Friday, October 09, 2020

Searching for a silver lining in Chepstow's Silver Trophy (2020 renewal)

 'Anywhere nice on holiday this year, PG?'

'Just the usual - a fortnight down the bottom of our back garden.'

'Lovely.'

It's been that sort of year.

A recent article in The Railway Magazine pointed out the chances of contracting coronavirus on a one-hour train journey were 11,000/1. If you took the precaution of wearing a facemask for the duration of the journey, the chances were calculated at 22,000/1. With odds like that and a senior railcard to hand, I decided a treat was in order - a day trip to London to catch up with daughter and boyfriend.

A pleasant stroll around Battersea Park, spot of lunch in The Lighthouse and then further restoratives taken at The Sydney Arms, Chelsea, which, last time I checked, was run by former Flat champion jock Richard Hughes.

I'm using the term 'run' rather loosely as Mr Hughes was nowhere to be seen on the day in question but I'm assuming he doesn't have an awful lot of spare time for pulling pints of Timmy Taylor's given he's currently training out of Weathercock House in Lambourn - a yard forever associated with the redoubtable Mrs Jenny Pitman and 1983 Grand National winner Corbiere.

Anyway, with Racing TV broadcasting run-of-the-mill midweek fare from Goodwood, Galway and Catterick Bridge, we decided to sit outside in the late summer sun; more close-run encounters were spotted at the Sydney St - Britten St junction than at the Catterick races. 

Earwigged at the bar: 'Let me check - yes, yes, my William Hill account is up as well.' All seems so deceptively easy, doesn't it? Unfortunately, I still haven't worked out what I'm doing wrong.

Usually around this time of year I ask my butler to dig out the tweeds and take them for their annual visit to the local dry cleaners in preparation for the season ahead. That won't be necessary this year. I recall now with a certain degree of embarrassment the time I took the tweeds on an end-of-summer jolly to the Stratford races. On that occasion, as the result of an oversight on Beeves' part, I arrived fully togged up but with a furtive mothball concealed in one of those troublesome inside pockets. I wasn't unduly pestered by low-flying insects during racing but afterwards during post-race drinks the sweet-smelling, sweet-talking Lady Fotherington-Smythe, knocking back pints of house lager faster than my odd job builder - 'Listerine' I think she called it - was memorably dismissive. Most disconcerting.

Since the resumption of racing following lockdown there appears to have been a surfeit of big-priced winners. One school of thought contends that, with no on-course market, off-course bookmakers are more willing to lay realistic odds about outsiders. At this point I should point out that the longshots I've bet since resumption have all finished exactly where the starting price indicated they should have.

British racing looks set to continue behind closed doors for the foreseeable future. Without spectators, the sport is expected to lose between £250 - £300 million this year. Trevor Hemmings is just one owner who has cut his cloth accordingly.

If you've made it this far, your perseverance is about to be rewarded with another one of my disappointing selections...

Seventeen are set to go to post for the Silver Trophy (3.57 Chepstow) with Lightly Squeeze a non-runner.

Paul Nicholls chalked up a four-timer at the track this afternoon with McFabulous impressive in the Persian War. The Ditcheat handler saddles two in this tomorrow - Saint Sonnet and Sir Psycho. 

Saint Sonnet carries top weight and I think I'm correct in saying that only one horse has carried top weight to victory since the inaugural running in 1988 - Court Minstrel obliged at odds of 40/1 in 2015 (and subsequently went on to win on the 2017 renewal as well).

Sir Psycho was extremely slick at his obstacles in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock and was not disgraced behind Burning Victory in the Triumph Hurdle, although we shouldn't forget Goshen (declared 4.25 Goodwood, Sunday) was some 10 lengths clear of his field when coming to grief in that most dramatic of races. Bryan Carver can claim five but the four-year-old still looks quite high in the handicap and would probably prefer more cut, a comment that applies to a few of the runners. Only two four-year-olds have come home in front: Carlovent (1999); and Mr Thriller (2009). 

The Dan Skelton / Harry Skelton combination took the spoils with Shelford in 2014 and Flash The Steel last year. The brothers try for the hat-trick tomorrow with Flash The Steel now rated eight pounds higher than 12 months ago. 

I've seen the J.P. McManus owned Notre Pari tipped up in a few places. This one looked booked for a place in the Lanzarote before coming to grief at the final flight; winner Burrows Edge finished down the field in the Coral Cup off a mark of 138.

As a general rule of thumb I prefer one that has shown form over the course here. Caswell Bay boasts course and distance winning form and finished second behind Torpillo in last year's renewal of the Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 4-Y-O Hurdle but his profile is too inconsistent and, again, I think he'd prefer easier conditions.

The two that I've considered at a price are Hometown Boy and Push The Tempo.

Hometown Boy likes to race prominently and has respectable efforts behind McFabulous and Hurricane Harvey in the book although I note the majority of his racing has been on right-handed tracks. 

Push The Tempo doesn't have too many miles on the clock and will not be inconvenienced by drying ground. His third behind Chapmanshype at Kelso three weeks ago reads well; Robert Stephens' charge finished fifth behind Secret Investor in the 2018 running of the Persian War. On Racing Post ratings Push The Tempo is the one to beat, with jockey Rex Dingle able to claim three; I've noted the price being nibbled at this evening. He could 'bounce' after the long layoff before that Kelso run but, conversely, that run may give a fitness edge against those making their seasonal debuts.

At the time of writing most layers offer 20/1 and several are paying one fifth the odds five places; in a competitive affair Push The Tempo is the each-way selection.   

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Continuing your railway theme, the 15:57 from Chepstow sounds more like a train timetable than a horse race.

Notre Pari [going] now also non-runner, any further withdrawals and those enhanced places might be at risk.

RTG,Horse,WC
169,TEA CLIPPER(IRE),22.5
165,HOMETOWN BOY(IRE),14.1
159,FLASH THE STEEL(IRE),13.1
161,PUSH THE TEMPO(IRE),11.5
161,SAINT SONNET(FR),10.3
162,SIR PSYCHO(IRE),9.8
159,DINO VELVET(FR),8.2
158,DOUBLY CLEVER(IRE),5
161,KHAGE(IRE),2.7
157,BEAUFORT WEST(IRE),1.1
157,CASWELL BAY(GB),0.7
129,KALONDRA(IRE),0.2
152,FIX SUN(FR),0.2
155,MARIO DE PAIL(FR),0.2
146,COTSWOLD WAY(IRE),0.2
157,FLINCK(IRE),0.2

Tea Clipper is the system’s idea of the most likely winner and whilst he head’s the market it can still see some value in odds of around 7/1 though the form of the yard does look to have dipped a bit of late.

The system, like yourself, also sees potential value in Hoemtown Boy and Push The Tempo but on balance I think I’ll save my powder for a certain 34 runner handicap on the flat….Summer Moon if you are interested!

Good luck

TW

GeeDee said...

Thanks for providing your ratings, TW, and your selection in the Cesarewitch.

A few 'old friends' in that race with form over the jumps including Not So Sleepy, Leoncavallo, current favourite Great White Shark, Coeur De Lion - along with Gavin Cromwell's four declarations!

22/1 Summer Moon (25/1 Betfair at the moment) looks big to me, given his close third in last year's race.

Hope you've read the signals correctly, TW.

;)

GeeDee said...

What's this? Good going at Chepstow, soft at Newmarket? Has there been some sort of mix-up?

The ground at Chepstow resulted in a raft of non-runners across the entire card; unfortunately the 7 withdrawals from the Silver Trophy also resulted in the withdrawal of those enhanced each-way places...

TW's ratings highlighted the chance of Tea Clipper beforehand and the 7/2 favourite ran out a ready winner, beating Flash The Steel (4/1) two and a quarter lengths with Flinck (14/1) third. Push The Tempo (5/1) looked booked for third spot after the last but he was outstayed by Flink in the shadow of the post, eventually crossing the line some five and a half lengths behind the winner.

I can only imagine what TW must be feeling after Summer Moon (16/1) ran a highly creditable second under top weight in the Cesarewitch. As Joe Fanning brought out Mark Johnson's charge to make his challenge, just for a moment I thought he could go on to win but Jason Watson was stoking up Great White Shark (9/2f) and Willie Mullins' grey mare went clear to win in the manner of a horse with a couple of pounds in hand.

'That's racing!' as they say...