Friday, January 06, 2023

The 2022 Veterans' Chase Series Final at Sandown

Eighteen have been declared for this year's final (3.00 Sandown); the going is currently described as soft, good to soft in places - particularly along the back straight - with rain forecast in the morning.

Plenty of old friends - and a couple of old foes - in the field but I must admit I was surprised to see Prime Venture replace Ramses De Teillee at the head of the market earlier today.

Evan Williams' charge won last year's renewal (Sir Ivan third, Indy Five pulled up, 13 ran) and races off the same mark but up front Lilly Pinchin and Valadom took no prisoners that day on ground officially described as heavy; several in the field had cried enough before Prime Venture stayed on best of all, as the the RP Weekender's form analysis highlighted:

"No hanging around courtesy of Valadom and it set up for the distant closers, with conditions taking a toll.

"PRIME VENTURE stays forever and loves testing ground. He took an age to get going but it was clear from two out he had things covered and he surged clear late for a first win in 14 months." 

I'm not sure tomorrow's renewal will 'set up for the distant closers'.

Ramses De Teillee showed benefit for a wind operation in the summer when winning Leg 10 of the series at Warwick in November (Snow Leopardess pulled up); David Pipe's charge has been raised five pounds and carries top weight. 

Current yard form is a concern, as is the fact the grey has never won going right-handed.

As mentioned above, Snow Leopardess was quickly pulled up in Leg 10 after slipping on the approach to the first fence. 

The mare showed no ill effects next time, running well for a long way in the Becher Chase at Aintree to eventually finish eighth. 

The handicapper has played his part and dropped her four pounds to a mark of 142 - she won off 145 at Exeter last February. 

The grey didn't appear to handle the occasion when pulled up in the Grand National in April but has an obvious chance here.

Back in March Saint Xavier was second behind Indy Five in Leg 3 (Prime Venture third, Kauto Riko outpaced and pulled up) and showed his current wellbeing by beating Up Helly Aa King at Haydock in November with subsequent Welsh National winner The Two Amigos third, Coo Star Sivola fifth - and entitled to improve for his seasonal reappearance - and Chambard pulled up, reportedly never travelling with stable form quiet at the time.

On his previous outing Chambard won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham at odds of 40/1 so his chance is certainly respected. 

Sir Ivan has finished third in the past two renewals of this final - last year off a mark off 140 - so 129 could prove lenient. 

Along with Elegant Escape he was pulled up behind Run To Milan in Leg 1 at Exeter in February and finished third behind Dingo Dollar and Wishing And Hoping in Leg 8 at Aintree in October.  

Run To Milan won Leg 1 off a mark of 132 so 128 is certainly workable; with just 20 starts to his name, Victor Dartnall's gelding has fewer miles on the clock than any in this field.  

I've been a Crosspark fan for quite some time but he has his fair share of weight these days. Now with Nick Kent, he finished a creditable second in the 2020 final behind Seeyouatmidnight. 

Up Helly Aa King won Leg 2 at Doncaster in February (Chirico Vallis third) but stable form has to be a concern. 

Chirico Vallis likes to race prominently and won the Native River Handicap Chase off this mark at Chepstow in October 2021, beating Kitty's Light a head before subsequently finishing third behind Eclair Surf in the Classic Chase at Warwick,  form that reads well. 

I've always thought Ballyandy a better hurdler than chaser while Elegant Escape has never been the most fluent of jumpers and the majority of Broken Quest's form is on good ground.

Bermeo races from out of the handicap.

A very competitive renewal with eight runners set to carry 11-9 or more and a number in the field who like to race up with the pace. 

I'll take a small each-way interest in Run To Milan, at the time of writing 12/1 with Coral who are paying five places.


TW said...

2022 Veterans' Chase Series Final

Going: Soft

1,152,SIR IVAN(GB)

I found it impossible to find an angle in to this race, as such I’m sitting it out, but best of luck with Run To Milan.

Excited by Xcitations

Simon Rowlands thinks Grey Diamond has a 34.8% chance of winning and has advised a 2 point win bet. Much as I respect SR I just cannot see it, that said SR is right many more times than me.

Xcitations [X] has won 3 of his last 4 chases yet the handicapper has only raised him a couple of pounds and this is offset by Jack Andrew’s claim. X’ record in races over obstacles at this trip reads 173111. His best system rating came under today’s rider on similar ground when a close 2nd to the useful Garry Clermont on his final spin over hurdles. I cannot let him go off at 16/1 3 places 1/5 odds.

Good luck!


GeeDee said...

Thanks for your ratings, TW.

Good luck with Xcitations!

GeeDee said...

Excellent Xcitations, TW!
Never a moment's worry.

TW said...

I'll take a small each-way interest in Run To Milan, at the time of writing 12/1 with Coral who are paying five places.

Well done another winning week for the blog....


GeeDee said...

Something of a turn up in the Veterans' Chase with 50/1 chance Wishing And Hoping going clear after the Pond Fence; despite an awkward jump at the last, Mel Rowley's charge had plenty in reserve to fend off the late challenge of Ramses De Teillee (6/1jf) to win by two and a quarter lengths.

The first two home raced with the pace from the start.

Selection Run To Milan (8/1) appeared outpaced four from home - I thought his chance had gone - but he stayed on dourly from the penultimate flight to claim third, five lengths behind Ramses De Teillee, with a noteworthy effort from Up Helly Aa King (20/1) in fourth ahead of Saint Xavier (6/1jf) in fifth.