Cheltenham Festival 2022 - Tuesday

As I've said on numerous occasions in the past the Cheltenham Festival is a four day marathon; previously I've exercised a conservative approach on the opening day and, on balance, that approach has served me well enough.

Writing in Cheltenham The Ultimate Guide pro punter Andy Gibson tells readers: "If you can't see a shorty getting beat, just sit it out." That's what I intend to do in the Champion Hurdle (3.30). 

Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle 1.30

This year's renewal has been eagerly awaited. 

Willie Mullins saddles three of the nine runners, opting to run Sir Gerhard in the Ballymore (Wednesday 1.30) rather than here. Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit head the Irish challenge while Constitution Hill and Jonbon from the Nicky Henderson stable are the main British protagonists.

Last year Appreciate It won this for Willie Mullins and created a lasting impression in the process, beating Ballyadam 24 lengths. Appreciate It hasn't been seen since but takes on Honeysuckle et al. in the Champion Hurdle at 3.30.

Dysart Dynamo has won both hurdle races from the front this season. Tom Segal, who has been in excellent form of late, thinks Dysart Dynamo 'has it all to prove'.

Constitution Hill is a relaxed, chilled individual whereas Jonbon lives on his nerves and has, on occasions, looked quite anxious - his victory at Haydock last time was workmanlike. 

Ordinarily I wouldn't play in this race but the sponsors are offering to return losing bets (win singles and the win part of each-way singles) to a maximum of £10.00.

Selection: Constitution Hill win (5/2 Sky Bet)

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase

24 declared and the Ultima is ultra competitive. 

Course and distance winner Frodon stands his ground and has to give seven pounds and upwards to the rest of the field. 

Un Temps Pour Tout carried top weight to victory in 2017; the bottom five run from out of the handicap. 

Death Duty goes off 144 - one pound lower than his Irish rating; the last Irish trained winner was Dun Doire in 2006.

Does He Know looked to have a hard enough race winning the Reynoldstown on desperate ground at Ascot three and a half weeks ago.

11-year-old Vintage Clouds won last year's renewal, goes off the same mark again, and bids to become the first 12-year-old to win since the war.

Ben Dundee finished second behind School Boy Hours at Leopardstown over Christmas with Death Duty fifth, Foxy Jacks eighth and Noble Yeats some way back in ninth.

On his penultimate start Kiltealy Briggs finished 17 lengths adrift of Bravemansgame in the Kauto Star at Kempton. Jamie Snowden's charge has since won over two and a half miles at Musselburgh and tries this trip for the first time. The handler issued an upbeat update recently, pointing out the step up in distance should suit as the gelding is out of a sister to 2011 Grand National winner Ballabriggs.

William Hill are paying seven places and also offer a best odds guarantee.

Selection: Kiltealy Briggs each way (20/1 William Hill)    

Cheltenham Festival 2022 - handicap hints and headaches...

Irish trained runners dominated last year's Festival winning 23 of the 28 races.

In the immediate aftermath  Willie Mullins attributed that domination to the long term vision of Horse Racing Ireland's chief executive at the time Brian Kavanagh while, amidst much soul-searching this side of the Irish Sea, Alan King talked of 'taking Ferraris on with Fords'.

In the recent past Irish horses have performed particularly well in Festival handicaps:

2019: 13 of the 68 runners achieved a top three finish (19.12%)

2020: 17 of the 73 runners achieved a top three finish (23.29%)

2021: 13 of the 65 runners achieved a top three finish (20%)

A review established by the British Horseracing Authority announced in September that changes to the way British horses are handicapped would be made 'to correct a perceived imbalance in ratings'.

In a recent piece of analysis published on his ATR blog, Kevin Blake looks at the implications of these changes and concludes:

"...while last year's equivalent of this piece of analysis was unusually upbeat about how the Irish-trained horses were treated as a group by the weights, there is much less to be happy about this year. The treatment of the handicap hurdlers seems notably tough given all that has changed with how leniently British hurdlers have been treated this season."

The post highlights the handicapper's treatment of Langer Dan, currently favourite for the Martin Pipe (Friday 5.30), to illustrate the point. 

In similar vein, on seasonal debut Alaphilippe lost two places after the final flight when finishing fifth behind Sporting John at Warwick in January. 

Fergal O'Brien's charge has been been dropped two pounds for that effort and is set to contest this year's renewal of the Pertemps Final (Thursday 2.10) off a mark of 138 - five pounds lower than when fifth in last year's race behind Vanillier.

Sire Du Berlais, fourth in that Warwick race off 158, won the 2020 renewal of the Pertemps Final off 152 in a faster time than Lisnagar Oscar won the Stayers' Hurdle, and is set to go off a mark of 156.   

The Gordon Elliott trained Death Duty - 7/1 joint favourite for the Ultima Handicap Chase (Tuesday 2.50) - is the only horse assigned a lower rating than his Irish mark. Ironically this is a race in which Irish runners haven't fared particularly well in recent times, Dun Doire the last one to oblige in 2006.

School Boy Hours, with entries in the Ultima (Tuesday 2.50),  the Kim Muir (Thursday 5.30), as well as the Grand National at Aintree, runs off the same mark as his Irish rating - 142. 

Noel Meade's charge was raised nine pounds after winning the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas with Ben Dundee second, Death Duty fifth, Foxy Jacks seventh and Noble Yeats ninth.  

Apparently the handicapper has also changed the way in which he rates French horses this season. 

As Paul Kealy has pointed out, under the old system Gaelic Warrior would have been rated 139 rather than 129 in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.50 Tuesday). 

In the same race it's possible to make a case for The Tide Turns being ahead of his mark (137) following his run behind Teahupoo in the Red Mills Trial. 

The only British trained runner with a rating above 130 is Petit Tonnerre (138) who also holds an entry in the Triumph Hurdle (Friday 1.30).

Taking into consideration the analysis above, British trained hurdlers with an entry in a Festival handicap and a mark that has fallen since the turn of the year include: 

McFabulous (155-150); Honest Vic (146-141); If The Cap Fits (142-137); Ask Dillon (141-137); Solara One (134-130); Boothill (135-132); Third Wind (146-144); Call Me Lord (144-142); Brinkley (142-140); Stoney Mountain (141-139); Pileon (137-135); and Balko Saint (133-131). 

After all that, currently just seven British trained horses are priced up either favourite or joint favourite for the Festival's 28 races:

Constitution Hill (Supreme)

Edwardstone (Arkle)

Good Risk At All (Coral Cup)

Shishkin (Champion Chase)

Celebre D'Allen (Paddy Power Plate)

Hillcrest (Albert Bartlett)

Langer Dan (Martin Pipe)

A quick glance at the Coral Cup and I'm surprised Gowel Road is 12/1 and Unexpected Party 9/1 when the former beat the latter over course and distance in November conceding a stone. Gowel Road also holds an entry in the Martin Pipe.

I think Kiltealy Briggs is worth a second look in the Ultima (Tuesday 2.50) as is Commodore in the Kim Muir (Thursday 5.30) on the back of an impressive win at the track back in December; the Venetia Williams trained grey also holds an entry in the Grand National.  

Threeunderthrufive looked interesting in the National Hunt Challenge Cup (Tuesday 5.30). Paul Nicholls happens to agree but the McNeill family are keen to run in the Brown Advisory (Wednesday 2.10).

Dan Skelton probably goes into next week with his strongest ever team - away from the handicaps, Nube Negra (Champion Chase) and Protektorat (Gold Cup) represent reasonable each-way plays although drying ground may not play to Protektorat's strengths.

And with no more than 10 runners in the Champion Hurdle I wonder if William Hill will pay five places as they did last year - Not So Sleepy finished fifth at odds of 125/1.

Sky Bet offer to return losing bets (win singles and win part of each way singles) to a maximum of £10.00 in the first race of the meeting, the Supreme (Tuesday 1.30). 

The crowds are set to make a welcome return this year; as always I'll aim to post selections for each of the four days.

Not long to wait now...

A Giant step - in the right direction?

With Cheltenham on the horizon I haven't spent a lot of time on tomorrow's cards but the opener at Newbury has piqued interest.

Eight have been declared for the 'Play Pick Six and win £1000 Veterans' Handicap Chase' due off at 1.15. Three and a quarter miles is the trip with the going currently described as soft.

At the time of writing Aso heads the market but looks eminently opposable. Venetia Williams' charge carries top weight, has never won beyond two miles five and didn't appear to quite stay the stiff three miles at Exeter last time out. 

Indy Five doesn't have any issues on that score and comes into this in good form having won off a mark of 115 at Doncaster in December and subsequently finishing second behind Manwell at Catterick; he meets better quality opposition here. 

Kauto Riko's fourth behind Chantry House in the Cotswold Chase catches the eye - Chantry House is quoted a 16/1 chance for the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup in a fortnight's time - and his staying on second behind Two For Gold at Doncaster in December also reads well. 

Kim Bailey's charge franked that form on his next two starts - winning the Fleur de Lys Chase at Lingfield and finishing second behind Fakir D'Oudairies at Ascot two weeks ago.

Kauto's form looks the best on offer here.

Prime Venture won the final of the 2021 veterans' series at Sandown at the beginning of January (both Aso and Indy Five pulled up) but that was run on desperate, heavy ground - only five of the 13 starters completed after Valadom spread-eagled the field with a punishing front-running performance before fading between the final two flights.

Evan Williams' charge was raised seven pounds for that effort. Last week he became detached in a three mile hurdle race at Chepstow before staying on dourly to finish 17 lengths behind Ballyandy.

Christmas In April is one of a number in this field who like to race prominently. 

Colin Tizzard's charge won the Devon National at Exeter two years ago (Indy Five fifth); after posting a decent effort conceding six pounds to Hold That Taught at Carlisle in October, he appears to have gone off the boil and, sporting first-time blinkers, was well beaten at Wincanton last month.

Saint Xavier didn't jump well behind Big River at Kelso last time and I'm not convinced this is his best trip - in November 2021 he won over two miles one and half furlongs at Auteuil.

Minellacelebration faded out of contention in a veterans' chase at Warwick three and a half months ago but I've convinced myself Encounter A Giant is worth a second look provided eight make it to the start.

This one hasn't been easy to train; as a result, with just three starts to his name, he looks one of those most uncommon sorts - an unexposed ten-year-old.

In a recent stable tour [RP Weekender 16-20.02.22] handler Alastair Ralph had this to say of his charge:

"He had been off the radar since winning easily at Hereford in December 2019 but finally came back at Exeter last week when he was pulled up. He'd been away a couple of times and was as sharp as we could get him. I love him as he's a big, galloping sort but he has been plagued by problems, hence the low mileage." 

Although those comments are no ringing endorsement Encounter A Giant was highlighted as the 'dark horse' selection for the stable. He was dropped three pounds for that effort at Exeter and Alex Edwards claims three.

Kauto Riko is my idea of the winner but I'm hoping Encounter A Giant can build on that recent comeback and outrun current odds of 28/1.

Provided eight make the start, I'll take an each-way interest in Encounter A Giant. 

Eider Chase 2022

Following changes made in 2020, the Eider Chase, now run over a distance of four miles one furlong and 56 yards, is, by my reckoning, the third longest race in the calendar behind the Aintree Grand National and the Midlands Grand National run at Uttoxeter. 

Unfortunately the race fell foul of the weather in 2020; last year Sam's Adventure became the first winner over the extended distance, beating Crossley Tender threequarters of a length with Salty Boy a further 10 lengths adrift in third.

The going is currently described as good to soft; they're due off at 3.15.

Of 17 declared for tomorrow's renewal, I've arbitrarily concentrated on seven in the field that have shown some kind of form over a distance beyond three and a half miles, although I have to admit the drying ground might negate the validity of that premise to a certain degree; Checkitout only just fails to meet this threshold.

The seven referenced are: Eclair Surf; Lake View Lad; Potters Corner; Achille; Innisfree Lad; Gwencily Berbas; and Cash To Ash.

Three of those seven - Lake View Lad, Potters Corner and Achille - are aged 12; the last 12 year old to oblige was the Jenny Pitman trained Willsford in 1995.

Eclair Surf proved something of a revelation in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time out, making all to win by 13 lengths (Achille seventh). 

The horse hadn't been too fluent at the fences up to that point but he jumped really well at Warwick and has been raised 10 pounds for his trouble. Earlier today he was replaced at the head of the market by Irish raider History Of Fashion who looks to have been given every chance by the British handicapper.

Lake View Lad's seventh behind Mighty Thunder in the Scottish Grand National last April off a mark of 155 reads well; Nick Alexander's charge hasn't been in quite the same form this term and races off 142.

I'm prepared to forgive Potters Corner his most recent effort when he was pulled up in the Welsh National at Chepstow - only five finished that day (Achille fourth); Captain Drake, pulled up in the same race, won the Devon National at Exeter earlier this afternoon. 

On his penultimate start Potters Corner was beaten a nose by Diesel D'Allier in the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase at Cheltenham; a reproduction of that form would give Christian Williams' charge a chance and jockey Ellis Collier can claim seven. 

The yard is currently operating at a 27% win strike rate; the market suggests stablemate Win My Wings has a better chance on her first try beyond three and a quarter miles..

It's difficult to see the Venetia Williams trained grey Achille reversing Warwick form with Eclair Surf.

On his penultimate run Gwencily Berbas looked impressive winning at Exeter but David Pipe's charge appeared to be taken out of his comfort zone by Valadom and deep ground next time at Sandown and his jumping suffered as a result. 

Back in December Cash To Ash and Innisfree Lad finished second and third respectively behind Big River in the Scottish Borders National at Kelso; the pair look closely matched again. That day Cash To Ash may have finished slightly closer to the winner but for a mistake at the last.

Cash To Ash has since finished second behind Sidi Ismael in the Lincolnshire National and then second again behind Big River at Kelso while Innisfree Lad has won at Plumpton but was well beaten at Newbury and on a return visit to Plumpton. 

I marginally prefer Cash To Ash but stable form is a concern and his profile doesn't match that of recent winners:

2009 winner: Merigo (125); top-rated: Harmony Brig (136)

2010 No race

2011 winner: Companero (132); top-rated: Comply Or Die (144)

2012 winner: Portrait King (131); top-rated: Mister Marker (135)

2013 No race

2014 winner: Wyck Hill (133); top-rated: Junior (145)

2015 winner: Milborough (134); top-rated: Shotgun Paddy (147)

2016 winner: Rocking Blues (126); top-rated: Shotgun Paddy (144)

2017 winner: Mysteree (127); top-rated: Straidnahanna (139)

2018 winner: Baywing (140); top-rated: Chase The Spud (149)

2019 winner: Crosspark (135); top-rated: Daklondike (148)

2020 No race

2021 winner: Sam's Adventure (139); top-rated Crosspark (150)

(Seven of the ten winners listed carried a weight between 10-13 and 11-01.)

Cash To Ash may prove well-named but he stays and has been in consistent form this term. 

With William Hill, Paddy Power and Sky Bet paying six places Cash To Ash is the each-way suggestion, a 16/1 chance at the time of writing.

Postscript: Strong Economy has been declared a non-runner this evening leaving a field of 16.

Haydock's Grand National Trial 2022

Tomorrow's card at Haydock is subject to an early morning inspection with the going currently described as heavy; rain is forecast.

Following the release of the weights for the 2022 Randox Grand National earlier in the week, 11 have been declared for the William Hill Grand National Trial which is due off at 2.40.

Secret Reprieve won the 2020 Welsh Grand National and on his next run finished fifth behind Iwilldoit in the 2021 renewal. That was a decent effort after such a long layoff; he has a nice racing weight here (10-05) and is the clear market leader. 

Evan Williams' charge missed the cut for last year's Aintree showpiece and there's every chance the same will happen again this year too. 

As an aside, unfortunately it looks as though a similar fate awaits my early Aintree fancy. 

Hill Sixteen was beaten a nose by Snow Leopardess in the Becher from four pounds out of the handicap 10 weeks ago yet is 66/1 with several layers while the likeable grey mare is priced up 16/1 joint favourite. 

I digress.

Pulled up in last year's Grand National, Bristol De Mai loves Haydock and has underfoot conditions to suit but has to concede nine pounds and upwards to his rivals; since 2000 three horses have carried 11-12 to victory: Shotgun Willy (2003); Miko De Beauchene (2008); and Silver By Nature (2011).

Four weeks ago Sam Brown was beaten half a length by Royale Pagaille in the Peter Marsh here (Kalooki fifth, Lord Du Mesnil sixth). 

The winner took all the plaudits that day but with a couple of cleaner jumps at the final two flights Sam Brown could easily have come home in front. 

The handicapper raised Anthony Honeyball's charge just two pounds for that effort which looks on the lenient side - the extended trip here is an unknown but his chance is very much respected.

At 13 years of age what a wonderful horse Blaklion is!

In 2017 he went off 7/2 favourite for this race to come home second behind Vieux Lion Rouge before finishing fourth behind One For Arthur at Aintree. 

At odds of 50/1 he finished sixth in last year's National and has demonstrated this term he still retains all his enthusiasm for the game with two victories at this track. The oldest horse to come in front was 12-year-old Giles Farnaby in 1958.

Enqarde beat Remastered 10 lengths here in the Tommy Whittle just before Christmas. 

That form reads well although Remastered didn't appear to stay the same trip when fading into fourth behind Royale Pagaille and Sam Brown last month. 

Dr Richard Newland's charge was sent off the 4/1 favourite for this race last year but appeared to weaken after the last finishing fourth behind Lord Du Mesnil. 

On his first run for over 12 months The Galloping Bear made all to carry top weight to victory on heavy ground in the Surrey National at Lingfield four weeks ago. 

Ben Clarke's charge is unbeaten over fences and, after reassessment, is rated five pounds higher. That looked a hard race the last day - and this looks a better race.

Sidi Ismael is another to try a step up in grade. 

David Pipe's charge won the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen on Boxing Day; his fall next time out in the North Yorkshire National at Catterick is a cause for concern. 

Time To Get Up beat Mighty Thunder in last year's Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter; he returns after suffering a setback following his run in the Grand Sefton in November. 

I'm not sure this trip is going suit Mint Condition.

Going back to the Peter Marsh last month both Kalooki and Lord Du Mesnil were soundly beaten behind Royale Pagaille. 

To my mind Kalooki's jumping isn't always foot perfect but I was disappointed by Lord Du Mesnil - I'd tipped him for the race - who was beaten as soon as they turned for home. 

Although the official going that day was reported soft, the night before the race handler Richard Hobson indicated he was concerned the ground may not be deep enough after a drying week.

Provided the course passes its inspection tomorrow, there should be no concerns on that front this time. Lord Du Mesnil races off a mark just one pound higher than when he won last year's renewal (four pounds higher if  Paul O'Brien's three pound claim is taken into account).

I'm hoping the extended trip and deep ground will show Lord Du Mesnil in a better light. 

Betfred, Coral and William Hill are amongst layers paying four places; 11/1 at the time of writing, Lord Du Mesnil is the each-way suggestion.   

The 2022 Betfair Hurdle

It looks like a sign of the times with a field of just 14 declared for tomorrow's renewal of the UK's richest handicap hurdle (3.35 Newbury).

A couple of stats for starters:

The last horse older than six to come home in front was Geos in 2004.

Since the inaugural running of the race in 1963 (then known as the Schweppes Gold Trophy) only five horses have carried more than 11-05 to victory: Persian War (11-13) in 1968; Make A Stand (11-07) in 1997; Copeland (11-07) in 2002; Essex (11-06) in 2005; and Al Dancer (11-08) in 2019.

It comes as no surprise to see novices Broomfield Burg and Jpr One at the head of the market; both horses hold entries for the Supreme and the Ballymore at Cheltenham next month.

The former looked good at Kempton on Boxing Day while the latter was beaten a head by Datsalrightgino on his penultimate start; the fourth that day - Socialist Agenda - was in receipt of six pounds and last weekend turned out to win the Scottish County Handicap Hurdle at Musselburgh off  118 and is now rated 124.

Top weight Soaring Glory beat 22 opponents to win this last year off a mark of 133 (Fifty Ball second, Glory And Fortune thirteenth) with horses in behind including Edwardstone, Buzz, Guard Your Dreams and Milkwood.

Soaring Glory and Glory And Fortune look to face a stiff task at the weights this time but Fifty Ball goes off 131 - exactly the same mark as twelve months ago. 

I've seen a couple of tips for Gary Moore's inmate who comes into this on the back of three unsuccessful starts over the larger obstacles. Interest is tempered by this comment in the Weekender last week:

"The key to his chance is soft ground and if he gets those underfoot conditions then he has a big each-way shout again."

Of stablemate Royaume Uni Moore says:

"...but life is proving difficult off his mark of 123. I think he is as high as he is going to get and if we are going to get any improvement then it will be on ground that is riding quicker than he has encountered lately."

Boothill, third behind Soaring Glory in the listed Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle at Ascot in November, disappointed over fences at Exeter next time but remains relatively unexposed while Jetoile goes well from the front but may be rated on his second behind Constitution Hill in the Tolworth.

Tritonic and Glory And Fortune appear closely matched on their running in the Greatwood. Alan King's charge beat Onemorefortheroad in the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot just before Christmas and was subsequently raised five pounds.

On his first run after wind surgery First Street won comfortably at Kempton last month (Royaume Uni third, 3/1 favourite Lord Baddesley pulled up); a rise of nine pounds looks a trifle harsh but trainer Nicky Henderson says you'd struggle to split First Street and stablemate Broomfield Burg at home. 

Howdyalikmenow has done well since joining Evan Williams' yard in the autumn but has no collateral form with others in this field and is priced up at 66/1 this evening.

Knappers Hill encountered defeat for the first time in the Kennel Gate at Ascot behind Jonbon - currently 11/2 for the Supreme - and Colonel Mustard with I Like To Move It fifth. 

The recent form of the Nicholls yard has been well documented - one winner from 37 runs in the past fortnight and no runners at the track since Sunday; it's difficult to know what to expect tomorrow but if Bravemansgame, Clan Des Obeaux and Hitman run to form, the 10/1 currently on offer will look big.

I Like To Move It also holds entries for the Supreme and the Ballymore. 

Just before Christmas he had to concede weight to all his opponents in that tactical renewal of the Kennel Gate won by Knappers Hill. Prior to that his defeat of Tritonic at Cheltenham reads well (re-opposes here on the same terms) as does his defeat of Washington conceding three pounds. 

On a line through Washington he has a few pounds to find with Jpr One but Twiston-Davies boasts a decent record with novices in this race, having won with Splash Of Ginge (2014); Ballyandy (2017); and Al Dancer (2019).

At the time of writing William Hill offer 11/1 and pay five places; I Like To Move It is the each-way selection.

A dry January

'How was the dry January, PG?'

'Usual struggle - no winners, a couple placed.'

'Similar to the parched November and dried out December then?'

'Dry as a bone.'

The Racing Post reports officials 'relatively pleased' with field sizes for tomorrow's card at Sandown 'despite the driest January in 25 years'. The official going is described as good to soft, good in places on the chase course.

Look, I'll be honest with you - I've struggled to find a wager this weekend. Over the past seven days I've seen more comings and goings than Boris Johnson. 

Still, I've manged to pick out one from the 18 declared for Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle which is due off at 2.55. 

At the time of writing Green Book, Ree Okka and Beauport head the market.

Green Book was sent off the 9/2 favourite for the Lanzarote at Kempton three weeks ago but, unfortunately, got no further than the second flight, badly impeded by the fall of Ch'tibello and unseating Ned Fox. Cobblers Dream ran out an impressive winner that day with Call Me Lord third and Dans Le Vent fifth.

Ree Okka won a Kempton novice hurdle easily last time out. Connections feel this one is a chaser in the making; the gelding has been allocated a mark of 130 in this first handicap.

Beauport won the EBF Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final at this track last March. The handicapper raised Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge nine pounds and has subsequently raised him a total of five pounds more for finishing second twice this season - last time behind Dashel Drasher at Newbury.

In a recent stable tour (Weekender 08-12.12.21) Peter Fahey indicated the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham is the target for Bold Patriot:

"I was delighted with his run in the Pertemps qualifier at Cheltenham in October and the plan is to go back for the final. 

"He will have one more run over hurdles and that will leave him right for the festival but this season will be geared around that."

Orbys Legend boasts smart form this term, winning the Silver Trophy at Chepstow in October and then a Pertemps qualifier at Wincanton on Boxing Day (Flemcara third and If The Cap Fits over 20 lengths back in fourth).

Call Me Lord's record at Sandown - 1121323 - speaks for itself while at Haydock on good ground in November we saw this trip holds no fears for Dans Le Vent (Orbys Legend back in seventh, If The Cap Fits ninth, Ask Dillon eleventh).

There was a hint The Brimming Water didn't see out that same Haydock trip on soft ground last time, beaten into third by Small Present and Tokyo Getaway which leads me on to Jesuitique.

Just before Christmas, in receipt of seven pounds, Jesuitique beat Tokyo Getaway 'easily' five and a half lengths (Padleyourowncanoe third) at Haydock. 

The race summary in the RP Weekender states: 'A one-sided handicap, the winner looking a long way ahead of his mark...' and then goes on: 'The handicapper can get stuck into him but he's totally unexposed around 3m and further improvement is on the cards.'

The handicapper raised the gelding 10 pounds for that effort. 

Prior to that in November, in receipt of 16 pounds, Dr Richard Newland's charge beat Beauport one and a half lengths over two and a half miles at this track. Taking jockey allowances into consideration, Jesuitique meets Beauport on eight pounds worse terms tomorrow; Cillin Leonard has taken the ride on all four runs in this country to date.

I'm hoping with improvement to come Jesuitique can be competitive in what is an extremely competitive handicap. 

At the time of writing Paddy Power / Betfair offer 12/1 and pay six places. Jesuitique is the each-way suggestion.

Off to the nearest watering hole now - spitting feathers I am!

Doncaster's Sky Bet Chase 2022

Connections of Aye Right (rated 159) and Simply The Betts (rated 157) have chosen to contest tomorrow's Cotswold Chase (2.30 Cheltenham) rather than take up alternative options, namely the Sky Bet Handicap Chase (3.20 Doncaster) and the Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (1.55 Cheltenham) respectively. 

The Trials Day card has a number of small fields - just five declared for both the Cotswold Chase and the Cleeve Hurdle (3.05) and six for the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (3.40); officials have put this down in part to the prevailing going, now described as good.

I've decided to head north. 

The going at Doncaster is described as good, good to soft in places; 17 are set to face the starter for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase due off at 3.20.

A number in the field have questions to answer over this trip.

Favourite Fusil Raffles won the Charlie Hall at Wetherby on his first try at three miles but that day Shan Blue was 20 lengths to the good when taking a crashing fall three out.

Demachine appeared to be outstayed by Remastered in the Reynoldstown at Ascot last February and Cap Du Nord likewise when third behind Takingrisks in this race last year. 

Midnight Shadow and Nuts Well try the trip for the first time while both Janika and Grand Sancy look suspect stayers.

Kapcourse is another to try three miles for the first time. 

I'm guessing this one has been difficult to train but the gelding didn't appear to be stopping when taking the Sir Peter O'Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase at Newbury over two miles six and a half furlongs (Grand Sancy fourth). The handicapper has raised Paul Nicholls' charge eight pounds for that effort but his chance is respected. 

Debece joined the Skelton yard last spring and on his first run for new connections was passed by Fortescue after the last at Sandown. Now aged 11, he underwent wind surgery in September - the market would appear to indicate a bold run is anticipated. 

Canelo's defeat of Snow Leopardess (Windsor Avenue third) in the 2020 Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby reads well. 

Trainer Alan King won the 2016 and 2017 renewals of this race with Ziga Boy. Canelo came home fourth behind Takingrisks last year but the gelding has been out of form this term and the yard hasn't recorded a win over the sticks in 47 starts over the past month.

Windsor Avenue ran with credit to finish second behind Snow Leopardess at Bangor on seasonal debut but next time was never travelling in the Rowland Meyrick and was pulled up; connections try first-time blinkers. 

Cloudy Glen isn't the most consistent of individuals - another pulled up behind Good Boy Bobby in last month's Rowland Meyrick - but Charlie Deutsch prefers to ride the Ladbrokes Trophy winner here rather than Farinet at Cheltenham.

Demachine's stablemate Storm Control bounced back to form at Newbury - the worry would be that race was just 10 days ago. 

Rocco looked a horse to keep an eye when racing up with the pace and then going on to win the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at odds of 40/1 (Hurricane Harvey third, Cap Du Nord fourth and Some Chaos pulled up). However he didn't jump well next time behind Commodore at Cheltenham.

The form of Snow Leopardess acts as a useful benchmark for a few of these and I'm going to make a case for Hill Sixteen.

Hill Sixteen wasn't the most consistent last term and moved up to Sandy Thomson's yard in Berwickshire in the autumn. 

After finishing sixth behind Hold That Taught on seasonal debut at Carlisle he ran a stormer in the Becher Chase from four pounds out of the handicap, beaten a nose by Snow Leopardess. 

I expected a reasonable showing in the Welsh Grand National next time but he was nowhere to be seen and was eventually pulled up. This year's Welsh National was a messy affair run on desperate ground - the start was an absolute shambles - and, with only five of the 20 completing, I'm prepared to forgive that effort.

Hill Sixteen has previously been trained by Sue Smith and Nigel Twiston-Davies. Sandy Thomson's yard has a respectable record with this type of animal; if the gelding can rediscover that Becher form, 20/1 looks value. 

Hill Sixteen is the each-way suggestion, generally a 20/1 chance, with sponsors Sky Bet paying six places.

Haydock's Peter Marsh Chase 2022

During the week concern was expressed that the 'Lingfield Million' initiative might have an adverse effect on the number of runners in the Peter Marsh at Haydock. Eight set off in last year's renewal; ten are set to face the starter at 2.35 tomorrow. 

The going is described as soft, heavy in places on the chase course.

12 months ago Royal Pagaille won in something of a common canter, Tom Scudamore doing the steering after regular pilot Charlie Deutsch opted to go to Ascot instead. At the time I wrote:

An analysis I've read of Royale Pagaille's victory at Kempton over Christmas talks of  'a performance of some note' indicating the horse 'won't look out of place in Graded company'.

It's no surprise therefore to see Venetia Williams' charge priced up favourite but the gelding has been raised 16 pounds for that effort and now sits on a mark of 156. There's Gold Cup talk in the background as well, with layers quoting odds of 50/1 for the Cheltenham showpiece in March. 

So I still haven't quite worked out why regular pilot Charlie Deutsch has decided to go to Ascot to ride Espoir De Guye (3.00) and Fanion D'Estruval (3.35). Did Charlie, like the rest of us, expect Haydock to be abandoned? Or does he prefer his chances at Ascot?  

Scudamore clearly enjoyed his armchair ride that day but it must have made for painful viewing for Charlie with Fanion D'Estruval finishing fourth behind First Flow in the Clarence House and Espoir De Guye also fourth behind  Dashel Drasher in the bet365 Handicap Chase.

Fanion D'Estruval has been declared for tomorrow's renewal of the bet365 Handicap Chase - this year, though, Charlie rides at Haydock. I note the gelding also holds an entry in the Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield on Sunday but connections' preference is for the Ascot engagement.

Conceding 12 pounds and upwards to the rest of the field represents no easy task for Royal Pagaille who goes off 163. Historically just four horses with a rating of 160 or higher have competed in this event;  Jodami is the only one to come home in front, in 1997, off a rating of 169.

Last time out in the Betfair Chase Royal Pagaille finished 22 lengths second behind A Plus Tard, the current 7/2 favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. 

The ground at Haydock that day was described as good to soft but rode nearer to good; Venetia Williams' charge came back in with an injury to the right hind pastern and in the circumstances ran a very good race.  

Tom Scudamore rides Remastered who was running a big race when taking a crashing fall four from home in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury; thankfully he came out unscathed. Next time he ran a fine second here but had no answer to Enqarde in the Tommy Whittle (Sam's Adventure pulled up).

The Rowland Meyrick run at Wetherby on Boxing Day looks a significant piece of form. 

Good Boy Bobby was tenacious up front to see off the attentions of Lord Du Mesnil by one and threequarters lengths with Lake View Lad some 16 lengths adrift in fourth.

That only tells half the story though as Empire Steel looked to be travelling ominously well when coming to grief four from home. His chance is respected here but under the conditions of the race he is obliged to go off three pounds higher than his allotted handicap mark.

Exasperated with the family's Boxing Day festivities, I sought some simple temporary solace in backing Lake View Lad each-way at Wetherby on the back of Nick Alexander's comments that the grey had been trained  specifically for the race. 

Unfortunately the gelding provided no Boxing Day solace whatsoever, struggling to keep tabs on the principals over the second circuit. 

The handicapper has dropped his mark three pounds to 146 and the grey has a good record at this track but it's difficult to see him finishing ahead of Empire Steel (provided he completes) or Lord Du Mesnil (provided he's in the mood).

With just six chase starts to his name, Sam Brown has looked difficult to train but as a consequence still remains relatively unexposed for a ten-year-old. Last time out at Aintree he finished a distant third behind Protektorat - currently a 9/1 chance for the Gold Cup; two years ago he won a two and a half mile novice chase on this card. 

Kalooki's jumping has proved problematic in the past - connections will hope first-time cheekpieces can help - while Alnadam has done a lot of his racing over two and half miles.

Beaten over 40 lengths, Fortescue wasn't disgraced finishing seventh in the Ladbrokes Trophy at odds of 50/1 and at Kempton over Christmas he was beaten a length by Five Star Getaway. He is three pounds 'wrong' at the weights but the additional burden is offset by Hugh Nugent's five pounds claim.  

Last season Sam's Adventure won the Tommy Whittle over course and distance off 133 and the Eider Chase at Newcastle off 139. This season Brian Ellison's charge has been bang out of form; he went off at 40/1 for the Rehearsal Chase in November (finished 49 lengths behind winner Aye Right) and, four pounds 'wrong' at the weights tomorrow, is quoted at a similar price.

The market suggests the race rests between Royal Pagaille, Remastered and Empire Steel; two each-way chances of interest are Lord Du Mesnil and Sam Brown.

The former isn't entirely predictable and wouldn't be guaranteed to build on his second in the Rowland Meyrick (for which he was raised two pounds) but he has a lot more experience over the larger obstacles than most in the field and his record at the track reads 1121.

The latter has something to find on ratings but handler Anthony Honeyball is quoted in the Racing Post as saying: 'I'll be very disappointed off his current mark if he isn't thereabouts at the finish.' Sam Brown has been the subject of support in the market this evening.

Lord Du Mesnil is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 10/1 with bet365 and BetVictor, both paying three places.

Warwick's Classic Chase 2022

I can't quite recall the last time I tipped a horse that even placed in Warwick's Classic Chase and, with recent results predictably more miss than hit, I thought I'd check out Old Moore's Almanac for inspiration. 

The Almanac - a family favourite once upon a time - informs me that a nine-year-old carrying 10-11 may win this year's race. As the only nine-year-old declared, The Hollow Ginge, shoulders 11-11, and not one of the 15 runners has been allocated 10-11, I've had to revert to type.

Tomorrow's card needs to pass an 8.00 am inspection; frost sheets were deployed in vulnerable areas on Wednesday. The going is described as soft, good to soft in places on the chase course.

The quality of this year's race, due off at 3.00 pm, falls some way short of recent renewals, illustrated by the fact that Notachance won last year off 139 carrying 10-5 yet 12 months later tries to repeat the feat off the same handicap mark carrying 11-9.

Top weight tomorrow Corach Rambler goes off 142. Only once in the past ten years has the top weight been rated below that figure - Missed Approach rated 139 in 2018; in 2013 Auroras Encore raced off 142.

2012 winner Hey Big Spender remains the only horse to have carried top weight to victory - indeed, the only horse to have won carrying more than 11-7.

Corach Rambler's trainer, Lucinda Russell, collected the spoils with One For Arthur in 2017. She describes Corach Rambler as 'Scu's favourite horse'; having won his last two chase starts, the gelding has gone up a total of 15 pounds.

His chance is certainly respected but I'm not totally convinced this tight track will play to his strengths.

At the time of writing Gericault Roque heads the market, probably on the back of his noteworthy second behind Saint Palais in the Mandarin Chase at Newbury 17 days ago. 

I note this one is part-owned by Professor Caroline Tisdall and I'm just wondering whether connections see the gelding as a replacement for the recently retired Vieux Lion Rouge - with a crack at the Grand National the long-term aim.  

The horse has only had three chase starts to date and has yet to come home in front but David Pipe's charge has been well backed during the week. 

Evan Williams sent out Prime Venture to win the Veterans' Chase at Sandown last Saturday and Supreme Escape to win the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick yesterday. 

He saddles No Rematch here who has also been well backed. The trip shouldn't be a problem but this one has just two chase starts to his name.

In a race that can ride quite rough, I tend to prefer one with a little more experience over fences.

This has been the target for Notachance who ran well for a long way in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock last time and sports a first-time visor. 

Conceding five pounds he beat Achille half a length in last year's renewal (The Hollow Ginge pulled up) although the grey never looked likely to go past the leader. 

Venetia Williams' charge ran well to finish fourth behind Iwilldoit in an attritional Welsh National 19 days ago in which 15 of the 20 starters failed to finish. That looked a hard race and I wonder whether this might come a little too soon.

Padleyourowncanoe moved to Dan Skelton's yard at the beginning of November and just before Christmas ran a respectable third at odds of 40/1 behind Jesuitique in a Haydock hurdle. His fourth behind Minellacelebration off a mark of 140 in the 2020 Summer Cup at Uttoxeter reads well.

Eclair Surf was close enough to Iwilldoit in the Welsh Grand National Trial at the beginning of December but made a mistake five from home that put paid to his chance; on occasions his jumping  hasn't quite been up to scratch.

Grace A Vous Enki has been racing over fences in France but last time fell three out on his third hurdle start in this country. This will be the gelding's first try over fences over here; the only six-year-old to win this race was Colonel Christy in 1981.

Jerrysback and The Hollow Ginge wouldn't be the most consistent of individuals but the latter underwent wind surgery after his latest run and his record after a break of 50 days or more reads 313211UP2. 

Chirico Vallis made all to defeat Kitty's Light a head at Chepstow in October - noteworthy form. That was run on good ground and I just wonder whether he'll stay this extended trip in prevailing conditions. 

In contrast Game Line has no stamina concerns having won the Norfolk National over three miles five furlongs in May and finished third in the Sussex National at Plumpton last time out. 

The handicapper dropped Peter Bowen's charge one pound after that run to a mark of 116; the lowest official rating of the past 10 winners is 122 (Rigadin De Beauchene in 2013).

Two recent Ludlow winners come into this in fine form. 

Head To The Stars beat Didero Vallis three lengths last time while Minella Encore beat Bobo Mac an eased-down 18 lengths and on the back of that performance is of interest. 

Dr Richard Newland's charge doesn't have a lot of mileage on the clock and looked to have benefitted from wind surgery at Fakenham in October before disappointing at Cheltenham the following month. The fitting of first-time blinkers certainly helped the cause at Ludlow, the handicapper subsequently raising the gelding nine pounds.

I'm hoping the blinkers can continue to work their magic and that the horse can see out see out this extended trip on this ground.

At the time of writing William Hill offer 14/1 and pay one fifth the odds five places.

Minella Encore is the each-way suggestion.

The 2021 Veterans' Chase Final at Sandown

Thirteen have been declared for tomorrow's final due off at 3.00, with the going on the chase course currently described as soft, good to soft in places; heavy rain is predicted throughout most of the day and conditions are expected to deteriorate.

Market leader Aso came home under four lengths behind Blaklion in Leg 12 of the series run on heavy ground at Haydock just over five weeks ago. 11 started that day but only five completed with Dashing Perk, Psychedelic Rock and Primo Venture all pulled up - Primo Venture was subsequently reported to have bled from the nose.

Venetia Williams' charge was raised two pounds to 149 for that effort and, after taking jockey allowances into consideration, has to concede 10 pounds and upwards to the rest of the field.

Final Nudge may have finally nudged 13 years of age recently but he finished third behind Time To Get Up and Midnight Thunder in the Midlands Grand National last March and then reappeared in Leg 10 of the series at Warwick in November to beat Fagan, with Sir Ivan six and a half lengths behind in fourth.

Raised just three pounds, Fergal O'Brien's charge looks weighted to confirm the form.

Sir Ivan is a consistent sort who finished third behind Seeyouatmidnight in last year's renewal off a mark of 135. 

Back in March he beat Valadom (128) and The King's Writ (139) in Leg 3 at Newbury but at the moment, off 140, would appear to be in the grip of the handicapper.

Last time out The King's Writ finished 49 lengths behind L'Homme Presse over an inadequate trip. 

Now on 133, he makes some appeal with amateur rider Mr Joshua Newman able to claim another seven pounds; Kayley Woollacott's charge has been well backed today.    

I prefer David Bass to Lee Marvin aboard Wandrin Star who beat Dancing Shadow and Gwencily Berbas over course and distance nine weeks ago. This one goes particularly well fresh but wouldn't be guaranteed to reproduce his form next time out.

Meanwhile, after that race, Gwencily Berbas made the short journey from David Pipe's yard to Exeter racecourse where, tipped up by Mick Fitzgerald, he won ten lengths at odds of 25/1 over a trip of three miles six and a half furlongs (Dancing Shadow third). A rise of eight pounds to 132 looks reasonable.

After a spell point-to-pointing Rolling Dylan finished second behind Wishing And Hoping in Leg 8 at Aintree in October and then second behind Bali Body over course and distance last month (Valadom third). 

The official going was good that day; to my mind both Rolling Dylan and Valadom prefer better ground, a comment that also applies to Psychedelic Rock.

Prime Venture's fifth behind stablemate Secret Reprieve in the Welsh Grand National 12 months ago reads well. Evan Williams' charge will appreciate underfoot conditions but only has one chase win to his name - a three runner Sedgefield novice - while Dashing Perk doesn't look guaranteed to stay the trip.

Both Indy Five and Dancing Shadow run from out of the handicap. 

The former hasn't looked the easiest at the start this term but made all to win comfortably at Doncaster the last day while the latter had Sir Ivan and Indy Five behind when finishing third to Some Chaos on seasonal debut.

I was impressed with the ride Tom Scudamore gave Gwencily Berbas last time and the manner in which the horse won. Since the move over from Ireland in May the gelding has finished in the first three on all four starts.

At the time of writing Gwencily Berbas is 10/1 with bet365 and Paddy Power who pay one fifth the odds four places.

Gwencily Berbas is the each-way selection.

Finally, I'm going to take another look at Navajo Pass in the finale (3.35). 

Top weight on heavy / desperate ground and the fitting of first-time cheekpieces rings the alarm bells, added to which Donald McCain's charge finished a long way behind Samarrive over course and distance five weeks ago. That said, on his best form - and current RPR ratings - he's entitled to be in the mix and has been backed this evening. 

After the gelding won over two and a half miles at Musselburgh 12 months ago, the trainer indicated his charge would be a better horse this term. 

Navajo Pass underwent wind surgery after finishing well beaten behind Goshen in the Kingwell Hurdle in February and then missed Aintree after suffering a setback. 

Was that run behind Samarrive (Zambezi Mix second) a sighter for this? 

Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase 2022

I can't quite believe it. 

For the first time in as long as I can remember people are leaving Scotland to go and celebrate new year in England. Whatever next? PG tips a winner? Steady on now.

Plenty of trainers from down south are making the journey in the opposite direction hoping to plunder the spoils at Musselburgh in races like the Betway Hair Of The Dog Handicap Hurdle (1.40), the Betway Hogmaneigh Handicap Hurdle at 2.10 (Christopher Wood, wouldn't he?) and the Betway 'Auld Reekie' Handicap Chase at 2.50.

In the words of U2 'Nothing changes on New Year's Day' - and so it would seem, with Coole Cody, Zanza, Simply The Betts, Galahad Quest, Kauto Rico and Deyrann De Carjac set to do battle once again in the Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (2.00), having recently met some of their aforementioned rivals in either the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November or the Racing Post Gold Cup in December.

The going tomorrow is described as soft and Alnadam currently heads the market.

Just over a year ago Alnadam beat Funambule Sivola 22 lengths into fifth at Sandown while conceding weight to that rival; on revised ratings connections will certainly fancy their chances of confirming the form, particularly with underfoot conditions to suit.

Training horses (as well as tipping them for that matter) can be a bit like walking a tightrope and, for whatever reason, Funambule Sivola didn't run his race that day; in eight chase starts to date that Sandown effort remains the only occasion Venetia Williams' charge has finished outside the first two. The majority of that form though is over two miles and there was just a hint in the Peterborough Chase the last day that the longer trip stretched his stamina.

Coole Cody is some character. 

Having won the 2020 renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup off a mark of 137 (Kauto Rico fourth, Simply The Betts sixth), 12 months later in the same race Coole Cody came to grief at the penultimate flight when in the lead. Four weeks on he returned to win the Racing Post Gold Cup off a mark of 143 ( Zanza a fast-finishing second and Deyrann De Carjac fifth).

Zanza finished equal sixth with Simply The Betts behind Midnight Shadow in the Paddy Power Gold Cup here seven weeks ago (Galahad Quest a commendable fifth and Deyrann De Carjac ninth) before finishing second behind Coole Cody. 

On both occasions Philip Hobbs' charge made eye-catching late headway up the hill, although last time he looked particularly slow at the start. Perhaps I'm being a tad unfair but he reminds me a little of the Evan Williams trained Buywise who would often finish his races strongly at this venue but still manage to encounter trouble in running. Connections try cheekpieces for the first time tomorrow.

Back in November 2019, on his first run in this country, Riders Onthe Storm won what looked a competitive Aintree handicap chase with something to spare. The following March he took a tumble in the Ryanair Chase and things didn't really work out thereafter. He showed his first piece of noteworthy form since four weeks ago at Aintree when second behind Clan Legend (Galahad Quest a faller).

Kauto Riko ran a blinder when second behind Two For Gold at Doncaster three weeks ago; the handicapper has raised Tom Gretton's charge two pounds for that effort.

Vienna Court looked good in a mares' handicap chase last time but this is a stiffer task while Alan King tells readers of the Weekender that he fears 'the ground is going to be too soft' for Deyrann De Carjac.

At the 2020 Cheltenham Festival Simply The Betts won the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase on soft ground over this course and distance off a mark of 149. 

According to some rather rough calculations comparing previous encounters (which I carried out on the back of an unwanted Christmas present box after four bottles of beer) Simply The Betts looks weighted to come home ahead of Coole Cody, Zanza and Kauto Riko, although handler Paul Nicholls still thinks his charge 'is a few pounds too high'. 

I've drawn a line through the latest effort at Aintree (pulled up behind Protektorat).

There was an unconfirmed rumour Tina Turner had been booked but, anyway, Harry Cobden now takes the ride; at the time of writing William Hill offer 10/1 and pay six places. 

Simply The Betts is the each-way selection.

I'd like to take this opportunity to wish all readers a happy and prosperous new year.

The 2021 Coral Welsh Grand National

Merry Christmas.

This past week I've spent more time with the lateral flow test kit than the form book; still, I like to take an interest in the Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow).

Twenty are set to face the starter; the going is currently described as soft.

Native River carried top weight to victory in 2016 and bids to repeat the trick tomorrow. Colin Tizzard's charge has to give 10 pounds to stablemate and 2018 winner Elegant Escape and a minimum of 16 pounds to everything else; several in the field will run from out of the handicap. .

Secret Reprieve was backed as though defeat was out of the question for last year's renewal; carrying 10-01 Evan Williams' charge never gave supporters a moment's worry, coming home three lengths ahead of The Two Amigos with Captain Drake fourth, Truckers Lodge seventh and Ramses De Teillee twelfth.

Secret Reprieve hasn't seen a racecourse since. The trainer admits that isn't an ideal set of circumstances but this evening the horse is clear market leader.

In 2019 Potters Corner came home in front, beating Truckers Lodge one and threequarters lengths (Elegant Escape sixth); Christian Williams' charge ran a fine trial earlier this month, beaten a nose in the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.

Truckers Lodge finished a distant fifth behind Iwilldoit in the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at this track at the beginning of the month - the prep race Secret Reprieve won in 2020. Second horse home, Colorado Doc, was beaten 24 lengths. Sam Thomas' charge warrants every respect. 

Connections fit first-time blinkers on Truckers Lodge; on jockey bookings the stable's main chance appears to be Highland Hunter. 

Highland Hunter beat Deise Aba a nose in the London National at Sandown and here is weighted to confirm that form.

Midnight Thunder won last year's Edinburgh National at Musselburgh and followed up with victory in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr; on seasonal reappearance he was a well beaten fourth in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby.

Peter Fahey trains The Big Dog over in Ireland; this race has been a long-term target. Rated 132 over hurdles, the handicapper over here has allocated him a mark of 147.

This race also looks to have been the plan for Discordantly who sports a first-time tongue tie and fell in last February's Punchestown Grand National Trial won by The Big Dog.

On only his second start for current connections Hill Sixteen ran some race in the Becher three weeks ago, beaten a nose by Snow Leopardess with Achille fifth, Kimberlite Candy seventh and Mac Tottie falling. Previously Mac Tottie won the Grand Sefton at Aintree but he wouldn't be guaranteed to stay this trip.

Hold That Taught looks the pick of Venetia Williams' two runners and Maddy Playle has made the case for Eva's Oskar in the Weekender but in a very competitive race I think Hill Sixteen looks unexposed while Captain Drake is overpriced at 40/1. 

Stablemate Ask Me Early was ante-post favourite for this race before taking a heavy fall on the schooling grounds. In a recent stable tour, Harry Fry said of Captain Drake:

"It always takes him a run or two to get into the swing of things and the plan is to go for the Welsh National again, having finished fourth last season. The problem we face is he's 8lb lower than 12 months ago, so it'll be touch and go as to if he gets in at the weights. He's a proper mudlark and I feel he could run a big race if he gets in. I know he's not the easiest horse to catch right, but there's a big handicap in him."

He's eight pounds 'wrong' tomorrow but Lorcan Murtagh can claim three and connections have opted to try blinkers for the first time.

At the time of writing Paddy Power stand out offering 40/1 and pay six places.

Captain Drake is the each-way suggestion.

Christmas conundrums at the 2021 Ascot races

The Long Walk Hurdle (2.25 Ascot) poses a bit of a Christmas conundrum this year with pre-race favourite Buzz now a non-runner after suffering a fractured pelvis in his final piece of work this morning.

Thyme Hill struggled in the ground at Auteuil six weeks ago, Paisley Park was beaten fair and square last time but conqueror Thomas Darby hasn't been the most consistent in the past. Champ goes well fresh but was beaten after the first in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last March while Ronald Pump is certainly consistent but Matthew Smith's charge has yet to register a victory at Grade 1 level.

All rather trappy stuff, so instead I've decided to concentrate on the Betfair Exchange Trophy (3.35) for which fourteen have been declared; the going at the time of writing is described as good to soft, soft in places.

Two pieces of recent form tie in a few of these - last month's Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham and the listed December Handicap Hurdle run at Sandown a fortnight ago. 

Historically horses that have run in the Greatwood don't have a good record in this race. 

West Cork won this year's renewal of the Greatwood with No Ordinary Joe third and Tritonic fifth. The trio look closely matched on revised ratings: West Cork 141 (+7); No Ordinary Joe 136 (+3); Tritonic 141 (-1). 

Speaking about Tritonic in the Weekender Alan King states:

"...he'll have sharpened up mentally by that first run in a large field over hurdles [in the Greatwood]. 

"I hope and think he'll run well."

No Ordinary Joe looked no ordinary ride at Cheltenham, allowed to go to the front after the first but unable to go with West Cork and Adagio when challenged at the last.

At Sandown two weeks ago Samarrive arrived at the winning post eight and a half lengths ahead of everything else with Benson fourth and 100/30 favourite Metier pulled up. The handicapper has hit the winner with an 11 pound rise while both Benson and Metier carry two pounds less. 

Metier ran with the choke out that day before being pulled up from home; jockey Sam Twiston-Davies reported 'the gelding hung badly left-handed throughout and as a result was unsteerable'. In the Weekender trainer Harry Fry states:

"I think in retrospect we might have let him bowl along and not try to restrain him. One poor run does not turn a very good horse into a bad one and I'm sure he'll bounce back."  

I've seen money for Goshen during the week following an upbeat update from handler Gary Moore. A course and distance winner, Goshen was beaten 11 lengths by Buzz over an extended trip in the Coral Hurdle here last month and has been dropped four pounds for that effort.

Luttrell Lad was sent off favourite for the Persian War Novices' Hurdle at Chepstow in October but had no chance with stablemate Camprond (subsequently fourth in the Greatwood off 140) and then may have 'bumped into one' when beaten by Jpr One at even money in an Exeter novices' hurdle the following month. This is his first run in a handicap. 

The course commentator told punters at Newbury three weeks ago Onemorefortheroad was never a good idea and, with Neil King's charge priced up the outsider of four, perhaps that was sound advice - sound advice a few of us at the track decided to ignore. 

Probably for the first time since the Great Frost of 1709 such outright brazen chutzpah was rewarded; in a tactical affair Onemorefortheroad (8/1) set off in front and stayed there, coming home ahead of Captain Morgs, Gowel Road and 2021 Betfair Hurdle winner Soaring Glory. I was particularly impressed with the winner's hurdling that day; the handicapper has adjusted his rating upwards by just three pounds.

Running over this course and distance last month, Garry Clermont looked the winner racing to the last but a messy leap allowed Captain Morgs to claim the spoils. I imagine connections will be a little miffed to have been hit with a five pound penalty for that effort.

Llandinabo Lad looked to have benefitted from the wind surgery carried out in the autumn when second at Bangor five weeks ago but the suspicion is he'd prefer more give underfoot.while Drop The Anchor's seventh behind Belfast Banter in the County Hurdle (beaten under four lengths) reads well.

Two years ago Mack The Man beat Protektorat at Sandown and was thereabouts when brought down at the final flight in the 2020 Betfair Hurdle won by Pic D'Orhy. Third in the Imperial Cup in March, his chance off a low weight is respected but the stats appear against Global Citizen - no horse older than seven has won this in the past twenty years.

We have seen some smaller fields in recent times (13 runners in 2018 and 2019) but with 14 declared tomorrow this still looks highly competitive - more Christmas conundrums than you can shake a stick at. 

The two on the shortlist are Onemorefortheroad and Benson - with preference for the latter at the odds available.

Last year Benson won Sandown's December Handicap Hurdle and then, racing off a mark of 137, was sent off 5/1 joint favourite for this, eventually finishing fourth after struggling in rear for much of the trip; he goes off 133 tomorrow. 

Beaten just under 14 lengths by Samarrive at Sandown two weeks ago, Dr Richard Newland's charge re-opposes 13 pounds better off; the vet reported the gelding lost his right fore shoe at Sandown. I'm hoping the application of a first-time visor can help to bring about the further improvement required.

Benson is the each-way suggestion, with Paddy Power and Betfair offering 14/1 at the time of writing and paying five places.

The 2021 Racing Post Gold Cup

Whatever the ramifications of the Robbie Dunne / Bryony Frost case, the sport hasn't been seen in the best light in the past fortnight.

Fourteen go to post for tomorrow's Racing Post Gold Cup Handicap Chase (1.50 Cheltenham) with the going on the New Course at Prestbury Park currently described as good to soft, good in places.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup, run over two miles four furlongs on the Old Course, often acts as a useful guide; in last month's renewal Midnight Shadow came home in front with Lalor third, Dostal Phil fourth, Zanza equal sixth, Deyrann De Carjac eleventh and Coole Cody falling at the penultimate flight when still in the lead; less than six lengths covered the first six home. Tomorrow's race, run over a half furlong further, is generally considered a stiffer test.

Lalor's third in the Paddy Power off 149 on his first run for the Nicholls yard has impressed the layers who have Paul Nicholls' charge clear favourite. 

The gelding races off 151 tomorrow; since 2000 only two horses have won off an official rating higher than 150 - Poquelin twice (151 in 2010; 163 in 2011) and Frodon (164 in 2018).

In the immediate aftermath of last month's success connections of Midnight Shadow talked of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day; they've decided to take their chance in this off 154 (raised seven pounds). Sue Smith's charge likes it around here and should give a good account. The last horse to win the Paddy Power and this race in the same season was Exotic Dancer in 2006.

In my book Coole Cody isn't the most reliable at his obstacles but he had jumped well at the head of affairs last time before coming to grief two from home; he certainly looked booked for a place in a race where a number in the field struggled to land a blow. Of those racing midfield, the two Philip Hobbs trained runners, Dostal Phil and Zanza, made up most ground, the former finishing fourth (beaten three and a quarter lengths) and the latter equal sixth (beaten five and threequarters lengths). 

On his first run in a handicap, course and distance winner Fusil Raffles brings strong form to the table. He was a fortunate winner of the Charlie Hall last time out but prior to that finished second behind Chantry House in the Marsh Novices' Chase at the Festival in March. One slight concern - all his chasing experience has been gained in small fields.

Silver Hallmark boasts two pieces of eye-catching form with Fiddlerontheroof (second in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury a fortnight ago). The layers certainly aren't taking any chances; I'm not tempted by one making his debut at this track with just three chase starts to his name.

Beakstown has yet to win a chase but has run well here previously and is seven pounds well in on his hurdle rating. 

The booking of Rachael Blackmore for Farinet stands out but the suspicion is this one would prefer a little more cut under foot while stablemate Cepage is a course and distance winner but was pulled up in this race last year. The top weight faces a stiff task - since 2000 only Frodon has managed to carry that burden to victory.  

Topofthecostwolds unseated Sam Twiston-Davies at Newbury a fortnight ago - this looks tough - while Francky Du Berlais won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen but hasn't been in quite the same form since returning from a break. That said, last time out he ran well for a long way over the National fences in the Grand Sefton won by stablemate Mac Tottie.  

Two at bigger prices that may at least be worth a second look are Siruh Du Lac and Deyrann De Carjac. 

I tipped the former for the 2020 Paddy Power Gold Cup (overjumped the first and unseated Tom Scudamore) on the back of two pieces of form: his victory in the 2019 renewal of the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase at the Festival; in the same race the following year - won by Simply The Betts - he was one length to the good when coming to grief two from home. He looks to have had his problems since but made a satisfactory return in a three mile novice hurdle seven weeks ago.

I tipped the latter for the 2021 Paddy Power Gold Cup on the back of his two-length third behind Midnight Shadow in 2020 Dipper Novices' Chase and some bullish comments from Alan King in the Weekender. He finished eleventh, beaten under 10 lengths, but he raced detached at the rear of the field most of the way and at one stage looked likely to be pulled up on his first run since June. He has been nibbled at in the market (50/1 in places earlier today) and I note Brendan Powell replaces Tom Cannon in the plate. 

Plenty with chances - Zanza made impressive late headway in the Paddy Power last month and he gets the vote; this stiffer test should suit. 

Zanza is the each-way suggestion, generally quoted a 12/1 chance; William Hill, Betfred, Paddy Power and Sky Bet are paying one fifth the odds five places. 

Aintree December 2021 - an outsider for the finale

Some top class racing on offer tomorrow and I usually like a bet in the Becher Chase at Aintree but instead I'm going to take a chance on one in the finale at 3.15: the Unibet - 2021 Horserace Betting Operator Of The Year Handicap Hurdle.

Fifteen have been declared; the going is described as soft, good to soft in places.

A few in the field, having tried their luck over the bigger obstacles, now revert to hurdles. 

Both Midnight River and Carys' Commodity came to grief on their chase debut while Kateson beat Eternally Yours in this race last year off a mark of 134 but was well beaten in a novices' handicap chase here last time out.

Favourite Tamar Bridge made all to win a Wetherby novice hurdle in some style last time. 

His eight and a half length defeat of Bass Rock in a match at Ayr in March reads well as Bass Rock comfortably won a Class 2 handicap hurdle at Carlisle in October (Albert's Back 41 lengths adrift in sixth) and then ran creditably to finish third behind Dans Le Vent at Haydock a fortnight ago. Has Olly Murphy's charge been let in lightly on his first run in a handicap? 

Pounding Poet was second behind Mackelduff over course and distance last time out with Winningseverything fourth; the pair look closely matched once again. 

Winningseverything and Martinhal were withdrawn from the Haydock race won by Dans Le Vent on account of quick ground. Both should find underfoot conditions more to their liking here; Harry Fry's charge is fitted with a first-time tongue-tie.

Martinhal looks unexposed; his three wins to date have come at right-handed tracks (Exeter twice and Huntingdon). Back in January he beat Karl Philippe with the third that day, Gladiateur Allen, edging out Elixir De Nutz by a nose in a hot-looking novice chase on Haldon Hill this afternoon.

Elvis Mail has five pounds in hand of his chase rating but most of his runs have been around the two mile mark - a comment that also applies to Highway One O Two - while Storm Nelson makes a delayed seasonal debut following a dirty scope and doesn't look particularly well-handicapped.

Ballyandy isn't getting any younger but he could easily be competitive off a mark of 140 - and Finn Lambert claims ten pounds.

A difficult race in which it's possible to make the case for one or two at bigger prices; I'm going to chance Straw Fan Jack.

As well as training horses in Brecon, Sheila Lewis also owns and runs a beauty salon and she has made no secret of the fact that Straw Fan Jack is the apple of her eye. 

Conceding 11 pounds the grey was beaten a head by Fifty Ball in a novice handicap hurdle at Ascot (October 2020; Fifty Ball subsequently second in the 2021 Betfair Hurdle behind Soaring Glory) before winning a novice hurdle at this track by 30 lengths. 

Conceding 21 pounds he was beaten a head by Samba Dancer at Cheltenham on seasonal debut before finishing midfield in the Greatwood Hurdle three weeks ago. I think the track and trip here will suit better, as will the cut underfoot; the booking of Aidan Coleman catches the eye.

With Sky Bet paying five places and offering 14/1 at the time of writing, Straw Fan Jack is the each-way suggestion.

The 2021 Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury

As I'm off to the track tomorrow, I took the trouble to tune in to Racing TV's 'Newbury Gallops Morning' broadcast a week or so ago. 

Below, abbreviated comments on those declared for tomorrow's feature, the Ladbrokes Trophy (3.00); make of these notes whatever you will.

Copperhead: Likely to need the run.

Full Back: Has not always jumped well in the past (pulled up behind Remastered in the Reynoldstown).

Demachine: Good jumper, best fresh, trip a worry; outstayed by Remastered in the Reynoldstown.

Enrilo: Cobden tells trainer the horse doesn't want to pull up!

Kitty's Light: Prefers nice ground - found ground holding in the Charlie Hall. Bids to become the first five-year-old to win; not the biggest, will be 'conservatively' ridden towards the rear in the early stages. 

Brave Eagle: First run has put him right.

Alan King tells readers of the Weekender that Potterman is a genuine good ground horse and this race has been the target all season. Canelo has 'come on plenty' for his pipe-opener at Bangor 'though he'll probably progress again for another outing'.

21 are set to face the starter; the official going is currently described as good to soft, good in places (watered). 

The Irish challenge is spearheaded by Eklat De Rire and Munster National winner Ontheropes; at the time of writing Eklat De Rire has come in for significant support and is the clear market leader. 

Henry De Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore won last weekend's feature, the Betfair Chase at Haydock, with A Plus Tard and, no doubt, are hoping to repeat the trick this weekend. Relatively unexposed, the gelding could be anything with just four chase starts to his name;  most of his racing has been on soft or heavy ground.

Trained by Willie Mullins Ontheropes has undergone a similar preparation to Total Recall who stayed on strongly after the last to collar Whisper on the run-in to collect the spoils for connections in 2017.

Enrilo heads the challengers based this side of the Irish Sea. 

Back in April he passed the post first in the bet365 Chase at Sandown but was subsequently disqualified and placed third after hanging left and hampering Kitty's Light on the run to the line. The race was awarded to Potterman in the stewards' room but, with just threequarters of a length separating the trio on the line, Kitty's Light appeared unfortunate. They look closely matched once again; Enrilo worked well in last week's gallop at the track.

Team Tizzard endured a torrid time of it last year but the operation is in rude health this term.

Fiddlerontheroof finished second behind Monkfish in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at Cheltenham in March and looked impressive at Carlisle last month. To date Fiddler has finished in the first three on all eight chase starts.  

Last year Cloth Cap made all off a mark of 136 to win 10 lengths (The Hollow Ginge fourth, with Mister Malarky and Potterman unseating; Danny Whizzbang and Copperhead pulled up). He was subsequently sent off 11/2 favourite for the Grand National at Aintree and was bang there four from home before stopping quickly. The horse had reportedly 'choked' and four days later underwent wind surgery. Dropped two pounds after a pipe-opener at Cheltenham last month, he goes off 154 this year and his chance is respected.

Writing in the Weekender Alistair Jones highlights the importance of a good start and a prominent pitch in this race. That piece of advice strikes a particular personal chord - in recent years a number of my selections have been beaten by the time they've reached the first fence: Label Des Obeaux (2017); American (2018); and Daklondike (2019). Aye Right fared better last year in second.

Remastered would be of interest with more cut underfoot while it's possible to make a case for The Hollow Ginge and Mister Malarky. Both are inconsistent but The Hollow Ginge returned from his summer break in fine form at Cheltenham five weeks ago.

Of those at bigger prices, Brave Eagle (eighth behind De Rasher Counter in 2019 off 158) starts off a mark of 149 tomorrow and on ground that suits can run well at odds of 50/1. I'm also intrigued by Fortescue - trainer Henry Daly isn't known for running horses out of their grade.

Cloth Cap bids to join the likes of Mandarin, Arkle and Denman who have won this famous old race twice. Jonjo O'Neill's charge jumped well and won last year's renewal in a fast time; he'll encounter similar conditions tomorrow. 

Ideally I prefer a younger horse for this but at the time of writing the 14/1 on offer from Paddy Power is too much of a temptation.

Cloth Cap (14/1) is the each-way suggestion with Paddy Power paying six places.

A quick footnote to finish... 

I think two are certainly worthy of a second look in the handicap hurdle at 2.25: 

Annsam was beaten two and a quarter lengths by Calva D'Auge at Kempton last time. Isabel Williams (rode Dans Le Vent to victory in the Stayers' Hurdle at Haydock last weekend) is booked and can claim five. At the time of writing Calva D'Auge is generally 8/1 while Annsam is 16/1 with Paddy Power.

Course and distance winner Dorking Boy won last time out, enjoys a fast pace and is considered best on a flat, galloping track. Early in the week Stan Sheppard was jocked up for the ride but I see he has opted instead for Dorking Boy's stablemate Glory And Fortune (beat Dans Le Vent four lengths in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and then finished a respectable sixth in the Greatwood). With conditions to suit, Dorking Boy might be overpriced at 18/1.

The 2021 Betfair Exchange Stayers' Handicap Hurdle at Haydock

From the business section of my paper today: PG Tips sold for 4.5 billion euros. Funny that, no one has been in touch - and Christmas is just around the corner too.

Earlier this week I was asked what I'd like for Christmas this year. Reflex reply: a 20/1 winner; after some further consideration: a 33/1 winner.

Or perhaps a copy of Victor Chandler's biography Victor Chandler - Put Your Life On It: Staying At The Top In The Cut-Throat World Of Gambling by Jamie Reid.

Tomorrow's Betfair Chase at Haydock looks a particularly strong renewal but I've spent / wasted my time looking at the Betfair Exchange Stayers' Handicap Hurdle due off at 2.25. Sixteen have been declared with the going on the hurdle course described as good to soft, good in places.

Last season Emmet Mullins made a number of successful raids this side of the Irish Sea (think The Shunter and Cape Gentleman) so perhaps it's no surprise to the well-named Rightplacerightime at the head of the market. Rated 108 over hurdles in Ireland, the gelding races off mark of 125 tomorrow after winning a three mile beginners' chase at Fairyhouse 'easily' by seven and a half lengths.

The Charles Byrnes trained Doctor Duffy looks more feasibly treated. With Irish ratings of 147 (chase) and 137 (hurdles), he starts off 139 tomorrow; the majority of his recent runs have been at right-handed tracks. 

Orbys Legend (13/2) is well fancied after winning the Silver Trophy at Chepstow six weeks ago (beat Didtheyleaveuoutto a length) - that race has been a good pointer for this in the past - but, as Maddy Playle points out in the Weekender, Martinhal had Orbys Legend over 13 lengths in arrears at Exeter in February yet David Pipe's horse is currently quoted at 33/1 in places for tomorrow's race.

Prior to that run Martinhal gave Gladiateur Allen five pounds in a maiden hurdle at the Devon track and won three lengths; Mrs Jane Williams' charge is 16/1. 

I'm not sure I quite understand what's going on - little new there - but I'm assuming layers think underfoot conditions won't suit Martinhal.

And look at this... 

Winningseverything finished a neck ahead of Riggs at Aintree last time yet Riggs is 13/2 while the Harry Fry inmate is 40/1 in places. Admittedly, Harry Skelton may have overdone waiting tactics at Aintree over the shorter trip yet Winningseverything lost two places near the finishing line. Wind surgery carried out in the summer seems to have helped the Fry horse; connections fit a tongue-tie for the first-time tomorrow.

Bass Rock won well on seasonal debut at Carlisle three weeks ago for a yard whose runners generally improve for their first run. The handicapper has raised him seven pounds; this will be his first try at this distance.  

Isabel Williams certainly overdid the waiting tactics when finishing second on Dans Le Vent (trained by her father) in a strong-looking renewal of the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las last month. This one was quoted at 18/1 yesterday but is much shorter now.

Stoney Mountain collared my selection Acey Milan to win this race two years ago and I still haven't quite got over it. 

Now with Jamie Snowden, Stoney showed his current well-being by winning a Pertemps qualifier at Newbury 16 days ago, beating Didtheyleaveuoutto three quarters of a length. 

Clearly Nick Gifford's charge is in excellent form this term; after two creditable second places the handicapper has raised him seven pounds.

The Pipe stable has a decent record in this race having collected the spoils on four occasions since the first running in 2005: Grands Crus (2010); Dynaste (2011); Gevrey Chambertin (2013); and Main Fact (2020). I prefer Brinkley to Martinhal; he looks less exposed than a few in the field although all his winning form has come on soft or heavy ground. 

There has only been one winner older than seven - the Philip Hobbs trained Kruzhlinin aged nine in 2016.

Ask Dillon finished sixth behind Mrs Milner in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham in March (reversing Exeter form with Brinkley in twelfth and Chepstow form with Storm Arising in fourteenth). 

His fourth behind Main Fact in this race last year reads well (led two out, headed approaching last) but this season novice chasing plans appear to have gone awry and he was subsequently beaten a fair way out in the bet365 Hurdle at Wetherby three weeks ago. With jockey allowances taken into account he effectively starts off a mark one pound lower than in last year's renewal. 

In a competitive renewal a couple seem overpriced by my reckoning but the two on the short shortlist are Didtheyleaveuoutto and Brinkley. 

The former brings strong recent form to the table, stays, and will handle underfoot conditions. He's priced around the 12/1 mark. 

Tom Scudamore is on record saying ideally connections would want more cut underfoot for Brinkley but at the time of writing this one is quoted 20/1 with Sky Bet who pay six places.

Brinkley is the each-way suggestion. 

Cheltenham November meeting 2021 - Paddy Power Gold Cup

Last year, despite slipping badly after the fourth, Coole Cody went on to win an extraordinary renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup (run over the Old Course) with a display of jumping I described at the time as 'hairy'; that day Spiritofthegames finished second, Al Dancer third, Simply The Betts sixth with Aso the last of the 16 runners to complete in seventh.

Four weeks later Evan Williams' charge jumped right on occasions when finishing sixth behind Chatham Street Lad in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (run over the New Course) with Midnight Shadow second and Al Dancer ninth. He subsequently finished fourth behind The Shunter in the Paddy Power Plate at the Festival and fourth behind Manofthemountain over the New Course in April. 

Quite clearly dear old Coole Cody loves the place - as his prep last month he raced over the hurdle track and was headed by Guard Your Dreams on the run up the hill - and tomorrow he tries to repeat last year's victory off a mark four pounds higher. The layers rate him a 16/1 shot but even at the age of ten it would be foolish to discount his chance.

Twenty go to post; the going is described as good, good to soft in places. 

This evening there appears to be a three-way fight for favouritism between Lalor, Protektorat and Al Dancer.

Lalor last won a race in 2018, underwent wind surgery in July and has only recently moved from Kayley Woollacott to Paul Nicholls.

Protektorat won the SSS Super Alloys Novices' Chase over course and distance twelve months ago and last time out beat The Shunter at Aintree. Only three six-year-olds have come home in front in the past 20 years: Celestial Gold (2004); Exotic Dancer (2006); and Johns Spirit (2013). 

Sent off 5/1 favourite last year, Al Dancer finished four and a half lengths third behind Coole Cody off a mark of 154; he races off 149 tomorrow and has recently moved to Sam Thomas' yard.

Top weight Simply The Betts is another to have undergone wind surgery in the summer and then move to Paul Nicholls' yard. I think I'm correct in saying that the last top weight to oblige was Bradbury Star in 1994.

Galahad Quest had a pipe-opener at Wetherby a fortnight ago and bids to become the third five-year-old winner after Cyfor Malta (1998) and Caid Du Berlais (2014).

After a promising start Caribean Boy didn't really live up to expectations last season but Spiritofthegames has decent form at the track - second in the race last year and a head second behind Warthog in the 2019 Caspian Caviar Gold Cup - while Manofthemountain jumped well to win the Ballymore Silver Trophy in April (Coole Cody fourth). 

Five weeks ago Paint The Dream beat Manofthemountain nine and a half lengths in the John Ayres Memorial Handicap Chase at Chepstow; on revised terms the former looks weighted to confirm that form but still looks to have his fair share of weight.

Here's the heads up - I've had Midnight Shadow pencilled in for this since that second behind Chatham Street Lad last December; his third behind Allmankind in the Old Roan last month looks an excellent preparatory run.

Going back to New Year's Day 2020, Sue Smith's charge somewhat fortuitously beat Paint The Dream one and a quarter lengths in the Dipper after Champ came a cropper two from home; the Alan King trained Deyrann De Carjac was a further threequarters of a length behind in third.

After reading Alan King's bullish note about Deyrann De Carjac in the Weekender, I looked through the form. Not to beat about the bush, he's had his problems in recent times but two years ago he won a Huntingdon novice chase with the likes of Pym, Whatmore and El Presente in arrears. 

The handler tells us his charge is 'not badly treated off 137 judged on his best form' and states:

"His preparation has been great and he seems to have put behind him the niggles that hindered him last season. He schooled on Monday and seems in good order. He is a good-ground horse..." 

At the time of writing Midnight Shadow is generally a 10/1 shot while Deyrann De Carjac is 33/1 - and Sky Bet are paying seven places.

Temptation, it's a terrible thing... Deyrann De Carjac is the each-way selection, 33/1 with Sky Bet.

To finish, a quick footnote for the fastidious...

The 'Straight from the Stable' feature in this week's RP Weekender features Donald McCain's Bankhouse stables in Cholmondeley, Cheshire. 

I don't know what the editors were up to but, untypically, the copy is littered with typographical errors and in places reads as though it was dictated over a mobile phone with poor reception:

Of See The Sea (7 b m Born To Sea - Shahmina):

"It could be a case that she could shoulder a race (sic) in a higher class race."

Of Bannixtown Glory (7 b m Fame And Glory - Me Auold Segosha):

"I understand Dan Skelton has Molly Ollys Wishes targeted at the same race, but it's grand a chance to add more black type to her broodmare page."

Of Chti Balko (9 br g Balko - Ina Scoop):

"A grand old horse who simply wants Haydock on very deep ground and when he comes ready and the conditions are right we will."

For the record, my own editor, a lugubrious individual who drones on incessantly about the old days, is usually to be found in a battered shed at the bottom of our garden, surrounded by empty bottles of craft ale.

The 2021 Grand Sefton Handicap Chase

Owen Paterson may have been in the supermarket yesterday when he learnt of Boris Johnson's latest handbrake turn -  at this stage it's unclear whether Mr Paterson was in the middle of a big shop down the Asda or picking up a few bits and pieces in the local Nisa - but how about this for an unexpected item in the bagging area: they've brought the Grand Sefton forward four weeks. Whatever next?

Fourteen have been declared for tomorrow's renewal which is usually run when we're all supposed to be doing our Christmas shopping; the going on the National course is currently described as soft, good to soft in places.

I've checked it out - just four of the fourteen have jumped the National fences before and a couple on the list look decidedly short on chase experience, including the well-touted manager's special, Midlands Grand National winner Time To Get Up; the concern is the trip may be on the sharp side for the J.P.McManus owned runner.

Cat Tiger showed a liking for these fences when finishing third behind Cousin Pascal in the Foxhunters' Chase run over course and distance in the spring while Senior Citizen finished seventh in last year's race and then a highly creditable third behind easy winner Livelovelaugh in the Topham (Sir Jack Yeats fifth).

Alan King's inmate swept down the home straight in the manner of a well-oiled trolley to win at Market Rasen last month (Francky Du Berlais 31 lengths adrift in sixth) and this race is his autumn target. In the RP Weekender the trainer states:

"He just doesn't want really soft ground as he doesn't quite get home." 

Jamie Snowden's two runners are certain to attract the attention of punters. 

Hogan's Height won the 2019 renewal 16 lengths and had a pipe-opener over hurdles at Newton Abbot last month.

Thomas Macdonagh has only contested five steeplechases to date but, in his 'Straight from the Stable' tour (RP Weekender 29.09.21 - 03.10.21), Snowden says:

"His final run of last season was a very good one when second to Informateur at Haydock off a mark of 131. He is a decent hurdler (rated 136) but has the potential to do even better over fences (130). He will be at his best on deep ground and the plan is to go for the Grand Sefton Chase at Aintree. I think a good gallop over 2m 4f will be ideal for him and he could be a very interesting contender."

Francky Du Berlais was impressive when winning the Market Rasen Summer Plate in July. 

The handicapper didn't give Peter Bowen any change after that, raising his charge ten pounds; he subsequently relented, dropping the gelding two after he came home well beaten behind Senior Citizen last month. Every little helps. On that form Francky will struggle to reverse placings.

Peter Bowen's other runner, Mac Tottie, has decent form on display and, despite the price, wouldn't be immediately discounted.

Spyglass Hill is worth another look on the back of his fifth behind Ontheropes in the Munster National last month - Ontheropes is quoted a 7/1 chance for the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in three weeks' time. 

After that race trainer Henry de Bromhead said connections thought 'that maybe the drop back in trip might suit him.'

After a quick scan I see that Five Star Getaway finished a long way behind Paint The Dream at Chepstow and doesn't have that much experience over fences, in marked contrast to The West's Awake and Via Dolorosa. The latter moved to David Pipe's yard last month so this looks an intriguing first run for new connections, although Tom Scudamore is aboard Time To Get Up.

Dr Richard Newland won last year's renewal with Beau Bay; he saddles Al Roc this time who has his third run in this country and second following wind surgery in January. The run over hurdles at Warwick last time should ensure he won't be left on the shelf. 

I always prefer one that has jumped the unique National fences previously for this and Sir Jack Yeats fits the bill. 

He finished second last year from three pounds out of the handicap, leading to the elbow before being passed by Beau Bay. 

Sir Jack races off the same mark tomorrow (126) with a weight of 10-6. 

Earlier in the week I'm sure seven pound claimer Angus Cheleda was jocked up but I'm pleased to see handler Richard Spencer has used his loyalty card and put James Best up; James was aboard last year and in the Topham as well. 

Last season the gelding came into the race with a couple of warm-up runs under the belt so I'm taking fitness on trust; I'd expect to see him racing up with the pace.

At the time of writing Paddy Power offer 14/1 and pay one fifth the odds five places; Sir Jack Yeats is the each-way suggestion. 

I should point out that, in the event of a disappointing performance, in line with stated policy no refunds or exchanges can be given.