Randomly noted...

Hot on the hooves of the Godolphin doping scandal, this week jockey Eddie Ahern received a 10 year ban for breaching three BHA rules, a ban he will contest with the support of the Professional Jockeys' Association.

In other news...

Dettori's return to the track following a six month ban has been delayed but he remains hopeful of riding in the Epsom Derby on June 1st.
 
In Wednesday's Racing Post Lee Mottershead reported that in the period from January 1st to April 27th 2013 viewing figures for Channel 4 Racing were down on 22 of the 25 broadcast days, while the audience for The Morning Line fell 277,000 during the Cheltenham Festival.

And Royal Ascot has appointed its first 'official partner' - Swiss watchmakers Longines. Chris Cook of The Guardian wonders, quite wryly, whether this partnership will lead to the publishing of acccurate sectional times at the track...

Enough.

Last weekend's post made mention of Oliver Sherwood's mare Luci Di Mezzanotte. She didn't run at Bangor but did turn up for a Wetherby Maiden Hurdle yesterday and obliged at odds of 4/1.

Tomorrow sees the traditional Bank Holiday card at Cartmel; these meets are something of an institution in their own right but I'm afraid the place has never been particularly kind to me.

Down the country a bit and across to the left, the 6.40 novice hurdle at Ffos Las has caught my eye. The David Pipe trained Third Of The Third, owned by course boss Dai Walters, is likely to be sent off favourite but both Groomed and top weight Lord Grantham are closely matched on ratings. RPR/ OR ratings show Third Of The Third 132 / 113, Groomed 131 / 112 and Lord Grantham 129 / 120.

Granted, Lord Grantham has to give weight to all his rivals but Jake Greenall's three pounds allowance offsets some of the burden and Henry Daly's charge looks likely to stay the trip better than Groomed; I'll consider opposing the favourite with Lord Grantham at around the 3/1 mark.

Finally it's interesting to see the well-named Mad Moose running in a listed event on the Flat (2.20 York). After refusing to race at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals this spring, Mad Moose appears to have taken a a bit of a liking to the Flat game and his recent second at Chester behind Mount Athos (probably bound for the Melbourne Cup in November) reads well enough, although that form should be treated with plenty of caution.

Trainer's son Sam Twiston-Davies rides 'The Moose' over the sticks; brother Willie takes over here. Songcraft is the class act and the percentage call in the race; it remains to be seen whether Mad Moose can confirm recent improvement.

A bumper weekend...

Looking at the five day declarations earlier in the week, I'd identified a couple running in bumpers that were of some interest while everyone else was concentrating on the Flat.

Oliver Sherwood has his team in good form at the moment and Luci Di Mezzanotte's head second to The Pirate Queen from the Alan King yard last time read well. King's inmate finished fifth in the Aintree listed mares' bumper on her previous run. Luci had an entry in the Bangor bumper at 4.50 on Saturday but it looks as though Fergal O'Brien's previous winner Down Ace has scared her off...

Peter Bowen's Rolling Maul held a couple of weekend options at Uttoxeter and Stratford on Sunday but the handler has decided to take up neither - instead Bowen sends The Road Ahead to the Warwickshire track where Prideofthecastle from David Pipe's stable is likely to provide a stern test.

It's also worth noting that Propsect Wells, well beaten behind Zarkander in the Aintree Hurdle last time, tries fences for the first time on Stratford's card.     

The 2012/13 jumps season - a personal view

Champion jockey: A P McCoy
Champion trainer: Nicky Henderson
Winning owner: J P McManus
Leading conditional rider: Lucy Alexander


2012 was the second wettest year on record and all that rain left an indelible mark on the season.

From late summer onwards, the layers had Nicky Henderson long odds-on to take the trainers' title from Paul Nicholls but the Ditcheat handler clocked some notable victories in the autumn including the Paddy Power Gold Cup with Al Ferof and the Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup with Unioniste.

Al Ferof gave Walkon 16 lbs and a three length beating and was 5/1 for the King George at Kempton before sustaining an injury that wrote his season off. The legendary Big Buck's suffered a similar fate after winning in a common canter on his seasonal debut at Newbury.

Unioniste's Cheltenham victory, beating the hapless Walkon 11 lengths, was all the more remarkable as the horse was just four years old; some may have thought his subsequent defeat in the RSA Chase at the Festival a disappointment but the gelding is likely to strengthen up over the coming summer.

The season's headline horse was Henderson's Sprinter Sacre, described by Simon Holt as 'a steeplecahser from the gods' and that's exactly what he is. He beat Sizing Europe 19 lengths in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, a trip of two miles, and is quoted as short as 6/4 by William Hill for the next running of the King George, run over a trip of three miles.

If Sprinter Sacre was Henderson's headline horse, stablemate Bobs Worth wasn't far behind. The gelding won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in December and then added the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the spring, making ground from an unpromising position four out to win going away and maintaining his unbeaten track record in the process.

Hurricane Fly reclaimed the Champion Hurdle and no doubt intends to return next year but two other Festival performances stick in the mind - Liam Treadwell's front-running ride on 50/1 winner Carrickboy in the Byrne Group Plate and Oscar Delta's unseating of amateur Jane Mangan with the CGA Foxhunter Chase apparently at his mercy.

The BBC boasts a long distinguished history in the coverage of televised horse racing; the Corporation was due to bring that coverage to a conclusion with Chepstow's Welsh National meeting but the wet weather put paid to those plans.

Ironically Channel Four's re-vamped racing offering, handled by production company IMG Sports Media, covered the re-arranged card nine days later but those expecting to see the much-advertised Clare Balding on their screens were to be disappointed; apparently Ms Balding's contract covers just 88 days of the racing year...

Two weeks later, in an article in the Racing Post, Carl Hicks, the man at the helm of Channel Four's coverage, gave himself a rather generous-looking seven out of ten to date despite some initial technical mishaps. The station's televising of the Grand National didn't do much to boost the mark in my humble opinion but that proved of little consequence as racing was busy breathing a huge sigh of relief as all participants, both equine and human, came home safe and sound.

Ryan Mania's victory in the Aintree showpiece on the unconsidered Auroras Encore, a 66/1 chance, was manna from heaven for the media. On the very next day on his very next ride Mania was unfortunate to suffer neck and back injuries when falling from Stagecoach Jasper at Hexham; he was flown by air ambulance to hospital in Newcastle and the modest jockey's fame increased a further tenfold.

This year blog horse of the year goes to Countrywide Flame who took Newcastle's Fighting Fifth in a common canter and ran exceptionally well at odds of 16/1 to finish third in the Champion Hurdle.

I made it to the track just once this season - Warwick's Classic Chase day in mid January. The thing I remember most about the meeting was John Craven appearing particularly animated after Ely Brown's victory at odds of 12/1 in the three mile handicap hurdle. The inference in that last comment is that my own selections ran particularly poorly...

Finally, to conclude the review, a word for Lucy Alexander. Alexander rode 38 winners and in doing so became the first woman as well as the first Scot to win the Conditional Jockeys' Championship. Aged just 22 she is already the most successful female NH jockey of all time - well done Lucy!

Bet365 Gold Cup 2013

This week in racing...

The Jockey Club launches a retail bond with an eye to raising £15 million for redevelopment at Cheltenham racecourse;

Mahmood Al Zarooni is banned for eight years in what has very quickly become the biggest doping scandal ever to hit the sport in this country.

Unfortunate timing some might say.

Tomorrow's mixed card at Sandown, where the bet365 Gold Cup is the highlight, brings the curtain down on one of the most persistently wet National Hunt seasons in recent memory.

In the past decade three trainers have won this feature twice (Paul Nicholls, Ferdy Murphy and Philip Hobbs) while just three horses have managed to carry 11 stones or more to victory - Puntal (11-4, 2004), Lacdoudal (11-5, 2006) and Tidal Bay (11-12, 2012); tomorrow just five of the twenty strong field carry less than the 11 stones. In the same timeframe none of the favourites has obliged.

This year's renewal can't really be considered vintage but it looks jolly competitive and by inference difficult to solve.

Doncaster's Grimthorpe Chase was run on ground good / good to firm in places. Quentin Collonges hasn't always been the most fluent of jumpers but that day he jumped for fun and ran his field ragged from the front; he has an additional four furlongs to complete here but found extra when challenged by Mr Moss who doesn't look the easiest ride and races right-handed for the first time.

On his penultimate run in the Kim Muir Becauseicouldntsee was beaten some 19 lengths by Same Difference while conceding ten pounds. Here the handicapper appears to have given the gelding a chance as he races in receipt of seven pounds from the Twiston-Davies inmate - at the time of writing Same Difference is near the head of the market yet Becauseicouldntsee is priced as big as 33/1 with William Hill.

At those odds Becauseicouldntsee is put up as a speculative each-way selection for this season's final showpiece.

Scottish Grand National 2013

At 3.50 tomorrow this year's shock Grand National winner Auroras Encore and jockey Ryan Mania bid to complete a double last achieved in 1974 by Red Rum and Brian Fletcher by winning the Scottish Grand National in the same season.

The handicapper has ensured the horse faces no simple task and has incurred the wrath of trainer's husband Harvey Smith in the process by raising the gelding a further 11 lbs following his exploits at Aintree.

In the past decade only two horses have carried more than 10-5 to victory in this race (Grey Abbey 11-12 in 2004 and Hello Bud 10-9 in 2009) so I've decided to sift through some of the lighter weights towards the bottom end of the handicap...

David Pipe's Big Occasion is appropriately named and has been well tipped-up following his victory in the Midlands National six weeks ago but, as a result, is priced short enough; at six years old he may just lack some vital experience.

Venetia Williams is having a good stab at the prize fund with three entries - Rigadin De Beauchene, Relax and Pentiffic.

The first-named didn't fire when jumping poorly at Sandown last time out but if that run is forgiven appears to offer some value at around the 20/1 mark. Stable jockey Aidan Coleman opts for Relax but I wouldn't totally discount Pentiffic (40/1) who failed to make the cut for the Aintree race and sports cheek pieces for the first time.

Lively Baron is an enigmatic character who could be competitive if in the mood but I'm going to chance Tom George's Monsieur Cadou each-way at around 14/1.

His victory in Haydock's Tim Molony Handicap Chase three weeks ago reads well and the manner in which he stayed on at the end that day suggests he should get this trip. The handicapper has raised the gelding 12 lbs for that effort but with just 10-4 to carry he looks worth an interest.

National coverage

It barely seems a week since I was writing a post with selections for the 2013 National...

Racing breathed a collective sigh of relief as the participants returned safe and sound; it didn't seem to matter that the winner was an unconsidered 66/1 longshot, Auroras Encore.

Perhaps I should qualify that statement - it mattered to the layers, as William Hill CEO Ralph Topping made clear in his post-race blog: 'But I'm a bookmaker first and foremost and it's our William Hill shareholders who top the podium today.'

Ouch.

Generally Channel 4 appeared well satisfied with viewing figures which peaked at 8.9 million but certain aspects of their coverage left me decidedly dissatisfied.

After two false starts in the Topham the previous day, the start to this year's National was always going to come under close scrutiny. The C4 team very nearly missed the boat completely with commentator Simon Holt still talking to camera while in the background eagle-eyed viewers could spot the 40 runners merrily setting off on their way.

The post-race re-run was slow to be compiled and, when it arrived, verged on the shambolic. The editorial decision to show the field jumping selected fences from different angles quickly led to confusion amongst the commentators, never mind the viewers.

Nick Luck's valiant efforts to keep commentating colleagues in check as well as the show on the road were admirable but in vain; he was fighting something of a losing battle when his instructions to 'stop' the re-run in order to discuss a particular point were then completely ignored by the station's technical team.

I'm still not sure whether I saw a replay of the three unseated riders at the Canal Turn on the first circuit...

Naively, I thought I could hop off to the Channel 4 On Demand site (4oD) to catch a replay of the great race. Not so. I was offered a replay of Alan Carr's Grand National Specstacular and Friday evening's excellent How To Win the Grand National but no replay of the race itself.

Enough!

Tomorrow's jumping cards have a low-key feel; I haven't done much homework. That said, I couldn't help but notice Claret Cloak heading the weights for the 4.15 handicap hurdle at Stratford. Now, Emma Lavelle has had a season from hell but this one was third behind Raya Star in a listed race at Ascot before Christmas and has form behind My Tent Or Yours in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and held an entry in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham before connections opted for the County Hurdle where the gelding finished mid-division.

Lavelle may have had only one winner since December 15th (Killyglass in the Aintree bumper last Saturday at odds of 20/1) but better ground is likely to suit her charge here and the tissue price of 10/1 looks decent each-way value for a horse with this profile running in a Stratford Class 3 handicap.

Aintree Grand National 2013

In the long chequered history of the Grand National, first run in 1839 and won by a horse called Lottery, there can be little doubt we've reached something of a crossroads. High profile equine fatalities in the previous two runnings have resulted in a number of changes to the course; the BHA defends the overall safety record of the race.

John Smith's sponsors the event for one final time, Channel 4 covers it for the very first time. The broadcaster, no doubt driven by viewing figures and potential comparisons with the BBC, has engaged in a high-risk, hard-sell advertising campaign which many in the sport suspect could backfire.

All will echo Tom Scudamore's view, expressed in Thursday's Times: 'I hope for a great spectacle and a safe race.'

For those who like to get involved, my Twitter guide to the National field may prove of limited use in making your own selection(s) [non-runners at the time of writing: Bob Lingo, Tofino Bay, Lion Na Bearnai, Bostons Angel, Quinz, Pearlysteps, Poker De Sivola, Backstage, Romanseco, Cloudy Lane and Gullible Gordon, while the two reserves are Pentiffic and Mortimers Cross]. Otherwise there's this...

I tend to prefer horses that have shown they can handle these unique fences, so here we go...

1. Cappa Bleu Fourth last year, beaten 12 lengths. Meets the second Sunnyhillboy 12 lbs better off and the third Seabass on 7lbs better terms. The course has been shortened half a furlong as part of the safety improvements and that could help the cause.

2. Seabass Excellent third last year; Katie Walsh rides for father Ted, no doubt hoping to become the first female to ride the winner of the race.

3. On His Own At around 7/1 there's little value to be had about the current market leader but he was going well when coming to grief at Bechers (second time) last year. Ruby Walsh rides for Willie Mullins.

4. Join Together Ruby Walsh rejected this one but a sterling performance in the Becher last December suggests Paul Nicholls' charge could be overpriced at around 18/1. Perhaps a little short on experience (no eight-year-old has won in the past decade), last year's winning jockey Daryl Jacob is in the plate.

5. Big Fella Thanks A little older these days but comes with an excellent completion record over these fences; now trained by Tom George, 40/1 seems big.

At the time of writing BetVictor offer a quarter the odds six places while the following layers pay five places: Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James and 888Sport.

The inside story on the 2013 Grand National runners

Days of Lost Glory, of Oscar Time, came flooding back to Imperial Commander Tarquinius following his defeat of Harry The Viking and Viking Blond.

Making his way back to Auroras Encore On His Own he ordered Seabass Tatenen with a Treacle side Forpadydeplasterer.

'How does he like it?' enquired Roberto Goldback.
'Rare, Bob,' came the laconic reply.

On a nearby table Major Malarkey from Colbert Station ordered Teaforthree and invited Joncol from Soll and the Balthazar King over.

'Let's Join Together!' he cried.

'Ballabriggs, Big Fella! Thanks! What A Friend! Quel Esprit!'

He wondered why he had bothered.

'It's Always Waining Across The Bay,' chipped in Sunnyhillboy, so named as he generally tended to put a dampener on things.

Becauseicouldntsee if Any Currency still remained, Mr Moonshine, wearing his Cappa Bleu, Mumbles, 'Head over to the Quiscover Fontaine, will you, where The Rainbow Hunter, Chicago Grey and Swing Bill are in the Ninetieth Minute of a discussion about Weird Al and his money.'

Pentiffic.

'Mortimers Cross,' he continues, 'but apparently the man is some kind of Saint. Are you?'

[With apologies to connections.]

Aintree 2013 - Friday is Ladies' Day

Sprinter Sacre, famously described three weeks ago as 'a steeplechaser from the gods' by Simon Holt following victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, steps up to two and a half miles in the John Smith's Melling Chase at 3.05.

A newspaper story earlier in the week reported trainer Nicky Henderson phoning his jockey Barry Geraghty at a late hour, having suffered three sleepless nights wondering whether the great horse would stay the trip.

Geraghty instantly told his boss to man up, stop worrying and then went on to reprimand the handler for not having phoned earlier... I shall watch from the sidelines but both Cue Card and Flemenstar can make this competitive - those so inclined can back both those horses and still obtain much better odds than layers quote about the favourite.

Four of the six runners in the Mildmay Novices' Chase (2.30) had hard enough races at Cheltenham 22 days ago so I'll side with Rocky Creek and opt to sidestep the Topham (3.40) after 100/1 chance Tartan Snow won the Fox Hunters' Chase over the National fences earlier today. For those who can't resist temptation Gullible Gordon (20/1) carrying a racing weight is the each-way suggestion on the back of his sixth in the Becher here last December - the stable has won the past three runnings of the race with Always Waining (declared for Saturday's National).

At Fishers Cross looks the one to beat in the Sefton (4.15). I'd expect a much better showing from Gevrey Chambetrin after his running at the Festival but I'm not certain the step up in trip will suit.

The opener looks strangely uncompetitive but there are some nice sorts in the concluding mares' bumper. Kim Bailey's Molly's A Diva puts her unbeaten record on the line - she finished ahead of five of these opponents last time out in a listed event run at Sandown on heavy ground.

The change in underfoot conditions here could easily see a reverse of the form. Carole's Spirit ran a good race in second that day but had previously been beaten on good ground when with a different trainer while Free Thinking lost her position two from home before staying on again for third. Centasia made some late headway and may come on but I'll consider taking a small each-way interest in Alan King's Our Pollyanna (14/1).

In the Weekender the trainer reports this one definitely hated the ground at Sandown so we can expect some improvement to come while the booking of Barry Geraghty catches the eye.

Aintree 2013 - Thursday

A quick post and some quick picks for those of a carefree disposition...

I'm inclined to give Irish Saint another chance against Rolling Star in the opener; he missed Cheltenham and comes here fresher than most. Kim Bailey's Hefner could be anything but the handler will not have entered the gelding on a whim.

Silviniaco Conti is the form choice in the Betfred Bowl (2.30) but he'll be no price. Only one favourite has obliged in the past ten years so I'll chance course and distance winner Quito De La Roque each-way.

The Aintree Hurdle looks very trappy. Barry Geraghty deserts previous winner Oscar Whisky to ride Grandouet who fell in the Champion and isn't always the most fluent of hurdlers. On official ratings The New One has enough to find with several of these more experienced rivals but the impressive manner in which he quickened to take the Neptune stays in the mind - The New One gets the vote.

A Twitter Guide to the 2013 Grand National entries

Here's my Twitter guide to the remaining 49 Grand National entries.

As in previous years the guide has been compiled using Twitter's 140 character limit for each individual entry.

Likely to prove of little use when selecting your horse for this year's National...

Imperial Commander 2010 Gold Cup winner picked up an injury in the 2011 race. Excellent return to the track in the Argento - a player if taking to fences.

What A Friend Pulled up behind Ballabriggs in 2011; prefers good ground, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson.

Weird Al Talented but enigmatic. Fell four from home in last year's race - previously has broken blood vessels.

Quel Esprit Grey who won Irish Hennessy last year and was then pulled out of the Cheltenham Gold Cup; Willie Mullins trains.

Big Fella Thanks 11-year-old with excellent completion record over the fences - now trained by Tom George.

Roberto Goldback Bought as a National horse for owner Simon Munir; bids to give Nicky Henderson his first win in the race.

Seabass Excellent third last year - Katie Walsh bids to win this for her father and become the first female jockey to win the race.

Ballabriggs 2011 winner runs in the colours of Mr Trevor Hemmings; sixth last year and now aged 12.

Sunnyhillboy Desperately unlucky to be beaten a nose by Neptune Collonges last year; connections try again...

Teaforthree Second in the Welsh National at Chepstow, he disappointed last time in Haydock's National Trial. Prefer plenty of cut.

Across The Bay  Seventh in the Welsh National; mixes chasing with hurdling.

Join Together Paul Nicholls' best chance but Ruby Walsh prefers to ride On His Own for Willie Mullins.

Bob Lingo Plenty of miles on the clock, never won beyond 22 furlongs; owned by J P McManus.

Colbert Station Comes to this in fine form, Ted Walsh trains; will McCoy ride?

Tofino Bay Fine second in NH Chase at Cheltenham 24 days ago, a race likely to have left its mark.

Forpadydeplasterer 2009 Arkle winner may atruggle to stay this trip.

On His Own Market leader, fell at Becher's on second circuit last year when going well in third. Ruby Walsh rides, Willie Mullins trains.

Joncol 2010 Irish Hennessy winner; others make more appeal.

Lion Na Bearnai Won 2012 Irish National at odds of 33/1; one track appearance since, pulled up behind Bobs Worth in Hennessy at Newbury.

Balthazar King Winner 2012 cross country race at Cheltenham Festival; better ground will help his chance.

Bostons Angel Form in cross country races at Cheltenham.

Cappa Bleu Stayed on for fourth in last year's renewal; place claims.

Oscar Time Second behind Ballabriggs in 2011. No comparable form since; part-owned by Robert Waley-Cohen.

Always Waining Won last three runnings of the Topham (over National fences); unlikely to stay the trip.

Quinz Pulled up before the Chair in the 2011; recent fourth in Kempton's Racing Plus Chase encouraging after long layoff - prefers good ground.

Tatenen Unseated rider at the Canal Turn last year; never won beyond 21 furlongs.

Treacle Likes sticky conditions underfoot.

Lost Glory J P McManus runner who likes to race prominently. In good form but McCoy likely to look elsewhere.

Saint Are Well beaten in the Kim Muir at the Festival last time.

Swing Bill Another well beaten in the Kim Muir.

Chicago Grey Won the NH Chase at Cheltenham in 2011. Unlucky to be brought down at the fifth last year; has the look of one trained for the race.

Quiscover Fontaine Fell at 17th fence last year.

Becauseicouldntsee Unseated rider at Canal turn last year; fifth in Kim Muir last time looks a decent preparation.

Harry The Viking Ninth in the Hennessy, tenth in the Kim Muir; trained by Paul Nicholls and part owned by Sir Alex Ferguson.

Rare Bob Brought down at fifth last year; supported in the market and quietly fancied.

The Rainbow Hunter Unexposed, interesting outsider; part owned by Racing UK presenter Oli Bell.

Mr Moonshine Second behind Cape Tribulation in Rowland Meryck reads well.

Mumbles Head 12-year-old who fell at the first in the Becher.

Pearlysteps Likely to stay but jumping has proved problematic in the past.

Auroras Encore Second in the 2012 Scottish National beaten a head; out of sorts of late.

Ninetieth Minute Most of his form on soft / heavy ground; never won beyond 22 furlongs.

Tarquinius Failed to build on decent effort when beaten 68 lengths in Leinster National at Naas last time out.

Any Currency Unseated Aidan Coleman in the Becher; fourth in the N. Yorks National to his name.

Major Malarkey Talented but quirky customer not always guaranteed to put his best foot forward.

Poker De Sivola Won the bet365 Gold Cup Chase at Sandown and seventh in the Becher. Likely to appreciate better ground.

Backstage Going well when hampered in 2010 and came home tenth when fancied in 2011.

Soll Well beaten in Hennessy and Welsh National but win at Sandown last time out.

Romaesco Decent third in the Kim Muir but fell in Monday's Irish National.

Viking Blond Twiston-Davies front-runner who wears blinkers and fell at first last year.

Cloudy Lane Stalwart now at the veteran stage; finished eighth in 2010.

Pentiffic Stable won the race with 100/1 shot Mon Mome in 2009; this one priced 150/1.

Guilible Gordon Moved to Peter Bowen's in mid-November; sixth in the Becher for new connections.

Mortimers Cross 200/1 outsider beaten a length in the Southern National at Fontwell.

At Easter - to play or not to play?

Just a brief post this evening as I don't intend to play tomorrow.

Winners are difficult to find at the best of times. If you're considering a wager at Dubai or even Doncaster, you may wish to note Alistair Whitehouse-Jones' comments in the Weekender:

'By all means enjoy this weekend's Dubai World Cup, but you'd be crackers to have a bet in it. Since moving from Nad Al Sheba to Meydan in 2010 it has become harder to predict than the Lincoln, with not one single-priced figure horse finishing in the first three.'

Quickly looking at the Haydock card, the opening Tim Moloney Chase is interesting but it's difficult to gauge the extent to which recent snowfalls have affected trainers' schedules, particularly those based in the North. In a short piece on the Sporting Life website, Sue Smith gave a glimpse into some of the problems encountered.

The biggest temptation to the resolve is likely to come in the shape of Newton Abbot's SIS Handicap Chase at 3.55. Worth over £15,000 to the winner, there are just five declared for a trappy-looking handicap.

Ulck Du Lin, trained by Paul Nicholls, is priced up favourite; the youngest horse in the race has the assistance of Ruby Walsh in the plate but is tasked with carrying top weight on heavy ground. Just fifteen days ago Nicholls' charge was pulled up in the Grand Annual at the Festival and looks vulnerable.

The outsider in the field Falcon Island has form this season behind both Ulck Du Lin and Eastlake. He was beaten thirteen and a half lengths by the former at Ascot when conceding seven pounds and then went down eigtheen lengths to the latter at Sandown giving away ten pounds. On the revised terms he is entitled to be competitive and Brendan Powell Jr can claim a further three. Priced at 12/1 with Paddy Power this evening, that resolve not to play is being tested somewhat...

Tight at the top of the Blue Square Premiership...

Rank may be suffering from a bout of the Blue Square blues as it tries to ditch the loss-making bookmaker but, just as it was last year, it's extremely tight at the top of the Premiership - the Blue Square Premiership.

On March 4th betting to win the Conference outright was as follows:

Grimsby 9/4f
Wrexham 11/4
Mansfield 4/1
Kidderminster 5/1
Newport 8/1

Two weeks later the prices are:

Mansfield 5/4f
Wrexham 100/30 (bet365)
Kidderminster 7/2 (Coral)
Newport 8/1 (Bet Victor)
Grimsby 20/1 (Bet Victor)

On Sunday Grimsby play Wrexham at Wembley in the final of the FA Trophy. Whilst both clubs insist the league is priority, both appear to have been distracted by this engagement, particularly The Mariners who have lost their last four games - both Forest Green and Macclesfield are now chasing Grimsby's promotion play-off place.

A feature of Wrexham's season has been the dropping of points at home against clubs they might have expected to beat.

Draws against Gateshead, Tamworth, Southport and Alfreton are starting to look expensive. The Welsh club has the most difficult run-in, scheduled to play Mansfield twice and Kidderminster at home. In addition the sharing of the Racecourse Ground with a rugby league team through the majority of the season has not been ideal and played its part in the postponement of the Mansfield fixture on Tuesday.

The Stags are on a phenomenal run. Following their 2-1 defeat at home to Liverpool in the FA Cup third round on 6th January, they have lost just two games - at home to Kidderminster and away to Newport - have won their last nine in a row and on current form look like champions elect.

A fortnight ago Newport County (8/1) were a value play for the title but a home defeat by Kidderminster in the interim has hurt prospects.

Of those teams challenging for the title, Newport's fixture congestion is the most severe - the club's call for the season to be extended, reiterated by Ebbsfleet boss Liam Daish, is likely to fall on deaf ears as the Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Wembley on May 25th.

Kidderminster currently sit top of the league on goal difference having played more games than all their rivals. Two away games, at Luton and Wrexham, will be keenly contested.

This evening Mansfield are in pole position and the layers have priced the market accordingly but we should expect a few twists and turns before the end of the season; the two games against Wrexham will be key.

Those wanting to take a view may wish to await the outcome of Sunday's FA Trophy final before risking long-time league leaders Wrexham at around the 100/30 mark.

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - the debrief

From a betting perspective, something of a curate's egg of a Festival - the favourites seemed to oblige when I took a chance and the outsiders obliged when I supported the favourite. It was ever thus.

Here are the profit / loss figures for the blog's Festival selections at recorded starting prices:

Tuesday 12th March
                                                                          RET
Dodging Bullets           9th   12/1    0.5pts EW  0.00
Zarkander                   4th     7/2        1pt WIN  0.00
Countrywide Flame     3rd   16/1    0.5pts EW  2.50
Fruity O'Rooney         5th   10/1     0.5pts EW  1.75 (layer pays 5 places)

Wednesday 13th March

Pont Alexandre          3rd    6/4F       1pt WIN  0.00
Unioniste                    4th    5/2F       1pt WIN  0.00
Milord                         4th   16/1      0.5EW       2.50
Sgt Reckless              13th   8/1         1pt WIN  0.00

Thursday 14 March

Dynaste                    2nd  11/8F       1pt WIN  0.00
Ely Brown                 6th   20/1       0.5EW       0.00
Cue Card                  1st     7/2          1pt WIN 4.50
Oscar Whisky           PU     9/4F        1pt WIN 0.00
Hunt Ball                   4th     8/1         0.5EW    1.40 (Rule 4 10% deduction)

Friday 15 March

Long Run                 3rd     7/2           1pt WIN 0.00
The Giant Bolster     4th    16/1         0.5EW    0.00

Total outlay:  15pts
Total returns: 12.65pts
Profit/loss:     -2.35pts
Win strike rate: 6.67%
Loss as % of turnover: 15.67%

An honourable mention must go to Ely Brown (20/1) who ran a fine race in Thursday's Pertemps Final but faded out of the placings up the famous Cheltenham hill.

For the future:The New One following his victory in the Neptune.

Ride of the week: Liam Treadwell on the front-running Carrickboy who obliged at 50/1 in Thursday's Byrne Group Plate.
  
Quote of the week, courtesy of Channel 4's Simon Holt: 'Sprinter Sacre - a steeplechaser from the gods.'

Upset of the week: 20/1 shot Oscar Delta's unseating of 18 year-old amateur Jane Mangan when appearing to have Friday's Foxhunter Chase in safe-keeping. Form book reads: '3 lengths clear last, staying on looked in command when jinked left and unseated rider flat.'

And finally spare a thought this evening for J.T. McNamara who remains in an induced coma following his fall from Galaxy Rock in Thursday's Kim Muir.

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Gold Cup day

Tomorrow's Gold Cup looks an intriguing renewal with 11 declared and the winner most likely to come from the first four in the market. In the past decade the favourite has obliged on six occasions; in that timeframe Synchronised was the biggest-priced winner, returned at 8/1 last year.

Nicky Henderson's Bobs Worth, rated 171, appears the worthy favourite. Small but with the heart of a lion, he won the RSA Chase last year, the Hennessy in December and is unbeaten at the track.

The worry is his preparation; he was forced to miss an engagement in the Argento Chase on account of a 'low grade' infection. Supporters point out that he has run well previously following a long lay-off but in the past 20 years every Gold Cup winner had seen the racetrack after the Christmas Day.

Ireland's main hope is Sir Des Champs. Last season he won the Jewson at the Cheltenham Festival and went on to take the Champion Novice Chase at the Punchestown Festival over a trip of three miles one furlong. This one clearly likes the track and supporters expect further improvement over the extended trip here. Off a rating of 168, he has something to find with the other principals.

On official ratings Silviniaco Conti (175) is the best horse in the race. This season he has beaten Wayward Prince in the Charlie Hall, Long Run and The Giant Bolster in the Betfair Chase and The Giant Bolster again in the Denman Chase, giving that rival four pounds on that occasion.

The slight worry is that all his wins at three miles plus have come on flat courses and there's a question as to whether he'll act on this track and see out the extended three mile two furlongs with the stiff uphill finish. In 2010 he won the Coral Hurdle over two miles three and sixteen months ago as a novice was quick enough to win over two miles five at Wincanton.

Long Run won the 2011 Gold Cup recording a rating of 179 in the process; his third in last year's renewal was given a mark of 182 yet this season he has struggled, given 172 for his neck defeat of Captain Chris in the King George at Kempton.

Amateur jockey Mr Sam Waley-Cohen, the owner's son, is on record as saying ideally he'd like to fit cheekpieces to his mount half way through the race; clearly that's not possible so connections will try the sheepskin aids for the first time tomorrow. This one is not the most fluent of jumpers and has a tendency to throw in the odd howler here and there, yet often his momentum seems unaffected. Following his jumping performance in the Feltham in 2009, a race he won, I never thought he could win a Gold Cup but, yet again, I've been proven wrong.

You pay your money and takes your choice; 6/1 Long Run looks reasonable value for a horse that's been there and done it before.

The each-way chances appear to be Captain Chris, Cape Tribulation and The Giant Bolster.

Captan Chris has had an excellent season and looked unlucky in the King George, although he came on the scene from a different parish that day. Better ground will suit but connections say he prefers to race right-handed.

At the age of nine Cape Tribulation is in the form of his life and in Denis O'Regan has the perfect partner for his hold-up style of running.

I backed The Giant Bolster each-way at 66/1 last year and just for a moment I thought he might win. He didn't and in the past placed horses haven't tended to improve enough to win. His jumping can look a little fragile on occasions but he certainly acts on the the track.

I'm aware Long Run bids to become only the second horse in history to regain the Gold Cup (and Oscar Whisky's run earlier today is an additional worry) but at eight years of age he's young enough. I take Long Run to win (6/1 Ladbrokes) with The Giant Bolster the each-way chance at around 14/1.

I've been impressed with Gevrey Chambertin this season and David Pipe will have done his utmost to ensure the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle is won for his father but the grey has his share of weight (although Tom Bellamy claims six) and there's no value in his price.

In similar vein, thirty five minutes later Nicky Henderson saddles six of the 24 runners in the race named after his father.        

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Thursday

Struggling for time today, so quick picks for tomorrow's races...

1.30 Jewson: On official ratings Dynaste has upwards of nine pounds in hand over the field and is the form selection.

2.05 Pertemps Hurdle: Paul Nicholls has said Sam Winner is his best chance of a winner at the entire meeting while Dan Skelton put up American Trilogy as the stable's best outsider of the entire meet. A look through American Trilogy's form suggests he may not quite stay this trip - I prefer Warwick winner Ely Brown who has shown plenty of improvement for Charlie Longsdon and rates an each-way wager at around the 20/1 mark.

2.40 Ryanair Chase: Only eight runners but a rather trappy looking affair. Riverside Theatre, owned by James Nesbitt and partners, beat Albertas Run in this last year; Albertas is probably past his best at the age of twelve but he has proved a fine servant who shows his best form on good ground. Cue Card has been diverted from the Champion Chase, First Lieutenant the Gold Cup, while Menorah doesn't jump well enough. In the past eight renewals the winner has come form the first three in the bettng on seven occasions - First Lieutenant hasn't won since his novice days so Cue Card gets the vote.

3.20 World Hurdle: No Big Buck's so an open-looking affair. Reve De Sivola's neck defeat of Oscar Whisky at the track seven weeks ago is a key piece of form. Doubts about Oscar Whisky's ability to stay the trip were dispelled that day and the drying ground may just help Nicky Henderson's charge - I'm going to give Oscar Whisky another chance...

4.00 Byrne Group Plate: Ballynagour made an impression on his debut in this country for the Pipe yard but course and distance winner Hunt Ball is given an each-way chance over this trip on drying ground.

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Wednesday

Traditionally Wednesday's highlight is the Queen Mother Champion Chase; this year's renewal looks a race to enjoy rather than bet on as Sprinter Sacre looks set for an exhibition round.

Nicky Henderson's star has frightened off most of the opposition - with just seven in the field my cunning plan to chance Mail De Bievre each-way has been thwarted. Tom George's inmate has been supplemented at a cost of £17,500 and boasts decent French form over two and a half miles; he raced freely while jumping with exuberance on his debut for the yard before appearing to run out of petrol over the three mile trip at Newbury.

Feedback from a couple of Festival Preview evenings makes me loathe to oppose Willie Mullins' Pont Alexandre in the Neptune; for future reference Sizing Gold is reported to be held in high regard by connections.

With Dynaste heading for the Jewson on Thursday and Back In Focus going in the first race on this card, the RSA market has an open look to it. Houblon Des Obeaux has appeared awkward over the fences on occasions while Hadrian's Approach is a robust sort who tends to throw in a poor leap every now and again. This is a big ask for Goulanes on only his second try over the larger obstacles while Lord Windermere has never raced beyond two miles five before. Of the Willie Mullins pair Terminal is rated four pounds higher than Boston Bob yet the former is 25/1 while the latter is priced up favourite. By opting to ride Unioniste, Ruby Walsh has chosen to ignore their chances and, as Walsh has already shown exemplary powers of decision-making (Champagne Fever and Hurricane Fly), Unioniste gets the nod.

The Coral and the Fred Winter look extremely difficult; one that caught my eye in the 4.40 was Kim Bailey's Milord. This one brings decent Flat form to the table and ran well behind Chatterbox (goes in the Neptune at 2.05) last time out. For those who must, he's an each-way chance at around 20/1.

Over the years I've usually gone to the track on the Wednesday - unfortunately I won't be there this year - and the concluding bumper is a race I always like; this year's field contains several interesting runners. Back in November Mick Channon had to withdraw Sgt Reckless from the bumper at the Open Meeting on account of a small setback. The Times' racing correspondent Alan Lee reported Channon as saying the horse would have won, a nugget that I duly reported on the blog. I can now report that in the intervening four months Sgt Reckless is the name of the horse that has generated the most Google hits on the blog - make of that what you will. In early January Sgt Reckless traded at 33/1 but he's now 7s and Flat jockey Richard Hughes has obtained a special licence to ride in tomorrow's race.

The four-year-old Le Vent D'Antan heads a strong Irish challenge while Willie Mullins saddles three with Walsh riding Briar Hill and Mr P. Mullins Union Dues.

40/1 looks a big a price about Pure Science. After the withdrawal of three runners last week (including Imperial Commander from the Gold Cup) the form of the yard is a worry but The New One's running in the Neptune should provide a yardstick.

I'm Fraam Govan is owned by Sir Alex Ferguson while most of the four-year-olds catch the eye. Joseph O'Brien, another Flat jockey, rides Shield for his father Aidan and I've heard a word for Vieux Lion Rouge and Johnny Og - both will be worth monitoring in the future.

This year I've come across more tips for this race than I can shake a stick at but the selection has to be... Sgt Reckless!

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Tuesday

The feature on the opening day, the Champion Hurdle, sees 2011 winner Hurricane Fly trying to regain his crown - the last horse to pull off this particular trick was Comedy Of Errors in 1975. Since the great Sea Pigeon won back-to-back victories in 1980/81, only two nine-year-olds have come home in front - Royal Gait (1992) and Rooster Booster (2003).

The stats may be against the favourite but his racecourse record stands the closest of inspections - 15 victories and two defeats in 17 outings.Those who want to oppose may wish to do so with Paddy Power who offer money back on all losing win wagers (up to a maximum £100) if 'The Fly' wins.

With underfoot conditions predicted to be soft, the ground appears to have gone against Cinders And Ashes and would be a slight worry for last year's winner Rock On Ruby. Trainer Harry Fry boasts a strike rate of over 30% (17 wins from just 55 runs) in this his first full season; the handler has decided to fit blinkers to his charge for the first time.

A worry for all particpiants is the lack of an obvious pacemaker in the race; a tactical running of the Champion Hurdle looks a distinct possibility. The ground holds no fears for Zarkander - his defeat of Grandouet and Rock On Ruby in the International last December was impressive but he received two pounds from the runner-up and four from the current champion that day.

Henderson saddles three - Binocular, another nine-year old looking to repeat former glories, Grandouet and Khyber Kim. This is just the season's second racecourse outing for both Binocular and Grandouet.

A fascinating renewal - Zarkander is the selection while Countrywide Flame (16/1) rates a value each-way wager, although in the past thirty years only two five-year-olds have taken the crown - See You Then (1985) and Katchit (2008).

William Hill pay a quarter the odds five places in the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle - two each-ways suggestions against favourite My Tent Or Yours together with the rest of the field - Melodic Rendezvous and Dodging Bullets.

The Arkle is a race to savour rather than one to bet on. The build-up has concentrated on Simonsig and the front-running Overturn. The latter-named has done this blog many a favour over the years but he wouldn't want the ground too soft; Simonsig is preferred while Tom George's Majala could run a race that belies his price.

One other suggestion for the opening day - Alfie Sherrin pipped an old favourite of mine Fruity O'Rooney (no relation to Wayne) one length in last year's running of the JLT Speciality Handicap Chase (Our Mick third). Fruity races off a mark one pound lower this year and his second behind Katenko last time out catches the eye - Our Mick was travelling well in that same race on his seasonal debut when unseating Jason Maguire three from home. Our Mick heads the market, having the look of one laid out for this, but Fruity O'Rooney races prominently and can establish a rhythm from the front - he rates an each-way bet at around the 10/1 mark.

Postscript [added 11.03.13 14:00]: Melodic Rendezvous not declared for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle following a bad scope.

Nicholls top Festival trainer?

The top trainer market for the 2013 Cheltenham Festival is dominated by Nicky Henderson (4/6f) and Willie Mullins (2/1) yet last year's champion NH trainer, Paul Nicholls, can be backed at 10/1 in places (Betfred, William Hill).

Most of us understand why Henderson and Mullins are at the head of affairs but 10/1 is a big enough price about Nicholls who has traditionally fared well at this meeting so I thought I'd do some basic spadework on the trainer's horses for next week.

Here's a selection of his entries (with indicative prices only) which were correct (I think) at the time of publishing this post...

Tuesday

1.30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Dodging Bullets (9/1)
2.40 JLT Speciality Handicap Chase: Rolling Aces (12/1)
3.20 Champion Hurdle: Zarkander (9/2)
5.15 Pulteney Novices' Handicap Chase: Rebel Rebellion (20/1 [runs 4.25 Sandown, Sat.])

Wednesday

1.30 John Oaksey National Hunt Chase: Hawkes Point (16/1)
2.30 RSA Chase: Unioniste (4/1)
3.20 Champion Chase: Sanctuaire (16/1)
4.00 Coral Cup: Wonderful Charm (was 7/1 but drifting), Salubrious (20/1), Brampour (33/1)
4.40 Fred Winter Hurdle: Saphir Du Rheu (7/1), Pitt Zig (9/1)
5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper: Fascino Rustico (16/1)

Thursday

1.30 Jewson Novices' Chase: Unioniste (14/1)
2.05 Pertemps Final: Sam Winner (4/1), American Trilogy (20/1)
2.40 Ryanair Chase: Ghizao (33/1)
3.20 World Hurdle: Wonderful Charm (12/1), Celestial Halo (33/1), Prospect Wells (40/1)
4.00 Byrne Group Chase: Poquelin (20/1), Domtaline (20/1)
4.40 Kim Muir: Harry The Viking (16/1)

Friday

1.30 Triumph Hurdle: Far West (4/1)
2.05 County Hurdle: Mr Mole (6/1 [runs Imperial Cup, Sat.]), Hinterland (20/1), Edgardo Sol (25/1)
2.40 Albert Bartlett: Aaim To Prosper (20/1), Aerial (33/1), Easter Day (33/1), Pay The King (40/1)
3.20 Gold Cup: Silviniaco Conti (4/1)
4.40 Martin Pipe: Salubrious (14/1)
5.15 Grand Annual: Ulck Du Lin (8/1), Toubab (16/1), Shooters Wood (16/1), Edgardo Sol (25/1)

Henderson deserves his position at the head of the market but there are some reasonable chances listed above which makes the 10/1 on offer look big to this observer.

Late tweet from the trainer himself - he rates Sam Winner his best chance of the week and is 'very hopeful' about Zarkander and Silviniaco Conti.

Doncaster's Grimthorpe Chase 2013

I always try to conserve funds at this time of year, with Cheltenham just around the corner, so just the one suggestion from tomorrow's cards...

Twelve go to post in Doncaster's Grimthorpe Chase (2.55); the bottom three race from out of the handicap.

Both Calgary Bay and Join Together are tasked with giving significant weight to their opponents in a race where the winner has tended to come from those carrying less than 11 stones.

Join Together, second in the Becher at Aintree last December, looks to be using this as a stepping stone to the National. Paul Nicholls' charge heads the market followed by Emma Lavelle's Court By Surprise who won over three miles at this track on December 15th (beat Night In Milan, Corkage, Ikorodu Road, Quentin Collonges and Mr Moonshine that day); the negative is that was 77 days ago and the yard hasn't had a winner since.

Ikorudu Road is one that I like and he likes it here having won last year's runnng although he may have been slightly fortunate to benefit from the final fence fall of Pentiffic; he races off 138 tomorrow, a mark 8 lbs higher.

Trainer Keith Reveley thinks there isn't much between his pair, Corkage and Night In Milan. Both charges have mixed hurdling and chasing of late - in particular Corkage will need to establish a decent rhythm early as he tends to race up with the pace. The market clearly prefers Night In Milan (7/1) while Corkage is on offer at 14/1 in places.

Mr Moonshine was 38 lengths behind Court By Surprise in December but his subsequent second to Cape Tribulation (has gone on to win the Argento at Cheltenham and now quoted a 25/1 chance for the Gold Cup) in Wetherby's Rowland Meryck reads well.

Evan Williams' Mr Moss is possibly a liitle less exposed than some of these but has form behind Wyck Hill to his name and has had this as his target for some time.

At the prices, I'll take an each-way interest in last year's winner Ikorodu Road (10/1 Ladbrokes. Coral).