Firstly, the profit/loss details on the blog's highlighted selections at this year's Festival to a £1 level stake...
Tuesday
Punjabi WIN 15/2 - unplaced
Garde Champetre WIN 7/4f - fifth
Wednesday
Poker De Sivola E/W 14/1 WON - returned 8.75
Peddlers Cross WIN 7/1 WON - returned 8.00
Punchestowns WIN 2/1f - fifth
Kalahari King WIN 9/2 - third
Shot From The Hip WIN 3/1f - unplaced
Thursday
Poquelin WIN 11/4f - second
Karabak E/W 15/2 - fourth
Friday
Tell Massini WIN 100/30f - pulled up
Kauto Star WIN 8/11f - fell
Total wagered £11.00
Total returned £16.75
Profit/loss +£5.75
Win strike rate 18.18%
Profit as % of turnover 52.27%
Surprisingly, the figures read well enough. Wednesday was the lucky day - you may have noticed a more conservative approach thereafter... Some others mentioned in dispatches also performed with credit, most notably Cue Card who won the bumper at 40/1 (paid 60/1 on the Tote) and 14/1 Ryanair winner Albertas Run. Having gone to the trouble to dig out Colin Tizzard's quote about Cue Card the night before, you would have thought I'd have taken the trouble to place a bet but I didn't; at around 5.25 Wednesday evening I received a text from a colleague at the track who had bet the horse on the Nanny - that's racing!
This time last week media talk was of the four 'bankers'. Of the four - Dunguib, Master Minded, Big Buck's and Kauto Star - only Big Buck's obliged, making this a Festival for the layers. Commentators estimate the bookmaking industry is £60 million up over the four days.
Congratulations to connections of Imperial Commander who won the Gold Cup with authority. The decison to bill the showpiece as a two horse race (Kauto v. Denman) looks flawed now. I was amazed to hear Ms Fiona Bruce tell the nation on Friday's ten o'clock news that 'an outsider' had won the Cheltenham Gold Cup. If Imperial Commander was an outsider at 7/1, what was 250/1 shot Mr Pointment? A rank outsider possibly - I suppose we'll have to put it down to cutbacks in the BBC's racing coverage.
There were some notable performances over the four days but one that will live with me for a long time was Barizan's effort to make all in the Triumph. I've replayed that race a couple of times - had he not run down the last obstacle and landed in something of a heap, he would have gone extremely close; to me it looks as though he starts to make some ground on winner Soldatino as they climb the hill to the line - the form book reads 'rallied towards finish'.
Friday was Nigel Twiston-Davies' day. After taking the Gold Cup, elder son Sam Twiston-Davies rode the stable's Baby Run to victory in the Chrisitie's Foxhunter Chase. By this time the rain had started to get into the ground; fans of the slow-motion finish were in their element - for a moment I thought I was watching the final stages of a three mile handicap chase at Towcester. Not to be outdone by his elder brother, the younger Twiston-Davies was caught on camera running around in a highly-excited manner and then doing a quick 'live' interview. Some words of advice for this young man... I have no problems with your wagging off school, especially if you want go to the races, but don't do live TV interviews from the track as the chances are somebody will snitch on you. I fear a visit to the head teacher's office for a severe 'dressing down' will be on the cards tomorrow morning...
Finally, with the return of the Flat just around the corner, a quote from Kieren Fallon who was unfortunately punched by an owner while unsaddling Elna Bright at Lingfield yesterday: '...but I'm all right - he hits like a girl!'
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Friday, March 19, 2010
Midlands Grand National anyone?
After a bookies' week at Cheltenham (review to follow in a separate post), there's the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter tomorrow for those with any cash left. Somebody who should have plenty of fifties in his back pocket is Nigel Twiston-Davies after the yard finished the last day of this year's Festival with a 748/1 treble courtesy of Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup (7/1), Baby Run, ridden by son Sam Twiston-Davies, in the Foxhunter Chase (9/2jf) and Pigeon Island in the finale (16/1). With the stable in such fine form, I had this idea to back one of theirs in the Uttoxeter feature but guess what - they don't have one entered.
Eighteen have been declared; the going is currently described as good, good-to-soft in places, but the way the rain is falling in Coventry at the moment I'm guessing it'll ride soft on the day. In the last ten years the race has been run eight times with the winner never carrying more than ten stones nine and on each occasion being aged between seven and nine. Of the eighteen, the four I've concentrated on are the Philip Hobbs pair Ballydub and Mark The Book, Sherwoods Folly and Irish raider Inoma James. Hobbs, in fine form at the Festival, fields three, the other one being Kornati Kid who is highly regarded but didn't appear to take the preliminaries at all well in the Welsh National the last time - his chance had gone before the start. The trainer picks out Ballydub in first time blinkers as his pick of the three. Sherwoods Folly has had a decent break coming to this and makes some appeal off a light weight while the chance of Inoma James is more obvious - he won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown at the end of January on heavy ground. Irish-trained runners have a good record in this race, having won three times since 2002 - I'll take an each-way interest in Inoma James at around 9/1.
Of those near the head of the handicap Le Beau Bai looks on the small side for a big weight while Synchronised was declared for the four mile National Hunt Chase at the Festival on Wednesday but was then withdrawn, presumably on account of the ground; underfoot conditions will be more to his liking here.
Eighteen have been declared; the going is currently described as good, good-to-soft in places, but the way the rain is falling in Coventry at the moment I'm guessing it'll ride soft on the day. In the last ten years the race has been run eight times with the winner never carrying more than ten stones nine and on each occasion being aged between seven and nine. Of the eighteen, the four I've concentrated on are the Philip Hobbs pair Ballydub and Mark The Book, Sherwoods Folly and Irish raider Inoma James. Hobbs, in fine form at the Festival, fields three, the other one being Kornati Kid who is highly regarded but didn't appear to take the preliminaries at all well in the Welsh National the last time - his chance had gone before the start. The trainer picks out Ballydub in first time blinkers as his pick of the three. Sherwoods Folly has had a decent break coming to this and makes some appeal off a light weight while the chance of Inoma James is more obvious - he won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown at the end of January on heavy ground. Irish-trained runners have a good record in this race, having won three times since 2002 - I'll take an each-way interest in Inoma James at around 9/1.
Of those near the head of the handicap Le Beau Bai looks on the small side for a big weight while Synchronised was declared for the four mile National Hunt Chase at the Festival on Wednesday but was then withdrawn, presumably on account of the ground; underfoot conditions will be more to his liking here.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Cheltenham Festival - Friday
The Gold Cup, the feature race of the whole meeting, is due off at 3.20. He'll be no price but I cannot desert Kauto Star. The media has played its part in building this into a Kauto v. Denman battle but McCoy's mount fluffed his lines the last time at Newbury - significant rainfall would improve Denman's chance but that seems unlikely. Trainer Paul Nicholls is on record saying that Imperial Commander represents the biggest threat to the main protagonists; 8/1 with most layers, the each-way appeal has disappeared and at the back of my mind I can still see his howler at the second in the King George, a jump that effectively put him out of the race. Cooldine is similarly priced so if you're looking for an each-way alternative to the favourite Tricky Trickster is the suggestion - he runs in this on the way to next month's Grand National for which he's currently 10/1 joint favourite.The opener, the Triumph Hurdle, is invariably a rough race and not one I particularly like. Early season Barizan was quite highly-rated and Evan Williams looks to have freshened him up for a stab at this. Carlito Brigante is my idea of the winner but at odds of around 9/2 I won't get involved.
The Albert Bartlett looks fascinating with many of the leading contenders having shown their best form with cut underfoot - how they handle tomorrow's conditions is anybody's guess. Silver Kate is a tough likeable mare who tends to race from the front which is likely to leave her vulnerable here. Favourite Tell Massini won in impressive fashion the last time while Restless Harry did this blog a favour over a shorter trip at this course seven weeks ago. Kennel Hill is one to be wary of while both Possol and Cappa Bleu have been trying their luck over fences. I'm going to take a chance with Tell Massini.
The Pipe yard will be keen to take the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle and my guess is that's why Ashkazar is priced up 9/2 favourite. There's been a hint of a plot brewing with his last couple of runs but I won't be tempted.
Similarly Nicky Henderson fields three in an attempt to take the finale, named after his father. French Opera, with David Bass claiming seven, has a clear chance while stable jockey Barry Geraghty rides You're The Top and A P McCoy Pepsyrock. I'll watch with interest from the sidelines.
And that will be that... We'll come back next year and do it all over again!
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Cheltenham Festival 2010 - Thursday
I'm a little pressed for time, so just a couple of selections for Thursday's card...
The feature is the World Hurdle at 3.20 in which 14 go to post. Paul Nicholls' Big Buck's won this last year and will start long odds-on. Whilst acknowledging he's supremely talented, I should point out that he's not entirely straightforward and is often described as something of a character; for that reason alone I couldn't entertain taking such a short price. Last year he was tried initially over fences but it was the return to hurdling that made him; this year Tidal Bay could be placed in the same category after his impressive win in the Cleeve six and a half weeks ago. TB has the look of an each-way bet to nothing as does Karabak, although it's interesting to note that the latter's trainer Alan King has sounded far more bullish about Katchit's prospects, that one apparently having really come to himself in the last fortnight. This evening Coral bet 22/1 Katchit while William Hill go 12s. Katchit each-way is very tempting but on official ratings he has twelve pounds to find with his stablemate so I'll back Karabak each-way against the favourite at around 8/1. I note that Coral go 80/1 Cape Tribulation which looks big for a horse that has some smart form to his name including fifth in last year's Albert Bartlett behind Weapon's Amnesty (won the RSA earlier today) and second behind Zaynar in the Relkeel. He has won over this trip but has been running over two miles recently - at the price I might have a small place bet.
It looks a classy renewal of the Ryanair at 2.40. Alan King's Voy Por Ustedes was odds-on for this last year - he finished second to Imperial Commander after a bad mistake four out - yet this year he's 16/1! Admittedly he has been a little hit and miss of late but that still looks decent each-way value. Albertas Run is another who could run well at a price - I always feel the key to this horse is good ground and he'll get that tomorrow. Deep Purple is bang there on ratings and has been given plenty of time to recover after breaking a blood vessel in the King George over Christmas. Since its inception in 2005 the winner has come from the first three in the market and on that basis it looks between Poquelin, Tranquil Sea and Barbers Shop. On official ratings Poquelin has at least four pounds in hand over his market rivals so he gets the vote.
The feature is the World Hurdle at 3.20 in which 14 go to post. Paul Nicholls' Big Buck's won this last year and will start long odds-on. Whilst acknowledging he's supremely talented, I should point out that he's not entirely straightforward and is often described as something of a character; for that reason alone I couldn't entertain taking such a short price. Last year he was tried initially over fences but it was the return to hurdling that made him; this year Tidal Bay could be placed in the same category after his impressive win in the Cleeve six and a half weeks ago. TB has the look of an each-way bet to nothing as does Karabak, although it's interesting to note that the latter's trainer Alan King has sounded far more bullish about Katchit's prospects, that one apparently having really come to himself in the last fortnight. This evening Coral bet 22/1 Katchit while William Hill go 12s. Katchit each-way is very tempting but on official ratings he has twelve pounds to find with his stablemate so I'll back Karabak each-way against the favourite at around 8/1. I note that Coral go 80/1 Cape Tribulation which looks big for a horse that has some smart form to his name including fifth in last year's Albert Bartlett behind Weapon's Amnesty (won the RSA earlier today) and second behind Zaynar in the Relkeel. He has won over this trip but has been running over two miles recently - at the price I might have a small place bet.
It looks a classy renewal of the Ryanair at 2.40. Alan King's Voy Por Ustedes was odds-on for this last year - he finished second to Imperial Commander after a bad mistake four out - yet this year he's 16/1! Admittedly he has been a little hit and miss of late but that still looks decent each-way value. Albertas Run is another who could run well at a price - I always feel the key to this horse is good ground and he'll get that tomorrow. Deep Purple is bang there on ratings and has been given plenty of time to recover after breaking a blood vessel in the King George over Christmas. Since its inception in 2005 the winner has come from the first three in the market and on that basis it looks between Poquelin, Tranquil Sea and Barbers Shop. On official ratings Poquelin has at least four pounds in hand over his market rivals so he gets the vote.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Cheltenham Festival 2010 - Wednesday
For the first time in well over ten years I'll be missing the Wednesday card at the Festival. Enough of that, let's get on with the job in hand...
The feature is the Queen Mother Champion Chase at 3.20 in which nine go to post. The current two mile champ, Master Minded, attempts to become only the second horse to win this on three consecutive occasions - Badsworth Boy achieved the feat 1983-85. This horse has had an operation for a cracked rib over the winter; his demolition of a small field in the Game Spirit the last time appeared to indicate the horse was back to his best. He put in several spring-heeled leaps although he nearly came a cropper with a bad blunder at the last. Visually the performance was impressive but Voy Por Ustedes didn't run his race and the third that day, Fix The Rib, finished third in a Class 4 novice hurdle at Taunton on Monday. If the real MM turns up, quotes of 5/6 will look generous afterwards but on grounds of value alone I'm going to look elsewhere. Twist Magic, despite continuing to display signs of temperament, has shown marked improvement this season; having said that he hasn't run well here in previous years so I'm going with Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King. This one won the Arkle last year, will appreciate drying ground and put in an excellent performance on his seasonal debut to take Doncaster's Blue Square Handicap Chase - that was five and a half weeks ago.
Long Run, already spoken of as a future Gold Cup winner, is favourite for the RSA but I can't have him. Only two five-year-olds have taken this since 1950, on occasions his jumping has been sketchy and, in addition, his jockey is an amateur. If it's close on the run up the hill, Mr Sam Waley-Cohen is unlikely to prevail at the finish. Diamond Harry is another whose jumping hasn't convinced - my original selection in this was Weird Al but he picked up an injury just a few days ago. Punchestowns comes here with less experience over the larger obstacles than is ideal, he's had an injury scare over the last fortnight and he made a big blunder at Sandown before going on to score. I'll back Punchestowns in a race that has thrown up its fair share of shocks in the past - four of the last ten winners were priced in double figures, Hussard Collonges going in at 33/1 in 2002.
In the Neptune I'm going to take a chance on Peddlers Cross showing further improvement for the step up in trip; connections had considered a run in the Supreme. I think Rite Of Passage looks vulnerable; Finian's Rainbow is respected but no seven-year-old has won the last ten renewals. I have to mention The Giant Bolster, a big horse who got bogged down in the mud at Fontwell the last time. He's out of his depth here but is one to keep an eye on.
In the opening four mile National Hunt Chase Coral's 18/1 about Poker De Sivola offers some each-way value. Favourite Massasoit can be a tricky ride for a pro so makes even less appeal with an amateur up. Two others worthy of consideration are Synchronised - the Jonjo O'Neill operation has won this race four times since 2002 - and Abbeybraney.
Over the years I've burnt my fingers often enough in the Coral Cup (and more recently in the Fred Winter as well) to make me want to watch from the sidelines. In the Coral On Raglan Road should be noted - before today he was the only horse to have beaten Dunguib; he's been off the track nearly a year but comes to this backed by positive comments from the stable. Five-year-olds have a poor record in the Coral - invariably a rough race - which is a negative for likely favourite Quantitativeeasing. Jockey Tom Scudamore has put up Hunterview in the Fred Winter as his best chance of a winner this week while top weight Stars Du Granits was a market mover the last time in Haydock's Victor Ludorum (ran on soft ground) but he got no further than the second flight - Me Voici went on to collect the spoils.
In the bumper, I'm going to refer to an article Nick Mordin worte in the Weekender about six weeks ago. Nick pointed out that in this race, over the past five years, the Racing Post top-rated animal has won four times. When that article was published Araucaria was the top bumper horse seen out - since then the mare has been beaten easily by Shot From The Hip; in theory, that one should be thereabouts. It's worth noting that Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Al Ferof (in preference to anything from the Mullins stable) and I have to give a quick mention to Colin Tizzard's Cue Card. Quoting Colin from a recent Straight From the Stable article in the Weekender: 'I said before he won [his last race] he was the best bumper horse I've had and nothing has dissuaded me since from that view.' A couple of layers go 40/1 this evening - I may be tempted into a small each-way interest.
The feature is the Queen Mother Champion Chase at 3.20 in which nine go to post. The current two mile champ, Master Minded, attempts to become only the second horse to win this on three consecutive occasions - Badsworth Boy achieved the feat 1983-85. This horse has had an operation for a cracked rib over the winter; his demolition of a small field in the Game Spirit the last time appeared to indicate the horse was back to his best. He put in several spring-heeled leaps although he nearly came a cropper with a bad blunder at the last. Visually the performance was impressive but Voy Por Ustedes didn't run his race and the third that day, Fix The Rib, finished third in a Class 4 novice hurdle at Taunton on Monday. If the real MM turns up, quotes of 5/6 will look generous afterwards but on grounds of value alone I'm going to look elsewhere. Twist Magic, despite continuing to display signs of temperament, has shown marked improvement this season; having said that he hasn't run well here in previous years so I'm going with Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King. This one won the Arkle last year, will appreciate drying ground and put in an excellent performance on his seasonal debut to take Doncaster's Blue Square Handicap Chase - that was five and a half weeks ago.
Long Run, already spoken of as a future Gold Cup winner, is favourite for the RSA but I can't have him. Only two five-year-olds have taken this since 1950, on occasions his jumping has been sketchy and, in addition, his jockey is an amateur. If it's close on the run up the hill, Mr Sam Waley-Cohen is unlikely to prevail at the finish. Diamond Harry is another whose jumping hasn't convinced - my original selection in this was Weird Al but he picked up an injury just a few days ago. Punchestowns comes here with less experience over the larger obstacles than is ideal, he's had an injury scare over the last fortnight and he made a big blunder at Sandown before going on to score. I'll back Punchestowns in a race that has thrown up its fair share of shocks in the past - four of the last ten winners were priced in double figures, Hussard Collonges going in at 33/1 in 2002.
In the Neptune I'm going to take a chance on Peddlers Cross showing further improvement for the step up in trip; connections had considered a run in the Supreme. I think Rite Of Passage looks vulnerable; Finian's Rainbow is respected but no seven-year-old has won the last ten renewals. I have to mention The Giant Bolster, a big horse who got bogged down in the mud at Fontwell the last time. He's out of his depth here but is one to keep an eye on.
In the opening four mile National Hunt Chase Coral's 18/1 about Poker De Sivola offers some each-way value. Favourite Massasoit can be a tricky ride for a pro so makes even less appeal with an amateur up. Two others worthy of consideration are Synchronised - the Jonjo O'Neill operation has won this race four times since 2002 - and Abbeybraney.
Over the years I've burnt my fingers often enough in the Coral Cup (and more recently in the Fred Winter as well) to make me want to watch from the sidelines. In the Coral On Raglan Road should be noted - before today he was the only horse to have beaten Dunguib; he's been off the track nearly a year but comes to this backed by positive comments from the stable. Five-year-olds have a poor record in the Coral - invariably a rough race - which is a negative for likely favourite Quantitativeeasing. Jockey Tom Scudamore has put up Hunterview in the Fred Winter as his best chance of a winner this week while top weight Stars Du Granits was a market mover the last time in Haydock's Victor Ludorum (ran on soft ground) but he got no further than the second flight - Me Voici went on to collect the spoils.
In the bumper, I'm going to refer to an article Nick Mordin worte in the Weekender about six weeks ago. Nick pointed out that in this race, over the past five years, the Racing Post top-rated animal has won four times. When that article was published Araucaria was the top bumper horse seen out - since then the mare has been beaten easily by Shot From The Hip; in theory, that one should be thereabouts. It's worth noting that Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Al Ferof (in preference to anything from the Mullins stable) and I have to give a quick mention to Colin Tizzard's Cue Card. Quoting Colin from a recent Straight From the Stable article in the Weekender: 'I said before he won [his last race] he was the best bumper horse I've had and nothing has dissuaded me since from that view.' A couple of layers go 40/1 this evening - I may be tempted into a small each-way interest.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Cheltenham Festival 2010 - Tuesday
The waiting is nearly over... The first race of the 2010 Cheltenham Festival, the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, kicks off this year's extravaganza at 1.30 - listen for the roar as the starter lets them go. Over the years I've adopted a cautious approach on the first day and, on balance, it has proved the correct approach.
This year Dunguib will be sent off odds-on in the opener; his victory in last year's bumper was generally regarded as exceptional. Having said that, the last time he ran he didn't jump the hurdles particularly well. Those looking to oppose will have to consider Get Me Out Of Here who won the totesport Trophy in the manner of a very good horse - Oldrik, fifth in that race, franked the form with a battling second in the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday. However GMOOH returned from that race with a nasty gash in the leg and will have missed some work. I've seen the odd word for David Pipe's Dan Breen at a price but this is a race I'll watch from the sidelines. Fiulin, a son of Galileo, is an interesting runner having been bought out of Marco Botti's yard for £280,000. He won a listed race on the Flat and also beat The Betchworth Kid so quotes of 150/1 about his chances are perhaps a little unkind.
The Arkle is a tough race and one I always avoid. For those braver than me, Somersby is the selection. If you fancy Captain Cee Bee, note that only two nine-year-olds have won this since the war and only one favourite in the last decade.
There are plenty with chances in the ultra-competitive William Hill Trophy. Alan King's Bensalem has a nice racing weight while Ferdy Murphy's New Alco is very talented but has been off the track a long time - his target is next month's Grand National. The tentative suggestion for those who can't resist is Character Building each-way.
This year's Champion Hurdle looks wide open - a case can be made for the majority of the twelve runners. Go Native sets the standard and will land the WBX Triple Crown (with the accompaying £1 million bonus likely to be of some interest to connections) if he wins here, having already taken the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. I'm avoiding Binocular and Solwhit as they've had an interrupted preparation and the three five-year-olds (Starluck, Zaynar and Jumbo Rio) as horses from that age bracket generally have a poor record in the race. Punjabi did this blog a favour last year at odds of 22/1 - he'll be a lot shorter tomorrow but I'm going to stick by him, with Khyber Kim a live threat. Should KK collect the spoils, I'd imagine Nicky Henderson will have mixed feelings as he used to handle that one...
In the Cross Country Chase I take Garde Champetre, ridden by Nina Carberry, to continue Enda Bolger's fine record in the race while the market tells us the finale is between Voler La Vedette and Quevega. Preference is for the former but I shall watch from the sidelines.
Before the first day, it's worth recalling - half the fun of horse racing is in the anticipation.
Good luck to one and all!
This year Dunguib will be sent off odds-on in the opener; his victory in last year's bumper was generally regarded as exceptional. Having said that, the last time he ran he didn't jump the hurdles particularly well. Those looking to oppose will have to consider Get Me Out Of Here who won the totesport Trophy in the manner of a very good horse - Oldrik, fifth in that race, franked the form with a battling second in the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday. However GMOOH returned from that race with a nasty gash in the leg and will have missed some work. I've seen the odd word for David Pipe's Dan Breen at a price but this is a race I'll watch from the sidelines. Fiulin, a son of Galileo, is an interesting runner having been bought out of Marco Botti's yard for £280,000. He won a listed race on the Flat and also beat The Betchworth Kid so quotes of 150/1 about his chances are perhaps a little unkind.
The Arkle is a tough race and one I always avoid. For those braver than me, Somersby is the selection. If you fancy Captain Cee Bee, note that only two nine-year-olds have won this since the war and only one favourite in the last decade.
There are plenty with chances in the ultra-competitive William Hill Trophy. Alan King's Bensalem has a nice racing weight while Ferdy Murphy's New Alco is very talented but has been off the track a long time - his target is next month's Grand National. The tentative suggestion for those who can't resist is Character Building each-way.
This year's Champion Hurdle looks wide open - a case can be made for the majority of the twelve runners. Go Native sets the standard and will land the WBX Triple Crown (with the accompaying £1 million bonus likely to be of some interest to connections) if he wins here, having already taken the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. I'm avoiding Binocular and Solwhit as they've had an interrupted preparation and the three five-year-olds (Starluck, Zaynar and Jumbo Rio) as horses from that age bracket generally have a poor record in the race. Punjabi did this blog a favour last year at odds of 22/1 - he'll be a lot shorter tomorrow but I'm going to stick by him, with Khyber Kim a live threat. Should KK collect the spoils, I'd imagine Nicky Henderson will have mixed feelings as he used to handle that one...
In the Cross Country Chase I take Garde Champetre, ridden by Nina Carberry, to continue Enda Bolger's fine record in the race while the market tells us the finale is between Voler La Vedette and Quevega. Preference is for the former but I shall watch from the sidelines.
Before the first day, it's worth recalling - half the fun of horse racing is in the anticipation.
Good luck to one and all!
Sunday, March 14, 2010
On the eve of the Festival...
... here's an eclectic mix of facts and figures in an attempt to whet your appetite.
Media talk is of the 'big four' - Kauto Star (Gold Cup), Big Buck's (World Hurdle), Master Minded (Champion Chase), Dunguib (Supreme Novices' Hurdle) - and they're all likely to start at evens or shorter. Several layers appear keen to win their money early, targetting Dunguib in the opening race on the first day. I'm a fan, having seen his exceptional win in last year's bumper, but I won't get involved here. Last time out Dunguib's jumping was far from fluent and here's another negative - over the past decade 23 seven-year-olds have contested the race but only one has won - Captain Cee Bee in 2008.
Tony McCoy put up Captain Cee Bee in the Arkle as his best chance this year but only two nine-year-olds have won the race since the war, the most recent being Danish Flight in 1988. The Arkle also happens to be a poor race for favourites with just one obliging in the last ten years.
Ruby Walsh has the pick from the powerful yards of Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls; he has committed early to Blackstairmountain (Supreme) and Quel Esprit (Neptune). I remember Mick Fitzgerald once describing Ruby as someone 'who plays his cards close to his chest'. He certainly made the right choices last year as he came away leading rider with seven winners.
Nine of the last ten Champion hurdlers have previously won at Cheltenham which may be something of a concern to fans of Solwhit. Five-year-olds don't have a good record in the Champion; the three entries from that age bracket this year are Starluck, Zaynar and Jumbo Rio. Of course Katchit was the exception when he claimed the spoils in 2008.
Trainer Enda Bolger and owner JP McManus have won four of the five runnings of the Cross Country Chase.
Dermot Weld trains Rite Of Passage, the current favourite for the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, but the handler has just one winner at this meeting to his name and that occured twenty years ago.
Those who fancy Long Run should note that only two five-year-olds have taken the RSA Chase since 1950; having said that, the favourite has won the last three renewals.
Master Minded attempts to become only the second horse to win three consecutive Queen Mother Champion Chases - Badsworth Boy was the first to achieve the feat (1983-1985).
I was considering Pettifour for Wednesday's four mile National Hunt Chase. @jpfestival visited the Twiston-Davies yard last week and asked assistant trainer Carl Llewellyn about that one's chances. The word is he'll stay every yard of the trip but they have reservations about his jumping. This race has thrown up some big-priced winners in the last ten years - one at 40/1, two at 33/1 and one at 25/1.
It's no surprise Wednesday's Coral Cup is sponsored by a bookmaker as it usually has the look of a bookmakers' benefit. Five-year-olds have a poor record - the stats point to a six or seven-year-old carrying under eleven stones. Five of the last eight winners have run in Newbury's totesport Trophy.
Many think Big Buck's bombproof in Thursday's World Hurdle; favourites have won only three of the last ten runnings. Trainer Paul Nicholls is on record as saying he considers Tidal Bay the biggest threat to his horse.
The market has proved a reliable guide to the Ryanair Chase with all five winners coming from the top three in the betting.
It's Paul Nicholls' Kauto Star for me (and plenty of others) in the Gold Cup. According to the handler Imperial Commander is the horse that could take the trophy away from his yard.
That's it for now; I'll try to post selections on a daily basis throughout the Festival. In the meantime, good luck to one and all at the greatest jump meeting in the world.
Media talk is of the 'big four' - Kauto Star (Gold Cup), Big Buck's (World Hurdle), Master Minded (Champion Chase), Dunguib (Supreme Novices' Hurdle) - and they're all likely to start at evens or shorter. Several layers appear keen to win their money early, targetting Dunguib in the opening race on the first day. I'm a fan, having seen his exceptional win in last year's bumper, but I won't get involved here. Last time out Dunguib's jumping was far from fluent and here's another negative - over the past decade 23 seven-year-olds have contested the race but only one has won - Captain Cee Bee in 2008.
Tony McCoy put up Captain Cee Bee in the Arkle as his best chance this year but only two nine-year-olds have won the race since the war, the most recent being Danish Flight in 1988. The Arkle also happens to be a poor race for favourites with just one obliging in the last ten years.
Ruby Walsh has the pick from the powerful yards of Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls; he has committed early to Blackstairmountain (Supreme) and Quel Esprit (Neptune). I remember Mick Fitzgerald once describing Ruby as someone 'who plays his cards close to his chest'. He certainly made the right choices last year as he came away leading rider with seven winners.
Nine of the last ten Champion hurdlers have previously won at Cheltenham which may be something of a concern to fans of Solwhit. Five-year-olds don't have a good record in the Champion; the three entries from that age bracket this year are Starluck, Zaynar and Jumbo Rio. Of course Katchit was the exception when he claimed the spoils in 2008.
Trainer Enda Bolger and owner JP McManus have won four of the five runnings of the Cross Country Chase.
Dermot Weld trains Rite Of Passage, the current favourite for the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, but the handler has just one winner at this meeting to his name and that occured twenty years ago.
Those who fancy Long Run should note that only two five-year-olds have taken the RSA Chase since 1950; having said that, the favourite has won the last three renewals.
Master Minded attempts to become only the second horse to win three consecutive Queen Mother Champion Chases - Badsworth Boy was the first to achieve the feat (1983-1985).
I was considering Pettifour for Wednesday's four mile National Hunt Chase. @jpfestival visited the Twiston-Davies yard last week and asked assistant trainer Carl Llewellyn about that one's chances. The word is he'll stay every yard of the trip but they have reservations about his jumping. This race has thrown up some big-priced winners in the last ten years - one at 40/1, two at 33/1 and one at 25/1.
It's no surprise Wednesday's Coral Cup is sponsored by a bookmaker as it usually has the look of a bookmakers' benefit. Five-year-olds have a poor record - the stats point to a six or seven-year-old carrying under eleven stones. Five of the last eight winners have run in Newbury's totesport Trophy.
Many think Big Buck's bombproof in Thursday's World Hurdle; favourites have won only three of the last ten runnings. Trainer Paul Nicholls is on record as saying he considers Tidal Bay the biggest threat to his horse.
The market has proved a reliable guide to the Ryanair Chase with all five winners coming from the top three in the betting.
It's Paul Nicholls' Kauto Star for me (and plenty of others) in the Gold Cup. According to the handler Imperial Commander is the horse that could take the trophy away from his yard.
That's it for now; I'll try to post selections on a daily basis throughout the Festival. In the meantime, good luck to one and all at the greatest jump meeting in the world.
Friday, March 12, 2010
The Saturday before the Festival...
I always try to treat the Saturday before the Festival as a time for quiet reflection - the calm before the storm; essentially it's a time to keep your powder dry. Sandown's feature tomorrow is the fiercely competitive Imperial Cup in which 24 are set to face the starter. This year, noticeably, there's not one runner from the Pipe yard. Over the past decade, suprisingly for such a competitive race, the favourite has won on five occasions. During the same time period the winner has carried less than eleven stones on eight occasions while novices have a very good record - four and five years olds have won six renewals. One I have a liking for is Tocca Ferro; I've used this Emma Lavelle quote about her charge in the past... 'We like him... There are certain horses you get that give you that extra special feeling and he would be one of those... I'm dreaming about collecting a big trophy with him.' I wonder if the Imperial Cup is the big trophy Ms Lavelle has been dreaming about... I'll probably take a small each-way interest, watch the race and then turn my attention to next week's jamboree.
Sunday, March 07, 2010
Weekend observations
Big Fella Thanks shot to the top of the Grand National ante-post market following his impressive win at Newbury yesterday; this evening most firms go 10/1 for next month's showpiece but both Stan James and Paddy Power quote 8/1.
Staying with yesterday's meet at Newbury, Tony McCoy and Paddy Brennan fought out the finish to the Veterans' Chase, McCoy taking the spoils on 9/1 shot Eric's Charm; last week the same two jocks were involved in a tight finish to the Racing Post Chase, Brennan coming out on top in that duel aboard Razor Royale. I really thought Brennan had this one in the bag as his mount Knowhere jumped the last marginally better than his rival and looked to take it up on the run to the line. However, after a couple of slaps with the stick, the horse veered out left and then had to be brought back right to avoid the running rail as the line approached; this manoeuvre resulted in the horse losing both momentum and vital ground while McCoy steered the straight course to victory. I was left with the feeling Brennan had been mugged on this occasion...
These days trying to purchase a copy of Raceform Update's Cheltenham Festival Guide from a local newsagent is as difficult as backing a 10/1 winner. I went to pay for mine yesterday and the guy behind the counter commented, 'They've all been after that this morning!' I'm not surprised - his was the only shop in Coventry city centre I could find selling the publication. As I started reading, the first stat to strike me may concern those who think Dunguib is banker material for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle - in the last decade 23 seven-year-olds have tried to win the race but only one has been successful - Captain Cee Bee in 2008. Following on from that, Captain Cee Bee, now a nine-year-old, is 7/2 favourite for the Arkle with most firms - only two horses from that age bracket have won that race since the war.
Two racing programmes to note in the coming week...
Thursday BBC4 21:00 Storyville - Race Horses.
This film follows three horses from Paul Nolan's Wexford stable over a racing year. David Charter (The Times) describes the programme as 'horse heaven'.
Friday Radio4 11:00 Racing Ahead.
Chris Ledgard looks at the problems facing the racing industry as the TV market shrinks and bookmakers look to exploit other avenues.
Betfred have been quick to pick up on last week's story of the unfortunate punter who ate his winning lottery ticket when he realised Ryanair staff couldn't pay him 10,000 euros mid-flight. Spotted in a Fred Done shop window - Goat eats winning football ticket but Fred pays up without a bleat!
The backdrop to this Saturday's Morning Line looked like something you'd come across in a residential care home for the elderly. In that vein, Lesley Graham had something of a 'senior moment' when she referred to that well known jockey Ruby McCoy. Apparently his friend and weighing room colleague Tony Walsh was none too pleased when he heard of Graham's gaffe.
Finally, this is what happens when sports stars stop playing sport and start singing instead... The Cheltenham Charity song is released tomorrow, money raised going to four racing charities. If Petula Clark isn't really your kind of thing and you prefer something a little more raunchy, then take a peek at Rafael Nadal's performance with Shakira in Gypsy. No sign of any trouble with the knees there, Mr Nadal...
Staying with yesterday's meet at Newbury, Tony McCoy and Paddy Brennan fought out the finish to the Veterans' Chase, McCoy taking the spoils on 9/1 shot Eric's Charm; last week the same two jocks were involved in a tight finish to the Racing Post Chase, Brennan coming out on top in that duel aboard Razor Royale. I really thought Brennan had this one in the bag as his mount Knowhere jumped the last marginally better than his rival and looked to take it up on the run to the line. However, after a couple of slaps with the stick, the horse veered out left and then had to be brought back right to avoid the running rail as the line approached; this manoeuvre resulted in the horse losing both momentum and vital ground while McCoy steered the straight course to victory. I was left with the feeling Brennan had been mugged on this occasion...
These days trying to purchase a copy of Raceform Update's Cheltenham Festival Guide from a local newsagent is as difficult as backing a 10/1 winner. I went to pay for mine yesterday and the guy behind the counter commented, 'They've all been after that this morning!' I'm not surprised - his was the only shop in Coventry city centre I could find selling the publication. As I started reading, the first stat to strike me may concern those who think Dunguib is banker material for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle - in the last decade 23 seven-year-olds have tried to win the race but only one has been successful - Captain Cee Bee in 2008. Following on from that, Captain Cee Bee, now a nine-year-old, is 7/2 favourite for the Arkle with most firms - only two horses from that age bracket have won that race since the war.
Two racing programmes to note in the coming week...
Thursday BBC4 21:00 Storyville - Race Horses.
This film follows three horses from Paul Nolan's Wexford stable over a racing year. David Charter (The Times) describes the programme as 'horse heaven'.
Friday Radio4 11:00 Racing Ahead.
Chris Ledgard looks at the problems facing the racing industry as the TV market shrinks and bookmakers look to exploit other avenues.
Betfred have been quick to pick up on last week's story of the unfortunate punter who ate his winning lottery ticket when he realised Ryanair staff couldn't pay him 10,000 euros mid-flight. Spotted in a Fred Done shop window - Goat eats winning football ticket but Fred pays up without a bleat!
The backdrop to this Saturday's Morning Line looked like something you'd come across in a residential care home for the elderly. In that vein, Lesley Graham had something of a 'senior moment' when she referred to that well known jockey Ruby McCoy. Apparently his friend and weighing room colleague Tony Walsh was none too pleased when he heard of Graham's gaffe.
Finally, this is what happens when sports stars stop playing sport and start singing instead... The Cheltenham Charity song is released tomorrow, money raised going to four racing charities. If Petula Clark isn't really your kind of thing and you prefer something a little more raunchy, then take a peek at Rafael Nadal's performance with Shakira in Gypsy. No sign of any trouble with the knees there, Mr Nadal...
Friday, March 05, 2010
Doncaster's Grimthorpe Chase
The penultimate Saturday before Cheltenham and everyone seems to have half an eye on the Festival races... This afternoon trainer Nicky Henderson confirmed that former RSA favourite Punchestowns has a problem with his near-fore - stable companion Long Run now heads that market, priced up at just 2/1 by both totepsort and Ladbrokes. In a separate development Binocular, having been ruled out of the Champion Hurdle a couple of weeks ago with a muscle problem, may now take his chance - his participation depends on a workout next week.
The going at Doncaster tomorrow is described as good, good to soft in places - the first piece of decent ground we've seen for a while.
The feature is the highly-competitive three and a quarter mile Grimthorpe Chase for which fifteen have been declared; many of the field, including former National winner Comply Or Die and Aintree regular Cloudy Lane, will see the race as a trial for this year's four and a half mile marathon in April. Henry Daly's Possol could well start favourite as he's likely to appreciate the better ground but he has his fair share of weight; in addition, favourites have a miserable record in this - no wins in the past seven renewals. Rather than turn out here connections of the progressive Sa Suffit have opted to go to Kelso for the Premier Chase (which could be considered a tip in itself, although I note the gelding hasn't won beyond two and a half miles). Two that would be a danger if returning to form are Charlie Mann's Air Force One and Howard Johnson's Killyglen while Gidam Gidam's victory here last time over four miles would suggest that one needs a real test of stamina - the drying ground may not suit. For me Coe has disappointed once too often in recent weeks but at the bottom end of the handicap former Eider winner Merigo is worth a second look - he finished second in a hurdle race at Warwick three weeks ago but was disqualified as jockey Dougie Costello failed to draw the correct weight. Wogan doesn't have many miles on the clock but former Scottish National winner Iris De Balme will need to build on a reasonable return over hurdles after a long spell on the sidelines. The market has proved a decent guide in the past with the winner starting second, third or fourth favourite on six occasions in the last seven runnings - of the top four Iris De Balme makes most appeal at around 10/1 and looks worth an each-way interest but my money will be on Merigo at odds of 12/1 or bigger.
The going at Doncaster tomorrow is described as good, good to soft in places - the first piece of decent ground we've seen for a while.
The feature is the highly-competitive three and a quarter mile Grimthorpe Chase for which fifteen have been declared; many of the field, including former National winner Comply Or Die and Aintree regular Cloudy Lane, will see the race as a trial for this year's four and a half mile marathon in April. Henry Daly's Possol could well start favourite as he's likely to appreciate the better ground but he has his fair share of weight; in addition, favourites have a miserable record in this - no wins in the past seven renewals. Rather than turn out here connections of the progressive Sa Suffit have opted to go to Kelso for the Premier Chase (which could be considered a tip in itself, although I note the gelding hasn't won beyond two and a half miles). Two that would be a danger if returning to form are Charlie Mann's Air Force One and Howard Johnson's Killyglen while Gidam Gidam's victory here last time over four miles would suggest that one needs a real test of stamina - the drying ground may not suit. For me Coe has disappointed once too often in recent weeks but at the bottom end of the handicap former Eider winner Merigo is worth a second look - he finished second in a hurdle race at Warwick three weeks ago but was disqualified as jockey Dougie Costello failed to draw the correct weight. Wogan doesn't have many miles on the clock but former Scottish National winner Iris De Balme will need to build on a reasonable return over hurdles after a long spell on the sidelines. The market has proved a decent guide in the past with the winner starting second, third or fourth favourite on six occasions in the last seven runnings - of the top four Iris De Balme makes most appeal at around 10/1 and looks worth an each-way interest but my money will be on Merigo at odds of 12/1 or bigger.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Doc Martin, Andy Murray, Choc Thornton, Avram Grant and the man who ate his winning lottery ticket...
There was plenty of action at Fontwell this afternoon... First time blinkers appeared to rekindle Trenchant's appetite as Alan King's charge won the Grade Two National Spirit Hurdle while Martin Clunes, star of Men Behaving Badly and Doc Martin, was hoping Buffalo Stampede, the horse owned by his TV company, would prove a star in the making - unfortunately the beast hadn't read the script and trailed in last of the seven finishers.
The Times reported recently that tennis ace Andy Murray had his first taste of the races and was suitably impressed. Mind you, it was at Dubai's Meydan racecourse and is a world away from a Monday afternoon card at Plumpton in the middle of winter...
A couple of Festival titbits - Robert 'Choc' Thornton appears to have picked up two decent spare rides in Somersby (Arkle) and Twist Magic (Champion Chase). The Weekender reports that Choc was approached about Twist Magic last week - a decision was made after Oh Crick finished a well-beaten fourth in Ascot's Betfair Chase. Oh Crick will now go either for the Champion or the Grand Annual; if connections take the former option, Wayne Hutchinson will ride. I'm sure Choc won't need me to remind him that last year Twist Magic dumped pilot Sam Thomas on the turf right in front of the stands as they went to post. Nigel Twiston-Davies' Imperial Commander worked with a stablemate after racing at Kempton on Saturday and is reportedly in good health and on track for the Gold Cup.
100 days to the World Cup in South Africa and people are starting to talk about football's financial crisis. Following their coverage of the Manchester United v. Aston Villa Carling Cup final this afternoon, the BBC ran a trailer for a Radio 5 Live progamme Business Of Sport which will discuss the issue on Tuesday evening at 20:00. I suspect much of this has been brought about by Portsmouth becoming the first Premier League side to go into administration - manager Avram Grant considers the League's nine point deduction unfair. Now I have every sympathy with this view but such events are a common occurence lower down the footballing hierarchy and have been for some time. Contrast Portsmouth's situation with that of Chester City who were expelled from the Blue Square Premiership on Friday morning following a meeting at Rushden. Chester started the season on -25 points and were still in negative territory when they played their last game; the club is now up for sale for just £1. The men with the money - what have they gone and done to the beautiful game?
Finally, you would be tempted to place a headline 'Man Eats Winning Lottery Ticket' in the same bracket as 'Routemaster Discovered On The Moon' or 'Politician Tells The Truth'. On Friday a passenger travelling from Krakov in Poland to East Midlands Airport with Ryanair won 10,000 euros (roughly £8,930) on a scratchcard. When he was informed there wasn't enough cash on board to pay him immediately, he became agitated and promptly ate the winning ticket, thereby forfeiting any chance of collecting his prize. Understandably, the man wishes to remain anonymous...
The Times reported recently that tennis ace Andy Murray had his first taste of the races and was suitably impressed. Mind you, it was at Dubai's Meydan racecourse and is a world away from a Monday afternoon card at Plumpton in the middle of winter...
A couple of Festival titbits - Robert 'Choc' Thornton appears to have picked up two decent spare rides in Somersby (Arkle) and Twist Magic (Champion Chase). The Weekender reports that Choc was approached about Twist Magic last week - a decision was made after Oh Crick finished a well-beaten fourth in Ascot's Betfair Chase. Oh Crick will now go either for the Champion or the Grand Annual; if connections take the former option, Wayne Hutchinson will ride. I'm sure Choc won't need me to remind him that last year Twist Magic dumped pilot Sam Thomas on the turf right in front of the stands as they went to post. Nigel Twiston-Davies' Imperial Commander worked with a stablemate after racing at Kempton on Saturday and is reportedly in good health and on track for the Gold Cup.
100 days to the World Cup in South Africa and people are starting to talk about football's financial crisis. Following their coverage of the Manchester United v. Aston Villa Carling Cup final this afternoon, the BBC ran a trailer for a Radio 5 Live progamme Business Of Sport which will discuss the issue on Tuesday evening at 20:00. I suspect much of this has been brought about by Portsmouth becoming the first Premier League side to go into administration - manager Avram Grant considers the League's nine point deduction unfair. Now I have every sympathy with this view but such events are a common occurence lower down the footballing hierarchy and have been for some time. Contrast Portsmouth's situation with that of Chester City who were expelled from the Blue Square Premiership on Friday morning following a meeting at Rushden. Chester started the season on -25 points and were still in negative territory when they played their last game; the club is now up for sale for just £1. The men with the money - what have they gone and done to the beautiful game?
Finally, you would be tempted to place a headline 'Man Eats Winning Lottery Ticket' in the same bracket as 'Routemaster Discovered On The Moon' or 'Politician Tells The Truth'. On Friday a passenger travelling from Krakov in Poland to East Midlands Airport with Ryanair won 10,000 euros (roughly £8,930) on a scratchcard. When he was informed there wasn't enough cash on board to pay him immediately, he became agitated and promptly ate the winning ticket, thereby forfeiting any chance of collecting his prize. Understandably, the man wishes to remain anonymous...
Friday, February 26, 2010
Racing Post Chase day at Kempton
I had this surefire winner lined up for the Eider at Newcastle and then the weather went and intervened. Honest.
Fourteen go in tomorrow's feature at Kempton, The Racing Post Chase, which is due off at 3.05. Tanya Stevenson posted a tweet earlier today pointing out that nine of the past ten winners carried over ten stones twelve to victory; that particular stat narrrows the field down to just three - Madison Du Berlais, Nacarat and Ollie Magern. This track suits Madison who will sport blinkers for the first time; the concern is that the Pipe yard has had just one winner form thirty two runners in the past fortnight. Ollie Magern is priced up at 50/1 which leaves previous winner Nacarat, 7/2 favourite at the time of writing, the most likely winner. I'm not particularly tempted at that price. Of the others it's worth noting Ruby Walsh has said he doesn't intend to put up any overweight on Fistral Beach while it will be interesting to see how Atouchbetweenacara runs having left Venetia Williams stable only to return after one disappointing run for Tim Vaughan in the Boylesports.com Gold Cup at Cheltenham last December.
Champion hurdle hope Punjabi faces five opponents in the opener; two of his rivals have been off the track for more than a year while Spider Boy had his thirteenth birthday on January 1st. Nicky Henderson will be pleased to get this run into his charge before the Festival - I, along with plenty of others, shall look for clues as to whether stable jockey Barry Geraghty will opt to ride Punjabi over Zaynar in the Champion Hurdle.
The tissue has The Nightingale at long odds on in the Pendil; I'm tempted to take a chance on Tom George's Othermix at a price. His record doesn't read very well but he's highly regarded at home.
Alan King thinks Triumph Hurdle favourite Mille Chief is right out of the top drawer. If he runs in the Adonis tomorrow he'll be long odds on but there's a rumour he picked up a knock earlier today and may be doubtful. On official ratings Mille Chief is only two pounds better than Ultimate so that one should be thereabouts with a three pound pull at the weights. Ultimate can prove a useful yardstick here as he was beaten six lengths in receipt of three pound by Carlito Brigante (7/1 for the Triumph) at Musselburgh the last time.
Finally a quick word for the fabulously-named The Giant Bolster who is declared in the opener at Fontwell on Sunday; he'll be worth a second look. This one did us an each-way favour at 25/1 the last time, beaten six lengths by Nicky Henderson's Peveril. Peveril has gone in again earlier today at Warwick and it's worth noting that The Giant Bolster holds entries in the Neptune, the Coral Cup, the Albert Bartlett and the Martin Pipe Hurdle at the Festival.
Fourteen go in tomorrow's feature at Kempton, The Racing Post Chase, which is due off at 3.05. Tanya Stevenson posted a tweet earlier today pointing out that nine of the past ten winners carried over ten stones twelve to victory; that particular stat narrrows the field down to just three - Madison Du Berlais, Nacarat and Ollie Magern. This track suits Madison who will sport blinkers for the first time; the concern is that the Pipe yard has had just one winner form thirty two runners in the past fortnight. Ollie Magern is priced up at 50/1 which leaves previous winner Nacarat, 7/2 favourite at the time of writing, the most likely winner. I'm not particularly tempted at that price. Of the others it's worth noting Ruby Walsh has said he doesn't intend to put up any overweight on Fistral Beach while it will be interesting to see how Atouchbetweenacara runs having left Venetia Williams stable only to return after one disappointing run for Tim Vaughan in the Boylesports.com Gold Cup at Cheltenham last December.
Champion hurdle hope Punjabi faces five opponents in the opener; two of his rivals have been off the track for more than a year while Spider Boy had his thirteenth birthday on January 1st. Nicky Henderson will be pleased to get this run into his charge before the Festival - I, along with plenty of others, shall look for clues as to whether stable jockey Barry Geraghty will opt to ride Punjabi over Zaynar in the Champion Hurdle.
The tissue has The Nightingale at long odds on in the Pendil; I'm tempted to take a chance on Tom George's Othermix at a price. His record doesn't read very well but he's highly regarded at home.
Alan King thinks Triumph Hurdle favourite Mille Chief is right out of the top drawer. If he runs in the Adonis tomorrow he'll be long odds on but there's a rumour he picked up a knock earlier today and may be doubtful. On official ratings Mille Chief is only two pounds better than Ultimate so that one should be thereabouts with a three pound pull at the weights. Ultimate can prove a useful yardstick here as he was beaten six lengths in receipt of three pound by Carlito Brigante (7/1 for the Triumph) at Musselburgh the last time.
Finally a quick word for the fabulously-named The Giant Bolster who is declared in the opener at Fontwell on Sunday; he'll be worth a second look. This one did us an each-way favour at 25/1 the last time, beaten six lengths by Nicky Henderson's Peveril. Peveril has gone in again earlier today at Warwick and it's worth noting that The Giant Bolster holds entries in the Neptune, the Coral Cup, the Albert Bartlett and the Martin Pipe Hurdle at the Festival.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Sunday snippets
Following Denman's defeat last weekend, champion jockey AP McCoy came in for some unjustified criticism from certain quarters after being unceremoniously dumped on the Newbury turf. Alan Lee penned a piece in Tuesday's Times defending the champ while yesterday Harry Findlay, joint owner of Denman, was at pains to point out to the TV cameras that the bookies currently have Denman priced correctly for next month's showpiece; in this week's Weekender paddock judge Ken Pitterson also observed Denman was carrying condition. Nonetheless the casual observer who watches a bit of TV racing on a Saturday afternoon will be left with the distinct impression that these days it's Ruby Walsh who is riding the big race winners. Two articles in the weekend's papers aim to redress the balance - David Walsh conducts an in depth interview with McCoy in today's Sunday Times while Tony shared the secrets of his success with readers of yesterday's Daily Mail.
The loss of Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle card on Saturday has left Nicky Henderson with a headache as he tries to get another run into Punjabi before the Festival. The trainer is now pinning his hopes on the addition of a two mile hurdle race to Saturday's Kempton card - a decision will be made tomorrow. If that plan falls through, I guess a racecourse gallop will be on the cards for the current champion hurdler who is known to be quite a stuffy horse.
Me Voici (11/10f) looked the part when taking the Victor Ludorum at Haydock yesterday; bookmakers offer 25/1 about the winner for the Triumph but connections indicated they may miss the race. It's worth noting that in this race Venetia Williams' Stars Du Granits opened 100/30 on course, was backed in to 2/1 second favourite but got no further than the second flight. Similarly Monsieur Jourdain (25/1) threw away any chance he had with a terrible jump when in the lead four from home.
Following the death of former jockey and writer Dick Francis last Sunday, I was surprised by the number of people who came up to me and said they hadn't realised he was on board when The Queen Mother's Devon Loch famously 'did the splits' within sight of the winning post in the 1956 Grand National. There have been several tributes to the great man - I favoured this obituary in Monday's Daily Telegraph.
Finally to finish with... The Festival is a little over three weeks away - get yourself in the mood with this behind-the-scenes look at the the making of the Cheltenham Charity Song.
The loss of Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle card on Saturday has left Nicky Henderson with a headache as he tries to get another run into Punjabi before the Festival. The trainer is now pinning his hopes on the addition of a two mile hurdle race to Saturday's Kempton card - a decision will be made tomorrow. If that plan falls through, I guess a racecourse gallop will be on the cards for the current champion hurdler who is known to be quite a stuffy horse.
Me Voici (11/10f) looked the part when taking the Victor Ludorum at Haydock yesterday; bookmakers offer 25/1 about the winner for the Triumph but connections indicated they may miss the race. It's worth noting that in this race Venetia Williams' Stars Du Granits opened 100/30 on course, was backed in to 2/1 second favourite but got no further than the second flight. Similarly Monsieur Jourdain (25/1) threw away any chance he had with a terrible jump when in the lead four from home.
Following the death of former jockey and writer Dick Francis last Sunday, I was surprised by the number of people who came up to me and said they hadn't realised he was on board when The Queen Mother's Devon Loch famously 'did the splits' within sight of the winning post in the 1956 Grand National. There have been several tributes to the great man - I favoured this obituary in Monday's Daily Telegraph.
Finally to finish with... The Festival is a little over three weeks away - get yourself in the mood with this behind-the-scenes look at the the making of the Cheltenham Charity Song.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Saturday digest
With overnight temperatures forecast to go down to minus three, inspections are scheduled for all tomorrow's turf cards; the covers are in place at Ascot but clerk of the course Chris Stickels doesn't envisage any problems.
Nicky Henderson has probably had better weeks with Binocular being scratched from the Champion Hurdle entries on Wednesday and Zaynar being turned over at odds of 1/14 at Kelso on Thursday. Normal service was resumed today with Oscar Whisky's easy victory in the Kylmar Novices' Hurdle - that one now goes for the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham next month; William Hill bet 16/1. The trainer will be hoping to start tomorrow's proceedings with a short-priced double courtesy of Finian's Rainbow in the opener and Burton Port in the next, the Reynoldstown Novices' Chase.
Only six go in the Betfair Ascot Chase but it's still very competitive. Several of these are closely matched - on official ratings Philip Hobbs' Planet Of Sound is the one to beat; he hasn't raced this far previously and jumping proved his undoing here the last time when one bad mistake handed the initiative to Albertas Run. Herecomesthetruth has a mind of his own and seven pounds to find with the Hobbs horse but Paul Nicholls clearly expects a big run in a race that has been the target for some time. The other one I'd consider is Alan King's Oh Crick. He was beaten by Planet Of Sound in the Haldon Cup on his seasonal debut (with the yard stuggling to find form) but made eye-catching progress the last time when staying on into third behind Twist Magic in the Victor Chandler. The extra distance here should suit - the 8/1 on offer this evening from totesport is tempting. However I'm going to side with Herecomesthtruth who is 3/1 with most layers at the moment.
Menorah, currently 8/1 second favourite behind Dunguib for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, will be short odds to take the 3.45
If the Haydock card gets the green light, the Blue Square Gold Cup will be the highlight run over three and a half miles on ground described as heavy. Several of these met in the Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas; that day Dream Alliance collected the spoils although he was very nearly reeled in by the fast-finishing Silver By Nature. That one reopposes here on two pounds better terms for threequarters of a length beating - there shouldn't be much in it at the line. The form of Lucinda Rusell's stable (one win from twenty runs in the past fortnight) is a concern. Le Beau Bai is on the small side for a chaser but may well take to this tight track while Coe has a decent record here over jumps - two wins and three placings from six runs. Last year's National winner Mon Mome has his share of weight as you'd expect but he's made steady progress through the season - Venetia Williams' yard is in better form now - at around 12/1 I'll have an each-way bet.
There are some interesting contenders in the 2.30. Bouggler ran well for a long way when beaten by Tidal Bay at Cheltenham the last time but I note that stable jockey Jack Doyle is on Pause And Clause here. Souffleur's fourth behind Mamlook at Ascot looks good given the winner that day ran fourth in the totesport Trophy at Newbury a week ago; that's the first piece of form Souffleur has shown for some time - I'll take an each-way interest at around 10/1 provided eight go to post.
Wincanton is a speed track - Punjabi is worth taking on with Starluck (6/4) in the Kingwell Hurdle (3.50). Henderson is on record as saying that although the champion is straighter than this time last year, the heavy ground will not suit.
Nicky Henderson has probably had better weeks with Binocular being scratched from the Champion Hurdle entries on Wednesday and Zaynar being turned over at odds of 1/14 at Kelso on Thursday. Normal service was resumed today with Oscar Whisky's easy victory in the Kylmar Novices' Hurdle - that one now goes for the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham next month; William Hill bet 16/1. The trainer will be hoping to start tomorrow's proceedings with a short-priced double courtesy of Finian's Rainbow in the opener and Burton Port in the next, the Reynoldstown Novices' Chase.
Only six go in the Betfair Ascot Chase but it's still very competitive. Several of these are closely matched - on official ratings Philip Hobbs' Planet Of Sound is the one to beat; he hasn't raced this far previously and jumping proved his undoing here the last time when one bad mistake handed the initiative to Albertas Run. Herecomesthetruth has a mind of his own and seven pounds to find with the Hobbs horse but Paul Nicholls clearly expects a big run in a race that has been the target for some time. The other one I'd consider is Alan King's Oh Crick. He was beaten by Planet Of Sound in the Haldon Cup on his seasonal debut (with the yard stuggling to find form) but made eye-catching progress the last time when staying on into third behind Twist Magic in the Victor Chandler. The extra distance here should suit - the 8/1 on offer this evening from totesport is tempting. However I'm going to side with Herecomesthtruth who is 3/1 with most layers at the moment.
Menorah, currently 8/1 second favourite behind Dunguib for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, will be short odds to take the 3.45
If the Haydock card gets the green light, the Blue Square Gold Cup will be the highlight run over three and a half miles on ground described as heavy. Several of these met in the Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas; that day Dream Alliance collected the spoils although he was very nearly reeled in by the fast-finishing Silver By Nature. That one reopposes here on two pounds better terms for threequarters of a length beating - there shouldn't be much in it at the line. The form of Lucinda Rusell's stable (one win from twenty runs in the past fortnight) is a concern. Le Beau Bai is on the small side for a chaser but may well take to this tight track while Coe has a decent record here over jumps - two wins and three placings from six runs. Last year's National winner Mon Mome has his share of weight as you'd expect but he's made steady progress through the season - Venetia Williams' yard is in better form now - at around 12/1 I'll have an each-way bet.
There are some interesting contenders in the 2.30. Bouggler ran well for a long way when beaten by Tidal Bay at Cheltenham the last time but I note that stable jockey Jack Doyle is on Pause And Clause here. Souffleur's fourth behind Mamlook at Ascot looks good given the winner that day ran fourth in the totesport Trophy at Newbury a week ago; that's the first piece of form Souffleur has shown for some time - I'll take an each-way interest at around 10/1 provided eight go to post.
Wincanton is a speed track - Punjabi is worth taking on with Starluck (6/4) in the Kingwell Hurdle (3.50). Henderson is on record as saying that although the champion is straighter than this time last year, the heavy ground will not suit.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
One small Valentine's Day massacre
I was cold-called by a computer software salesman on Friday morning.
Standard salesman practice dictates that, in the first instance, you should engage the potential customer in trivial anodyne conversation, thereby ensuring some form of engagement, before moving on to the business in hand, often referred to as 'the kill'. This salesman's opening gambit was along the lines of 'Doing anything nice for Valentine's Day?' That gave me the best belly laugh I've had this year.
The salesman, let's call him John, even though his real name was Pete, started to swap Valentine's Day notes with me, you know, the sort of you-can't-do-right-for-doing-wrong stuff; of course, I could only empathise. John told me that as he was about to walk out of the house yesterday morning, he heard his partner's voice coming from the bathroom - 'Think on!' she had cried. Just that and nothing else. Think on? What's that supposed to mean? You're immediately transported to that awkward bloke sort of situation from which there's no escape. You want to do the right thing but you're doomed; you may have had your own ideas but all of a sudden you're riddled with doubt - you don't know what to do for the best.
This year, unusually, I was ahead of myself and had managed to procure a reasonable card and thought of a gift all on my own for the first time in over twenty years. So, feeling confident, whilst supping a glass of wine on the Friday evening I told Mrs Tips the salesman story. Next day in town Mrs T spots something, comes up to me and says in that knowing way of hers... 'Think on!'
Needless to say, I did 'a Denman' and messed up, big time. And as if all that wasn't bad enough, Mrs T had told me on Saturday morning that Tricky Trickster was gong to win the Aon 'because it's a good name and I like Ruby Walsh'.
Still, it's a bit too early to totally write off Denman just yet...
Standard salesman practice dictates that, in the first instance, you should engage the potential customer in trivial anodyne conversation, thereby ensuring some form of engagement, before moving on to the business in hand, often referred to as 'the kill'. This salesman's opening gambit was along the lines of 'Doing anything nice for Valentine's Day?' That gave me the best belly laugh I've had this year.
The salesman, let's call him John, even though his real name was Pete, started to swap Valentine's Day notes with me, you know, the sort of you-can't-do-right-for-doing-wrong stuff; of course, I could only empathise. John told me that as he was about to walk out of the house yesterday morning, he heard his partner's voice coming from the bathroom - 'Think on!' she had cried. Just that and nothing else. Think on? What's that supposed to mean? You're immediately transported to that awkward bloke sort of situation from which there's no escape. You want to do the right thing but you're doomed; you may have had your own ideas but all of a sudden you're riddled with doubt - you don't know what to do for the best.
This year, unusually, I was ahead of myself and had managed to procure a reasonable card and thought of a gift all on my own for the first time in over twenty years. So, feeling confident, whilst supping a glass of wine on the Friday evening I told Mrs Tips the salesman story. Next day in town Mrs T spots something, comes up to me and says in that knowing way of hers... 'Think on!'
Needless to say, I did 'a Denman' and messed up, big time. And as if all that wasn't bad enough, Mrs T had told me on Saturday morning that Tricky Trickster was gong to win the Aon 'because it's a good name and I like Ruby Walsh'.
Still, it's a bit too early to totally write off Denman just yet...
Friday, February 12, 2010
Newbury and Warwick
The highlights at Newbury tomorrow include Denman and A P McCoy in the Aon at 2.30 and the current champion chaser Master Minded in the Game Spirit at 3.40. I'm not inclined to oppose Denman who should win to set up the much-anticipated Gold Cup clash with Kauto Star but I wouldn't be in a rush to back Master Minded in this, his first run after an operation on a fractured rib; co-incidentally one of tomorrow's rivals is named Fix The Rib - is that some sort of omen? Earlier in the week Paul Nicholls indicated Master Minded was roughly 80% ready and the vibes coming from the yard are positive enough. Alan King's Voy Por Ustedes is another likely to come on for the run so, for those brave enough to oppose, Fix The Rib from Gary Moore's in-form stable will be of interest. This one has plenty to find on official ratings and has a preference for better going but he likes to set off in front and had a refresher on the all-weather two and a half weeks ago after a fall in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas. The market leader has won three of the last eight renewals with the second favourite obliging on the other five occasions. This evening Fix The Rib is priced up at around the 8/1 mark -I'll take a chance.
Only four in the opener but it's far from straightforward. Diamond Harry, 6/1 joint second favourite for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, was impressive at Haydock the last time, looking to have the beating of Alan King's Bensalem when that one fell heavily three out; the race is half a mile further this time. Inchidaly Rock took a soft fall at Cheltenham a fortnight ago but on official ratings looks the one likely to give the favourite most to do. A fascinating contest with Diamond Harry the percentage call but only just - at the prices on offer I won't get involved.
No bet for me in the Totesport Trophy either with twenty four set to face the starter. If you can't resist temptation, the bookmakers offering each-way a quarter the odds the first five places are bet365, Skybet, totesport, Boylesports and Paddy Power, with several of those layers also offering best price guaranteed. Of the three Pipe runners I was impressed with Mamlook at Ascot but he hasn't won off this rating previously so perhaps Ronaldo Des Mottes is the stable's main chance.
Five go in the Kingmaker at Warwick where all eyes will be on Long Run, currently the other joint second favourite for the RSA. A precocious talent, Long Run went into many notebooks when winning the Feltham at Kempton over Christmas despite throwing in some novicey leaps at the obstacles; that race was over three miles but this is over the minimum trip. A school of thought has sprung up over the past week or so that goes something like this - Long Run could win here and then go for the Arkle (instead of the RSA) at the Festival. If you subscribed to that school of thought, then you will have considered taking an interest about the horse in that race (he's currently priced 8/1) as if he wins, that price is bound to contract. Today however trainer Nicky Henderson seems to have poured cold water on the theory by saying his charge is '99% certain' to run in the RSA. Two miles at Warwick takes some jumping with both King Edmund and Take The Breeze front-runners. At the prices on offer I'll chance Take The Breeze.
Finally some interesting contestants in the competitive-looking novices' hurdle at 3.55. Kennel Hill is one to be wary of while Aidan Coleman has said he'd expect a good run from Spit. The Giant Bolster won well at Market Rasen before being somewhat outclassed behind Duke of Lucca at Newbury. He carries a penatly here for his win but has had a break and will handle the ground; I'll consider a small each-way wager at a big price.
Only four in the opener but it's far from straightforward. Diamond Harry, 6/1 joint second favourite for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, was impressive at Haydock the last time, looking to have the beating of Alan King's Bensalem when that one fell heavily three out; the race is half a mile further this time. Inchidaly Rock took a soft fall at Cheltenham a fortnight ago but on official ratings looks the one likely to give the favourite most to do. A fascinating contest with Diamond Harry the percentage call but only just - at the prices on offer I won't get involved.
No bet for me in the Totesport Trophy either with twenty four set to face the starter. If you can't resist temptation, the bookmakers offering each-way a quarter the odds the first five places are bet365, Skybet, totesport, Boylesports and Paddy Power, with several of those layers also offering best price guaranteed. Of the three Pipe runners I was impressed with Mamlook at Ascot but he hasn't won off this rating previously so perhaps Ronaldo Des Mottes is the stable's main chance.
Five go in the Kingmaker at Warwick where all eyes will be on Long Run, currently the other joint second favourite for the RSA. A precocious talent, Long Run went into many notebooks when winning the Feltham at Kempton over Christmas despite throwing in some novicey leaps at the obstacles; that race was over three miles but this is over the minimum trip. A school of thought has sprung up over the past week or so that goes something like this - Long Run could win here and then go for the Arkle (instead of the RSA) at the Festival. If you subscribed to that school of thought, then you will have considered taking an interest about the horse in that race (he's currently priced 8/1) as if he wins, that price is bound to contract. Today however trainer Nicky Henderson seems to have poured cold water on the theory by saying his charge is '99% certain' to run in the RSA. Two miles at Warwick takes some jumping with both King Edmund and Take The Breeze front-runners. At the prices on offer I'll chance Take The Breeze.
Finally some interesting contestants in the competitive-looking novices' hurdle at 3.55. Kennel Hill is one to be wary of while Aidan Coleman has said he'd expect a good run from Spit. The Giant Bolster won well at Market Rasen before being somewhat outclassed behind Duke of Lucca at Newbury. He carries a penatly here for his win but has had a break and will handle the ground; I'll consider a small each-way wager at a big price.
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Thinking about the Festival...
Earlier today at Leopardstown Joncol pipped Cooldine in a thrilling finish to the Irish Hennessy; the winner is now a 7/1 shot with totepsort for the Ryanair Chase. The runner-up delighted Willie Mullins with his effort. Last year's RSA Chase winner has been out of sorts so far this term but the handler thinks his charge will come on for the run - Cooldine is quoted at 14/1 for the Gold Cup with most layers, behind Kauto Star (5/4) and Denman (9/4).
Saturday's Racing Post confirmed that Tony McCoy will ride Denman in the Aon Chase at Newbury on Saturday and in the Gold Cup itself. Over the coming weeks we can expect plenty of hype as the media build the race into a Kauto Star / Ruby Walsh versus Denman / Tony McCoy stand-off.
The Festival is just over five weeks away. For the past ten years I've attended Champion Chase Day on the Wednesday but this year I haven't purchased my ticket... The thought of the crowds and having nowhere to sit for eight hours show I must be getting old - these days I'm just as happy with a low-key jump meeting at a gaff track. I'm sure I'll come round... There's still a long way to go but, for those interested, here's my current thinking on a selection of the races.
Supreme Novices: I saw Dunguib's exceptional win last year and have been a big fan ever since. Unsurprisingly, I'm not alone. For those looking to oppose, the ante-post favourite's hurdling was far from fluent at Leopardstown this afternoon.
Arkle Chase: A race I try to avoid. Hen Knight's Somersby would be of interest.
Champion Hurdle: As open as I can remember. Still have plenty of respect for Punjabi (overpriced at 14/1) but will wait to see if Barry Geraghty deserts the champion in favour of Zaynar. Medermit (14/1) was unlucky to be beaten a neck by Go Native (6/1) in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle and looks better value than that winner in the market. The form of Alan King's yard has been patchy this year.
RSA Chase: Punchestowns oozes class and deserves his prominent position in the market. I was more perturbed than many by Long Run's jumping at Kempton; a stat that will need to be checked - when was the last time a five-year-old won this race? Diamond Harry has limited chasing experience but Weird Al jumped well at Wetherby yesterday, collecting his third chase win on the bounce.
Champion Chase: Will watch Master Minded's return in the Game Spirit at Newbury with interest. Following Taranis' victory at Cheltenham on Janaury 30th trainer Paul Nicholls indicated that Master Minded had only recently started work again. One of the sayings often repeated around this time of year is you want an animal that has had an uninterrupted preparation for the Festival races. Might be harder to come by this time with the weather playing its part but Master Minded can hardly be said to have had an uninterrupted prep. I think the occasion will get to Twist Magic but like Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King.
Champion Bumper: A couple of weeks ago Nick Mordin, writing in the Weekender, highlighted that the RP top-rated horse has won the bumper on four occasions in the last five years. Recently Dermot Weld's Elegant Concorde has shot to the top of a market that can be fairly volatile. This time last year Willie Mullins' Sicilian Secret was widely touted but on the day drifted out to 9/1, finishing sixteenth of the twenty four runners.
World Hurdle: Despite the odd quirk, Big Buck's looks bomb-proof. Nearer the time I'll consider Karabak, Tidal Bay and Time For Rupert.
Triumph Hurdle: Often a very rough race and not one I'm particularly keen on. Will check out Carlito Brigante.
Gold Cup: Kauto Star for me - with bookies going 14/1 bar two I'll be looking for some fancy prices about an each-way longshot.
One tip for the Festival that is certain to give value for money - make sure you purchase Raceform Update's Festival Preview usually published at the beginning of March.
Finally, I couldn't sign off without a comment on the first weekend's rugby internationals. The England v. Wales game was littered with mistakes, mostly on the Welsh side, but I thought some of the BBC's camera work in that game verged on the atrocious - in particular the spider-cam coverage did nothing but detract from the action on the field.
Saturday's Racing Post confirmed that Tony McCoy will ride Denman in the Aon Chase at Newbury on Saturday and in the Gold Cup itself. Over the coming weeks we can expect plenty of hype as the media build the race into a Kauto Star / Ruby Walsh versus Denman / Tony McCoy stand-off.
The Festival is just over five weeks away. For the past ten years I've attended Champion Chase Day on the Wednesday but this year I haven't purchased my ticket... The thought of the crowds and having nowhere to sit for eight hours show I must be getting old - these days I'm just as happy with a low-key jump meeting at a gaff track. I'm sure I'll come round... There's still a long way to go but, for those interested, here's my current thinking on a selection of the races.
Supreme Novices: I saw Dunguib's exceptional win last year and have been a big fan ever since. Unsurprisingly, I'm not alone. For those looking to oppose, the ante-post favourite's hurdling was far from fluent at Leopardstown this afternoon.
Arkle Chase: A race I try to avoid. Hen Knight's Somersby would be of interest.
Champion Hurdle: As open as I can remember. Still have plenty of respect for Punjabi (overpriced at 14/1) but will wait to see if Barry Geraghty deserts the champion in favour of Zaynar. Medermit (14/1) was unlucky to be beaten a neck by Go Native (6/1) in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle and looks better value than that winner in the market. The form of Alan King's yard has been patchy this year.
RSA Chase: Punchestowns oozes class and deserves his prominent position in the market. I was more perturbed than many by Long Run's jumping at Kempton; a stat that will need to be checked - when was the last time a five-year-old won this race? Diamond Harry has limited chasing experience but Weird Al jumped well at Wetherby yesterday, collecting his third chase win on the bounce.
Champion Chase: Will watch Master Minded's return in the Game Spirit at Newbury with interest. Following Taranis' victory at Cheltenham on Janaury 30th trainer Paul Nicholls indicated that Master Minded had only recently started work again. One of the sayings often repeated around this time of year is you want an animal that has had an uninterrupted preparation for the Festival races. Might be harder to come by this time with the weather playing its part but Master Minded can hardly be said to have had an uninterrupted prep. I think the occasion will get to Twist Magic but like Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King.
Champion Bumper: A couple of weeks ago Nick Mordin, writing in the Weekender, highlighted that the RP top-rated horse has won the bumper on four occasions in the last five years. Recently Dermot Weld's Elegant Concorde has shot to the top of a market that can be fairly volatile. This time last year Willie Mullins' Sicilian Secret was widely touted but on the day drifted out to 9/1, finishing sixteenth of the twenty four runners.
World Hurdle: Despite the odd quirk, Big Buck's looks bomb-proof. Nearer the time I'll consider Karabak, Tidal Bay and Time For Rupert.
Triumph Hurdle: Often a very rough race and not one I'm particularly keen on. Will check out Carlito Brigante.
Gold Cup: Kauto Star for me - with bookies going 14/1 bar two I'll be looking for some fancy prices about an each-way longshot.
One tip for the Festival that is certain to give value for money - make sure you purchase Raceform Update's Festival Preview usually published at the beginning of March.
Finally, I couldn't sign off without a comment on the first weekend's rugby internationals. The England v. Wales game was littered with mistakes, mostly on the Welsh side, but I thought some of the BBC's camera work in that game verged on the atrocious - in particular the spider-cam coverage did nothing but detract from the action on the field.
Friday, February 05, 2010
Saturday fare
Earlier today Alan King went to Bangor with three fancied runners but they were all turned over - Asturienne (2/7f), Devil To Pay (5/6f) and Pennek (9/4).
A couple of Festival fancies take their chance at Sandown tomorrow but they'll make no appeal as betting material - Binocular faces just two opponents in the opener while Punchestowns would be expected to take the 2.35 on the way to the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. Nicky Henderson's According, currently second favourite for the Triumph Hurdle, is likely to start at a cramped price in the 2.05 - he boasts smart form on the Flat but has yet to jump an obstacle in public. Killyglen catches the eye in the Totesport Masters Handicap Chase - the yard is in form but after a break of 70 days you can't help but wonder what the plan is. If I have a bet at Sandown I'll have a small interest in Song Of Songs in the finale. He sometimes finds the fences getting in the way but on right-handed tracks this one has won four times from seven attempts, finishing second, third and fourth on the other three occasions. Consigliere, receiving seven pounds, beat the selection sixteen lengths at Newbury in November and rates a danger, with the jock claiming a handy-looking three pounds.
There are plenty of runners at Doncaster, no doubt tempted by the prospect of better ground; however this evening the going is described as good to soft, soft in places. Hen Knight has chosen to withdraw Arkle Chase fancy Somersby from the Lightning Novices' Chase in which just five go to post. Following a breathing operation Nicky Henderson's giant of a horse Mad Max won well enough on his seasonal debut in the soft ground at Kempton. On official ratings he has it to do giving seven pounds to El Dancer and Woolcombe Folly but I wouldn't be inclined to oppose.
The feature is the Blue Square Handicap Chase at 3.25 - I can't deny I'm a bit concerned to see my Champion Chase fancy, Kalahari King, head the weights for this fifteeen runner handicap with underfoot unlikely to suit. Lennon ran a good race after a long layoff in the Victor Chandler a fortnight ago - he may well bounce on this second run but at 16/1 I'll take a small each-way interest.
In the four miler at four o'clock I'll have a second look at former pointer Knighton Combe who looks to have been trained specifically for this race.
Paddy Brennan has a couple of good rides at Wetherby on Battlecry and Weird Al. The latter, a 12/1 chance for the RSA Chase at the Festival, takes on old adversary Knockara Beau (33/1 for the same race) in the 2.50. On official ratings KB is the one to beat but this step up to three miles one furlong isn't certan to suit. A race to watch with Cheltenham in mind...
A couple of Festival fancies take their chance at Sandown tomorrow but they'll make no appeal as betting material - Binocular faces just two opponents in the opener while Punchestowns would be expected to take the 2.35 on the way to the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. Nicky Henderson's According, currently second favourite for the Triumph Hurdle, is likely to start at a cramped price in the 2.05 - he boasts smart form on the Flat but has yet to jump an obstacle in public. Killyglen catches the eye in the Totesport Masters Handicap Chase - the yard is in form but after a break of 70 days you can't help but wonder what the plan is. If I have a bet at Sandown I'll have a small interest in Song Of Songs in the finale. He sometimes finds the fences getting in the way but on right-handed tracks this one has won four times from seven attempts, finishing second, third and fourth on the other three occasions. Consigliere, receiving seven pounds, beat the selection sixteen lengths at Newbury in November and rates a danger, with the jock claiming a handy-looking three pounds.
There are plenty of runners at Doncaster, no doubt tempted by the prospect of better ground; however this evening the going is described as good to soft, soft in places. Hen Knight has chosen to withdraw Arkle Chase fancy Somersby from the Lightning Novices' Chase in which just five go to post. Following a breathing operation Nicky Henderson's giant of a horse Mad Max won well enough on his seasonal debut in the soft ground at Kempton. On official ratings he has it to do giving seven pounds to El Dancer and Woolcombe Folly but I wouldn't be inclined to oppose.
The feature is the Blue Square Handicap Chase at 3.25 - I can't deny I'm a bit concerned to see my Champion Chase fancy, Kalahari King, head the weights for this fifteeen runner handicap with underfoot unlikely to suit. Lennon ran a good race after a long layoff in the Victor Chandler a fortnight ago - he may well bounce on this second run but at 16/1 I'll take a small each-way interest.
In the four miler at four o'clock I'll have a second look at former pointer Knighton Combe who looks to have been trained specifically for this race.
Paddy Brennan has a couple of good rides at Wetherby on Battlecry and Weird Al. The latter, a 12/1 chance for the RSA Chase at the Festival, takes on old adversary Knockara Beau (33/1 for the same race) in the 2.50. On official ratings KB is the one to beat but this step up to three miles one furlong isn't certan to suit. A race to watch with Cheltenham in mind...
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Weekend notes
Big Zeb bounced back to form to take the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown earlier today; the trainer feels he has now sorted a problem the horse had with ringbone on his off-fore. This evening Ladbrokes bet 7/1 Colm Murphy's charge for the Champion Chase.
The abandonment of Doncaster yesterday meant that Nicky Henderson's Mad Max missed his intended engagement while Henrietta Knight's Somersby is likely to be re-routed to Doncaster next Saturday after Hereford was called off earlier today. One name missing from the list of runners in Saturday's Cleeve Hurdle was Karabak - Alan King's charge scoped dirty and as a result was kept at home in his box.
Paul Nicholls rightly took the plaudits for bringing Taranis back from a long layoff to win the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday. However, over the past couple of days a number of his more fancied chances have failed to deliver - both Tataniano (2/11f) and Aiteen Thirtythree (7/4f) were turned over at Newbury on Friday while Pistolet Noir (8/15f) and Royal Charm (5/4f) disappointed at the Festival Trials Day.
Well done to fellow blogger Ben Aitken whose book 'Narrowing The Field: Using The Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing' received a favourable review in the Racing Post before Christmas but reached another level with a review in last Sunday's Observer. Perhaps now is the time to invest in a copy with just six short weeks before the Cheltenham Festival.
Tennis correspondent Mrs Tips' verdict on the Australian men's final: Federer awesome, Murray work in progress.
One footballing item - a Lee Dixon comment overheard in today's radio coverage of the Arsenal v. Manchester United game: 'It's hard enough staying on your feet when you're playing against Rooney, but if you're going to fall over, you're giving yourself a mountain to climb.' I'm not certain I know what he was trying to say there...
Finally a recent tweet from @Huntingdonraces suggested we ditch flowers and chocs for Valentine's Day and take a loved one racing instead. I tried that before but Mrs Tips was singularly unimpressed. Here's an alternative suggestion - ditch the loved one for the afternoon and go racing on your own - much more fun!
The abandonment of Doncaster yesterday meant that Nicky Henderson's Mad Max missed his intended engagement while Henrietta Knight's Somersby is likely to be re-routed to Doncaster next Saturday after Hereford was called off earlier today. One name missing from the list of runners in Saturday's Cleeve Hurdle was Karabak - Alan King's charge scoped dirty and as a result was kept at home in his box.
Paul Nicholls rightly took the plaudits for bringing Taranis back from a long layoff to win the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday. However, over the past couple of days a number of his more fancied chances have failed to deliver - both Tataniano (2/11f) and Aiteen Thirtythree (7/4f) were turned over at Newbury on Friday while Pistolet Noir (8/15f) and Royal Charm (5/4f) disappointed at the Festival Trials Day.
Well done to fellow blogger Ben Aitken whose book 'Narrowing The Field: Using The Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing' received a favourable review in the Racing Post before Christmas but reached another level with a review in last Sunday's Observer. Perhaps now is the time to invest in a copy with just six short weeks before the Cheltenham Festival.
Tennis correspondent Mrs Tips' verdict on the Australian men's final: Federer awesome, Murray work in progress.
One footballing item - a Lee Dixon comment overheard in today's radio coverage of the Arsenal v. Manchester United game: 'It's hard enough staying on your feet when you're playing against Rooney, but if you're going to fall over, you're giving yourself a mountain to climb.' I'm not certain I know what he was trying to say there...
Finally a recent tweet from @Huntingdonraces suggested we ditch flowers and chocs for Valentine's Day and take a loved one racing instead. I tried that before but Mrs Tips was singularly unimpressed. Here's an alternative suggestion - ditch the loved one for the afternoon and go racing on your own - much more fun!
Friday, January 29, 2010
Festival Trials Day
With forecasters predicting temperatures in the region of minus three tonight, tomorrow's meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter are all subject to 8.00 am inspections; Cheltenham has the frost covers in place so looks to have the best chance of staging racing, the highlight being the Argento Chase at 2.35 with the Cleeve Hurdle (3.40) providing good support.
Only seven go to post for the trappy-looking Argento Chase which is run over a trip just short of three and a quarter miles; the bookmakers think it's between three - Carruthers, Madison Du Berlais and Inchidaly Rock. On official ratings Madison Du Berlais (50s for the Gold Cup) is the one to beat but he appears to give his best performances on flat tracks; having said that, the stable is on fire with six winners from fourteen runners in the past two days. With Denman heading for the Aon Chase at Newbury (rather than running here), Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Inchidaly Rock (5/1 favourite for the National Hunt Novices' Chase at the Festival) of the two Nicholls runners - this one has won over course and distance but has a bit to find with a couple of his opponents. Carruthers (33/1 for the Gold Cup) is a trail-blazer who does it all from the front and is at his best dominating in small fields - at the back of my mind though I can't help recalling his fourth in last year's RSA Chase where, over this course and distance, he made a serious blunder four out that effectively put paid to his chance. I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss last year's winner Joe Lively either from Colin Tizzard's in-form yard - for those prepared to take the chance he could prove very good value. Connections of Carruthers have indicated they'll consider the Gold Cup if things work out here and he looks the percentage call so gets the vote - his lack of chasing experience in comparison to the rest of the field is the concern. It's worth noting the favourite has failed to win this in the last ten years.
Thirteen go in a most competitive renewal of the Cleeve Hurdle. That tough little course and distance winner Lie Forrit (20/1 for the World Hurdle) makes the journey down from Hawick and is likely to start favourite. Katchit is the top-rated animal in the field but there has to be a concern about him seeing out the trip, a comment that also applies to David Pipe's Mr Thriller. Both Tatenen and Tidal Bay revert to hurdles after experiencing trouble jumping fences while Kennel Hill should be given a wide berth following his display of petulance with a race at his mercy two weeks ago. Course and distance winner Fair Along is respected and looks overpriced at 10/1 with Ladbrokes this evening but Time For Rupert (33/1 for the World Hurdle) is one that I like. I tipped him each way for the Ascot Hurdle but he finished out with the washing - the next time I missed him and he won at 16/1. He's well-regarded by connections - I'll back him each-way provided the odds are big enough.
The market tells us the 3.10 is between Nicky Henderson's General Miller (20/1 for the Neptune at the Festival) and Paul Nicholls' Royal Charm (12/1 for the Neptune) - the word is that General Miller is one of the stable's best novices. You pay your money and takes your choice. If you held a gun to my head, I'd go with Royal Charm but, in search of some value, I'll consider Restless Harry whose second in the Challow at Newbury on heavy going indicates this trip shouldn't be a problem. Stratford-on-Avon trainer Robin Dickin has told the Weekender he has his charge in 'better shape' for this test than for the Challow.
Pistolet Noir (10/1 second favourite for the Triumph at the Festival) looks the one to beat in the opener but he's likely to start odds-on.
Whatever happens, one thing is for certain - several more Cheltenham clues are likely to be uncovered with the Festival little more than six weeks away.
Only seven go to post for the trappy-looking Argento Chase which is run over a trip just short of three and a quarter miles; the bookmakers think it's between three - Carruthers, Madison Du Berlais and Inchidaly Rock. On official ratings Madison Du Berlais (50s for the Gold Cup) is the one to beat but he appears to give his best performances on flat tracks; having said that, the stable is on fire with six winners from fourteen runners in the past two days. With Denman heading for the Aon Chase at Newbury (rather than running here), Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Inchidaly Rock (5/1 favourite for the National Hunt Novices' Chase at the Festival) of the two Nicholls runners - this one has won over course and distance but has a bit to find with a couple of his opponents. Carruthers (33/1 for the Gold Cup) is a trail-blazer who does it all from the front and is at his best dominating in small fields - at the back of my mind though I can't help recalling his fourth in last year's RSA Chase where, over this course and distance, he made a serious blunder four out that effectively put paid to his chance. I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss last year's winner Joe Lively either from Colin Tizzard's in-form yard - for those prepared to take the chance he could prove very good value. Connections of Carruthers have indicated they'll consider the Gold Cup if things work out here and he looks the percentage call so gets the vote - his lack of chasing experience in comparison to the rest of the field is the concern. It's worth noting the favourite has failed to win this in the last ten years.
Thirteen go in a most competitive renewal of the Cleeve Hurdle. That tough little course and distance winner Lie Forrit (20/1 for the World Hurdle) makes the journey down from Hawick and is likely to start favourite. Katchit is the top-rated animal in the field but there has to be a concern about him seeing out the trip, a comment that also applies to David Pipe's Mr Thriller. Both Tatenen and Tidal Bay revert to hurdles after experiencing trouble jumping fences while Kennel Hill should be given a wide berth following his display of petulance with a race at his mercy two weeks ago. Course and distance winner Fair Along is respected and looks overpriced at 10/1 with Ladbrokes this evening but Time For Rupert (33/1 for the World Hurdle) is one that I like. I tipped him each way for the Ascot Hurdle but he finished out with the washing - the next time I missed him and he won at 16/1. He's well-regarded by connections - I'll back him each-way provided the odds are big enough.
The market tells us the 3.10 is between Nicky Henderson's General Miller (20/1 for the Neptune at the Festival) and Paul Nicholls' Royal Charm (12/1 for the Neptune) - the word is that General Miller is one of the stable's best novices. You pay your money and takes your choice. If you held a gun to my head, I'd go with Royal Charm but, in search of some value, I'll consider Restless Harry whose second in the Challow at Newbury on heavy going indicates this trip shouldn't be a problem. Stratford-on-Avon trainer Robin Dickin has told the Weekender he has his charge in 'better shape' for this test than for the Challow.
Pistolet Noir (10/1 second favourite for the Triumph at the Festival) looks the one to beat in the opener but he's likely to start odds-on.
Whatever happens, one thing is for certain - several more Cheltenham clues are likely to be uncovered with the Festival little more than six weeks away.
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