Friday, July 20, 2018

Market Rasen midsummer madness 2018

When Alcala held Wadswick Court with a hint of more to come in last year's Summer Plate (Days Of Heaven seventh), the winner's name went straight into the notebook - in capital letters.

Twelve months later Wadswick Court is on a mark ten pounds higher for tomorrow's Market Rasen feature (3.15) while Paul Nicholls' charge, set to carry top weight, is rated just one pound higher which tells a story all of its own - mostly about the sort of stuff you're likely to encounter in my racing notebook.

Five weeks ago stablemate Bagad Bihoue beat Alcala three and a half lengths at Newton Abbot with Viconte Du Noyer a nose adrift in third and Days Of Heaven pulled up following a howler at the ninth. On the revised terms there wouldn't be an awful lot between the first three home while I've suffered burned fingers with the rather misleadingly-named Days Of Heaven in the past.

Shantou Village can boast some decent form but has been out of sorts of late - Paul Kealy advertises his chance in the Weekender - while Cut The Corner's second to Starchitect last November reads well but this race has gone the way of a younger horse in the preceding five years.

Callet Mad, owned by Simon Munir and Issac Suede, has mixed hurdling and chasing to good effect to date and his chance is respected, as is that of More Buck's, now trained by Peter Bowen who is known to regularly target this event.

Of the two at the bottom of the handicap Too Many Diamonds looks to have improved following wind surgery with three wins recorded at Southwell but this race asks a different question altogether; Not A Role Model could be anything and makes more appeal for those seeking an each-way wager.

Yes, there's more than a hint of midsummer madness in the air - I blame the present heatwave - but I'm going to take an each-way interest in Viconte Du Noyer (12/1 Paddy Power, a fifth the odds four places).

I'm hoping that, on revised terms, Colin Tizzard's charge can challenge the Nicholls' pair at the head of the market and that the fitting of first-time cheekpieces can eke out a little further improvement.


Anonymous said...

A competitive renewal of the Summer Plate and my system has highlighted 3 potential value bets in Seefood, Not A Role Model and Cut The Corner. Seefood could be very well handicapped but as an 11yo coming back from 470 days off he’s over-looked. No reason why Cut The Corner should not run his race with the jockey’ 5lb claim off-setting the 5lb rating rise but in the end I’ve opted for the lightly raced Not A Role Model at 25/1 [Bet365 3 places ¼ odds]. He should still be improving so must have at least a few lbs in hand and I like the look of his speed ratings.

Lawrence Taylor Speed Rating [At The Races]

Horse, Best, Lto, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th
Not A Role Model, 117, 117, 87, 111, 105, (63), (56)
Sumkindofking, 115, 115, 94, 82, (73), (98), (91)
More Buck's, 109, 61, 109, 57, 59, --, --
Cut The Corner, 108, 78, 92, 100, 97, --, 108

LTO Speed: Not A Role Model 117 Sumkindofking 115 Alcala 102

Peruvien Blue can run a big race in the Summer Hurdle at odds around 25/1.

Good Luck!


162,BAGAD BIHOUE(FR),10.24,9.8
160,NOT A ROLE MODEL(IRE),9.6,10.5,[26.0]
162,CALETT MAD(FR),8.25,12.5
162,CUT THE CORNER(IRE),7.34,14,[29.0]
163,VICONTE DU NOYER(FR),6.85,15
160,MORE BUCK'S(IRE),5.09,20
161,DAYS OF HEAVEN(FR),3.98,26
155,BRIAN BORANHA(IRE),2.13,48

GeeDee said...

Thanks for ratings, TW - profuse apologies for the late publication.

GeeDee said...

The first-time cheekpieces on Viconte Du Noyer (14/1) appeared more of a hindrance than a help as the selection looked lit up from the off and raced in fourth with the choke out for much of the trip. Unsurprisingly, he started to lose his position coming out of the back straight on the final circuit and trailed in a disappointing twelfth, beaten the best part of 40 lengths.

Mixed emotions for Peter Bowen after this year's Plate - More Buck's (6/1), with son Sean up, held Too Many Diamonds (7/1) half a length in a duel after the last to collect the spoils but the trainer's other runner Wadswick Court was fatally injured in a nasty fall at the fifth in which handler's son James looked to have sustained an injury. I've seen an unofficial report this evening that James is OK.

Shantou Village (11/1) finished eight lengths behind in third with Not a Role Model (14/1) fourth.