Whatever the ramifications of the Robbie Dunne / Bryony Frost case, the sport hasn't been seen in the best light in the past fortnight.
Fourteen go to post for tomorrow's Racing Post Gold Cup Handicap Chase (1.50 Cheltenham) with the going on the New Course at Prestbury Park currently described as good to soft, good in places.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup, run over two miles four furlongs on the Old Course, often acts as a useful guide; in last month's renewal Midnight Shadow came home in front with Lalor third, Dostal Phil fourth, Zanza equal sixth, Deyrann De Carjac eleventh and Coole Cody falling at the penultimate flight when still in the lead; less than six lengths covered the first six home. Tomorrow's race, run over a half furlong further, is generally considered a stiffer test.
Lalor's third in the Paddy Power off 149 on his first run for the Nicholls yard has impressed the layers who have Paul Nicholls' charge clear favourite.
The gelding races off 151 tomorrow; since 2000 only two horses have won off an official rating higher than 150 - Poquelin twice (151 in 2010; 163 in 2011) and Frodon (164 in 2018).
In the immediate aftermath of last month's success connections of Midnight Shadow talked of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day; they've decided to take their chance in this off 154 (raised seven pounds). Sue Smith's charge likes it around here and should give a good account. The last horse to win the Paddy Power and this race in the same season was Exotic Dancer in 2006.
In my book Coole Cody isn't the most reliable at his obstacles but he had jumped well at the head of affairs last time before coming to grief two from home; he certainly looked booked for a place in a race where a number in the field struggled to land a blow. Of those racing midfield, the two Philip Hobbs trained runners, Dostal Phil and Zanza, made up most ground, the former finishing fourth (beaten three and a quarter lengths) and the latter equal sixth (beaten five and threequarters lengths).
On his first run in a handicap, course and distance winner Fusil Raffles brings strong form to the table. He was a fortunate winner of the Charlie Hall last time out but prior to that finished second behind Chantry House in the Marsh Novices' Chase at the Festival in March. One slight concern - all his chasing experience has been gained in small fields.
Silver Hallmark boasts two pieces of eye-catching form with Fiddlerontheroof (second in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury a fortnight ago). The layers certainly aren't taking any chances; I'm not tempted by one making his debut at this track with just three chase starts to his name.
Beakstown has yet to win a chase but has run well here previously and is seven pounds well in on his hurdle rating.
The booking of Rachael Blackmore for Farinet stands out but the suspicion is this one would prefer a little more cut under foot while stablemate Cepage is a course and distance winner but was pulled up in this race last year. The top weight faces a stiff task - since 2000 only Frodon has managed to carry that burden to victory.
Topofthecostwolds unseated Sam Twiston-Davies at Newbury a fortnight ago - this looks tough - while Francky Du Berlais won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen but hasn't been in quite the same form since returning from a break. That said, last time out he ran well for a long way over the National fences in the Grand Sefton won by stablemate Mac Tottie.
Two at bigger prices that may at least be worth a second look are Siruh Du Lac and Deyrann De Carjac.
I tipped the former for the 2020 Paddy Power Gold Cup (overjumped the first and unseated Tom Scudamore) on the back of two pieces of form: his victory in the 2019 renewal of the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase at the Festival; in the same race the following year - won by Simply The Betts - he was one length to the good when coming to grief two from home. He looks to have had his problems since but made a satisfactory return in a three mile novice hurdle seven weeks ago.
I tipped the latter for the 2021 Paddy Power Gold Cup on the back of his two-length third behind Midnight Shadow in 2020 Dipper Novices' Chase and some bullish comments from Alan King in the Weekender. He finished eleventh, beaten under 10 lengths, but he raced detached at the rear of the field most of the way and at one stage looked likely to be pulled up on his first run since June. He has been nibbled at in the market (50/1 in places earlier today) and I note Brendan Powell replaces Tom Cannon in the plate.
Plenty with chances - Zanza made impressive late headway in the Paddy Power last month and he gets the vote; this stiffer test should suit.
Zanza is the each-way suggestion, generally quoted a 12/1 chance; William Hill, Betfred, Paddy Power and Sky Bet are paying one fifth the odds five places.
8 comments:
Racing Post Gold Cup Handicap Chase
RTG,HORSE,WC%
182,SILVER HALLMARK(GB),16.1
179,ZANZA(IRE),14.5
178,FRANCKY DU BERLAIS(FR),10.2
175,COOLE CODY(IRE),7.8
173,DOSTAL PHIL(FR),6.6
173,FUSIL RAFFLES(FR),6.5
177,BEAKSTOWN(IRE),6.5
171,MIDNIGHT SHADOW(GB),6
175,DEYRANN DE CARJAC(FR),5.6
171,LALOR(GER),4.8
180,FARINET(FR),4.5
173,TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS(IRE),4.2
179,SIRUH DU LAC(FR),4
171,CEPAGE(FR),2.8
Silver Hallmark has both the highest rating and the top win chance% so it is fair to say that the system is bullish about him on his handicap debut. Possibly ran his best race yet when giving weight away all round on seasonal debut if he can improve again then a mark of 145 will underestimate his potential. Doubts have been expressed in places about his ability to act on decent ground given his two wins have come on going that has been easier. But there is enough evidence of his sire [Shirocco] producing progeny that can handle it well enough to dispel the fears and there is even a chance he’ll improve for it. He’s two from three going LH and has won in a big field. I’m holding out for 9/1+ on the exchange.
Zanza is next up on the system and his odds do look value. I wanted to see a bit more LTO following his Haldon Cup effort and there is a [very] slight suspicion that his system rating may be a little inflated.
Good luck!
TW
Good luck, TW!
Third on your ratings, Francky Du Berlais, is generally a 66/1 shot... ;)
This race is Timeform’ free ‘Daily Race Pass’.
Horse,TFR
FARINET,175p
SIRUH DU LAC,173
MIDNIGHT SHADOW,171
FUSIL RAFFLES (FR),169
SILVER HALLMARK,168p
LALOR (GER),168+
CEPAGE (FR),168
COOLE CODY (IRE),168
ZANZA (IRE),166
DOSTAL PHIL (FR),166
JOKE DANCER,166
BEAKSTOWN (IRE),166
TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS (IRE),166
DEYRANN DE CARJAC (FR),164+
FRANCKY DU BERLAIS (FR),164
FDB does not rate quite as well on TF [bottom!], but does he deserve to be a 80/1 shot?
FDB looked a progressive chaser going in to the Summer Plate and routed the field with an impressive win, gaining the allocated 178 system rating in this. He runs off a 6lb higher mark than his Summer Plate win in this but at face value that looks more than fair. Whilst he ran well over the summer months he has won in January at Exeter and on soft ground at Haydock so going may not be an issue. Possibly needed the run on his October return and lots of horses do not take to the National fences so perhaps valid excuses for his last two below par efforts.
Trying to predict a horse race via a computerised system is fraught with challenges but in this instance I think 80/1 is too big a price. If one of the 5-places bookies offer 80/1 I might have a dabble.
TW
Thanks for the Timeform ratings, TW.
Have just seen Paddy Power offer 80/1 FDB and paying five places. Often think Peter Bowen tends to have his winners in clusters; last winner 24 days ago and RTF figure is just 13%.
All that said, back in July FDB won the Summer Plate comfortably and is overpriced at 80/1.
Good luck!
FDB ticks most of the systems boxes but he does fail the Recent Form tests [both for the horse and the trainer] and that’s why the system passed him over.
That said….80/1….I’ll ponder further and it at least provides another interesting aspect to what should be a cracking race.
TW
Silver Hallmark now a non-runner [going] so I guess I misread his potential to act on today's ground!
Revised system output following the withdrawal:
RTG,HORSE ,WC%
179,ZANZA(IRE),14.6
178,FRANCKY DU BERLAIS(FR),10.9
175,COOLE CODY(IRE),8.8
173,FUSIL RAFFLES(FR),8.1
173,DOSTAL PHIL(FR),7.8
177,BEAKSTOWN(IRE),7.6
171,MIDNIGHT SHADOW(GB),7.5
175,DEYRANN DE CARJAC(FR),7.2
173,TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS(IRE),6.1
171,LALOR(GER),6
179,SIRUH DU LAC(FR),5.5
180,FARINET(FR),5.2
171,CEPAGE(FR),4.7
TW
Plenty with chances - Zanza made impressive late headway in the Paddy Power last month and he gets the vote; this stiffer test should suit.
Zanza is the each-way suggestion, generally quoted a 12/1 chance; William Hill, Betfred, Paddy Power and Sky Bet are paying one fifth the odds five places.
Good shout, well done.
TW
As leaders Siruh Du Lac (25/1) and Coole Cody (12/1) set a brisk early pace, selection Zanza (12/1; TW's top-rated after Silver Hallmark declared a non-runner) needed to be pushed along in rear.
It looked quite a rough race in behind but Zanza made steady progress despite bumps and barges, jumping fluently in the main.
As the pace picked up off the home turn, he made a mistake at the penultimate flight in around sixth spot and then, after jumping the last, started to motor up the hill. He couldn't reel in long-time leader Coole Cody but pinched second spot from Midnight Shadow (11/2) in the final stride.
5/1 favourite Fusil Raffles finished two and threequarters lengths adrift in fourth and Deyrann De Carjac (18/1) was a further eight and a half lengths behind in fifth.
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