Friday, September 18, 2009

Ayr Gold Cup, Newbury and Newmarket

When the draw was made for the Ayr Gold Cup earlier in the week, those first out of the hat went for the high stall numbers in the belief that was where the advantage lay; the first seven home in today's Bronze Cup all came from single figure berths. Twenty seven are set to go to post for tomorrow's renewal of the Gold Cup over a trip of six furlongs. The race, as always, is ultra-competitive and has something of the look of a bookmakers' benefit about it. Those who can wait will have a further clue to any draw advantage as the Silver Cup is due off at 2.05. Given the result of today's Bronze Cup I've decided to opt for a low-drawn horse. Dandy Nicholls, who has won this race five times in the last nine years, saddles likely favourite Evens And Odds (drawn 3) - in a race of this nature his price is unlikely to offer much value. I'll have a small each-way investment on Jim Goldie's course and distance winner Hogmaneigh (drawn 2). There appears plenty of speed nearby, the horse should run his race with the stable in reasonable form (6 wins from 37 runs in the past fortnight) and Coral stand out this evening by offering 22/1 - most firms go 18s.

In the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury Radiohead is the one they all have to beat but the World Trophy at 3.25 looks far more difficult to solve. On official ratings J J The Jet Plane should win with something to spare but he disappointed somewhat in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot and has since moved to Richard Hannon's yard; I won't get involved.

For some unfathomable reason the two and a quarter mile Cesarewitch Trial (3.20 Newmarket) has caught my imagination. Several of these like to race from the front including Ragamuffin Man, Saga de Tercey and Aajel - if they take each other on early, the race could be set up for a hold-up horse. The first-named was beaten fair and square by the second-named last time out and should confirm the form. The Weekender quotes Saga de Tercey's trainer Alan Swinbank after that victory - "He runs like a good horse and could be our next really good one." He is likely to start favourite but I haven't totally ruled out the top-weighted grey Aajel who won a Class 3 at Yarmouth last time easily, his first run since September 2007. I'll chance Aajel as he's likely to offer better value and Marcus Tregonig's stable boasts an impressive 31% strike rate over the past fortnight (6 wins from 19 runs).

Finally, for those who like to keep a tab on these sort of things, Tom Dascombe sends out his first runner from his Michael Owen / Andrew Black backed stable; top weight Emerald Rock goes in the 9.20 at Wolverhampton.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

A decent enough effort from Hogmaneigh who finished seventh of the twenty six runners behind 14/1 winner Jimmy Styles. Winning trainer Clive Cox had initially opted for stall 19 in the draw but a faulty phone line meant he had to be content with berth 15. In the event it made no difference to the horse who was given a great ride by Dettori to take it up inside the final furlong. Barney McGrew (drawn 6) was second, Knot In Wood (drawn 9) was third and Evens And Odds (drawn 3) was fourth. Of the first seven home in the Silver Cup, six came from single figure berths.
Radiohead (5/4f) may have been the one they all had to beat in the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury but three of the seven runners did exactly that, 11/4 shot Awzaan collecting the spoils. Radiohead led briefly two out but weakened inside the final furlong; he didn't appear to stay on this his first try over six.
Strike The Deal (9/2) took the World Trophy with 8/1 shot J J The Jet Plane finishing third.
Best result of the day - Aajel was a non-runner in the Cesarewitch Trial ;) This went to Andrew Balding's three year old Bernie The Bolt who won in some style from 5/2 favourite Alanbrooke.