Friday, November 19, 2021

The 2021 Betfair Exchange Stayers' Handicap Hurdle at Haydock

From the business section of my paper today: PG Tips sold for 4.5 billion euros. Funny that, no one has been in touch - and Christmas is just around the corner too.

Earlier this week I was asked what I'd like for Christmas this year. Reflex reply: a 20/1 winner; after some further consideration: a 33/1 winner.

Or perhaps a copy of Victor Chandler's biography Victor Chandler - Put Your Life On It: Staying At The Top In The Cut-Throat World Of Gambling by Jamie Reid.

Tomorrow's Betfair Chase at Haydock looks a particularly strong renewal but I've spent / wasted my time looking at the Betfair Exchange Stayers' Handicap Hurdle due off at 2.25. Sixteen have been declared with the going on the hurdle course described as good to soft, good in places.

Last season Emmet Mullins made a number of successful raids this side of the Irish Sea (think The Shunter and Cape Gentleman) so perhaps it's no surprise to the well-named Rightplacerightime at the head of the market. Rated 108 over hurdles in Ireland, the gelding races off mark of 125 tomorrow after winning a three mile beginners' chase at Fairyhouse 'easily' by seven and a half lengths.

The Charles Byrnes trained Doctor Duffy looks more feasibly treated. With Irish ratings of 147 (chase) and 137 (hurdles), he starts off 139 tomorrow; the majority of his recent runs have been at right-handed tracks. 

Orbys Legend (13/2) is well fancied after winning the Silver Trophy at Chepstow six weeks ago (beat Didtheyleaveuoutto a length) - that race has been a good pointer for this in the past - but, as Maddy Playle points out in the Weekender, Martinhal had Orbys Legend over 13 lengths in arrears at Exeter in February yet David Pipe's horse is currently quoted at 33/1 in places for tomorrow's race.

Prior to that run Martinhal gave Gladiateur Allen five pounds in a maiden hurdle at the Devon track and won three lengths; Mrs Jane Williams' charge is 16/1. 

I'm not sure I quite understand what's going on - little new there - but I'm assuming layers think underfoot conditions won't suit Martinhal.

And look at this... 

Winningseverything finished a neck ahead of Riggs at Aintree last time yet Riggs is 13/2 while the Harry Fry inmate is 40/1 in places. Admittedly, Harry Skelton may have overdone waiting tactics at Aintree over the shorter trip yet Winningseverything lost two places near the finishing line. Wind surgery carried out in the summer seems to have helped the Fry horse; connections fit a tongue-tie for the first-time tomorrow.

Bass Rock won well on seasonal debut at Carlisle three weeks ago for a yard whose runners generally improve for their first run. The handicapper has raised him seven pounds; this will be his first try at this distance.  

Isabel Williams certainly overdid the waiting tactics when finishing second on Dans Le Vent (trained by her father) in a strong-looking renewal of the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las last month. This one was quoted at 18/1 yesterday but is much shorter now.

Stoney Mountain collared my selection Acey Milan to win this race two years ago and I still haven't quite got over it. 

Now with Jamie Snowden, Stoney showed his current well-being by winning a Pertemps qualifier at Newbury 16 days ago, beating Didtheyleaveuoutto three quarters of a length. 

Clearly Nick Gifford's charge is in excellent form this term; after two creditable second places the handicapper has raised him seven pounds.

The Pipe stable has a decent record in this race having collected the spoils on four occasions since the first running in 2005: Grands Crus (2010); Dynaste (2011); Gevrey Chambertin (2013); and Main Fact (2020). I prefer Brinkley to Martinhal; he looks less exposed than a few in the field although all his winning form has come on soft or heavy ground. 

There has only been one winner older than seven - the Philip Hobbs trained Kruzhlinin aged nine in 2016.

Ask Dillon finished sixth behind Mrs Milner in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham in March (reversing Exeter form with Brinkley in twelfth and Chepstow form with Storm Arising in fourteenth). 

His fourth behind Main Fact in this race last year reads well (led two out, headed approaching last) but this season novice chasing plans appear to have gone awry and he was subsequently beaten a fair way out in the bet365 Hurdle at Wetherby three weeks ago. With jockey allowances taken into account he effectively starts off a mark one pound lower than in last year's renewal. 

In a competitive renewal a couple seem overpriced by my reckoning but the two on the short shortlist are Didtheyleaveuoutto and Brinkley. 

The former brings strong recent form to the table, stays, and will handle underfoot conditions. He's priced around the 12/1 mark. 

Tom Scudamore is on record saying ideally connections would want more cut underfoot for Brinkley but at the time of writing this one is quoted 20/1 with Sky Bet who pay six places.

Brinkley is the each-way suggestion. 


Anonymous said...

Betfair Exchange Stayers' Handicap Hurdle

162,DANS LE VENT(FR),7.2
164,BASS ROCK(FR),7.1

The system can see the potential value in Brinkley, less so in Didtheyleaveuoutto.

The system considers Ask Dillon the value bet in the race. Chasing does not look like it is going to be AD’s cup of tea but a big field 3m handicap hurdle ran on G,GS ground does look to be his tipple, ran well enough last time out in a graded race, back in handicap company today another bold show looks likely for in-form connections. 7yo+ age stats not ideal but I’ll take a chance at 22/1 [6 places 1/5 odds].

Good luck!


GeeDee said...

Thanks for providing your ratings, TW.

If Ask Dillon brings his A game to the table, should certainly be in the mix. Fourth last year and sixth in the Pertemps Final - both strong pieces of form.

Good luck!

Anonymous said...

Four non-runners (including Brinkley [Going]) have altered the complexion of the race.

164,ASK DILLON(IRE),13.7
164,BASS ROCK(FR),9.4
162,DANS LE VENT(FR),8.8

I've topped up on Ask Dillion [20/1 5 Places, 1/5 odds] in the revised market. Didtheyleaveuoutto has been drifter this morning and is now out to a price, in the new market, that the system would consider value.


GeeDee said...


Wish I'd left out that Didtheyleaveuoutto - finished stone cold last. Still weeping.

GeeDee said...

Selection Brinkley was declared a non-runner on account of the quick ground (along with Martinhal, Storm Arising and Winningseverything).

Racing in the rear, the other one on the short shortlist, Didtheyleavuoutto (16/1), ran the sort of race that would make anyone wonder how he ever made it to the short shortlist in the first place.

As they quickened up off a sedate early pace, he was in some trouble down the back straight and was then left behind from three out, eventually coming home last, over 30 lengths behind impressive winner Dans Le Vent (16/1).

Isabel Williams gave her horse a confident ride, going past Riggs (11/1) on the run-in to score by one and a quarter lengths, with Bass Rock (13/2) posting a good effort to finish third and Stoney Mountain (22/1) fourth.

Back to the drawing board, as they say.

Anonymous said...

I had twice as much as I'd originally planned on Ask Dillon [2nd last] at odds of less than SP.

Do you have any spare drawing boards?