Friday, November 08, 2019

Caught in two minds...

I'm going to start this evening's post by saying that at 16/1 (18/1 in a couple of places) I think Bigmartre looks a big price for tomorrow's 2.05 at Aintree.

I'm prepared to forgive his effort in the Old Roan a fortnight ago on the back of these comments by trainer Harry Whittington in this week's Weekender:

"...his jumping is his strength and he had no chance when they took out all those fences [on account of the low sun].  Basically it turned into a speed test and I knew it wouldn't suit him. He jumped great and was always in a good position at his fences, but Page [Fuller] never got a chance to fill him up as they were going too fast. She did a great job, though, as she looked after him... I'd expect him to run well."

Ten are declared and the top four in the betting all make their seasonal reappearance; Cepage's second behind Frodon in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup last December - War Sound a distant tenth - obviously catches the eye.

The favourite has failed to oblige in each of the past ten renewals while in the same timeframe the winner has been aged between seven and nine.

A number in the field don't have an awful lot of experience over the larger obstacles; for me Riders Onthe Storm and The West's Awake in particular have questions to answer in the jumping department.

In 2018 Duke Street won a Worcester novices' chase off a mark of 130 but tomorrow goes off a mark of 141 following two victories over the smaller obstacles. War Sound won last year's renewal but tries this time weeks short of his eleventh birthday.

Bigmartre is just one pound inferior to top-rated War Sound on RP ratings but... he has proved hard to catch right in the past.

Over at Wincanton fourteen have been declared for the feature race of the day, the Badger Beers Silver Trophy Handicap Chase. A number of fancied sorts failed to make the overnight declaration stage, presumably on account of the good ground, with the result the prices about potential selections have contracted sharply.

Present Man has won the past two renewals and tomorrow attempts to win the race for a record-breaking third time.

Sumkindofking chased home the winner twelve months ago and finished fourth behind Wandrin Star here thirteen days ago. The Colin Tizzard trained White Moon appeared to have the spoils in the bag that day when he stumbled and fell after the last. Beau Du Brizais ran a very respectable trial in second; on revised terms he looks weighted to confirm form with Sumkindofking (whose regular pilot Jonathan Burke rides up at Aintree).

Just A Sting from the Harry Fry yard was one of those of interest earlier in the week but the price has long since disappeared.

The Philip Hobbs trained pair Rock The Kasbah and Beau Du Brisais remain of interest. The former has a decent enough record when fresh and will appreciate underfoot conditions if the rain keeps away but he can be hard to catch right - William Hill and Bet Victor offer 11/1 at the time of writing.

Stablemate Beau Du Brisais is priced 18/1 with both Paddy Power and Bet Victor who pay one fifth the odds four places.

Aintree or Wincanton? Bigmartre or Beau Du Brisais?

In the hope this hasn't come up a tad too quickly, Beau Du Brisais is the each-way suggestion.


Anonymous said...

Worryingly, for you, we are singing of the same hymn sheet in the Badger Beers Silver Trophy. I do not think Beau Du Brizais has too much in hand off his current mark, but he should run his race and may cope better with any changes to the going following this morning’s predicted rain than others. I too jumped in at 18/1 [4plcs 1/5 odds] but see he is available at 20/1 this morning for 3 places. White Moon did not look to be stopping LTO but the trip is still of some concern.

I also took 18/1 about Misty Bloom in the Mares Handicap Hurdle; she has 9l to find with Organdi from earlier this month, but she looks progressive and taking everything in to account is around 19lbs better off today. Now 16/1 she still looks a decent bet to me and is my main interest today.

I skipped Bigmarte’s race; Duke Street ticked a lot of the right boxes but as you say that 141 mark looks an issue.

Good luck.


GeeDee said...

Fingers crossed, TW!

GeeDee said...

Give Me A Copper (5/1jf) held the fast-finishing Soupy Soups (10/1) a neck at Wincanton with Royal Vacation (16/1) third and Just A Sting (5/1jf) fourth.

Selection Beau Du Brisais (20/1) raced prominently on the inside rail for much of the trip but couldn't keep tabs on the principals up the home straight; Philip Hobbs' charge stayed on at the same pace to finish fifth, just under ten lengths behind the winner - a respectable effort.

If I thought 16/1 was a big price about Bigmartre last night, the 25/1 SP looked a cause for some concern. Harry Whittington's charge jumped well enough at the head of affairs but the gelding came to the end of his tether before they'd come out of the back straight. He finished sixth, some 25 lengths behind impressive winner Riders Onthe Storm (4/1jf) who held Cepage (4/1jf) one and threequarter lengths on the line. To win in this manner on his debut in this country, Riders Onthe Storm, formerly with Tom Taaffe, will now be most notebooks.

Finally, congratulations to regular contributor TW who secured 18/1 about Misty Bloom for the mares' hurdle at Wincanton.

TW wrote:

"...she has 9l to find with Organdi from earlier this month, but she looks progressive and taking everything in to account is around 19lbs better off today."

With Organdi a non-runner, Misty Bloom was backed in to 9/2 and, staying on strongly, she had put the race to bed before the penultimate flight.

Now that's what I call a good value bet...

Anonymous said...

Now that's what I call a good value bet...

I think I’d call it a “once in blue moon type of bet…..”

For much of the race I was hopeful that Beau Du Brisais would make one of those 4 paying places; however his mark is possibly about right now.


GeeDee said...

Couldn't lend me a fiver, could you, TW?