Friday, October 20, 2017

Heaven - or hell?

The wet and windy weather forecast will certainly have an affect on tomorrow's QIPCO Champions Day at Ascot but it's likely to prove far more problematic for Ffos Las where The New One, Clyne and Sire De Grugy are amongst the declarations for the Ladbrokes Welsh Champion Hurdle at 4.25.

Amateur Mr Zak Baker picks up the ride on The New One and can claim five; regular pilot Sam Twiston-Davies is on duty at Stratford. Now eleven, Sire De Grugy's best days are probably in the past but here he races off a hurdles mark of just 147 - his chase mark is 165. His price has fluctuated noticeably - a 7/2 shot mid-afternoon, Gary Moore's charge is quoted 6/1 at the time of writing. Bottom weight Remiluc races from out of the handicap but is the only one with a recent run to his name.

West Approach, third behind Unowhatimeanharry in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in January, makes his debut over the larger obstacles in the Ladbrokes Download The App Beginners' Chase at 3.20. Barry Geraghty is aboard Brelan D'As for owner J P McManus.

The uncertainty over the weather tempers enthusiasm for a wager, particularly at this early stage of the season.

Bristol De Mai was exceptional at the beginning of the year when he destroyed his field in the Peter Marsh at Haydock but subsequently his jumping wasn't up to scratch behind Native River at Newbury and he then finished 20 lengths behind Sizing John in the Gold Cup. Tomorrow he picks up the trail at a far less exalted level in the totepool Live Info Download The App Handicap Chase (3.00 Stratford). He's only six but seems to have been around for ever; in seasons past he has needed the first run.

Paul Nicholls' Roman De Senam is a warm order to come home in front having won convincingly at Chepstow six days ago. Aged just five, he has won two of his eight chase starts but I feel this is more competitive than the market would have us believe.

Nicky Henderson's Days Of Heaven is a big price and is of some interest although the ground is softer than ideal - essentially he wants good ground and currently the official going is described as good to soft.

This one was beaten some 14 lengths into seventh behind Alcala in the Market Rasen Summer Plate back in July; a few were slightly disappointed with that effort - the form book notes the gelding 'gave problems beforehand' - and he faded approaching the last.

He has won previously at this track and goes off a mark one pound lower; I feel there may be more to come and that makes the 16/1 on offer tempting.

Essentially I want the wind to dry the track out, the rain to stay away. The BBC's weather forecast predicts a dry sunny morning with rain arriving mid-afternoon.

Provided it rides no worse than good to soft and the eight make it to post, I intend to take a small early season each-way interest in Days Of Heaven.             


Anonymous said...

FWIW my system output for the race is:

RTG Horse WC Fair Odds
177 BRISTOL DE MAI(FR) 26.71% 3.74
174 ROMAIN DE SENAM(FR) 21.26% 4.70
179 WALK IN THE MILL(FR) 20.87% 4.79
171 DAYS OF HEAVEN(FR) 11.69% 8.55
171 DRESDEN(IRE) 10.02% 9.98
172 VOIX D'EAU(FR) 7.74% 12.91
166 BURTONS WELL(IRE) 1.7% 58.82

Bristol De Mai, with a Win Chance (WC) of 26.71%, is thought the most likely winner by the system but decimal odds of around 4.5 do not provide any real edge and Romain De Senam’s odds look a fair bit short than they should be.

There does appear to be a squeak of value still in Days Of Heaven at 12.0 but perhaps the best value in the race is Walk In The Mill (11.0 against system fair odds of 4.79). This lightly raced 7yo won 1st time out last term and then followed up of a mark of 126. Struggled in 2 subsequent races off higher marks but back down to 134 today and perhaps he is best caught fresh?

Down to a field of 7 after the withdrawal of Sametegal it’s a race I’ll sit out but best of luck if you do decide to play.


GeeDee said...

Thanks for the ratings, TW. As you point out, Walk In The Mill looks good on these figures - best-price is 10/1 at the moment and he's as low as 17/2 with bet365.

The weather here has played its part and been much as predicted but effectively the withdrawal of Sametegal made the decision for me - I'll adopt the 'interested observer' role and watch from the sidelines.

Thanks again for the providing your ratings.


GeeDee said...

From Hotel California (Eagles):

"And I was thinking to myself
'This could be heaven or this could be hell'"

With my early decision to abstain following the withdrawal of Sametegal, in the event a curious state of purgatory prevailed; Bristol De Mail was an additional non-runner (unsuitable ground - good to soft, good in places).

Days Of Heaven (7/1) jumped well at the head of affairs but succumbed to the challengers approaching the final flight. He finished fourth of the six runners, beaten some six and a quarter lengths behind the favourite Romain De Senam (4/5f).

I guess that's as good as he is.