Friday, January 24, 2020

Two longshots on the Cheltenham Trials Day card 2020

Cor blimey, guv'nor!

Enrietta Knight might ave ad a few quid in er purse but Enry Iggins ran a orror in the Pertemps Network  Andicap Urdle at Untingdon (2.00) earlier today. Eaded after the first, e ad a couple of misaps at the urdles and was soon ard at work; e appened to beat just the one ome, finishing 36 and a alf lengths behind ard eld otpot Sermando. Orrendous.

Ere's a couple of tips that are unlikely to get you singing and dancing in the streets or elp your umour - and I must try and drop stopping my aitches.

Trials day at Cheltenam, sorry Cheltenham, tomorrow; along with everyone else I'll be looking for those Festival clues. Just six and a half weeks to go...

For betting purposes though I'm interested in the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase (1.15) and the concluding Steel Plate and Sections Handicap Hurdle (4.10).

Twelve go to post for the 1.15 with Imperial Aura currently priced up favourite.

On his seasonal debut Imperial Aura finished third behind Flash The Steel and Champagne Court in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow (Ballyandy eighth, subsequent Ascot winner Greaneteen thirteenth). Kim Bailey describes his charge as having ' the makings of an interesting novice chaser'.

Champagne Court has to concede seven pounds to his rival and wears a tongue-tie for the first time.

At Kempton on Boxing Day Simply The Betts finished second and On The Slopes third (behind Commanche Red); that form reads well and the pair look closely matched again - On The Slopes lost second spot on the run-in.

Racing Post top-rated Sully D'Oc AA has caught my attention at a price.

I'm just a little bit wary about putting up horses owned by J P McManus - if fancied, the price disappears pretty quickly; the alternative would leave you to believe the horse isn't necessarily fancied at all. All that said, here's Anthony Honeyball's comments in the Straight from the Stable feature in the Weekender [18-22.12.19]:

"...he's a lovely big specimen of a horse. He loves his work at home and is always doing his best to please.

"...his second to the well-handicapped Fanion D'Estruval [subsequently fifth in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton] at Newbury last month was much more like it. I was very happy he didn't get put up for that run and he now heads to Ascot or Exeter next week. He's in grand order and I feel it would be good to get a third run into him while we can, which would mean he then qualifies for any handicap we choose."

Sully finished fifth behind Greaneteen at Ascot and tomorrow's race is the handicap connections have chosen. The gelding holds an each-way chance on that Newbury form and I'm prepared to forgive the latest run at Ascot.

At the time of writing Paddy Power offer 20/1 and pay one fifth the odds four places; Sully D'Oc AA is the each-way suggestion.

John Constable (1776-1837) is famous for his landscapes of the Suffolk countryside; his namesake runs in the finale at 4.10.

As I pointed out just three weeks ago before his latest run at Sandown, it seems barely believable that Evan Williams' charge finished four and a half lengths adrift of My Tent Or Yours in the International Hurdle off a mark of 156 just over two years ago.

I've been waiting for some small, barely perceptible, sign of improvement and thought I'd spotted something on his penultimate run here in December where he finished just under ten lengths behind Repetitio.

The handicapper dropped him three pounds to a mark of 127 for that effort and has since dropped him a further four pounds (123) after he failed to get involved in that Sandown race dominated by Totterdown and eventually won by Mill Green.

I'm prepared to forgive that one and with trainer's daughter Isabel able to claim a further seven pounds, he is effectively running off a mark of 116.

He wouldn't be the most consistent  but connections have been particularly patient and the yard is in good form at present (5 wins from 23 runs in past fortnight). Betway offer 16/1 and pay one fifth the odds four places.

John Constable is the second, more tentative, each-way suggestion.

Heach-way double, hanyone?

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Two longshots and two also-rans, both finishing sixth.

Sent off a 10/1 chance Sully D'Oc AA was given a hold-up ride and made up his ground from four out. In fourth place at the penultimate flight, he was unable to get close to the principals, stumbled at the final fence and faded into sixth up the hill. Simply The Betts (11/2) and Imperial Aura (5/1f) fought out the finish, the former claiming the spoils while conceding four pounds to the market leader.

Backed in to 8/1 John Constable was held up and made late headway but never had the pace to trouble to the leaders; he finished sixth, beaten some twelve and a quarter lengths. I'm just wondering whether he might be seen to better effect on better ground but it would appear the cat's out of the bag now...