Thursday, November 12, 2020

Cheltenham November meeting 2020 - a Friday fancy

A quick post for the first day of the 2020 Open meeting at Cheltenham, pragmatically re-branded 'the November meeting', presumably because all the action takes place behind closed doors.

A key piece of form for the Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (1.50) is Rouge Vif's victory in the Bentley Flying Spear Handicap Chase over course and distance three weeks ago. That day eyes were drawn to the performance of the winner - Harry Whittington's charge is scheduled to reappear in Sunday's Schloer Chase, one of the most eagerly awaited contests of the entire three days...

Rouge Vif finished seven and a half lengths clear of nearest pursuer Western Miller that day with Beat The Judge third, On The Slopes fifth and Ballywood sixth. 

Provided the rain stays away, Ballywood is of interest tomorrow. 

Alan King's charge briefly went second approaching the final flight last time before tiring up the hill. In this week's Weekender [11-15.11.20] the handler says:

"He's run well this season but had a good blow each time and may just have needed both outings so should be spot on this time. He could have a shout in a competitive race."

The handicapper has left Beat The Judge on a mark of 142, dropped On The Slopes one pound to 142 and dropped Ballywood two pounds to 142. In receipt of 10 pounds Beat The Judge beat Ballywood nine lengths at Fontwell in September; they race off level weights tomorrow. There wouldn't appear to be an awful lot between the trio but market prices don't reflect that.

Of the others, I'm not entirely convinced this is Magic Saint's optimum trip but Bryan Carver's five pound claim looks decidedly useful while Fanion D'Estruval created an impression when beating Sully D'Oc AA at Newbury this time last year but has just four chase starts to his name and is short enough in the market. Eamon An Cnoic enters calculations on his best form but wouldn't be guaranteed to put his best foot forward.

Priced up at 17/2 with both Betfair and BetVictor at the time of writing, Ballywood is the each-way suggestion.


Anonymous said...

168,ON THE SLOPES(GB),14.3
167,MAGIC SAINT(FR),12.4
168,FULL GLASS(FR),0.2

A forecast couple of hours of rain early tomorrow morning might suggest the the current going of Good to Soft [Good in places] will end up as just Good to Soft for an open renewal with only 6lbs between the field on my system ratings and just 2lb on RP’ ratings.

Born Survivor tops the system output; he was impressive when winning a listed handicap at the Ayr 2019 Scottish National meeting off a mark of 142. Hiked up to a mark of 152 for that win he struggled to make an impact last term and flopped on his seasonal debut [hopefully needed the run] this year. As a result he’s back on a mark of 142 and back in the game. The drop back to two miles may be an issue but at odds of 14/1 [4 places 1/5 odds at William Hills] it might pay to take a chance.

Good luck!


GeeDee said...

10 year stats (w-pl-r):

5yo: 0-2-4
6yo: 0-3-19
7yo: 3-5-28
8yo: 6-7-32
9yo: 0-3-20


Good luck, TW!

Anonymous said...

An error in my note; BS is running off a mark of 147 not 142. Fortunately the system used the right handicap mark so the ratings remain unaltered!

There is no arguing with that 9yo: 0-3-20 10 year statistic. Simon Rowlands in his ATR piece has an interesting table on improvement/deterioration against age:

That said I’m more worried about the drop back to 2 miles and that his disappointing LTO effort was simply him needing the race than I am about his age.

Good luck!


GeeDee said...


Equally as worried by the 6yo stat: 0-3-19 - and overnight rain.

Good luck1

Anonymous said...

Given that there is only one 7yo [125/1] and one 8yo [40/1] the market suggests that the 10-year age stat may well go out of the windows in this renewal!


GeeDee said...

Considering a wager on the 40/1 shot as a saver... ;)

Anonymous said...

I’m pre-empting that you’ll be focusing on the Paddy Power Gold Cup tomorrow so I’m putting my two bob’s worth up early as I may not get chance later.

177,SIRUH DU LAC(FR),8.5
178,AL DANCER(FR),7.5
179,SKY PIRATE(GB),5.2
172,BRELAN D'AS(FR),4.1

Mister Fisher has highest system win chance [15.3%] but odds of 11/2 provide zero edge so he’s not a bet for me.

Next up on the system is Coole Cody [CC] who has the top system form rating of 184. I’m not sure why owner Wayne Clifford decided to move him to Evan Williams but the change in scenery and the switch back to chasing appears to have chirped him up a bit!

CC has had 3 races this term; he won an ordinary novice chase easily in August before keeping a couple of Paul Nicholl horses honest in two subsequent efforts. In the middle race of the three he pulled well clear of Irish Prophecy who went on to be 2nd to El Presente [winner of last week’s Badger Beer] and then followed that good effort by comfortably winning a handicap at Taunton by 14 lengths on Thursday off a mark of 135 which I’m hoping suggest CC’ mark of 137 in this is a bit lenient.

Whilst CC may not have the right profile for a race like this [it is his first handicap chase] conditions should suit, he should cope if further rain gets into the ground, he has race fitness on his side and I’d like to think he can make the frame at odds of 20/1+.

Good luck with your selections in whatever races you cover.


GeeDee said...

Thanks for providing your ratings, TW.

I've been studying the Paddy Power, primarily as a form of distraction from Ballywood's indifferent effort earlier this afternoon.

Well done with Born Survivor (4 places) who, but for a mistake at the third last, would have claimed third.

I'll check out CC later - I watched Irish Prophecy's race at Taunton yesterday.

Good luck!

GeeDee said...

No complaints here.

Ballywood (13/2) raced in a clear second for much of the trip but when the pace picked up, Alan King's charge clearly wasn't good enough, beaten before the penultimate flight; he trailed home sixth.

Magic Saint (100/30) and Fanion D'Estruval (5/1) fought out the finish, the former prevailing by two and a quarter lengths with Beat The Judge (9/2) staying on to claim third a further nine lengths away.

TW's pick Born Survivor (28/1) had to settle for fourth but ran a fine race in defeat and would probably have made third but for a bad mistake at the third last.

In a post race TV interview, Magic Saint's stable lass told Matt Chapman the beast was the slowest two miler she'd come across.

All of a sudden, I just can feel this headache coming on...