The 2025 Paddy Power Gold Cup

Tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 Cheltenham) is to be run in memory of Irish trainer Edward O'Grady who sent out 18 Festival winners between 1974 and 2006.

He trained Tranquil Sea to win this race in 2009 - and we haven't seen an Irish winner since. Five have crossed the Irish Sea to take their chance tomorrow. 

The going at Cheltenham is currently described as soft, good to soft in places, with a precautionary inspection called for 7.30 tomorrow morning as further heavy rain associated with Storm Claudia is forecast. 

Talking to ITV cameras before this afternoon's finale, clerk of the course Jon Pullen pointed out the rain was due to stop around 1.00 am and, with drying conditions, he was 'hopeful' racing could go ahead - the card would be given every chance.     

A final field of fifteen was declared on Thursday but this evening top weight and market leader Jagwar has been declared a non-runner on account of the ground. 

Vicenzo, a big horse who goes well fresh and generally needs time between his races, has replaced Jagwar at the head of the market. Sam Thomas' charge has yet to win over this trip but the stable has sent out five winners from seven runners in the past fortnight. 

Last year's winner Il Ridoto tries to repeat the trick this time off a mark just one pound higher.

Paul Nicholls' inmate raced from out the handicap that day but caries 11-08 tomorrow which indicates this year's running wouldn't be considered the highest quality renewal - last year top weight Protektorat was rated 167 and five others runners in the field of 15 ran off a mark in the 150s.

The lowest rated winner in the past decade is Coole Coady (137) in 2020.

Dan Skelton saddles three -  Panic Attack, Hoe Joly Smoke and Riskintheground. 

Harry rides the mare Panic Attack which suggests she's the stable's best chance - in a recent stable tour article the handler said:

"The plan is to give her one run and go for the Paddy Power Gold Cup."

She hasn't had that one run - last seen out at Warwick in February - and spent more time hurdling than chasing last season. Three of her five chase starts have been in mares' only races which I find off-putting but clearly this has been the target for some time and the stable is operating at a 26% win strike rate over the past fortnight.

On seasonal debut stablemate Hoe Joly Smoke ran well at this track over three miles one furlong when third behind Three Card Brag three weeks ago. 

Connections subsequently indicated they felt their charge didn't see the trip out that day as they'd done plenty of work with the horse and fitness wasn't the issue - the gelding has won over three miles but not beyond. I feel the step back to two and a half miles wouldn't necessarily suit - yet to win over the distance under rules - although the rain should help his stamina come into play.

Riskintheground won the Silver Trophy Handicap Chase on the New Course in April (Il Ridoto over ten lengths adrift in seventh) but his form is mostly on decent ground.

Thecompanysergeant finished two and threequarters lengths behind Jagwar in the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase at the Festival in March (Il Ridoto over 20 lengths adrift in twelfth). On a strict reading of that form he was closely matched with Jagwar but Gavin Cromwell's gelding hasn't been in the same form this summer and has drifted out to 9/1 with some layers.

Henry De Bromhead saddles two - Coming Up Easy and the mare Theatre Native.

Last year Lets Go Champ raced prominently before eventually finishing third for the yard; Coming Up Easy is a progressive front runner in a rich vein of form having won his last three starts in Ireland, the last a Listed handicap chase at Killarney. This one has won a Limerick maiden hurdle over two miles five on heavy ground and didn't appear to stay three miles behind Three Card Brag at Navan in January.

The booking of Sean Bowen for Theatre Native is interesting; she won the Aston Martin Mares' Novices' Handicap Chase on the New Course in April.

When the rain arrives, so does money for Venetia Williams trained runners - Hunter Legend has more than halved in price over the past 24 hours. He has won five of his 11 chase starts; this will be the first chase he has contested with more than eight runners in the field.

Hold-up ride Conyers Hill was sixth behind Jazzy Matty in the Grand Annual in March and has yet to win over this trip while veteran Es Perfecto doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock and finished fifth behind Caldwell Potter in the Jack Richards at the Festival in March (run on the New Course) - that day he lost three places after the final fence. 

The last horse older than nine to come home in front was Clear Cut in 1975.

While Bad has turned out to be rather good since blinkers were fitted for the first time in January - he has won three of his six chase starts - the arrival of rain looks a bit of a negative for Ben Pauling's runner. Lady Cricket, the last mare to come home in front, won the 2000 renewal as a six year old and since then only four horses have replicated the feat: Celestial Gold (2004); Exotic Dancer (2006); Johns Spirit (2013); and Ga Law (2002).

Stablemate of Thecompanysergeant The Other Mozzie finished a further two places behind Es Perfecto in seventh in the Jack Richards and hasn't won beyond two miles two furlongs while Issar D'Airy's form over two miles with Martator and Libberty Hunter reads well enough.

In summary, not the highest quality renewal of the race once known as the Mackeson Gold Cup and it's no real surprise to see connections decide to withdraw Jagwar - which has seen prices contract.

Hoe Joly Smoke and Coming Up Easy were the two each-way chances under consideration; Henry De Bromhead's charge gets the nod although the handicapper doesn't appear to have been overly lenient with a mark of 142.

Coming Up Easy is the each-way suggestion, currently 9/1 with bet365 and William Hill both paying four places, provided, of course, the card passes tomorrow morning's inspection. 

Footnote

I've spent a lifetime struggling to sort the wheat from the chaff and I realise it must be even harder for blog readers, so here's a helpful little pointer.

Last month, in a post entitled 'Hoping to come on for the run', I indicated Deep Cave was worth a second look in the Native River Handicap Chase at Chepstow. After winning the opening handicap hurdle at Aintree on Grand National day, trainer Christian Williams had said of his charge:

"It's probably taken us a long time to figure him out, but we thought he'd be better on nice ground and he's going to be very special over fences next year. He won a novice chase in France, so he's not a novice, but hopefully he'll be a Saturday horse."

In the event Deep Cave didn't run at Chepstow on account of the ground but he did contest the Weatherbys and Birdie Calendars Handicap Chase at Bangor on Wednesday - and won at odds of 11/1.

Did you bet it, PG?

Good Lord! No! Who ever backs a Saturday horse on a Wednesday?

Factual correction published 15.11.25 @ 17:15

Happy Diva was the last mare to win the race - in 2019 - not Lady Cricket as stated above.