Thursday, April 12, 2018

Aintree 2018 - Friday

Pressed for time, I'm afraid, so just one tentative suggestion for Ladies' Day.

The Albert Bartlett at last month's Festival is the key piece of form for the Doom Bar Sefton Novices' Hurdle at 4.40.

Ok Corral finished second behind 33/1 winner Kilbricken Storm at Cheltenham with more fancied stablemate Santini third that day, Tower Bridge fifth, Poetic Rhythm tenth and Chef Des Obeaux pulled up. There's a general feeling a number in the field didn't run to their best on the day.

Poetic Rhythm is of interest at an each-way price.

Paddy Brennan didn't give his mount a hard time after the chance had gone at Cheltenham; prior to that the gelding, owned by The Yes No Wait Sorries, fought back to pip Mulcahys Hill on heavy ground over two miles four and a half furlongs in the Challow at Newbury.

That form reads well and the stable now appears to be emerging from a quiet spell (RTF figure for past fortnight: 56%); on Racing Post ratings Fergal O'Brien's charge is there with every chance.

Sky Bet offer 14/1 and are paying one fifth the odds four places.

Poetic Rhythm is the each-way selection.

Global Citizen looked very impressive winning the Dovecote at Kempton seven weeks ago; it's no surprise to see him marked up favourite for the Betway Top Novices' Hurdle at 2.20.

Two of my Cheltenham selections reappear here; Vision Des Flos steps back in trip having finished sixth behind Samcro in the Ballymore while Slate House took a crunching fall at the last in the Supreme.

Scarlet Dragon is short enough in the market for one lacking experience; rated 108 on the Flat, he finished nine lengths behind Global Citizen on his hurdling debut.

I've seen Style De Garde tipped up here and there and it's easy enough to see Irish Roe in the mix if you forgive the mare her last run in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury where a mistake at the second flight appeared to cost her her chance; an interesting renewal which should prove useful for future reference.   


Anonymous said...

Poetic Rhythm (PR) tops my system output so we are, almost, singing off the same hymn sheet! However, the system has flagged concerns over the 3m trip for PR and this has prevented me from taking an interest.

Santini and OK Coral both look capable of winning but priced too short. Interestingly, to me anyway, my system is highlighting that Barry Geraghty as being out of sorts [only 12% running to form].

Chef Des Obeaux was pulled up in the Albert Bartlett but he might bounce back here and if he were to drift to 14/1+ I might show some interest.

167,POETIC RHYTHM(IRE),21.19,4.8
163,OK CORRAL(IRE),14.54,7
165,CHEF DES OBEAUX(FR),14.46,7
160,TOWER BRIDGE(IRE),6.85,15

I’m having a 1PT EW punt (10/1 1,2,3,4 ¼ odds) on Spiritofthegames in the opener. The more fancied of the yard’s runners he ran a decent enough race when finishing 6th in the County Handicap behind stable mate Mohaayed. He still has scope to improve, Bridget Andrews claims 3lbs today and the step back up in trip should suit. There’s not a lot of juice in the odds but he looks set to run a big race.

159,WHO DARES WINS(IRE),5.92,17
160,LOUGH DERG SPIRIT(IRE),5.86,17.5
161,WILDE BLUE YONDER(IRE),5.22,19.5

Good luck.


Anonymous said...

5mm of rain so far at Aintree and the going has been updated to:-

Mildmay & Hurdle - Soft National - Heavy, Soft in places (GoingStick: Mildmay & Hurdle 5.0 National 3.9 on Friday at 10:00)

The Betway Top Novices' Hurdle is now down to 13 runners with Irish Roe & Simply The Betts non-runners. The system has this race between Vision Des Flos, Global Citizen and Style De Garde [70% chance that one of them will win]. A bit too early to say how good a renewal this year’s Fred Winter was but Style De Garde finished 2nd in it which reads quite well in the context of this race, the easing ground should not present a problem and Nicky Henderson has a fine record in the race. A negative could be SDG’s age (last 4yo to win was 2008) but at odds of 10/1 I'll take a 1PT EW interest [3 places ¼ odds].

166,VISION DES FLOS(FR),31.9,3.15
164,GLOBAL CITIZEN(IRE),19.57,5.2
165,STYLE DE GARDE(FR),19.3,5.2


GeeDee said...

Thanks for your updates, TW. Interested to see your current system rating B. Geraghty at just 12%.

With the softening ground, I must check to see what odds layers offer on number of finishers in the National.


Anonymous said...

The rain looks to have past over now and it is set to stay dry until after the big race. Worth taking a look at the updated going map which might suggest that it should not be desperate conditions.


GeeDee said...

Poetic Rhythm was a non-runner, withdrawn on account of the ground.

In the event 6/4 favourite Santini beat Roksana (9/1) one and a half lengths with Tower Bridge (8/1) a further six lengths behind in third. Of the thirteen starters only seven finished with the remaining six all pulled up.