You know, it's a week for trials...
On Thursday Harry Redknapp was reported to have said 'I have never written a letter in my life' yet I'm sure I can recall the Tottenham manager having written the occasional column for the Racing Post in the past. Harry also claimed his English wasn't up to scratch and he couldn't spell for toffee but he certainly appears a bit better at Maths as he allegedly asked for a 10% cut of the £3 million profit cleared when England striker Peter Crouch moved from Portsmouth. Hmmm, I'm sure the judge will get to the bottom of it all.
From one trial with its tribulations to several...
The decision of connections to withdraw Grand Crus from the Argento Chase, the feature at Cheltenham's Festival Trials Day, has changed the look of the race completely. I fancied Midnight Chase, fifth in last year's Gold Cup, to offer some each-way value at around 9/1 but this evening he's just 6s, with Ladbrokes going noticeably shorter at 9/2. On ratings the three to concentrate on are Captain Chris, Diamond Harry and Tidal Bay. Captain Chris has done most of his racing over shorter distances but looked to stay the trip when third behind Kauto Star in the King George; I've tipped Diamond Harry a couple of times to date but this talented, notoriously fragile individual has twice been withdrawn on the morning of a big race; and Tidal Bay is something of an enigma. Discussing this race with a colleague, he felt Midnight Chase had seen his best days - I'm not convinced and I feel he shows his best form on good ground but Diamond Harry is the suggestion.
The Triumph Hurdle Trial should prove informative and to my mind looks more comepttive than the market would have us believe. Hinterland (runs in the handicap hurdle at 4.15) looks a useful benchmark - Paul Nicholls' charge beat Hollow Tree three lengths giving that runner-up four pounds but was subsequently beaten seven lengths (conceding seven pounds) by Baby Mix. As a play against likely favourite Grumeti I slightly prefer Tom George's course and distance winner Baby Mix to Nicholls runner Pearl Swan.
I considered Hell's Bay each-way (16/1) in the 2.05 but recent stable form is off-putting.
In the Cleeve Hurdle (3.40) Big Buck's bids for his fifteenth consecutive win but it would be worth remembering he won't be fully wound up for this - the World Hurdle in March being the main target. Connections opted to run here last weekend; the general view is Big Buck's will be some 10 pounds off his best which may give connections of Mourad cause for hope although Willie Mullins' charge also has the World Hurdle as his aim....
Friday, January 27, 2012
Friday, January 20, 2012
The Ascot and Haydock features
Ascot's Victor Chandler Chase (3.10) looks a trappy affair. Layers have priced up Nicky Henderson's Finian's Rainbow the favourite; of the eight runners in the field seven have an official rating and in the eyes of the handicapper Finian's Rainbow is the sixth best horse in the race, looking to find some nine pounds with top-rated animal Somersby. Henrietta Knight's charge hasn't won over two miles since December 2009 and last time finished fourth behind Kauto Star in the King George, a trip of three miles - here connections try cheek pieces for the first time but his chance is respected. Al Ferof is a novice of considerable potential - his neck defeat of For Non Stop at Sandown last time wasn't done any favours when the runner-up was beaten four lengths in receipt of seven pounds from Cue Card at Newbury. I've had my fingers burned a couple of times with Wishfull Thinking this season; Philip Hobbs' horse weakened three out in the Paddy Power Chase at Cheltenham's Open meeting before ruining his chance by racing far too freely in the Tingle Creek. The last time Richard Johnson held his mount up and that tactic appeared to work better with Wishfull Thinking going down threequarters of a length to Finian's Rainbow (receiving one pound) in Kempton's Desert Orchid Chase (Oiseau De Nuit in third). In that race Finian's Rainbow blundered badly four from home but recovered well to take the spoils on the run-in while once again Wishfull Thinking, whose breathing problems have been well documented, didn't look the easiest of rides and appeared to hang slightly left at the obstacles up the home straight. Trappy indeed, but at the prices on offer I'm going to give Wishfull Thinking (13/2) one more chance while I wouldn't put anyone off having an each-way dabble on Oiseau De Nuit (40/1 with the sponsors) provided the eight make it to post.
The feature at Haydock, where there is a precautionary inspection at 8.00 am, is the Peter Marsh Chase; the going is reported as heavy. At twelve years old Grand National winner Mon Mome isn't getting any younger but he put in an eye-catching round behind Mostly Bob at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Venetia Williams' charge was fourth in this race last year carrying 11-10 off a mark of 156; this year he's on a mark of 145 and carries 11-8 so I'm thinking he could be in the mix - he's worth an each-way interest at around the 8/1 mark.
The feature at Haydock, where there is a precautionary inspection at 8.00 am, is the Peter Marsh Chase; the going is reported as heavy. At twelve years old Grand National winner Mon Mome isn't getting any younger but he put in an eye-catching round behind Mostly Bob at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Venetia Williams' charge was fourth in this race last year carrying 11-10 off a mark of 156; this year he's on a mark of 145 and carries 11-8 so I'm thinking he could be in the mix - he's worth an each-way interest at around the 8/1 mark.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Saturday's Warwick card
Warwick is a few short miles down the road from here but I haven't attended a meeting there for well over ten years; I find the hill in the middle of the course particularly disconcerting. However, I've had my leave form signed off so tomorrow I'll put the concerns to one side for the Classic Chase meeting, the course's best jumps card of the year. The going is described as good to soft with soft places on the hurdles course - most people think it will ride 'dead' as there has been very little rain during the week. This is my thinking at the moment...
12.50 Novices' Handicap Hurdle. No selection.
1.25 3 mile Novices' Chase. Four of the seven have an official rating and of those Frascati Park, priced up favourite this evening, is best served by race conditions. I'm tempted to chance Emma Lavelle's unexposed gelding Court Victory. In a recent Stable Tour article the trainer described her charge as a giant, measuring 17.3hh. This sharpish track may not be ideal and he may need a bit more cut but the trip should suit and the accurate jumping he displayed last time at Uttoxeter should serve him well down the back straight where the fences come thick and fast. In the past Golden Chieftain has been seen to have problems in the jumping department. Only one favourite has obliged in the past six renewals, with either the second or third favourite taking the spoils on the other five occasions.
2.00 2 mile Handicap Chase. Previous course and distance winner Marodima made all to win over two and a half miles at Fontwell on Thursday and is priced up favourite on the back of that. A talented individual who was something of a tearaway in his younger days, he's more settled now but may struggle to build up a lead against these. Educated Evans makes more appeal than Roi De Rose who has tended to race over further and has blinkers fitted for the first time. I'd forgive Tara Royal his last effort - 10/1 could look big after the event.
2.30 3 mile one furlong handicap hurdle. Looks incredibly competitive. Two each-way chances against the field - Barwell Bridge (9/1) ran well on his seasonal debut at Wincanton 19 days ago while Venetia Williams' runners are currently in exceptional form and Aachen (20/1) catches my eye. Tenth in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival, he's never really delivered to his potential but connections try cheek pieces for the first time; he travelled well for a long way at Bangor the last time before fading badly.
3.05 Leamington Novices' Hurdle (2m 5f). The favourite has taken five of the last six renewals and Emma Lavelle appears particularly bullish about the chances of her well-regarded gelding Highand Lodge (owned by the marvellously-named syndicate 'The Unusual Suspects'). There are some interesting sorts in this, including Cotton Mill and Ambion Wood; on balance I'm not inclined to oppose the favourite.
3.40 Classic Chase (3m 5f). Six of the 14 runners are set to carry more than their long handicap weight. In the past those who have run in the Welsh National have struggled here - this year Bench Warrent finished fifth, Hey Big Spender fell and Blazing Bailey was pulled up. I quietly fancied Neptune Equester at Wetherby last time but he lost touch mid-race before staying on again in the Rowland Meyrick. The trainer put that down to a slow pace so I'm going to stay with Neptune Equester who looks nicely weighted and has Aidan Coleman in the saddle.
4.00 Bumper. No selection.
12.50 Novices' Handicap Hurdle. No selection.
1.25 3 mile Novices' Chase. Four of the seven have an official rating and of those Frascati Park, priced up favourite this evening, is best served by race conditions. I'm tempted to chance Emma Lavelle's unexposed gelding Court Victory. In a recent Stable Tour article the trainer described her charge as a giant, measuring 17.3hh. This sharpish track may not be ideal and he may need a bit more cut but the trip should suit and the accurate jumping he displayed last time at Uttoxeter should serve him well down the back straight where the fences come thick and fast. In the past Golden Chieftain has been seen to have problems in the jumping department. Only one favourite has obliged in the past six renewals, with either the second or third favourite taking the spoils on the other five occasions.
2.00 2 mile Handicap Chase. Previous course and distance winner Marodima made all to win over two and a half miles at Fontwell on Thursday and is priced up favourite on the back of that. A talented individual who was something of a tearaway in his younger days, he's more settled now but may struggle to build up a lead against these. Educated Evans makes more appeal than Roi De Rose who has tended to race over further and has blinkers fitted for the first time. I'd forgive Tara Royal his last effort - 10/1 could look big after the event.
2.30 3 mile one furlong handicap hurdle. Looks incredibly competitive. Two each-way chances against the field - Barwell Bridge (9/1) ran well on his seasonal debut at Wincanton 19 days ago while Venetia Williams' runners are currently in exceptional form and Aachen (20/1) catches my eye. Tenth in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival, he's never really delivered to his potential but connections try cheek pieces for the first time; he travelled well for a long way at Bangor the last time before fading badly.
3.05 Leamington Novices' Hurdle (2m 5f). The favourite has taken five of the last six renewals and Emma Lavelle appears particularly bullish about the chances of her well-regarded gelding Highand Lodge (owned by the marvellously-named syndicate 'The Unusual Suspects'). There are some interesting sorts in this, including Cotton Mill and Ambion Wood; on balance I'm not inclined to oppose the favourite.
3.40 Classic Chase (3m 5f). Six of the 14 runners are set to carry more than their long handicap weight. In the past those who have run in the Welsh National have struggled here - this year Bench Warrent finished fifth, Hey Big Spender fell and Blazing Bailey was pulled up. I quietly fancied Neptune Equester at Wetherby last time but he lost touch mid-race before staying on again in the Rowland Meyrick. The trainer put that down to a slow pace so I'm going to stay with Neptune Equester who looks nicely weighted and has Aidan Coleman in the saddle.
4.00 Bumper. No selection.
Friday, January 06, 2012
Time for the Tolworth
Only five declared for the Tolworth at Sandown tomorrow; a big run can be expected from both Propsect Wells and Colour Squadron while Nicky Henderson's Captain Conan has some smart French form to his name and could be anything. January is usually a quiet month for the Nicholls yard and connections have admitted their decision to let Propsect Wells take his chance here was 'an afterthought'. Colour Squadron makes more appeal, with underfoot conditions likely to suit Philip Hobbs' charge. Colour Squadron (2/1 generally) is the selection.
Other very quick notes...
The Strawberry One (4/1 this evening) has just one pound to find with top-rated Kaffie (7/4) on official ratings in the opener. She is considered, although it's worth noting her wins to date have come on good ground or quicker.
Course and distance winner Dave's Dream looks overpriced at 9/1 in the 2.05 and should be thereabouts granted a decent round of jumping. He merits each-way support, with David Bass claiming a valuable three pounds.
Other very quick notes...
The Strawberry One (4/1 this evening) has just one pound to find with top-rated Kaffie (7/4) on official ratings in the opener. She is considered, although it's worth noting her wins to date have come on good ground or quicker.
Course and distance winner Dave's Dream looks overpriced at 9/1 in the 2.05 and should be thereabouts granted a decent round of jumping. He merits each-way support, with David Bass claiming a valuable three pounds.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
New Year's Day 2012
Plum Pudding (18/1) may have been a topical winner of today's 2.20 at Warwick but he must rank as the luckiest winner of the year as first fence faller Tafika was still loose some six minutes after his tumble and hampered leading horse and 5/1 favourite Glens Boy in the shadow of the post to gift the race to the outsider. It certainly didn't make for the best of viewing, being described as 'carnage' by one commentator.
With that occurence in mind, here are some tentative suggestions for New Year's Day 2012 in this 800th blog post...
Cheltenham 1.05: Invictus (11/4 Ladbrokes) appeals as a play against likely favourtie Sonofvic. Sonofvic didn't look the most fluent of jumpers when going down to Grand Crus at Newbury on his first try over the larger obstacles.
Musselburgh 1.15: Bourne has to give 15 pounds to Eagle Rock but could offer value.
Musselburgh 2.25: I'm a fan of Marsh Warbler (fifth in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot last time) but I'm not convinced the going or this track will see him to best advantage. Desert Cry, part-owned by Everton manager David Moyes, looked a very tricky ride in that same Ascot race.
Exeter 12.40: Theatrical Star has been quite highly tried and is an each-way wager if the tissue price of 12/1 becomes available on the day.
Exeter 2.55: I'd chance Penny Max against Golden Chieftain.
Exeter 4.00: Two to monitor in the bumper - Philip Hobbs' Billesley Road and Xaarcet, described in the autumn by Colin Tizzard as 'probably our best unraced horse for the season'.
Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a happy and prosperous new year.
With that occurence in mind, here are some tentative suggestions for New Year's Day 2012 in this 800th blog post...
Cheltenham 1.05: Invictus (11/4 Ladbrokes) appeals as a play against likely favourtie Sonofvic. Sonofvic didn't look the most fluent of jumpers when going down to Grand Crus at Newbury on his first try over the larger obstacles.
Musselburgh 1.15: Bourne has to give 15 pounds to Eagle Rock but could offer value.
Musselburgh 2.25: I'm a fan of Marsh Warbler (fifth in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot last time) but I'm not convinced the going or this track will see him to best advantage. Desert Cry, part-owned by Everton manager David Moyes, looked a very tricky ride in that same Ascot race.
Exeter 12.40: Theatrical Star has been quite highly tried and is an each-way wager if the tissue price of 12/1 becomes available on the day.
Exeter 2.55: I'd chance Penny Max against Golden Chieftain.
Exeter 4.00: Two to monitor in the bumper - Philip Hobbs' Billesley Road and Xaarcet, described in the autumn by Colin Tizzard as 'probably our best unraced horse for the season'.
Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a happy and prosperous new year.
Friday, December 30, 2011
The final day of 2011
The last cards of 2011 have an end of year feel to them. Betfair will certainly be hoping for better things in 2012 following the recent fiasco surrounding their in-running market for the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. One year ago Betfair shares traded at 964p; this evening they closed at 752.50p, having recorded a twelve month high of 1054p in January.
At Newbury Philip Hobbs' Fingal Bay will be expected to take the Challow at 3.05 while the novice chase run an hour earlier should prove informative with an eye on the future. Alan King's Walkon has been touted by several but this will be no walk in the park with Colin Tizzard's Cue Card in the line-up as well as For Non Stop from the in-form Nick Williams yard. For Non Stop went down a neck to Al Ferof (quoted a 7/1 chance for the Arkle) in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown four weeks ago; layers currently offer 20/1 about Walkon for the Cheltenham race. In the light of that, Ladbrokes' price of 11/4 about For Non Stop for tomorrow's event is of some interest.
Olofi goes in the finale and deserves a change of luck, having run some sound races in defeat. Naively I'd hoped for an each-way price but this evening he's generally on offer at 5/1 with William Hill going 6/1; I think I'll wait until next year for my next bet.
At Newbury Philip Hobbs' Fingal Bay will be expected to take the Challow at 3.05 while the novice chase run an hour earlier should prove informative with an eye on the future. Alan King's Walkon has been touted by several but this will be no walk in the park with Colin Tizzard's Cue Card in the line-up as well as For Non Stop from the in-form Nick Williams yard. For Non Stop went down a neck to Al Ferof (quoted a 7/1 chance for the Arkle) in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown four weeks ago; layers currently offer 20/1 about Walkon for the Cheltenham race. In the light of that, Ladbrokes' price of 11/4 about For Non Stop for tomorrow's event is of some interest.
Olofi goes in the finale and deserves a change of luck, having run some sound races in defeat. Naively I'd hoped for an each-way price but this evening he's generally on offer at 5/1 with William Hill going 6/1; I think I'll wait until next year for my next bet.
Monday, December 26, 2011
Welsh National 2011
As always, particularly competitive but Richard Lee's Le Beau Bai catches the eye at the right end of the handicap. He's not the biggest of individuals but the heavy going should prove right up his street. Third in the 2009 running off a mark of 148, he goes here off 127 having won over the course at the beginning of the month; the yard had a welcome winner with 13 year old Victory Gunner earlier today. Suggestion: Le Beau Bai each-way (10/1 Betfred).
Friday, December 23, 2011
A quick Boxing Day selection box
Kempton's King George VI Chase is the Boxing Day highlight with eight declared. Long Run is the top-rated animal; he's never been the one to trust implicitly at the fences but his class has seen him through more often than not. In the Betfair at Haydock he was beaten eight lengths by Kauto Star but put in a couple of howlers down the back straight second time around and should strip fitter here. Today's Times reports that a set of golden plates have been created for Kauto and will be presented to his trainer Paul Nicholls before the race. Master Minded, Captain Chris and Somersby have stamina questions to answer but Diamond Harry will stay on this his first try going right-handed. He was 18 lengths behind in the Betfair but Barry Geraghty takes the ride and looks value at 16/1 provided the eight go to post. Favourites have an excellent record in this race but I'll take an each-way interest in Diamond Harry who won't be inconvenienced by further rain.
Binocular won the Christmas Hurdle last year but the race was mid-January - the horse's record before new year's day of a season isn't particularly encouraging. The yard is bullish but connections were before the Fighting Fifth - I'm not tempted.
Grand Crus has looked impressive over the larger obstacles this season and is fanceid to get the better of Bobs Worth whose jumping wasn't foot-perfect last time at Newbury when just catching Cue Card on the line. The Pipe yard hasn't totally discounted a stab at the Gold Cup with their novice.
Two worth a second look...
Wetherby 1.45 - Neptune Equester
Wincanton 2.15 - Tante Sissi.
Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a very merry Christmas.
Binocular won the Christmas Hurdle last year but the race was mid-January - the horse's record before new year's day of a season isn't particularly encouraging. The yard is bullish but connections were before the Fighting Fifth - I'm not tempted.
Grand Crus has looked impressive over the larger obstacles this season and is fanceid to get the better of Bobs Worth whose jumping wasn't foot-perfect last time at Newbury when just catching Cue Card on the line. The Pipe yard hasn't totally discounted a stab at the Gold Cup with their novice.
Two worth a second look...
Wetherby 1.45 - Neptune Equester
Wincanton 2.15 - Tante Sissi.
Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a very merry Christmas.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
The Ghost of Christmas Past
There is something awful about Christmas; I'm sure I'm not alone when I say the one thing that keeps me going at this time of year is the thought of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. With a sense of deja vu, I quickly trawled back through previous Christmas posts, just to ensure I hadn't started to mellow in old age...
Last year racing was in the midst of the big freeze; I was reduced to penning an article on train-spotting of all things.
2009's entry attempted to sum up a racing man's Christmas while in earlier years I tried to stimulate some artificial jollity by recommending racing related games to readers. In 2007 Horsey Hoppers looked something of a dodgy also-ran but The Really Nasty Horse Racing Game (2006) proved an outright winner.
In today's Sunday Telegraph Rose Prince's 10 ways to kickstart Christmas has palpably failed to lift my spirits and wandering thoughts of warmer weather in the summer only bring back to mind the time John Parrott swindled me out of a small fortune on a Cardiff pub quiz machine.
Have yourselves a merry little Christmas...
Last year racing was in the midst of the big freeze; I was reduced to penning an article on train-spotting of all things.
2009's entry attempted to sum up a racing man's Christmas while in earlier years I tried to stimulate some artificial jollity by recommending racing related games to readers. In 2007 Horsey Hoppers looked something of a dodgy also-ran but The Really Nasty Horse Racing Game (2006) proved an outright winner.
In today's Sunday Telegraph Rose Prince's 10 ways to kickstart Christmas has palpably failed to lift my spirits and wandering thoughts of warmer weather in the summer only bring back to mind the time John Parrott swindled me out of a small fortune on a Cardiff pub quiz machine.
Have yourselves a merry little Christmas...
Friday, December 16, 2011
Ladbroke hurdle @ Ascot
Popped up and busted for time: one selection - Marsh Warbler (14/1) each way in the Ladbroke Hurdle (3.35 Ascot) provided going is soft.
Friday, December 09, 2011
The International Hurdle at Cheltenham
A decent card at Cheltenham tomorrow where the feature Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup with 17 runners will generate plenty of bettng activity but I find the International Hurdle at 3.05 much more intriguing. After sending out 5 winners from 10 runners today, Nicky Henderson saddles one of the two four-year-olds in the field, Grandouet. The opposition includes last year's winner Menorah, the four-year-old Greatwood winner Brampour as well as the front-running Overturn who has done this blog a favour in the past couple of weeks with wins at Ascot and Newcastle. I'm loathe to desert Overturn but he's had two tough races in the past three weeks; immediately after the Fighting Fifth connections indicated they would give their charge a break so it's a surprise to see him out again so quickly. There's also a hint he carries out his front running role better on a flat track. I always think this race is a big ask for a four-year-old; in the past decade two have managed to pull off the trick, Detroit City in 2006 and Binocular in 2008. This year on official ratings Grandouet has five pounds in hand over Brampour and Harry Dereham, conditional jockey of the latter-named, can't claim seven pounds in this event. Menorah reverts to hurdles after unseating two from home at Exeter last time with a novice chase at his mercy; his chance is very much respected but 14/1 Clerk's Choice looks too big a price about a horse that finished two lengths behind Menorah in the Champion Hurdle reopposing here on four pounds better terms. There are mitigating circumstances - Menorah has already had that spin at Exeter and Clerk's Choice went to Oliver Sherwood's yard in unfortunate circumstances when the lass who looked after the horse broke her pelvis in an accident. Still, this race has been the target, the quick ground will suit and I still recall the horse bolting up over course and distance fourteen months ago, beating Barizan and Royal Mix in the process. Provided the rain stays away and the eight get to post, Clerk's Choice each-way at around 14/1 is the wager.
In the Relkeel (3.35) Oscar Whisky is the likeliest winner and is likely to start odds-on; in my opinion he's a horse who benefits from cut underfoot. On official ratings Any Given Day has two pounds to find and at 9/2 represents a play against the favourite for those brave enough.
This evening layers are taking differing views on the trappy-looking three mile novice hurdle at 1.55 which Mossley (runs in 12.45) won last year. Paddy Power go 7/4 about Halley while Coral and Ladbrokes offer 7/2. I was interested in Tim Vaughan's Rev It Up but according to his handler the gelding is better on soft ground so I'm going to watch from the sidelines.
In the Relkeel (3.35) Oscar Whisky is the likeliest winner and is likely to start odds-on; in my opinion he's a horse who benefits from cut underfoot. On official ratings Any Given Day has two pounds to find and at 9/2 represents a play against the favourite for those brave enough.
This evening layers are taking differing views on the trappy-looking three mile novice hurdle at 1.55 which Mossley (runs in 12.45) won last year. Paddy Power go 7/4 about Halley while Coral and Ladbrokes offer 7/2. I was interested in Tim Vaughan's Rev It Up but according to his handler the gelding is better on soft ground so I'm going to watch from the sidelines.
Friday, December 02, 2011
The Tingle Creek and the Becher feature
A cursory glance at tomorrow's Tingle Creek and Champion Chase winner Sizing Europe looks the one. With Tataniano now written off for the season, the current champion has 13 pounds in hand over nearest rival Wishfull Thinking. The market has priced the race accordingly; it's worth noting that the favourite has obliged on five occasions in the past decade and in that time the biggest-priced winner was 6/1 shot Cenkos in 2002. Having said all that, Sizing Europe had a right hard race over a mile further in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal four weeks ago where he ran out of petrol on the run-in and was passed by Quito De La Roque. It's difficult to know how much that race will have taken out of him. Wishfull Thinking raced from the front in the Paddy Power over an extra half-mile but faded into sixth at the business end and was reported 'very thick in his wind' afterwards; Philip Hobbs, never one to talk up his horses for the sake of it, does not think his charge will be done for pace. While Kauto Stone could be one for the future, it's worth remembering this particular track provides a stern examination of any youngster's jumping but course and distance winner Gauvain isn't totally written off, although I've never found the gelding easy to win with. Sizing Europe is the clear form choice and 6/4 will look easy money to many but in search of a bit of value I'm going to chance Wishfull Thinking at around 3/1. Once again he's likely to race to the fore so at least I'll know my fate soon enough.
At Aintree the feature is The Becher Chase (2.10) run over the National fences. Fifteen go to post and there are plenty with chances including last year's winner Hello Bud who tries to repeat the trick just a couple of weeks short of his 14th birthday. I like a horse at a price with form over the fences in a race such as this and, to be honest, I'm struggling to find something to fit the bill. Niche Market appeals having finished fifth in the National but 8/1 is short enough and the layers are similarly shy about Topham winner Always Waining. Alan King holds National aspirations for West End Rocker and the bay looked unlucky to be brought down at Becher's in the spring so at around 14/1 I'll take a small each-way interest; he didn't shine on his seasonal debut around Cheltenham so connections will be hoping for a better showing here from their Warwick Classic Chase winner.
The opener at the same course sees a clash between Keys and Cinders And Ashes; the last time the pair met the former prevailed by a short-head in a Cheltenham bumper. Cinders And Ashes should come on for his seasonal debut two weeks ago while Keys was last seen finishing down the field in the Cesarewitch. In my book Cinders And Ashes will represent a play against likely favourite Keys if priced 11/4 or bigger.
At Aintree the feature is The Becher Chase (2.10) run over the National fences. Fifteen go to post and there are plenty with chances including last year's winner Hello Bud who tries to repeat the trick just a couple of weeks short of his 14th birthday. I like a horse at a price with form over the fences in a race such as this and, to be honest, I'm struggling to find something to fit the bill. Niche Market appeals having finished fifth in the National but 8/1 is short enough and the layers are similarly shy about Topham winner Always Waining. Alan King holds National aspirations for West End Rocker and the bay looked unlucky to be brought down at Becher's in the spring so at around 14/1 I'll take a small each-way interest; he didn't shine on his seasonal debut around Cheltenham so connections will be hoping for a better showing here from their Warwick Classic Chase winner.
The opener at the same course sees a clash between Keys and Cinders And Ashes; the last time the pair met the former prevailed by a short-head in a Cheltenham bumper. Cinders And Ashes should come on for his seasonal debut two weeks ago while Keys was last seen finishing down the field in the Cesarewitch. In my book Cinders And Ashes will represent a play against likely favourite Keys if priced 11/4 or bigger.
Friday, November 25, 2011
The Hennessy and the Fighting Fifth
After Kauto's heroics in last week's Betfair Chase, this week's Hennessy just hasn't captured the imagination. Old-timers such as myself often witter on about the Hennessy going to a young up-and-coming sort but as Tom Segal points out in the Weekender, last season's top novices looked distinctly average in the Betfair. I bet Aiteen Thirtythree in the RSA last March but he's not the most proficient of jumpers; Wymott's stable jock Jason Maguire prefers Peddlers Cross at Bangor and a quick trip to Newcastle to partner Overturn; Great Endeavour looked good in the Paddy Power but hasn't won over further than two miles six while The Giant Bolster has failed to complete on four of his six chase starts. So, of the younger brigade, Wayward Prince, third in the RSA and fourth behind the well-regarded Quito De La Roque at Aintree three weeks later (Sarando beaten just a neck into second) makes some appeal; trainer Ian Williams sounds hopeful enough and in the past fortnight has sent out seven winners from 36 runners. Of the more established entrants, top weight Neptune Collonges has Harry Dereham take seven pounds off but didn't really hit the heights last season following a long break after injury - since 1957 only three horses older than nine have won: Mandarin (1961), Rondetto (1967) and Diamond Edge (1981). Blazing Bailey is an outside chance while there's a hint Beshabar has the National as his target. Running one pound out of the handicap, Carruthers finished sixth in this last year off a mark of 155 - he returns this time off 146 and ran well on his seasonal debut behind Galaxy Rock at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. Connections try a tongue-tie for the first-time - 20/1 with totesport looks reasonable each-way value. This evening two layers offer a quarter the odds five places on this race - bet365 and Paddy Power.
The sole tip to oblige last week was Overturn and many will tell me that was only because Oscar Whisky fell when challenging at the last. That said, I'm not inclined to desert him against former champion hurdler Binocular in the Fighting Fifth. Nicky Henderson's charge has been sent off an odds-on chance in this race on each of the past two runnings and has been beaten on both occasions. The word from the Henderson yard is their charge is fit and ready this year. Celestial Halo is worthy of every respect but at this evening's prices the 7/2 Ladbrokes offer about Overturn looks particularly tempting.
Big Buck's returns in Newbury's Long Distance Hurdle (2.35); pilot Ruby Walsh was stood down after a fall from Sollim earlier today but he is expected to be fit to ride tomorrow.
All eyes will be on Peddlers Cross who continues his education over the larger obstacles in the opener at Bangor (12.10). At the same track Scholastica goes in the concluding mares' bumper (3.35) and is worth noting for future reference whatever happens here.
The sole tip to oblige last week was Overturn and many will tell me that was only because Oscar Whisky fell when challenging at the last. That said, I'm not inclined to desert him against former champion hurdler Binocular in the Fighting Fifth. Nicky Henderson's charge has been sent off an odds-on chance in this race on each of the past two runnings and has been beaten on both occasions. The word from the Henderson yard is their charge is fit and ready this year. Celestial Halo is worthy of every respect but at this evening's prices the 7/2 Ladbrokes offer about Overturn looks particularly tempting.
Big Buck's returns in Newbury's Long Distance Hurdle (2.35); pilot Ruby Walsh was stood down after a fall from Sollim earlier today but he is expected to be fit to ride tomorrow.
All eyes will be on Peddlers Cross who continues his education over the larger obstacles in the opener at Bangor (12.10). At the same track Scholastica goes in the concluding mares' bumper (3.35) and is worth noting for future reference whatever happens here.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Haydock and Ascot
At 3.05 tomorrow all eyes will be on Haydock's Betfair Chase as Long Run makes his first appearance on a racecourse after winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup last March. He faces five opponents and on official ratings has upwards of twelve pounds in hand over his rivals; owner Robert Waley-Cohen believes the only thing that can stop his pride and joy here is a lack of race fitness. I'm cautious and with Long Run priced odds-on I prefer to look elsewhere for some value. During the week Paul Nicholls indicated he has done plenty of work with previous Gold Cup winner Kauto Star who is some six weeks away from his 12th birthday. In the past Nicholls has used this race as a stepping stone to the King George and the Gold Cup but the implication is Kauto will not lack for fitness - this time it's the younger horse who has those races as targets. The predicted ground may help Kauto's cause a bit but these days I tend to see Haydock as more of a speed track - the likelihood is a younger animal will go by the former champion up the long home straight. Having said that, should Kauto win, there won't be a dry eye in the house.
That's the Gold Cup winners dealt with! Weird Al raised a few eyebrows on his first run for the McCain stable when beating Time For Rupert three and a half lengths in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby; that was Rupert's first run since disappointing in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival where he broke a blood vessel. Paul Webber's charge wasn't foot perfect at his fences last time and would be entitled to come on for that run - I'm not convinced placings will be confirmed. Earlier today a tweet from well-repsected observer NarrowTheField highlighted Weird Al's form in chases with less than ten runners 111-1-1 so he looks to have every chance and Timmy Murphy is riding exceptionally well at the moment. Hennessy winner Diamond Harry is very talented but notoriously fragile; he was favourite for the Charlie Hall three weeks ago but was found lame on the morning of the race. He goes well fresh and has been allocated the best speed rating in the Weekender; if he makes it to the course in one piece, he represents a value play at 5/1 or bigger - Diamond Harry gets the vote.
Plenty of old friends (and foes) in the three mile fixed brush handicap hurdle at 2.30. We've seen several of these over fences and one or two will be looking to exploit a more lenient hurdle rating, including Robinson Collonges (chase rating 148, hurdle rating 136); Synchronised (chase rating 155, hurdle rating 147) and Sa Suffit (chase rating 144, hurdle rating 135). No bet for me in this ultra competitive event but I hope old favourite Knockara Beau, who never really took to chasing, is fit enough to do himself justice on this seasonal debut.
Nicky Henderson is in fine form with five winners bagged earlier today; his Grandouet goes in the opener, having taken a crashing fall at Wincanton a fortnight ago. Although an odds-on chance here, he'll need to be at the top of his game to give Domtaline eight pounds. I like Marsh Warbler who has had a pipe-opener on the all-weather at Southwell but the penalty he carries makes things difficult. Tim Vaughan's First Fandago won over two and a half miles at Leicester on Monday and on official ratings isn't completely out of it while stablemate Rigidity was formerly with Sir Henry Cecil before showing promise at Edward O'Grady's over in Ireland.. For those brave enough, Paul Nicholls' Domtaline rates a play against the favourite (7/2 with William Hill this evening).
In the Coral Hurdle at Ascot the winner has come from the top two in the betting on nine occasions in the past decade; Silviniaco Conti was third best in the market when taking last year's renewal. Paul Nicholls fields another relatively unexposed sort in King Of The Night but I prefer Overturn to likely favourite Oscar Whisky - Henderson has indicated he is concerned about his charge giving eight pounds to the selection. Ladbrokes offer 3/1 about Overturn this evening.
Despite a field of just six the Amlin 1965 Chase looks very trappy. Master Minded wasn't convincing first time up in Aintree's Old Roan Chase; as he's grown older he appears to need a bit of cut underfoot and he won't be certain to get it here. Connections have said Boxing Day is their target but if you want to oppose, what to choose? Alan King predicts a big run from Haldon Gold Cup winner Medermit but is under no illusion to the size of the task while improvement is expected from Kalahari King who sports a first-time tongue-tie. 8/1 Kalahari King looks value but that is nothing more than the most tentative of tentative suggestions...
That's the Gold Cup winners dealt with! Weird Al raised a few eyebrows on his first run for the McCain stable when beating Time For Rupert three and a half lengths in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby; that was Rupert's first run since disappointing in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival where he broke a blood vessel. Paul Webber's charge wasn't foot perfect at his fences last time and would be entitled to come on for that run - I'm not convinced placings will be confirmed. Earlier today a tweet from well-repsected observer NarrowTheField highlighted Weird Al's form in chases with less than ten runners 111-1-1 so he looks to have every chance and Timmy Murphy is riding exceptionally well at the moment. Hennessy winner Diamond Harry is very talented but notoriously fragile; he was favourite for the Charlie Hall three weeks ago but was found lame on the morning of the race. He goes well fresh and has been allocated the best speed rating in the Weekender; if he makes it to the course in one piece, he represents a value play at 5/1 or bigger - Diamond Harry gets the vote.
Plenty of old friends (and foes) in the three mile fixed brush handicap hurdle at 2.30. We've seen several of these over fences and one or two will be looking to exploit a more lenient hurdle rating, including Robinson Collonges (chase rating 148, hurdle rating 136); Synchronised (chase rating 155, hurdle rating 147) and Sa Suffit (chase rating 144, hurdle rating 135). No bet for me in this ultra competitive event but I hope old favourite Knockara Beau, who never really took to chasing, is fit enough to do himself justice on this seasonal debut.
Nicky Henderson is in fine form with five winners bagged earlier today; his Grandouet goes in the opener, having taken a crashing fall at Wincanton a fortnight ago. Although an odds-on chance here, he'll need to be at the top of his game to give Domtaline eight pounds. I like Marsh Warbler who has had a pipe-opener on the all-weather at Southwell but the penalty he carries makes things difficult. Tim Vaughan's First Fandago won over two and a half miles at Leicester on Monday and on official ratings isn't completely out of it while stablemate Rigidity was formerly with Sir Henry Cecil before showing promise at Edward O'Grady's over in Ireland.. For those brave enough, Paul Nicholls' Domtaline rates a play against the favourite (7/2 with William Hill this evening).
In the Coral Hurdle at Ascot the winner has come from the top two in the betting on nine occasions in the past decade; Silviniaco Conti was third best in the market when taking last year's renewal. Paul Nicholls fields another relatively unexposed sort in King Of The Night but I prefer Overturn to likely favourite Oscar Whisky - Henderson has indicated he is concerned about his charge giving eight pounds to the selection. Ladbrokes offer 3/1 about Overturn this evening.
Despite a field of just six the Amlin 1965 Chase looks very trappy. Master Minded wasn't convincing first time up in Aintree's Old Roan Chase; as he's grown older he appears to need a bit of cut underfoot and he won't be certain to get it here. Connections have said Boxing Day is their target but if you want to oppose, what to choose? Alan King predicts a big run from Haldon Gold Cup winner Medermit but is under no illusion to the size of the task while improvement is expected from Kalahari King who sports a first-time tongue-tie. 8/1 Kalahari King looks value but that is nothing more than the most tentative of tentative suggestions...
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Cheltenham Open meeting 2011 - Sunday
Very quick thoughts for Sunday...
The opener should prove informative. Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Al Ferof makes his chasing debut with Ruby Walsh in the plate. Trainer Paul Nicholls should have a decent idea about this one's chance as the stable's Toubab was beaten threequarters of a length by Lancetto who looks to face a tough task giving weight to this field.
The Greatwood Hurdle (2.20) is the feature and has been won by some decent sorts in the past including Menorah, Khyber Kim, Sizing Europe, Detroit City and Rooster Booster. The winner has come from the top two in the market seven times in the past decade but in the same timeframe only one four-year-old has collected the spoils (Detroit City, 2006). I like Colin Tizzard's Third Intention but this stat is a negative for that one.as well as his Ascot conqueror of two weeks ago Brampour. A number reoppose from the Ascot race including Via Galilei (second), the much-touted filly A Media Luz (third) who needs to give herself a chance by settling better, Nearby (seventh), Kumbeshwar (eighth) and Topolski (last). Pateese is the market leader on the back of an impressive victory at Sandown the last time, although you could argue jock Matt Griffiths nicked it from the front with a bold break for home two out. Back in March Pateese was beaten just over two lengths by Via Galilei at Newbury; Josh Moore's five pounds claim means the pair look closely matched again. Via Galilei was my idea of a wager but the ground appears to have gone against Gary Moore's charge so I'll maintain a watching brief.
On official ratings Woolcombe Folly has plenty in hand over his rivals in the Shloer Chase (1.45) but will be priced accordingly and I'll keep a close eye on African Broadway in the 3.30 for future reference.
The opener should prove informative. Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Al Ferof makes his chasing debut with Ruby Walsh in the plate. Trainer Paul Nicholls should have a decent idea about this one's chance as the stable's Toubab was beaten threequarters of a length by Lancetto who looks to face a tough task giving weight to this field.
The Greatwood Hurdle (2.20) is the feature and has been won by some decent sorts in the past including Menorah, Khyber Kim, Sizing Europe, Detroit City and Rooster Booster. The winner has come from the top two in the market seven times in the past decade but in the same timeframe only one four-year-old has collected the spoils (Detroit City, 2006). I like Colin Tizzard's Third Intention but this stat is a negative for that one.as well as his Ascot conqueror of two weeks ago Brampour. A number reoppose from the Ascot race including Via Galilei (second), the much-touted filly A Media Luz (third) who needs to give herself a chance by settling better, Nearby (seventh), Kumbeshwar (eighth) and Topolski (last). Pateese is the market leader on the back of an impressive victory at Sandown the last time, although you could argue jock Matt Griffiths nicked it from the front with a bold break for home two out. Back in March Pateese was beaten just over two lengths by Via Galilei at Newbury; Josh Moore's five pounds claim means the pair look closely matched again. Via Galilei was my idea of a wager but the ground appears to have gone against Gary Moore's charge so I'll maintain a watching brief.
On official ratings Woolcombe Folly has plenty in hand over his rivals in the Shloer Chase (1.45) but will be priced accordingly and I'll keep a close eye on African Broadway in the 3.30 for future reference.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Paddy Power Gold Cup 2011
The highlight on the second day of the Open meeting is the Paddy Power Gold Cup - 20 face the starter at 2.35. With the Paul Nicholls trained top weight Poquelin standing his ground, eight of the field will be running from out of the handicap - I've concentrated my limited efforts on the animals set to carry their correct weight.
Although a 20/1 shot won this last year, in general terms the market has proved a reasonable guide - four favourites have obliged in the past decade. Poquelin's stablemate Mon Parrain heads the betting; formerly with Guillaume Macaire this five-year-old was impressive on his British debut winning a Sandown handicap chase but there were a few questions when he was run out of it over the National fences in the Topham next time. This evening Mon Parrain is 7/2 with most layers but both Ladbrokes and William Hill take a stand offering 5/1. Cyfor Malta (1998) is the only five-year-old to win this since 1960 and as Nicholls has never trained the winner of this race I'm going to oppose...
Cyfor Malta was trained by Martin Pipe and memories of the good old days came flooding back earlier this afternoon when son David recorded a 186.5/1 treble with Swing Bill (9/1), Decoy (13/2) and Grand Crus (6/4f). The yard regularly targets this meeting and Great Endeavour warrants respect in tomorrow's renewal.I fancied the grey for this last year but he came home a slightly disappointing sixth, failing to land a serious blow.
Course and distance winner The Giant Bolster, named after a Cornish legend, is a horse who has done this blog a favour or two in recent years. His jumping went off the boil last term (unseated in RSA Chase and fell at Aintree) but David Bridgwater has had jumping guru Yogi Breisner out to his charge during the summer. The trainer is on record as saying he thinks this could be a Gold Cup horse.
Another course and distance winner Wishfull Thinking will not want for lack of support but in the run-up the Hobbs yard haven't been sure in which race to run their charge and have recorded just 3 wins from 35 runs in the past fortnight.
Of the other runners, I'm guessing Grand Annual winner Oiseau De Nuit (with Brendan Powell claiming ten pounds) is priced at 40/1 because the layers don't think he'll stay while 33/1 about Calgary Bay looks big given that he was beaten three and a half lengths by Wishfull Thinking here in January and is now 13 pounds better off.
In an ultra competitive event, I'll chance Wishfull Thinking (7/1 Betfred) with an each-way saver on The Giant Bolster (14/1 Coral). Best priced outsider - Calgary Bay (33/1).
I won't get involved in the finale but I hope to see Restless Harry win on his chase debut following a stunning performance in the John Smith's Hurdle at Wetherby last time; Viking Blond could be the one to benefit if the wheels were to come off.
Although a 20/1 shot won this last year, in general terms the market has proved a reasonable guide - four favourites have obliged in the past decade. Poquelin's stablemate Mon Parrain heads the betting; formerly with Guillaume Macaire this five-year-old was impressive on his British debut winning a Sandown handicap chase but there were a few questions when he was run out of it over the National fences in the Topham next time. This evening Mon Parrain is 7/2 with most layers but both Ladbrokes and William Hill take a stand offering 5/1. Cyfor Malta (1998) is the only five-year-old to win this since 1960 and as Nicholls has never trained the winner of this race I'm going to oppose...
Cyfor Malta was trained by Martin Pipe and memories of the good old days came flooding back earlier this afternoon when son David recorded a 186.5/1 treble with Swing Bill (9/1), Decoy (13/2) and Grand Crus (6/4f). The yard regularly targets this meeting and Great Endeavour warrants respect in tomorrow's renewal.I fancied the grey for this last year but he came home a slightly disappointing sixth, failing to land a serious blow.
Course and distance winner The Giant Bolster, named after a Cornish legend, is a horse who has done this blog a favour or two in recent years. His jumping went off the boil last term (unseated in RSA Chase and fell at Aintree) but David Bridgwater has had jumping guru Yogi Breisner out to his charge during the summer. The trainer is on record as saying he thinks this could be a Gold Cup horse.
Another course and distance winner Wishfull Thinking will not want for lack of support but in the run-up the Hobbs yard haven't been sure in which race to run their charge and have recorded just 3 wins from 35 runs in the past fortnight.
Of the other runners, I'm guessing Grand Annual winner Oiseau De Nuit (with Brendan Powell claiming ten pounds) is priced at 40/1 because the layers don't think he'll stay while 33/1 about Calgary Bay looks big given that he was beaten three and a half lengths by Wishfull Thinking here in January and is now 13 pounds better off.
In an ultra competitive event, I'll chance Wishfull Thinking (7/1 Betfred) with an each-way saver on The Giant Bolster (14/1 Coral). Best priced outsider - Calgary Bay (33/1).
I won't get involved in the finale but I hope to see Restless Harry win on his chase debut following a stunning performance in the John Smith's Hurdle at Wetherby last time; Viking Blond could be the one to benefit if the wheels were to come off.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Cheltenham Open meeting 2011 - Friday
The finale apart, tomorrow's opening card of the Open meeting is strangely uninspiring. Cue Card for me in the gloriously-named Steel Plate and Sections Novices' Chase which was won by Time For Rupert last year; David Pipe has said he would have ideally preferred the ground softer for Grand Crus who has come to hand quicker than expected but is reported likely to come on for the run.
Garde Champetre, with Nina Carberry in the plate, will be a warm order for the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase, having won over the course and distance on five previous occasions. J P McManus' gelding was beaten a neck in this last year and won the 2009 renewal from Heads Onthe Ground; the going on the cross country track is firm, good to firm in places.
There's a strong word for Jessica Harrington's Steps To Freedom in the novices' hurdle (2.55) but at the prices on offer I'm going to keep my powder dry.
Madcap each-way suggestion in the 3.30: Architrave (25/1 Paddy Power). I've read somewhere in the past couple of days this one has started to show some form at home of late - he sports a first time visor here. He went off the boil as last season progressed but later stomach ulcers were diagnosed. His sixth of 18 in Chepstow's Silver Trophy (beaten just over ten lengths) three weeks ago reads well enough and the ground should suit.
Somewhat later in the day than might have been expected, the BHA announced the much-touted amendments to the new whip rules. They come into operation with immediate effect and have been welcomed by the Professional Jockeys Association as well as by Open meeting sponsors Paddy Power.
Garde Champetre, with Nina Carberry in the plate, will be a warm order for the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase, having won over the course and distance on five previous occasions. J P McManus' gelding was beaten a neck in this last year and won the 2009 renewal from Heads Onthe Ground; the going on the cross country track is firm, good to firm in places.
There's a strong word for Jessica Harrington's Steps To Freedom in the novices' hurdle (2.55) but at the prices on offer I'm going to keep my powder dry.
Madcap each-way suggestion in the 3.30: Architrave (25/1 Paddy Power). I've read somewhere in the past couple of days this one has started to show some form at home of late - he sports a first time visor here. He went off the boil as last season progressed but later stomach ulcers were diagnosed. His sixth of 18 in Chepstow's Silver Trophy (beaten just over ten lengths) three weeks ago reads well enough and the ground should suit.
Somewhat later in the day than might have been expected, the BHA announced the much-touted amendments to the new whip rules. They come into operation with immediate effect and have been welcomed by the Professional Jockeys Association as well as by Open meeting sponsors Paddy Power.
Sunday, November 06, 2011
Football shorts
Cheer up Harry Redknapp... The Daily Mail reports that doctors have told the Spurs manager he has to stay away from work for another four or five weeks following minor heart surgery. Not too much of a problem for the likes of you and me, but Harry declares: 'This isn't going to stop me doing the job I love.' Under the circumstances then, you wouldn't have begrudged the Tottenham man a bit of good news in the first at Ffos Las today where his Bygones In Brid was sent off the 6/5 favourite. Unfortunately for Harry the wretched beast just hadn't read the script - the bay gelding was tailed off, finishing eighth of the ten runners. Later in the day Tottenham's 3-1 victory at Fulham was more what the doctor ordered but the radio commentary certainly wouldn't have made for easy listening...
Continuing on the subject of work, the fact Alan Hansen is paid £40,000 for every appearance on Match Of The Day has generated plenty of comment this week. Nice work if you can get it, as they say...
Finally, a word for Darren Deadman who refereed the recent Doncaster Rovers v Middlesborough match. Referee Deadman refused to book Doncaster's Billy Sharp after the striker scored a 'goal from heaven' and then revealed a message dedicating it to his son, Louis, who died aged two days old. Well done, Darren.
Continuing on the subject of work, the fact Alan Hansen is paid £40,000 for every appearance on Match Of The Day has generated plenty of comment this week. Nice work if you can get it, as they say...
Finally, a word for Darren Deadman who refereed the recent Doncaster Rovers v Middlesborough match. Referee Deadman refused to book Doncaster's Billy Sharp after the striker scored a 'goal from heaven' and then revealed a message dedicating it to his son, Louis, who died aged two days old. Well done, Darren.
Friday, November 04, 2011
From Wincanton to Down Royal
You tend to think of Wincanton as something of a speed track but the three miles one and a half furlongs of tomorrow's Badger Ales Trophy will take some getting on ground that is currently described as good to soft, soft in places. There has been plenty of rain around this evening too - a young lady walking home in front of me was carrying a very fetching Paddy Power umbrella which sported the wording '5/1 it blows over' - I wasn't remotely inclined to take the odds.
This year's Badger Ales wouldn't be the best renewal in recent years but it still looks pretty open with 14 set to face the starter. In the past ten years four favourites have obliged (Montifault 11/4 2001; Swansea Bay 2/1 2003; Royal Auclair 7/2jf 2004; Abrigante 15/8 2007) while five winners have been priced in double figures (Swansea Bay 14/1 2002; Iris Bleu 10/1 2005; Parsons Legacy 16/1 2006; Cornish Sett 12/1 2008; Ellerslie George 14/1 2009). In the same time frame no horse has been older than nine when winning so on grounds of age I'm going to discount Madison Du Berlais (the pick of Pipe's two on jockey bookings), Hello Bud and Gone To Lunch. Paul Nicholls won this last year with Meanus Dandy but this year stablemate The Minack is more likely to start favourite according to the layers. I've never been 100% convinced about The Minack after he nearly threw away a Kempton novice hurdle (January 2010) when hitting the front two from home. In a post three weeks ago I said I'd seen Benbane Head touted more times than I'd want to recall over the past year; he made a mistake early doors at Cheltenham in that race and was never really competitive thereafter. I'm tempted to go for a bigger-priced animal in this. At Ascot last weekend Dover's Hill got no further than the second when unseating Aidan Coleman and breaking the jock's collar bone in the process; he could go well provided the fences don't get in the way and a similar comment could apply to Vic Dartnall's course and distance winner Richard's Sundance. This horse went off the boil in the second part of last season so I'm taking plenty on trust here but the yard is flying at the moment (four wins from nine runs since October 21st) - Richard's Sundance each-way at 16/1 is the suggestion.
On paper the Elite looks between Grandouet and Celestial Halo but makes little appeal as a betting medium while I'm undecided about Silviniaco Conti in the novice chase. This is a horse I like but I burnt my fingers a couple of times last year and I'm just wary after he finished third behind Cue Card on his chasing debut. He's bound to come on for that and will be more suited by this trip but he's priced up at short odds in a race that is no foregone conclusion. Mad Moose has more chasing experience than the rest while Jetnova is an Irish pointer and Kilcrea Kim an exciting prospect. This evening Paddy Power offers 5/1 Kilcrea Kim which in my book represents a play against the favourite - Kilcrea Kim is the selection.
At Down Royal in Ireland Noel Fehily rides The Nightingale and Kauto Stone for Paul Nicholls as yesterday Ruby Walsh's lodged appeal against a five-day whip ban was unsuccessful. In today's Times Alan Lee reports that jockeys' leaders have admitted privately that 'their impasse with the BHA is at crisis point after this judgement.'
Seven go in a trappy-looking JNwine.com Champion Chase at 2.20. The two top-rated horses, Sizing Europe and The Nightingale, have yet to win at this distance while Quito De La Roque and Bostons Angel look out and out stayers - judging fitness for this first run won't be easy. Midnight Chase could surprise a few - he ran an excellent fifth in the Gold Cup last March - but he wouldn't want too much rain. Connections decided to bypass last week's Charlie Hall to come here (although I'm not totally convinced this is an easier option.) Midnight Chase is 6/1 with William Hill this evening - I'll take an interest provided the rain stays away.
This year's Badger Ales wouldn't be the best renewal in recent years but it still looks pretty open with 14 set to face the starter. In the past ten years four favourites have obliged (Montifault 11/4 2001; Swansea Bay 2/1 2003; Royal Auclair 7/2jf 2004; Abrigante 15/8 2007) while five winners have been priced in double figures (Swansea Bay 14/1 2002; Iris Bleu 10/1 2005; Parsons Legacy 16/1 2006; Cornish Sett 12/1 2008; Ellerslie George 14/1 2009). In the same time frame no horse has been older than nine when winning so on grounds of age I'm going to discount Madison Du Berlais (the pick of Pipe's two on jockey bookings), Hello Bud and Gone To Lunch. Paul Nicholls won this last year with Meanus Dandy but this year stablemate The Minack is more likely to start favourite according to the layers. I've never been 100% convinced about The Minack after he nearly threw away a Kempton novice hurdle (January 2010) when hitting the front two from home. In a post three weeks ago I said I'd seen Benbane Head touted more times than I'd want to recall over the past year; he made a mistake early doors at Cheltenham in that race and was never really competitive thereafter. I'm tempted to go for a bigger-priced animal in this. At Ascot last weekend Dover's Hill got no further than the second when unseating Aidan Coleman and breaking the jock's collar bone in the process; he could go well provided the fences don't get in the way and a similar comment could apply to Vic Dartnall's course and distance winner Richard's Sundance. This horse went off the boil in the second part of last season so I'm taking plenty on trust here but the yard is flying at the moment (four wins from nine runs since October 21st) - Richard's Sundance each-way at 16/1 is the suggestion.
On paper the Elite looks between Grandouet and Celestial Halo but makes little appeal as a betting medium while I'm undecided about Silviniaco Conti in the novice chase. This is a horse I like but I burnt my fingers a couple of times last year and I'm just wary after he finished third behind Cue Card on his chasing debut. He's bound to come on for that and will be more suited by this trip but he's priced up at short odds in a race that is no foregone conclusion. Mad Moose has more chasing experience than the rest while Jetnova is an Irish pointer and Kilcrea Kim an exciting prospect. This evening Paddy Power offers 5/1 Kilcrea Kim which in my book represents a play against the favourite - Kilcrea Kim is the selection.
At Down Royal in Ireland Noel Fehily rides The Nightingale and Kauto Stone for Paul Nicholls as yesterday Ruby Walsh's lodged appeal against a five-day whip ban was unsuccessful. In today's Times Alan Lee reports that jockeys' leaders have admitted privately that 'their impasse with the BHA is at crisis point after this judgement.'
Seven go in a trappy-looking JNwine.com Champion Chase at 2.20. The two top-rated horses, Sizing Europe and The Nightingale, have yet to win at this distance while Quito De La Roque and Bostons Angel look out and out stayers - judging fitness for this first run won't be easy. Midnight Chase could surprise a few - he ran an excellent fifth in the Gold Cup last March - but he wouldn't want too much rain. Connections decided to bypass last week's Charlie Hall to come here (although I'm not totally convinced this is an easier option.) Midnight Chase is 6/1 with William Hill this evening - I'll take an interest provided the rain stays away.
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Weekend snippets
Jumps racing is a tough old game and I'm guessing the hope of discovering that one special horse is what keeps trainers such as Robin Dickin getting up every morning. I expect there are a few false dawns along the way but when the real deal turns up, you'll be able to spot it quickly enough. Robin Dickin's emotional interview after Restless Harry had beaten Fair Along 20 lengths in Wetherby's John Smith's Hurdle yesterday told us his search is over. Of prime importance now is to do right by the horse; I'm sure Mr Dickin will not be found wanting in that sphere. A novice chase campaign looks on the cards but you can't help wondering whether connections might be tempted by a stab at the World Hurdle next March; this evening Ladbrokes quote Harry 33/1 for the RSA Chase, bet365 the same price for the World Hurdle.
In the past the aptly-named Restless Harry hasn't travelled long distances very well but he was as good as gold on Saturday; connections took a Shetland pony along to accompany the stable star and that appears to have done the trick...
It was good to see Time For Rupert back on form in the Charlie Hall. Although Paul Webber's charge was beaten three and a half lengths by Weird Al, connections were delighted with the performance and have indicated they will consider Haydock's Betfair Chase as his next target.
On the other hand connections of Charlie Hall winner Weird Al are reluctant to commit to the Hennessy. Weird Al has had his problems, a comment that also applies to Diamond Harry who was market leader for the race on Saturday morning before being withdrawn after he was found lame.
Ordinarily you might struggle to find common ground between the British Horseracing Authority and the Church of England but in recent weeks both organisations have managed to preside over something of a public relations disaster - the whip debate and the anti-capitalist demonstration outside St Paul's Cathedral.
On Saturday's Morning Line conditional jockey Stephen Clements (attached to Colin Tizzard's stable) named a couple to look out for - thing was he spoke so quickly, I had trouble understanding what he said! Oiseau De Nuit and Drybrook Bedouin were mentioned but Nick Luck appeared to indicate the latter had been reluctant to go to post in the past.
Finally, a result noted in the mares' maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter on Friday. 66/1 chance Justazippy beat 66/1 chance Prickles a head, 14 ran. The Straight Forecast paid 2068.29 while the Exacta paid 2413.50.
If only...
In the past the aptly-named Restless Harry hasn't travelled long distances very well but he was as good as gold on Saturday; connections took a Shetland pony along to accompany the stable star and that appears to have done the trick...
It was good to see Time For Rupert back on form in the Charlie Hall. Although Paul Webber's charge was beaten three and a half lengths by Weird Al, connections were delighted with the performance and have indicated they will consider Haydock's Betfair Chase as his next target.
On the other hand connections of Charlie Hall winner Weird Al are reluctant to commit to the Hennessy. Weird Al has had his problems, a comment that also applies to Diamond Harry who was market leader for the race on Saturday morning before being withdrawn after he was found lame.
Ordinarily you might struggle to find common ground between the British Horseracing Authority and the Church of England but in recent weeks both organisations have managed to preside over something of a public relations disaster - the whip debate and the anti-capitalist demonstration outside St Paul's Cathedral.
On Saturday's Morning Line conditional jockey Stephen Clements (attached to Colin Tizzard's stable) named a couple to look out for - thing was he spoke so quickly, I had trouble understanding what he said! Oiseau De Nuit and Drybrook Bedouin were mentioned but Nick Luck appeared to indicate the latter had been reluctant to go to post in the past.
Finally, a result noted in the mares' maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter on Friday. 66/1 chance Justazippy beat 66/1 chance Prickles a head, 14 ran. The Straight Forecast paid 2068.29 while the Exacta paid 2413.50.
If only...
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