David Smith, economics editor of The Sunday Times, wrote in Wednesday's edition of The Times:
"One of the jibes made against economists - and there are many - is that they see something working in theory and then wonder if it will work in practice."
I'm no economist but that sentiment struck a bit of a chord...
21 have been declared for this year's Scottish Grand National (3.35 Ayr), the second smallest field in the past ten years; 18 contested the 2023 renewal won by Kitty's Light.
The going at the track today was changed to soft, heavy in places, before the final race at 5.15; showers are predicted before racing tomorrow.
Top weight this year is rated 145.
The fact the past nine winners have all been rated 135 or above with only two carrying more than 11-00 - Mighty Thunder (144) 11-02, 2021 and Win My Wings (140) 11-08, 2022 - highlights this renewal is some way below the usual standard.
With the exception of Kap Vert, younger horses find themselves towards the head of the market.
Just over five weeks ago Ask Brewster held Road To Home a neck in the Kim Muir on good ground at Cheltenham with Kim Roque eight lengths adrift in fourth and Herakles Westwood fading badly from three out to finish well beaten in mid division.
On revised terms Road To Home would be expected to reverse placings, especially as, to date, Ask Brewster has shown his best form on decent ground; Kim Roque and Road To Home look closely matched, although Kim Roque appeared to be closing on the leaders at the finish.
King Of Answers seemed to take a step forward in first-time cheekpieces at Kelso in February (Maximillian third) and, raised ten pounds, lost nothing in defeat to Holloway Queen over three and three quarters miles in the National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Festival (eighth Holokea won at Haydock on Wednesday); the handicapper has raised him a further three pounds for that effort.
Paul Nicholls saddles two - Quebecois and Isaac Des Obeaux; the trainer has won the race three times previously with Belmont King (1997) and Vicente twice (2016 and 2017).
Quebecois is still a maiden over fences.
He finished third behind Johnnywho and Jagwar in the Ultima (the first named fourth in the Grand National last week, the latter unseating Mark Walsh following a bad mistake in the same race) with Blaze The Way seventh and the grey Stolen Silver beaten over 45 lengths in fourteenth.
On his blog the handler concedes his charge 'is probably on a tough mark now' and continues:
"On good ground I have no doubt he [Quebecois] would get the trip but on this ground I don't know.
"He is a half brother to an Albert Bartlett winner and he did get the trip at Cheltenham the other day."
On his penultimate start Isaac Des Obeaux was beaten 21 lengths by Rivers Corner in the Somerset National at Wincanton.
I had the beast down as a doubtful stayer after that effort but next time out, over a mile further and under an inspired Sam Twiston-Davies ride, the gelding stayed on stoutly to beat Rock My Way eight lengths in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter, with Git Maker third and Collectors Item pulled up.
He looked to have a hard race that day and has been raised seven pounds to a career high mark of 139.
Blinkers appear to have helped Git Maker.
His stamina gave out over four and a quarter miles at Uttoxeter but Jamie Snowden's charge was third in this race on soft ground in 2024 off 133; two years on he tries again off 129.
Montregard has spent the season racing right-handed, winning twice at Ascot and finishing second behind The Jukebox Kid (Kap Vert fourth) at the same track on his penultimate start.
16 pounds higher than in the autumn, he comes here with a progressive profile and will be fresher than most. He tries a trip beyond three miles for the first time but his trainer thinks he'll stay.
Chasingouttheblues has won three of his seven chase starts to date and caught the eye four weeks ago when staying on to reel in Fierce Warrior after the last over an extended three miles at Carlisle. After the race Tim Walford, father of trainer Mark, said:
"Chasingouttheblues loves a horse to aim at. He wants far further and he's a Nationals horse. We might have a crack at the Scottish National if there's a bit of give, he wouldn't run on quick ground. He's improving. This track suited him better than last time [beat Paddy O'Mahler half a length at Catterick], when he wasn't quite right."
Promontory didn't run until he was eight but won the Dublin National Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over an extended three and a half miles at the beginning of March. He was raised nine pounds for the win and races here off a mark five pounds higher than that Irish rating; the gelding has been the subject of some market support during the day.
Kap Vert finished under eight lengths behind Montregard in the race won by The Jukebox Kid at Ascot in January before winning a Class 3 handicap chase on good ground at Taunton at the beginning of last month. Only six years of age, he hails from a yard who don't make a habit of overfacing their charges.
Herakles Westwood, my each-way selection for the Kim Muir, faded from three out for no obvious reason - another instance when a theory of mine didn't work out in practice.
He finished behind Blaze The Way at Cheltenham in December before beating Katate Dori on New Year's Day; any benefit derived from the wind surgery undergone in February was difficult to discern at the Festival.
Sam Thomas saddles two - Katate Dori and Our Power.
Our Power, third in this last year with Famous Bridge and Magna Sam both pulled up, has been out of sorts this season; connections fit first-time blinkers but Dylan Johnson rides Katate Dori whose sixth behind Panic Attack in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury reads well enough.
Collectors Item beat Katate Dori off a mark of 132 in the 2025 Somerset National at Wincanton but Jonjo O'Neill's charge is another who has too often failed to transfer my working theories into practice.
Gabbys Cross has the assistance of Sean Bowen in the saddle but has been contesting veterans chases since joining Nick Schofield.
Since 2000 there have been three winners older than ten: Hello Bud (2009); Merigo (2012); and Wayward Prince (2015).
Certainly not the highest quality renewal but very competitive nonetheless.
Novices boast a good record in the race and both Promontory and Kap Vert look unexposed but Git Maker, third last year, arrives in form and should appreciate the soft ground.
Git Maker is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 16/1 with bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral, all paying five places.
That's the theory. Will work in practice?
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