Trick or treat?

Two jumps cards tomorrow with the feature race of the day, the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby, attracting just five runners. I'm assuming heavy rain does not fall before they go to post. On official ratings Tamarinbleu, trained by David Pipe, is the one to beat and is generally available at 9/4. He tends to run well fresh and was unfortunate to be pipped by Snoopy Loopy at Haydock on his debut run last season, with Kauto Star memorably unshipping Sam Thomas at the last. Tamarinbleu's form tailed off after that; on balance, for me, he's a difficult horse to catch right, so I'm going to look elsewhere. Snoopy Loopy has to give weight to the others but Ollie Magern and Deep Purple are of interest. Ollie Magern loves it round here, has won this before and went down fighting last year to Evan Williams' State Of Play, giving that winner ten pounds. Evan Williams saddles Deep Purple this time but this is the horse's first attempt over the three mile one furlong trip; the yard intend to use this race as a pointer for future plans. A couple of layers go 3/1 the eleven year old Ollie Magern which is jolly tempting for me - he's the selection; if you think Deep Purple will stay, at the age of eight he's the one with potential.

In the 3.25 Philip Hobbs' Fair Along is suited by race conditions but was nowhere to be seen in the Cesarewitch a fortnight ago. That run may give him a fitness edge over market rival Pettifour who won this last year but didn't quite go on from that. Lough Derg is as tough as old boots but, according to his trainer, usually needs a couple of runs to reach his peak, while No Refuge is a horse I like, although he doesn't always look the quickest or the best over the hurdles. I've had burnt fingers with Fair Along before but on the back of a positive note from his trainer in a recent RP Stable Tour article, I give Fair Along the vote.

Over the past four years Nicky Henderson has a 31% strike rate at Ascot yet jockey Barry Geraghty has chosen to go to Wetherby instead for just one ride for the yard - My Petra in the 2.20. The layers make the mare a 7/2 chance this evening but she has it to do in my book giving four pounds and upwards to all her rivals. In this very competitive listed event, I'll consider an each-way wager on Alan King's Santia - a recent note described her as a 'very useful mare and a quality individual', hinting the plan was to come here to try and get some black type before sending her to the paddocks.

Before we go any further a word of thanks is due to Betfinder for bringing to our attention the free Betfair / Timeform racecard which covers all tomorrow's terrestrial TV races; if you're thinking of having a wager on any of the Scoop 6 races, the card is certainly worth a look.

At Ascot the feature is the United House Gold Cup run over three miles in which seventeen are set to face the starter. Here are selective comments on selected runners but if you fancy a wager in this, you'd be well advised to consult the aforementioned Timeform card. Teletext reports today that Jeremy Scott has top weight Gone For Lunch 'straighter than this time last year' and 'his work is certainly very good at the moment' - his performance in this will determine whether connections target the Hennessy at Newbury in a month's time; to me Just Amazing looks somewhat exposed here against some battle-hardened handicappers; Seven Is My Number tries the trip for the first time, having won three chases on the bounce but he did everything in his power at Bangor the last time to throw his chance away - he's not an easy ride; Always Waining isn't one to trust implicitly - I've decided to leave well alone - but he has looked well-handicapped for some time and seemed set to win at Cheltenham two weeks ago but, two lengths up, he slithered on landing at the second last, leaving Nelson's Spice to collect; Boychuk, who finished third in that race, is described as 'inconsistent' by his handler; Hold Em isn't the biggest but is as tough as they come and would represent a reasonable each-way chance if handling the stiff fences while Evan Williams said recently they were going to target long distance novice hurdles with Mr Robert! You pay your money and you take your choice.

Others of potential interest include Hibiki in the 3.00 with Giles Hawkins claiming the ten pounds; Cockney Trucker in the 1.20 - looks 'made for fences' says Philip Hobbs, and Pterodactyl (2.25) who should strip fitter following his return in the Persian War Novices' Hurdle at Chepstow last Saturday.

Noted this weekend

The two star performances over the weekend were St Nicholas Abbey winning the Racing Post Trophy and over in Ireland Dunguib taking the maiden hurdle at Galway. This evening St Nicholas Abbey is generally 3/1 and 7/2 for next year's 2000 Guineas and 3/1 for the Derby, but Stan James go as short as 2/1. Dunguib is generally a 5/2 shot for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham next March.

Paul Nicholls may have come away from Chepstow without a winner yesterday but it was no surprise to see his Pepe Simo (5/2) take the Paul Nicholls Racing 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle at Wincanton today, beating the 13/8 favourite Henry King a length and a quarter.

During the BBC's coverage from Aintree on Saturday Clare Balding mentioned the John Smith's marketing campaign which is set to offer drinkers a share in the people's racehorse, a three-year-old called Smithy. Viewers were encouraged to check the John Smith's website for details. I've just had a quick peek - there are 'bogof' offers to several interesting meets but finding details of Smithy wasn't easy. An article from Marketing informed us we can register our interest from January 2010, and it was that article that pointed me in the direction of the link to Smithy's Yard, Home of the People's Racehorse.

With Christmas creeping ever closer, two more books of interest - Marcus Armytage offers some frivolous racing tales in 'Turn Me On Guv: 'Tails' from the Racecourse', while those looking for something a little more serious may want to consider fellow blogger Ben Aitken's 'Narrowing The Field - Using the Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing', available from the High Stakes bookshop.

Several acquaintances have been quick to tell me about Wrexham's indifferent start in the Blue Square Premiership this season. Mrs Tips, ever the helpful one, suggested the club sent a scout to run his eye over some dolphins who were filmed off the north Wales coast, playing football with jellyfish... Staying with the football theme, I had to smile at the commentator's introduction to the Chelsea versus Blackburn Rovers match on Match Of The Day last night. "If football was played on paper," he boomed, "we would win the pools every week!" Doesn't sound a bad idea to me.

Finally, spare a thought for amateur rider Victoria Cartmel who made history yesterday by becoming the first jockey to be banned for misuse of the whip and dropping her hands in the same race, the finale at Newbury yesterday. Sometimes, you just can't do right for doing wrong...

Aintree and Chepstow

Only eight are set to go to post for tomorrow's Aintree feature, the Old Roan Chase, which is run over two and a half miles. Howard Johnson's Tidal Bay proved somewhat disappointing last term - it was no disgrace to be beaten by Master Minded in the Tingle Creek, but when tried over two and a half and three miles his jumping never really convinced. Earlier in the week stable jockey Denis O'Regan said he was 'wary' about this race and that the horse was only 'OK' after sitting on him. On balance, I'm happy to look elsewhere. At eleven years of age, Monet's Garden and Knowhere are probably past their prime. For a nine-year-old Don't Push It has plenty of hurdle experience while both Kicks For Free and Tartak come to this after contesting novice chases last year. Having won four of his eight races, one over course and distance, and with the stable in decent form, Tartak gets the vote - he won't be inconvenienced should the predicted rain arrive.

The Veterans' Chase at 1.40 looks trappy while Noble Alan is expected to take the 3.25 although his price is likely to be short.

At Chepstow the going is good to soft with further wind and rain predicted. Six face the starter for the Persian War Novices' Hurdle at 1.20 - a fascinating contest over two miles four furlongs. Reve De Sivola, sixth in last year's Triumph, sets the standard here with an official rating of 143; the yard is in good form at present. Paul Nicholls' entry Aiteen Thirtythree catches the eye, being owned by Mr Paul Barber and Mrs M. Findlay, mother of one Harry Findlay. Speaking of his charge in The Times recently the handler said "If ever there was another Denman, this is it." Pterodactyl is no mug but has to give weight to the field and Frascati Park is interesting on his hurdles debut. This evening's tissue has Reve De Sivola 10/11 and Aiteen Thirtythree 4/1; at those prices I will go for value and take a chance with Aiteen Thirtythree.

The Silver Trophy at 1.55 looks something of a puzzle with seventeen declared. Top weight Elusive Dream is set to carry eleven stones twelve pounds (minus claimer Harry Skleton's three pounds allowance). The next horse in the handicap, El Dancer, carries just ten thirteen, while the bottom seven are all set to carry more than their long handicap weight. Many will suspect the top weight has been left in to benefit the other Nicholls runner and likely favourite Alfie Sherrin who is, nonetheless, two pounds out of the handicap. If you're brave enough to have a bet in this, here are recent notes from the Racing Post on some runners which may be of interest: Philip Hobbs on Prince Taime - '...race should tell us where we go with him this season: if he wins or runs well off his mark of 145 we can start thinking about conditions races; failing that we can switch to fences.'; Philip Hobbs on Ring The Boss - 'So disappointing last season.'; Alan King on Bakbenscher - 'I might still give him one run over hurdles just to take the freshness out of him, then we'll go chasing...'; and Evan Williams on Dantari - '...could be a decent horse in the spring in a big handicap off a light weight.' I shall watch from the sidelines.

The 2.25 Beginners' Chase is intriguing with Meanus Dandy, another owned by Mrs M. Findlay and Mr P. K. Barber, likely to be sent off a short-priced favourite. Course and distance winner Brenin Cwmtudu likes Chepstow and will get the cut in the ground he requires. His handler told the Weekender recently 'I feel he could make significant progress this season' and he would be disappointed if he wasn't better over fences than his current hurdles rating (117). If the eight go to post I'll check out the each-way betting opportunties.

The finale is a three mile maiden hurdle, although three of the field are recorded as having won over the distance. Paul Nicholls ex-French grey Royal Collonges will feature near the head of the market as will the Sir Robert Ogden owned Chamirey. This one is rated 130 but has been off the track for 552 days; trainer Alan King comments - "If he recaptures his French form, he could be interesting." I'll check prices beforehand but am tempted to take a chance with Chamirey.

Taking stock

The jumps season starts to take centre stage in the next couple of weeks but a couple of events this week haven't necessarily shown the game in the best light. There were four fatalities at Wetherby on Wednesday; the course will have to pass an inspection before the meeting scheduled for Friday and Saturday October 30th / 31st will be allowed to go ahead - the Charlie Hall Chase is the feature of the Saturday. Meanwhile, yesterday at Cheltenham of all places, the four runners in the five o'clock race were forced to take the wrong course after staff failed to remove a temporary running rail. A stewards' inquiry ensued and all jockeys were exonerated - how often do we see that happen? The incident has been referred to the BHA - rumours that the groundstaff concerned have been served with a one-day ban for misuse of the rails are wide of the mark.

Two impressive winners this weekend... The proverbial handicap snip Darley Sun ran out an easy winner of the Cesarewitch and the Kempton Christmas Hurdle is now on the agenda for Starluck after the gelding won on his seasonal debut whilst remaining in second gear.

Earlier this week in The Times Paul Nicholls put up three dark horses from the yard to watch out for - Aiteen Thirtythree, Royal Charm and Valentine Vic. Don't say I didn't tell you.

Finally, as Sea The Stars prepares to take up a new career at stud, Julian Muscat composed a fascinating double-page spread for Thursday's The Times that gave a glimpse into the esoteric world of the horse breeder. Hills offer 12/1 that any of Sea The Stars' first crop of three-year-olds will win a classic.

Kempton chit-chat

Sunday's listed novices' hurdle at Kempton (3.25) should prove useful for future reference. In this evening's tissue Press The Button is marked up favourite but on official ratings he has enough to find with both the top-rated Australia Day and Twiston-Davies' Cootehill; interest in the latter is tempered by the fact that he gives weight all round here and has a disappointing run at Market Rasen the last time to put behind him. Both Press The Button and Australia Day have had recent outings on the Flat. Kempton is a sharp track where the emphasis is on speed; I envisage both Aather and Australia Day trying to lead from the start. Australia Day has the top speed rating and would make some appeal as betting material if priced around the 3/1 mark.

In the 4.35 Philip Hobbs' Noble Request returns, having been off course for the best part of three years, while those looking for something to oppose odds-on shot Balthazar King with in the 5.10 may be interested in the fact that last time out The Big Orse finished fourth behind Kangaroo Court - that one obliged earlier today at Cheltenham.

Cheltenham on Saturday

Zeturf sponsor the feature handicap chase at Cheltenham tomorrow run over two and a half miles with another hundred yards thrown in at the end just for good measure. War Of The World, formerly with Mouse Morris over in Ireland, has been in good form over the summer and is bound to be popular, as is Poquelin, although the furthest this one has tried to date is two miles one furlong - I wouldn't take it for granted he'll stay. This looks trappy - if I get involved I'll have a small each-way interest in David Pipe's Star Of Germany who will appreciate the going and won the listed Lord Mildmay Memorial at Newton Abbot in August. I'm ignoring his latest effort in the Kerry National where the three mile trip and yielding ground probably didn't play to his strengths; he has his share of weight here.

According to the market, the novice chase at 3.50 is between the Alan King trained King Troy and Paul Nicholls' Just Amazing. The former has already beaten the latter at levels but only by a neck, while the official handicapper rates King Troy just two pounds higher than his rival. It looks close on paper. King Troy didn't jump well at Market Rasen the last time but in a recent RP stable tour the handler implied that his charge had got to the front too soon. He's trying three miles here for the first time - the trainer thinks he'll get the trip. For the record Just Amazing has won over two miles seven furlongs at Stratford. In my book King Troy's fourth in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen is the best form on offer and as his price is likely to be slightly bigger, I'll opt for King Troy - the winner has come from the front two in the market on eight occasions in the last ten years. Twiston-Davies' Diablo would have been of some interest for each-way betting purposes had eight runners faced the starter.

The opener looks interesting with the return of the Triumph Hurdle fourth Starluck. He was carrying my money that day last March and was travelling on the bit two from home but the infamous Cheltenham hill found him out. Bearing that in mind, I'm not in a rush to take short odds on his seasonal debut. Silk Hall starts here and then is likely to step up to two and a half miles while stablemate Saticon was something of an enigma last year. Classic Swain is the not most fluent of jumpers and was beaten four lengths by James De Vassy at Chepstow seven days ago while Evan Williams' Simarian faces a tough task giving these opponents eight pounds. Fascinating stuff - the King stable has won the last two renewals with Katchit and Squadron, so I'll chance Silk Hall this time.

Emma Lavelle's Kangaroo Court will be expected to take the 5 o'clock but he'll be no price while in the concluding bumper I'll watch Fiveways closely. From a yard that has been in excellent form during the summer months (over 26% winners so far this season), he did me a favour at Bangor last time. This looks much tougher though as, together with Start Me Up, he carries top weight; Mr J Tudor helps the cause by taking off five pounds. Of Miss Overdrive in this race Alan King says: 'Having clearly done very well over the summer, I have to say her work has improved quite dramatically.' Say no more.

The first Cheltenham meeting of the autumn

Following the summer recess, just a quick note as jump racing resumes at Prestbury Park tomorrow (Friday). Two interesting runners are Snap Tie in the 2.55 and Barizan in the juvenile hurdle at 4.40; both are likely to start odds-on and make little appeal as betting material. Philip Hobbs' smart hurdler Snap Tie isn't overly big but tries fences for the first time in the Wbx.com Novices' Chase - nonetheless he's still just a 20/1 shot with most layers for the Arkle next March. Should the fences get in his way, Pigeon Island and Rippling Ring are the most likely to benefit - to me, in his races, Rippling Ring hasn't looked the easiest of rides.

Barizan, rated 140 by the handicapper, has the form in the book in the 4.40. The last time at Market Rasen he ran away with his race, jumping fluently and beating Forty Thirty some fifteen lengths. On that occasion I thought his official rating may have flattered him somewhat but now he looks one to keep a very close eye on; his one defeat over hurdles came when he lost a shoe during the race.

Finally, at Ludlow this afternoon, The Package, with a second to New Little Bric in a Grade 3 handicap chase at Newbury to his name, was expected to take the Beginners' Chase at 4.50. The 4/7 favourite was beaten a neck, battled out of it by Matuhi (11/4). From the Racing Post's comments in running: '...still close up to the winner run-in, would not go on...'; he looks one to be wary of in the future.

Some weekend jumping notes

The Sporting Life reports plenty of drama at Ffos Las today - sadly 11/2 chance Manorson broke down after winning the Sir David Mansel Lewis Memorial Beginners' Chase.

David Pipe's charge Seven Is My Number, owned by David Johnson, took the opener at Bangor yesterday - the 9/2 chance beat Khachaturian (7/4) a short head in a relatively fast time. That's his third win on the bounce this autumn, although, according to the Racing Post's comments in running, the horse did everything he could to throw away the chance: '..ridden when wandered right and joined last, had plenty left but made it very hard for rider, cajoled home in front..." The rider who worked the oracle was Timmy Murphy. The horse looks far from straightforward but, despite those comments, clearly possesses ability as he was giving the runner-up ten pounds.

Evan Williams is in the spotlight in the Weekender's 'Straight from the Stable' feature this week and I was intrigued to see Silverburn is now an inmate of the yard. Although this horse, formerly with Paul Nicholls, has a Tolworth Hurdle to his name, I always felt he never quite lived up to expectations, even though Nicholls was quick to talk up his charge's chance when any opportunity arose. After finishing fourth in the Ballymore at the 2007 Cheltenham Festival, Silverburn was, for me, one to take on - his third in the 2007 Feltham behind Joe Lively was a typically frustrating effort. Mr Williams has a reputation for working wonders with animals that have maybe fallen out of love with the game - it will be interesting to see how Silverburn progresses.

Noted from that same Weekender article - State Of Play won't be ready for the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and is being aimed at the Grand National; Brenin Cwmtudu has schooled well over fences and 'could make signifcant progress this season' (has five-day entries in two chases at Ludlow on Thursday); Foxhunter winner Cappa Bleu is waiting for the rain to arrive and Fight Club is one to look out for when starting his novice hurdle campaign.

Howard Johnson caught the eye with three winners from just four runners at Carlisle on Friday but the form didn't carry over to Hexham the next day where both Wave Power (evens) and Montoya's Son (6/4) both disappointed. It's early days yet...

A couple of weeks ago Tom Segal, writing in the Weekender, indicated he preferred Flat racing to Jumps as a betting medium. Amongst the reasons he advanced - in chases in particular it was critical for a horse to get into a jumping rhythm and you could never tell beforehand if that was going to happen. I just couldn't resist putting forward a couple of counterpoints, reasons why I'm not so keen on the Flat game as a bettng medium - effect of the draw, traffic problems, less form to go on... ;)

Finally, for those who like their information straight from the horse's mouth, NH trainer Chris Bealby has an interesting blog at chrisbealby.wordpress.com

The proper start to the jumps season

Many consider tomorrow's meeting at Chepstow the real start to the jumps season; in days gone by the feature race was the Mercedes Benz Chase, with the BBC televising at least three races from the card. How times have changed! The Paul Nicholls stable moves into gear now, and Ruby Walsh will start his regular winter flights across the Irish Sea. In the past, searching for value, I've experimented with an approach of opposing Nicholls' runners at this meeting, the theory being that after their summer break the horses may not be as far forward as many will assume. The results have been decidedly mixed - last year was best forgotten with Nicholls-trained beasts winning four (Tchico Polos 5/2, Herecomesthetruth 10/11f, R De Rien Sivola 8/1 and Taniano even money favourite). As today's Daily Telegraph reports Nicholls feels his charges are as far forward as they were this time last year, I'd advise caution in following the strategy this year.

One I would be prepared to take on is Classic Swain in the four-year-old hurdle at 4.10. Classic Swain has never struck me as straightforward and in the past has shown signs of temperament together with a tendency to miss the odd hurdle out here and there. Any Given Day is a horse I like while Trenchant, with Choc Thornton up, looks the pick of the Alan King runners. Josh Gifford's Helium, a staying-on eighth in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, is held in high regard but, as with many on their first run of the season, fitness has to be taken on trust; having said that, the tissue prices the horse at 20/1 which looks big. In an open event, Any Given Day is put forward as the tentative selection - his run at Market Rasen in mid-August may give him an edge over some of his rivals here.

Tot Of The Knar has had her fair share of trainers and moved to the Nicholls yard in August. A game mare on her day, she gets into the 3.35 with a light weight but she has been novice chasing in smallish fields - taking on seasoned handicappers here she makes little appeal at cramped odds.

The favourite has won eight of the last ten runnings of the juvenile hurdle which is due off at 4.45. At the time of writing Fongoli is the most experienced animal and the market leader. The King stable won this in 2006 with Katchit and then finished second twice in succession with Pouvoir (2007) and Tuanku (2008). Tombov needs to improve on what we've seen so far to get competitive but the yard wouldn't enter him here on a mere whim. Fongoli is the selection.

Only six go to post for the novice chase at 3.00 which tends to act as a stepping stone for a young chaser destined for better things. As two thirds of the field are seven years old and more, I have concentrated on Nicholls' Gullible Gordon and Jonjo O'Neill's Theatrical Moment - Gullible Gordon gets the vote.

Noted - McCoy chooses to ride at Bangor. Khachaturian is of interest in the opener after his recent second to King Troy over a trip perhaps a little beyond his best. The drop back here should suit, although King Troy, previously fourth in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen, didn't jump well that day. King's Forest is respected. The McManus horses City Theatre and Shadow Dancer will be short odds to take the two novice hurdle events but I'll be tempted to have an each-way dabble on Norma Hill if she's priced around the 12/1 mark in the 3.30. This course and distance winning mare returned to action after a two year layoff with a reasonable effort in August. I've won money on her before - on her day she was a very speedy individual; if she retains her ability, she can be competitive here.

A day at Ascot races

The most common complaint I receive about this blog is that the tips are useless. The second most common complaint I receive is that the blog contains far too much drivel and not enough photographs. I don't really think I'll ever be able to address the first problem; instead I decided to try and do something about the second.

Recently a colleague and his wife went to Ascot's QEII meeting; in return for my marking their card, they agreed to take a few pictures. Out came the best clothes and off to Ascot they went! Obtaining half price tickets through CAMRA (The Campaign For Real Ale), they'd bagged themselves a real bargain before they had even set foot on the the course - £15 for a Grandstand ticket. At the accompanying beer festival on the day, a pint of real ale from the wide selection available cost £2.50, which also struck me as jolly reasonable.

My colleague summed up the day as similar to attending a giant wedding reception but without having to go through the inconvenience of attending the ceremony. Put like that, it certainly made plenty of appeal to me.

The new grandstand was described as 'seriously impressive' (although it looks as though it will be a while before building costs are recouped - the course made a pre-tax loss of just under £11 million last year).

Needles to say, the tips provided by my good self failed abysmally. My colleague's wife however, having attended no more than a handful of meetings, placed £3 of her own money on Joshua Tree 'because I'm a U2 fan'. Not only that, she had the foresight to strike the bet with a bookmaker offering odds of 16/1. Joshua Tree won, SP 12/1.

All in all, a most enjoyable day out at the Ascot races...

On reflection

Earlier this afternoon Sea The Stars won the Qatar Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe in breathtaking fashion. At the home turn the horse looked boxed in near the tail of the field; when the gaps appeared, the horse took them, ably assisted by Mick Kinane in the plate, to beat Youmzain and Cavalryman two lengths and a head, thereby securing 'equine immortality' in the process.

In his post race interview, Mick Kinane, 50, described the horse as 'phenomenal'. The jockey's entry in Sean Magee's compilation The Race Of My Life (1996), is Belmez's neck victory over Old Vic in the 1990 King George at Ascot; I suspect if he were asked the question today, the victory of Sea The Stars in the 2009 Arc would be his selection.

In the immediate aftermath of the race, trainer John Oxx refused to confirm the horse would be aimed at the Breeders' Cup next month. This evening Coral offer the best price about the horse for the Classic - 4/5.

Roughly an hour and a half after the showpiece, Yeats finished third on his final run in the Qatar Prix du Cadran and was given a standing ovation by racegoers. May he enjoy a long, happy retirement!

And, just in case you were wondering, The Stag, from Huntingdon Rugby Club, won the 2009 Mascot Grand National...

Something for the weekend...

At Newmarket tomorrow thirty four go to post for the Cambridgeshire; bookmakers bet 10/1 the field with Skybet paying each way six places. Picking the winner is well beyond my limited capabilties. In the last decade two favourites have obliged (Pipedreamer in 2007 and Blue Monday in 2005) but in 2004 Spanish Don was returned at 100/1. I won't have a bet but, if a gun were held to my head, I'd start by looking at horses carrying less than nine stones.

Course and distance winner Ghanaati returns to racing against her own sex in the Sun Chariot Stakes at three o'clock, having finished a well-beaten third behind Rip Van Winkle in the Sussex at Goodwood. She's been given time to get over that effort, has a favourite's chance and is the selection.

All eyes will be on Longchamp on Sunday when Sea The Stars attempts to win the Qatar Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe at 3.15 BST. Last year Rishi Persad told BBC viewers he would walk home if Zarkava won the race - Zarkava won but Rishi never kept his promise; I wonder if he'll be similarly rash this year. Eighteen go to post; at the time of writing Sea The Stars is 8/11 in places but generally a 4/6 shot. The Arc is often a rough race and the draw can be crucial - the favourite has been given stall six which I would imagine will please John Oxx. The handler went on record a couple of days ago saying he didn't want a low draw (Zarkava won from stall one last year, the first horse to do so since 1964). Similarly you don't want a really wide draw - Andre Fabre said previously he was running for second place with Cavalryman but the horse has been done no favours whatsoever with berth 19. Before the draw, Cavalryman, with Dettori riding, was decent enough value at 10/1 - he's now generally a 12/1 shot. Vision D'Etat is worth a second look and probably overpriced at 14/1 with Coral but as a four-year-old he's set to carry nine stone five; three-year-olds have won 12 of the last 15 runnings. Stacelita remains unbeaten even though she was beaten fair and square by Dar Re Mi the last time, being awarded the Prix Vermeille in the stewards' room on a technicality, much to the disgust of Dar Re Mi's owner Lord Lloyd Webber and his wife who was most indignant in the aftermath. I'm going to stick with an each-way interest in Cavalryman - the poor draw is a major concern - but, along with many I suspect, I hope to see Sea The Stars win the day.

For those who prefer a bit of fun on a Sunday, the tenth running of the annual Mascot Grand National takes place at Huntingdon racecourse over a distance of one furlong two hundred and twenty yards. Mascots caught wearing spikes are likely to be disqualified...

Matters arising...

A couple of performances impressed over the weekend - Rip Van Winkle's determination when challenged by Zacinto in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and Barizan's victory in the juvenile novice hurdle at Market Rasen. Barizan raced off a mark of 140 which some (myself included) thought may have flattered a little but he hurdled fluently and won as he liked. I'd heard a quiet whisper for the second, Classic Contours, who finished a respectable thirteen lengths second - that was a decent enough effort on his first try over hurdles and he looks one to keep in mind for the future in this sphere.

I have a confession to make - after watching Richard Dunwoody dance the 'Cha Cha Cha' in Saturday night's Strictly Come Dancing, I picked up the phone, tears still rolling down my cheeks, and voted for the man. What a star! Unfortunately, it was all to no avail and 'Richard Dun-goody' was promptly dumped out of the competition in no uncertain terms, like a novice chaser falling at the second. Of course, the BBC has missed yet another opportunity to increase its diminished racing coverage.

Around this time of year books start to appear on the shelves of shops, just in time for Christmas. In Waterstone's (Coventry) the other day I came across a copy of Fallon: The Biography by Andrew Longmore and Paul Nicholls' autobiography Lucky Break while Saturday's Times printed extracts from Michael Henderson's 50 People Who Fouled Up Football. I quote the author: 'There is no joy in English football today, and little dignity. The game is richer to the tune of many billions, yet it is poorer in spirit... Football has been shamed by people who do not hold its best interests at heart.' Amongst the fifty named and shamed are Piers Morgan, Alan Hansen, Nigel Kennedy, Victoria Beckham, Alan Green ('a man who speaks almost exclusively in capital letters'), Don Revie, Billy Bragg and even the fans themselves. I think I'm going to have to order a copy...

Football may have its billions but during the BBC's coverage of the European Eventing Championships this afternoon I watched Clare Balding interview one Piggy French who had just won herself a silver medal. 'Piggy French? Do people like that still exist?' I hear you cry; well, quite clearly, they do. You'll be pleased to learn that Piggy isn't her real name - Simon Barnes informs us her name is Georgina - the family nickname came about as her older sister thought she looked like Piglet from Winnie The Pooh. Different world altogether, isn't it?

Finally, I bring to your attention something I've spent a long time waiting for - left-handed underpants. According to aptly-named underwear seller Horn, 'They'll save left-handed men vital seconds.' It's all just pants really.

Market Rasen ruminations

Only five declared for the big race at Ascot tomorrow, the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, and Mastercraftsman is likely to be withdrawn if Rip Van Winkle makes it to the start. Rip, the clear form choice, is my idea of the winner but he'll be no price so I've decided to look at Market Rasen's National Hunt card instead.

In the opener I'm considering Philip Hobbs' Bruslini but he's been off the track a while, may be a little ring-rusty and fitness has to be taken on trust.

The 2.05 handicap hurdle looks very competitive. Likely favourite Cootehill from the Twiston-Davies yard is a favourite of mine and did this blog a favour when taking the Summer Hurdle in July at 13/2. A few in that race reoppose here including the two that dead-heated for second, Danehill Willy and Ameeq, together with Ellerslie Tom and Katies Tuitor. I have to express some reservations about Twiston-Davies' stable form. Normally at this time of year the yard hits the ground running, having had the two day Perth meeting earlier in the week as an early target. This year things don't appear to have gone entirely to plan; just one winner (Billie Magern) from thirteen entries at Perth doesn't read well - seven of those runners were sent off favourite. The yard's three runners at Worcester today have all finished unplaced. At the weights Danehill Willy should finish in front of Ameeq, the latter being kept busy on the Flat over the summer. I note that McCoy has ridden Danehill Willy in his last three runs but here he's jumped ship and is booked to ride Alison Thorpe's consistent gelding Nortonthorpe Lad. McCoy gave up his rides after the first at Worcester today, having taken a heavy fall at Fontwell on Thursday. If the champ is back riding tomorrow, I'll have an each-way wager on Nortonthorpe Lad who is priced up at 12/1 in this evening's tissue.

Barizan brings the best form into the juvenile novices' hurdle at 2.40 but I expect Forty Thirty to run a big race. In the recent past Alan King has used this race to introduce both Katchit and Franchoek; the stable's entry last year however - Black Jacari - proved a disappointment, winning just one Class 4 hurdle in his subsequent ten starts. Tombov is one to keep an eye out for in the market but I'm going to stick by Forty Thirty who won for this blog last time out. It's worth noting the favourite has failed to win the last five renewals.

I'll maintain a watching brief in the listed handicap chase at 3.15. Always Waining would make plenty of appeal if he was certain to carry his effort through but I've had burnt fingers with this one many times before. Two I'll keep a close eye on for future reference - Paul Webber's De Soto and Oumeyade having his first run for Donald McCain.

By declaring King Troy for the novice rather than the handicap chase, Alan King has taken the easier option with the seven-year-old gelding; King Troy is the selection in the 3.55.

The finale is trappy - I won't have a bet. Brendan Duke's Mister Benedictine is a horse I like and he'll like the ground but he hasn't won over this trip and I can see a couple further down the handicap going past McCoy's mount in the closing stages.

Looking ahead

This is my favourite time of year - the leaves on the trees are changing colour, there's a nip in the early morning air and ever so slowly the National Hunt season is beginning to take shape. If anticipation is (more than) half the excitement of racing, then this is a time of excitement and anticipation. There was no jump racing last week but Perth holds its two-day meeting on Wedensday and Thursday (a meeting the Twiston-Davies stable regularly targets), Worcester race on Friday and then Market Rasen holds its two-day meeting over the forthcoming weekend. Of course, the big meeting on Saturday takes place at Ascot where the feature race will be the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes; a work colleague is going and has asked me for a few pointers - he really should know better. Last year I did promise myself I'd get to Ludlow's first jumps meeting (Thursday October 15th) but events have overtaken me and I don't think it's going to happen. As they say - the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Overheard comment from Mrs Tips while watching Joe Calzaghe and Kristina Rihanoff during last night's Strictly Come Dancing: 'It looks as though she is trying to dance with a wardrobe.' In my time I've turned a few heads on the disco dancefloors of the country for the completely wrong reasons, but even I could see what Mrs T. meant. Before Joe had set foot on the dancefloor, he was the bookmakers favourite for this year's title; Betfred are currently offering 33/1.

Finally Guinness celebrates its 250th birthday on Thursday 24th September; I shall partake of the odd pint (or two) - it would be downright rude not to!

Ayr Gold Cup, Newbury and Newmarket

When the draw was made for the Ayr Gold Cup earlier in the week, those first out of the hat went for the high stall numbers in the belief that was where the advantage lay; the first seven home in today's Bronze Cup all came from single figure berths. Twenty seven are set to go to post for tomorrow's renewal of the Gold Cup over a trip of six furlongs. The race, as always, is ultra-competitive and has something of the look of a bookmakers' benefit about it. Those who can wait will have a further clue to any draw advantage as the Silver Cup is due off at 2.05. Given the result of today's Bronze Cup I've decided to opt for a low-drawn horse. Dandy Nicholls, who has won this race five times in the last nine years, saddles likely favourite Evens And Odds (drawn 3) - in a race of this nature his price is unlikely to offer much value. I'll have a small each-way investment on Jim Goldie's course and distance winner Hogmaneigh (drawn 2). There appears plenty of speed nearby, the horse should run his race with the stable in reasonable form (6 wins from 37 runs in the past fortnight) and Coral stand out this evening by offering 22/1 - most firms go 18s.

In the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury Radiohead is the one they all have to beat but the World Trophy at 3.25 looks far more difficult to solve. On official ratings J J The Jet Plane should win with something to spare but he disappointed somewhat in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot and has since moved to Richard Hannon's yard; I won't get involved.

For some unfathomable reason the two and a quarter mile Cesarewitch Trial (3.20 Newmarket) has caught my imagination. Several of these like to race from the front including Ragamuffin Man, Saga de Tercey and Aajel - if they take each other on early, the race could be set up for a hold-up horse. The first-named was beaten fair and square by the second-named last time out and should confirm the form. The Weekender quotes Saga de Tercey's trainer Alan Swinbank after that victory - "He runs like a good horse and could be our next really good one." He is likely to start favourite but I haven't totally ruled out the top-weighted grey Aajel who won a Class 3 at Yarmouth last time easily, his first run since September 2007. I'll chance Aajel as he's likely to offer better value and Marcus Tregonig's stable boasts an impressive 31% strike rate over the past fortnight (6 wins from 19 runs).

Finally, for those who like to keep a tab on these sort of things, Tom Dascombe sends out his first runner from his Michael Owen / Andrew Black backed stable; top weight Emerald Rock goes in the 9.20 at Wolverhampton.

Round-up

Channel 4's coverage of the St Leger at Doncaster highlighted the tradition where the town's first-born child on the day of the race is given life membership of the track when reaching the age of sixteen; this year's recipient was Thomas Peter Talbot who entered this world thirteen minutes after midnight on the day in question.

Now I admit I was dozing a little but I'm sure I heard Channel 4's Jim McGrath say something like this during commentary. 'It's a glorious day to be watching horses. Of the four-legged variety, several look [well with the sun on their backs]'. Now, was Jim McGrath trying to make a statement there about the existence of horses with more / less than four legs?

On an altogether more sombre note, following the recent tragic deaths of two apprentice jockeys, Jamie Kyne and Jan Wilson, Julian Muscat wrote an excellent piece in Tuesday's Times that highlighted the spartan existence of the racing apprentice.

If you're a jump jockey, the chances are you won't get a chance to ride in the Derby; that said, the next best thing has to be a ride in the Jump Jockeys' Derby Handicap. Sam Thomas won Thursday's renewal over Epsom's Derby course on the appropriately-named Epsom Salts, the horse carrying the burden of eleven stones and five pounds to victory!

Of some potential interest to some readers - former Southampton player Matt Le Tissier's admission in his recently published autobiography that he was part of a failed betting scam is likely to result in both the FA and the police asking further questions; in South Africa a pigeon has carried 4Gb of data to its destination faster than broadband; and if you want a big win at the races for a small stake, Kevin Knight's experience would suggest you're better off knowing nothing about racing whatsoever...

Finally my junk mail item of the week comes from Virgin Trains. I quote: 'Treat yourself like Royalty with First Class travel... Whether you are attending the unveiling of a stately home's new garden, your brother's birthday, or any other engagement, it's always nicer to have some special treatment on the way.' Attending the unveiling of a stately home's new garden? Where did that come from?

St Leger day in England and Ireland

Only eight go to post for the St Leger at Doncaster; on paper the race appears to be between the first four in the betting - Kite Wood, Changingoftheguard, Monitor Closely and Father Time. Of that quartet, Henry Cecil's Father Time looks to offer best value as the horse is bang there with a chance provided you forgive his last effort in the Great Voltigeur. Kite Wood has a favourite's chance but I'm slightly put off by the fact he would prefer more cut. Changingoftheguard will not be inconvenienced by fast ground but there are reservations about the ability of Monitor Closely to last home. The winner has come from the first three in the betting on nine occasions in the last ten years, with the favourite obliging six times. I'll take a chance with Changingoftheguard.

At the Curragh I can't oppose the legendary Yeats. Whatever happens, we have to bear in mind that, with the advancing years, this could be the last time we'll see him on a racecourse.

Others I'll take a closer look at before the off include Cat Junior in the DFS Park Stakes at Doncaster, Mac Love in a tight-looking Group 3 at Goodwood (2.40) and Cloudy Start in the 3.55 at Chester.

Some selections for Saturday

Noted amongst the also-rans in this week's epsiode of Dragons' Den, a cameo appearance from 'self-styled Lord Brett Little and trainer Edward Creighton'. The pair were asking the Dragons for an investment of £150,000 to put into their venture T.U.R.F (The Ultimate Racing Fraternity). Dragon Theo Paphitis' conclusion - 'I'd rather back a pantomime horse...' You're likely to feel much the same way about the suggestions made below.

The Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (3.50) has been billed as a clash between Sea The Stars and Fame And Glory. The participation of the former is dependant on the going, currently described as yielding to soft, soft in places; John Oxx is likely to wait until the last moment before making his decision. On official ratings Rainbow View is the one to beat in the 2.40; the filly hasn't managed to get her head in front this year but this represents a jolly good opportunity - the fitting of cheekpieces for the first time should help her concentration.

This side of the Irish Sea many will be of the opinion Kieren Fallon can land the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock, courtesy of High Standing. This looks trappy to me with Fleeting Spirit and Main Aim formidable opponents - I'm steering well clear.

At Stratford the opening juvenile hurdle looks quite interesting for the time of year. Forty Thirty won well last time at Bangor and is taken to continue his progress. One to watch out for in the market is Irish raider Choisir Breeze while Tom Dascombe's Lambourn Genie goes hurdling after disappointments on the Flat. In the 3.20 Mutual Friend tries two and a half miles for the first time; the Pipe team are in good form at present so Mutual Friend gets the vote over Truckers Delight. In the competitive-looking 3.50 I'll have a second look at Michael Hourigan's Some Craic - this one ran well over course and distance on his penultimate run. The Jigsaw Man is the one to beat in the finale, but he'll be priced accordingly.

Brief notes on Goodwood (and Cartmel)

The feature on Saturday's Goodwood card is the Group 2 Celebration Mile due off at 3.10. Only seven stand their ground, with layers going 14/1 the field bar the top two - Delegator and Zacinto. I would have been interested in Mac Love each-way if eight or more had gone to post. Currently Delegator is priced at evens and Zacinto 7/4; Delegator is the form pick, Zacinto the improver. At those prices I'll maintain a watching brief.

In the Prestige Stakes (3.45) Sent From Heaven's third behind Long Lashes in the Sweet Solera Stakes reads well enough - that day Barry Hills' charge was noted flashing her tail out the back; she finished beaten two and a half lengths. On official ratings Full Mandate is the one although this filly steps up from six furlongs. I'll chance Sent From Heaven, although I would have preferred a slightly higher draw.

The winner has come from the top three in the betting on eight of the last ten runnings of the Windflower March Stakes (2.35); favourites have obliged on four of those eight occasions. Godolphin's Urban Poet will be popular with the weight for age allowance against Mourilyan. While looking for an each-way shot in this, I noted that only two of the field have won previously over the trip - Andrew Balding's Victoria Montoya and John Dunlop's King of Wands. On official ratings, the Dunlop horse looks well in, so I'll take an each-way interest in King of Wands.

At Cartmel, I'll watch to see if Tom George allows Invisible Man to take his chance in the 2.40. I'm not keen on four-year-olds running against their elders in novice chases but this one put up a good show over a slightly shorter at Market Rasen last time out. On the same card former Alan King inmate Noticeable will be worth noting if taking his chance in the competitive-looking handicap hurdle at 4.25; running over the larger obstacles at Southwell a fortnight ago, this one looked a big threat when coming to grief two out.