The 2025 Welsh Grand National

A vintage renewal of the King George at Kempton earlier today, with The Jukebox Man (7/1), owned by Harry Redknapp, beating Banbridge (16/1) and Gaelic Warrior (9/4jf) a nose and a nose, and Jango Baie (9/4jf) half a length away in fourth.  

19 runners declared for tomorrow's Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow) run over three miles six and a half furlongs; the going on the chase course is currently described as good to soft and the drying ground won't suit a few in this field.

Sent off 6/1 favourite for last year's renewal, Jubilee Express finished second, one and a half lengths behind Val Dancer, with stablemate Iwilldoit third and fourth horse Monbeg Genius a further ten lengths in arrears.

Sam Thomas' charge raced off 126 that day, Dylan Johnson claiming three. He races off 130 tomorrow, having beaten Collectors Item two and a half lengths here in the Trial over three miles three weeks ago (Pats Fancy over 50 lengths behind in sixth). That represented a commendable effort by the runner-up on seasonal debut; pilot Kevin Brogan dropped his whip just after two out and meets the winner four pounds better off.

Git Maker, second behind subsequent Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin in the 2024 Kim Muir, finished third in the Scottish Grand National the following month. The gelding likes soft ground; this looks to have been the target after a prep race over the Lingfield hurdles six and a half weeks ago to blow away the cobwebs.   

Unbeaten in three starts last season Mr Vango returned as good as ever three weeks ago, pipped a short head by Twig in the Becher at Aintree (Monbeg Genius pulled up) conceding a stone to the winner. The handicapper has raised him another three pounds for that effort and he now races off a mark 20 pounds higher than when beating Collectors Item one and a half lengths in the 2024 London National at Sandown. 

Rock My Way, fifth in the Scottish Grand National in April, went into several notebooks when jumping like a stag and shooting clear from two out to win the Berkshire National at Ascot 11 lengths. After the race handler Joe Tizzard said:

"He's always been consistent but he's never done anything like that. It was a beautiful performance to watch and he actually put himself in the Grand National picture after that."  

Drying ground will not be a concern.

Haiti Couleurs won the National Hunt Challenge Cup at Cheltenham in March and followed that up by winning the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse the following month. Rebecca Curtis' charge was awash with sweat in the preliminaries that day and, once again, on his first try in Graded company, he was on edge before the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month where, caught on the back foot at the start, he failed to establish a rhythm and never jumped with much fluency, eventually being pulled up before four out.

Subsequently the trainer said:

"He came back from Haydock quite sore on his sacroiliac joint which we had medicated the Monday after, it seems to have really helped." 

He has form on better ground - in receipt of seven pounds, he beat Uncle Bert 15 lengths at Aintree just over a year ago. Now in receipt of 18 pounds, that opponent is certainly weighted to reverse the form but his ability to see out the trip has to be taken on trust. 

Keep an eye on Haiti Couleurs in the preliminaries. 

O'Connell, best on soft, won this year's London National at Sandown (Hung Jury second, Tanganyika a disappointment and pulled up before The Pond Fence); Gavin Sheehan's move up the inside rail approaching two out proved decisive. Danny McMenamin, in fine form lately, takes over tomorrow but I'm not certain this track, which can favour those that race prominently, will suit O'Connell who is often played late for a turn of foot.

Intense Raffles, winner of the 2024 Irish Grand National,  faces a stiff task off top weight. He ran well for a long way in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury last time but usually appreciates plenty of cut underfoot.

Collectors Item has some respectable efforts to his name including second in the 2024 London National behind Mr Vango - meets that rival 12 pounds better off - and beating Katate Dori in the Somerset National at Wincanton in January. He's three pounds 'well in' after that latest run behind Jubilee Express and won a novice hurdle at the track in 2022.

I thought Dom Of Mary a tad lucky to win at Newcastle last time. That day Ned Fox sent 2/1 favourite Zertakt into a clear lead between the final two flights but the gelding slowed markedly approaching the last, losing all momentum and allowing James Owen's charge to scoot away and win two and a quarter lengths. Dom Of Mary is one pound out of the handicap.

Incidentally Zertakt made amends at Cheltenham two weeks ago - handler Venetia Williams has the National Hunt Chase at the Festival in March as his target.

Nassalam won the 2023 renewal of this race 34 lengths on heavy ground off 145 - only five of the 19 to go to post completed. The handicapper duly clobbered Gary & Josh Moore's charge; back now to a mark of 145, he has been pulled up in five of his six starts since and underwent wind surgery last month.

Deafening Silence stayed on well enough when second behind Konfusion in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last time (Konfusion won the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby earlier today) but was some 15 lengths behind the winner. Trainer Dan Skelton is on record saying that the gelding wants soft ground and a gap between his races; this will be the first chase with more than eight runners he has contested.

Uncle Bert blew away his field over two and a half miles at Aintree earlier this month, recording his first chase win in four starts. Now rated 140, he's four pounds 'well in' here and in January won a Haydock hurdle over an extended three miles. He's a tough cookie and weighted to reverse placings with Haiti Couleurs on Aintree form from last year but he's not guaranteed to see out the marathon trip. 

Livin On Luco made all and stayed on dourly to hold Neo King a neck in the Southern National at Fontwell six weeks ago; last December he finished sixth at Cheltenham, some 69 lengths behind Haiti Couleurs. Another one racing from one pound out of the handicap.

Tanganyika failed to build on a promising seasonal return at Sandown last time while Hung Jury, one of two veterans in the field, had no answer to O'Connell's turn of foot when second in that same race; Hung Jury is another to race from out of the handicap. 

Back in 2023 Monbeg Genius won a couple of novice chases at this track. Fourth in last year's renewal off 144, he's two pounds better off here - a bad mistake four out put paid to any chance he might have held in the Becher on seasonal debut.

Where It All Began finished fourth in the 2024 Kim Muir, eighth behind Intense Raffles in the 2024 Irish Grand National but has shown no worthwhile form since, while Beaufort Scale - six pounds out of the handicap - remains a maiden over fences and is a reserve for tomorrow's Paddy Power Chase (3.00 Leopardstown).

Pat's Fancy, the other veteran, races from a mark nine pounds out of the handicap.

Of the principals, Rock My Way and Haiti Couleurs should not be inconvenienced by drying ground.

The vote goes to Collectors Item, with the O'Neill yard now in better form; I'm hoping he can build on that effort behind Jubilee Express last time.

Collectors Item is the each-way suggestion, 10/1 generally at the time of writing, with most layers paying five places.