moves into gear now, and Ruby Walsh will start his regular winter flights across the Irish Sea. In the past, searching for value, I've experimented with an approach of opposing Nicholls' runners at this meeting, the theory being that after their summer break the horses may not be as far forward as many will assume. The results have been decidedly mixed - last year was best forgotten with Nicholls-trained beasts winning four (Tchico Polos 5/2, Herecomesthetruth 10/11f, R De Rien Sivola 8/1 and Taniano even money favourite). As today's Daily Telegraph reports Nicholls feels his charges are as far forward as they were this time last year, I'd advise caution in following the strategy this year.

One I would be prepared to take on is Classic Swain in the four-year-old hurdle at 4.10. Classic Swain has never struck me as straightforward and in the past has shown signs of temperament together with a tendency to miss the odd hurdle out here and there. Any Given Day is a horse I like while Trenchant, with Choc Thornton up, looks the pick of the Alan King runners. Josh Gifford's Helium, a staying-on eighth in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, is held in high regard but, as with many on their first run of the season, fitness has to be taken on trust; having said that, the tissue prices the horse at 20/1 which looks big. In an open event, Any Given Day is put forward as the tentative selection - his run at Market Rasen in mid-August may give him an edge over some of his rivals here.

Tot Of The Knar has had her fair share of trainers and moved to the Nicholls yard in August. A game mare on her day, she gets into the 3.35 with a light weight but she has been novice chasing in smallish fields - taking on seasoned handicappers here she makes little appeal at cramped odds.

The favourite has won eight of the last ten runnings of the juvenile hurdle which is due off at 4.45. At the time of writing Fongoli is the most experienced animal and the market leader. The King stable won this in 2006 with Katchit and then finished second twice in succession with Pouvoir (2007) and Tuanku (2008). Tombov needs to improve on what we've seen so far to get competitive but the yard wouldn't enter him here on a mere whim. Fongoli is the selection.

Only six go to post for the novice chase at 3.00 which tends to act as a stepping stone for a young chaser destined for better things. As two thirds of the field are seven years old and more, I have concentrated on Nicholls' Gullible Gordon and Jonjo O'Neill's Theatrical Moment - Gullible Gordon gets the vote.

Noted - McCoy chooses to ride at Bangor. Khachaturian is of interest in the opener after his recent second to King Troy over a trip perhaps a little beyond his best. The drop back here should suit, although King Troy, previously fourth in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen, didn't jump well that day. King's Forest is respected. The McManus horses City Theatre and Shadow Dancer will be short odds to take the two novice hurdle events but I'll be tempted to have an each-way dabble on Norma Hill if she's priced around the 12/1 mark in the 3.30. This course and distance winning mare returned to action after a two year layoff with a reasonable effort in August. I've won money on her before - on her day she was a very speedy individual; if she retains her ability, she can be competitive here.

Cheltenham selections

An interesting card at Cheltenham tomorrow, particularly with the Festival less than seven weeks away.

The opening novice hurdle looks a hot affair with Wichita Lineman from the Jonjo O'Neill stable likely to be well fancied. Following his victory at Newbury last time, I read a report that suggested he may be better on a flat track and I note he hasn't won at Cheltenham. That being the case, I think he's worth opposing with Tidal Bay. Zilcash, although only a four year old, is getting a big weight allowance from Wichita Lineman on official handicap ratings and may be worth an each way interest at 10/1 or bigger.

Unbeaten Black Jack Ketchum runs in the 2.10 and is the star horse on show. He's never run on ground as heavy as he'll encounter tomorrow which may make him vulnerable. The value will be in opposing him. Inglis Drever and Flight Leader look to have the best chances of springing a surprise; there's not a lot to choose between them but the fact Colin Tizzard's stable (which I certainly respect) hasn't sent out a winner for three weeks means the vote goes to Inglis Drever.

If Our Vic is on song he'll have a good chance in the 2.45. A colleague of mine has taken 12/1 about him ante post for the Gold Cup. It goes without saying that if he wins, he'll be shorter than that after this race; on the other hand... If I had to have an ante post bet at this stage, Nickname at 10/1 for the Champion Chase makes more appeal.

Regular readers will know that Katchit has served us well this winter and I'm not about to desert him now; he's the selection in the 3.20. It looks a race full of promising horses; the one I fear most is David Pipe's Pauillac.

Market Rasen tomorrow

At the time of writing the official going at Market Rasen is described as good; I'm assuming there will be no further deterioration in the ground. The juvenile hurdle due off at 2.05 looks intriguing. Soliya has the best form on offer but the word is for Alan King's Franchoek. The King stable won this last year with subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Katchit; if this one's anywhere near as good he'll take all the beating. In situations like this I prefer the form in the book so will side with Soliya as long as there's no further rain.

It's good to see Ruby Walsh back riding in this country following his summer break. He's on Blu Teen for the Paul Nicholls stable in the novice chase at 2.40. Both Blu Teen and and Crathorne have an official rating of 132 but Blu Teen is the one with the potential; it will be disappointing if he doesn't take this on the way to better things, although the starting price is likely to be short.

Sixteen go to post in the handicap chase at 3.15. This race looks very difficult but is one to watch for future reference. Kings Brook won this last year and is in form. I'd be intersted in Boychuk if the stable were in better form and a similar comment applies to Iron Man. If pressed, Kings Brook would be the selection but I'll be sitting this one out.

On the eve of the Festival...

... here's an eclectic mix of facts and figures in an attempt to whet your appetite.

Media talk is of the 'big four' - Kauto Star (Gold Cup), Big Buck's (World Hurdle), Master Minded (Champion Chase), Dunguib (Supreme Novices' Hurdle) - and they're all likely to start at evens or shorter. Several layers appear keen to win their money early, targetting Dunguib in the opening race on the first day. I'm a fan, having seen his exceptional win in last year's bumper, but I won't get involved here. Last time out Dunguib's jumping was far from fluent and here's another negative - over the past decade 23 seven-year-olds have contested the race but only one has won - Captain Cee Bee in 2008.

Tony McCoy put up Captain Cee Bee in the Arkle as his best chance this year but only two nine-year-olds have won the race since the war, the most recent being Danish Flight in 1988. The Arkle also happens to be a poor race for favourites with just one obliging in the last ten years.

Ruby Walsh has the pick from the powerful yards of Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls; he has committed early to Blackstairmountain (Supreme) and Quel Esprit (Neptune). I remember Mick Fitzgerald once describing Ruby as someone 'who plays his cards close to his chest'. He certainly made the right choices last year as he came away leading rider with seven winners.

Nine of the last ten Champion hurdlers have previously won at Cheltenham which may be something of a concern to fans of Solwhit. Five-year-olds don't have a good record in the Champion; the three entries from that age bracket this year are Starluck, Zaynar and Jumbo Rio. Of course Katchit was the exception when he claimed the spoils in 2008.

Trainer Enda Bolger and owner JP McManus have won four of the five runnings of the Cross Country Chase.

Dermot Weld trains Rite Of Passage, the current favourite for the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, but the handler has just one winner at this meeting to his name and that occured twenty years ago.

Those who fancy Long Run should note that only two five-year-olds have taken the RSA Chase since 1950; having said that, the favourite has won the last three renewals.

Master Minded attempts to become only the second horse to win three consecutive Queen Mother Champion Chases - Badsworth Boy was the first to achieve the feat (1983-1985).

I was considering Pettifour for Wednesday's four mile National Hunt Chase. @jpfestival visited the Twiston-Davies yard last week and asked assistant trainer Carl Llewellyn about that one's chances. The word is he'll stay every yard of the trip but they have reservations about his jumping. This race has thrown up some big-priced winners in the last ten years - one at 40/1, two at 33/1 and one at 25/1.

It's no surprise Wednesday's Coral Cup is sponsored by a bookmaker as it usually has the look of a bookmakers' benefit. Five-year-olds have a poor record - the stats point to a six or seven-year-old carrying under eleven stones. Five of the last eight winners have run in Newbury's totesport Trophy.

Many think Big Buck's bombproof in Thursday's World Hurdle; favourites have won only three of the last ten runnings. Trainer Paul Nicholls is on record as saying he considers Tidal Bay the biggest threat to his horse.

The market has proved a reliable guide to the Ryanair Chase with all five winners coming from the top three in the betting.

It's Paul Nicholls' Kauto Star for me (and plenty of others) in the Gold Cup. According to the handler Imperial Commander is the horse that could take the trophy away from his yard.

That's it for now; I'll try to post selections on a daily basis throughout the Festival. In the meantime, good luck to one and all at the greatest jump meeting in the world.

Cheltenham Festival - Friday

The Gold Cup, due off at 3.30 on the revised nine race card, is the highlight of the week. For what seems the majority of the season, this race has been built up into a showdown between the two Paul Nicholls' trained runners Kauto Star and Denman. I'm firmly in the Kauto Star camp, but it has the look of a race to savour rather than one to bet on. If I get involved I'll have a small each-way interest in Exotic Dancer, currently 14/1 with Corals. For those who haven't come across Harry Findlay, co-owner of Denman - should his horse win, you'll wonder how you'd never heard of him before.

Nineteen go to post at 2.50 for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. The main chances appear to be Carruthers, owned by Lord Oaksey, Gone To Lunch, The Tother One and Lodge Lane. It's questionable whether Lodge Lane will stay while The Tother One has won over two miles six and looks as though he definitely will. Carruthers was impressive when slamming Souffleur amongst others over two miles five at Warwick; he was allowed a soft lead that day in desperate conditions and it subsequently came to light that Souffleur coughed after the race. Gone To Lunch's third in the Cleeve behind Inglis Drever and Blazing Bailey reads well; on official handicap ratings he's the top horse here and so Gone To Lunch gets the vote.

Labelthou is the top rated horse in the opener; this game mare excels in testing conditions but I don't think she'll get her ground here. Of the others I fancy Nicky Henderson's Chomba Womba over Sweet Kiln and Theatre Girl.

Franchoek looks the one to beat in the Triumph but his price offers no value whatsoever in what is traditionally a rough race. Franchoek's trainer, Alan King, won this last year with Katchit, who won the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, so connections obviously know what's required.

Earlier in the week I tipped Forpadydeplasterer to take the Ballymore Novices' (1.05). This horse needs some cut - I wouldn't want to see the going changed to good before the running of this race. Nicky Henderson's Aigle D'Or looked rather green when beating Hold Em three and a bit lengths; Aigle D'Or is priced amongst the favourites whilst Hold Em is as big as 28/1 in some lists. This horse had a hard race last time out but is as tough as old boots - I may take a small each-way interest.

Finally, as I said earlier in the week, the Coral Cup is a minefield - Mendo is the each-way selection for those who crave a wager.

Ascot tomorrow

Kauto Star and champion hurdle favourite Binocular are expected to win their races at Haydock tomorrow but for betting purpsoes they make no appeal and are likely to start long odds on. At Ascot the highlight is the Coral Hurdle (1.55) run over a trip just shy of two and a half miles. Probable favourite Crack Away Jack is of interest but four year olds have a poor record in this, a fact that puts me off Alan King's Franchoek as well. I'd expect the distance here to be no problem for Franchoek as earlier in the season the trainer talked of his charge as a possible for the World Hurdle at Cheltenham next March (which is run over three miles). Paul Nicholls' Elusive Dream is respected but I have to stay with Nicky Henderson 's mare Chomba Womba who did this blog a favour a fortnight ago. That day she claimed the scalp of current champion hurdler Katchit, but we should remember that, although it was visually most impressive, she was receiving lumps of weight and the champ wasn't fully wound up. Forecast to be sent off around the 3/1 mark, Chomba Womba represents a value play against Crack Away Jack.

From one Jack to another... Jack The Giant, an intended runner in last week's Paddy Power Gold Cup, was withdrawn on account of the soft ground. He turns out in tomorrow's 1.20 instead and looks the one they all have to beat.

Although there are only five runners in the novice chase at 2.30, it looks trappy. I've never been totally convinced by Poquelin while Psychomodo won here last time out but gave ground away at every obstacle by jumping left throughout. I'll watch this one from the sidelines.

Oslot appears the percentage call in the 3.05 but I'm prepared to give Mahogany Blaze another chance after his second behind Ashley Brook in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter.

Wincanton tomorrow

There's a decent card tomorrow at Wincanton tomorrow where the going is described as soft. The highlight is the Elite at 2.50 in which champion hurdler Katchit attempts to give a stone and upwards to all his rivals. It's a big ask - I'm not sure the champion has reached peak fitness yet. The two I'm interested in are Takeroc and Chomba Womba; I think I'll be bold and take a chance with Nicky Henderson's mare Chomba Womba as she offers better value and the stable are in great form.

In the Grade 2 Novices' Chase at 2.20 I prefer Ring The Boss to likely favourite Breedsbreeze.

Several of the five day entries for the Badger Ales Trophy at 3.25 have elected to run in the 3.35 at Sandown instead. In a competitive event, I'm drawn to horses at the lower end of the handicap, especially given the testing conditions. Island Flyer has been well tipped up and will be popular but I prefer a little each way on an outsider in this; I considered Aztec Warrior but the stable form is off-putting so I'll take a flyer on Ardaghey (16/1) who likes racing right-handed on soft ground. His first run of the season wasn't encouraging so I'm more hopeful than confident.

Nicky Henderson's Hora has been raised a stiff-looking eighteen pounds after her last win but is still likely to start favourite for the mares' handicap hurdle. I'm interested in Creswell Ruby even though she's racing off a mark five pounds out of the handicap. Five pound claimer Charlie Huxley helps the cause; I'll consider an each-way punt at around the 10/1 mark.

Over at Sandown Indian Groom (1.55) will be no price whatsoever but should be watched as his defeat of Black Jacari at Market Rasen six weeks ago came as something of a shock to the stable who thought their charge needed another four weeks' work. Connections have let more competitive opportunities pass by in the interim so he will be expected to take this on the way to better things.

There's a guaranteed £1 million up for grabs in this week's Scoop 6 - all you have to do is pick the winner of five races at Doncaster (including the November handicap) and the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton. I wish you the very best of luck!

Jumps season review 2006/7

The record books will show that Paul Nicholls was champion trainer, Tony McCoy champion jockey and Tom O'Brien top conditional rider.

I've enjoyed this season with personal highlights including a day at Kempton races to celebrate my fiftieth birthday in October; a day at Newbury races with The Times racing correspondent Alan Lee in February; five winners from fifteen selections at the Cheltenham Festival; tipping McKelvey each way at 40/1 three weeks before the Grand National and four of my six National selections finishing in the first seven home.

Blog horse of the year has to be Katchit who was tipped six times and won on every occasion at odds of 4/11, 7/4, 7/4, 2/1, 11/2 and even money.

Of course, in between times I tipped plenty of losers as well...

Kauto Star's win in The Betfair Chase at Haydock in November convinced me the horse was special.

And a mention for two who are no longer with us - David Nicholson who departed this life in August and Desert Orchid who died peacefully at the ripe old age of twenty seven.

It all starts again tomorrow with the Ludlow Golf Club Claiming Hurdle at 2.00pm.

Cheltenham on Saturday

Zeturf sponsor the feature handicap chase at Cheltenham tomorrow run over two and a half miles with another hundred yards thrown in at the end just for good measure. War Of The World, formerly with Mouse Morris over in Ireland, has been in good form over the summer and is bound to be popular, as is Poquelin, although the furthest this one has tried to date is two miles one furlong - I wouldn't take it for granted he'll stay. This looks trappy - if I get involved I'll have a small each-way interest in David Pipe's Star Of Germany who will appreciate the going and won the listed Lord Mildmay Memorial at Newton Abbot in August. I'm ignoring his latest effort in the Kerry National where the three mile trip and yielding ground probably didn't play to his strengths; he has his share of weight here.

According to the market, the novice chase at 3.50 is between the Alan King trained King Troy and Paul Nicholls' Just Amazing. The former has already beaten the latter at levels but only by a neck, while the official handicapper rates King Troy just two pounds higher than his rival. It looks close on paper. King Troy didn't jump well at Market Rasen the last time but in a recent RP stable tour the handler implied that his charge had got to the front too soon. He's trying three miles here for the first time - the trainer thinks he'll get the trip. For the record Just Amazing has won over two miles seven furlongs at Stratford. In my book King Troy's fourth in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen is the best form on offer and as his price is likely to be slightly bigger, I'll opt for King Troy - the winner has come from the front two in the market on eight occasions in the last ten years. Twiston-Davies' Diablo would have been of some interest for each-way betting purposes had eight runners faced the starter.

The opener looks interesting with the return of the Triumph Hurdle fourth Starluck. He was carrying my money that day last March and was travelling on the bit two from home but the infamous Cheltenham hill found him out. Bearing that in mind, I'm not in a rush to take short odds on his seasonal debut. Silk Hall starts here and then is likely to step up to two and a half miles while stablemate Saticon was something of an enigma last year. Classic Swain is the not most fluent of jumpers and was beaten four lengths by James De Vassy at Chepstow seven days ago while Evan Williams' Simarian faces a tough task giving these opponents eight pounds. Fascinating stuff - the King stable has won the last two renewals with Katchit and Squadron, so I'll chance Silk Hall this time.

Emma Lavelle's Kangaroo Court will be expected to take the 5 o'clock but he'll be no price while in the concluding bumper I'll watch Fiveways closely. From a yard that has been in excellent form during the summer months (over 26% winners so far this season), he did me a favour at Bangor last time. This looks much tougher though as, together with Start Me Up, he carries top weight; Mr J Tudor helps the cause by taking off five pounds. Of Miss Overdrive in this race Alan King says: 'Having clearly done very well over the summer, I have to say her work has improved quite dramatically.' Say no more.