The 2025 Lavazza Handicap Hurdle at Ascot

All that talk about holding the Cheltenham Festival from Wednesday to Saturday has given me the spooks. It's bats.

Anyway, for coffee lovers looking to blow away the pumpkins and the cobwebs, here's a shot at tomorrow's Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (3.10 Ascot). 12 face the starter with the going currently described as good, good to firm in places, the quicker ground to be found up the home straight. Rain is forecast.

I've spent some time looking at the less exposed types; many hold a rating from the Flat:

127h 74 Flat (GER)  Alexi

121h 83 Flat             Indemnity

119h 69 Flat             Torrent

 116h 100 Flat          Fasol

113h 79 Flat             High Fibre

110h 81 Flat             Maasai Mara

One or two look potentially 'well in' if an arbitrary figure of +45 is used to convert a British Flat rating to a hurdle mark; market leader Alexi's Flat rating was achieved in Germany.

Joe Tizzard's charge was beaten two and a quarter lengths by Celtic Dino in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Chepstow three weeks ago - and may have finished closer to the winner with a better leap at the last. Stable form is the concern though with just one winner from 23 runners in the past fortnight.

Bought out of Roger Varian's yard for £80,000 at the beginning of the year, Indemnity has won each of the three handicap hurdles he has contested, last time beating solid yardstick Bowmore, the pair 17 lengths clear of Vocito in third. Part owned by Andrew Gemmell, the gelding travelled strongly that day at Market Rasen and, for the most part, looked quick over the obstacles.

Torrent's second behind Gibbs Island in a four-year-old hurdle at Chepstow last time reads well - the winner beat Give It To Me Oj six lengths in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock in February before weakening from three out in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham.

No four-year-old has won this race in the past decade.

Fasol beat High Fibre in a Taunton maiden in March before going down a neck to Dance And Glance in a novice at the same track. Paul Nicholls' charge subsequently finished five lengths third to Give It To Me Oj in the Novices' Championship Final at Sandown in April. 

On his blog the handler hints the gelding doesn't always find what might be expected at the business end of a race but there still looks plenty of mileage in a hurdle mark of 116 compared to his Flat rating and Freddie Keighley takes off seven pounds.

After winning a novice maiden hurdle at Warwick in May, the Harry Fry trained High Fibre has been racing over two and a half miles. 

He finished a (remote) fifth behind Don Virginia in the Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final at Worcester five weeks ago. I was at the track that day - racing from the front Don Virginia blew apart what looked on paper a very competitive field, a race in which hold up runners had no chance. The gelding steps back down in trip here; connections will hope first-time cheekpieces help the cause.

Maasai Mara races from one pound out of the handicap and is one of only three in the field without a recent run to their name.

Afadil and the mare Ooh Betty are the other two runners making their seasonal debut.

Mr Nicholls thinks Afadil, stablemate of Fasol, will come on for the run. 

Ooh Betty won first time out at Sandown last November and led to the final flight before finishing third behind Take No Chances (contests Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle 2.20 Wetherby tomorrow) and Kargese over course and distance in the Grade 2 Warfield Mares' Hurdle in January. That form reads well and Toby McCain-Mitchell claims five pounds.

Dance And Glance was sent off 5/1favourite for the Swinton at Haydock in May, eventually finishing fifth behind Our Champ. He looked to have Manuelito in his sights a fortnight ago at Newton Abbot but a bad mistake two out effectively cost him his winning chance. 

Washington, fifth in this race in 2022 when trained by Olly Murphy, has won three of his five starts since the move to Harry Dereham's yard 12 months ago. 

Last time the gelding held Moveit Like Minnie at Chepstow - the pair 40 lengths clear - but team Twiston-Davies will fancy their chance off 118 with five pound claimer James Turner replacing Tom Bellamy in the plate. 

Moveit Like Minnie was beaten less than three lengths behind Luccia, Impose Toi and Altobelli over course and distance off a mark of 124 in the 2023 running of the Betfair Exchange Trophy (once known as the Ladbrokes).

Top weight No Ordinary Joe contested the last three Martin Pipe Hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival when trained by Nicky Henderson, finding only Iroko too good in the 2023 renewal. He looks to face a stiff task on his second start for Faye Bramley. 

I'm haunted by the spectre of Michelle Keegan recently informing TV viewers the latest Sky / Netflix deal represents 'handsomely good value'; I've struggled to find a bookmaker offering anything like that in this race - am I under a spell?

At various junctures since final declarations, I've thought Indemnity, Fasol, Ooh Betty, Moveit Like Minnie - only to see the price disappear, ghost-like, before my eyes.

More likely a trick than a treat but I'm hoping a mark of 113 underestimates High Fibre's abilities. This is just his third start in a handicap - the last run at Worcester is ignored. The stable has fired in two winners from seven runners over the past fortnight.

High Fibre is the each-way suggestion, currently 20/1 with Sky and Paddy Power, both paying four places.