Friday, January 06, 2017

Sandown veterans

I've been on the lookout for a young unexposed type in the 32Red Veterans' Handicap Chase at Sandown tomorrow but haven't had that much luck... Aerial from the Nicholls yard has the fewest miles on the clock with five wins recorded from nineteen runs.

These vets, they're an absolute credit to the game.

Top weight Shuil Royale boasts the best career wins-to-runs ratio in the field at 30.3% while just three record a figure lower than 15%; in 2011 Cody Wyoming won a Lingfield maiden hurdle at odds of 100/1 and currently shows a profit of £86.45 to a £1.00 stake.

In fact twelve of the runners boast a profit to level stakes - if only they'd given me this list of horses eight years ago...

Of course, with over £100,000 in added prize money, tomorrow's renewal is highly competitive - Aachen, beaten a neck by Soll last year, tries once again at the grand old age of thirteen.

In working through the form, I've discarded the four horses that have not previously won over three miles or more (Astracad, Ericht, Baileys Concerto and Cody Wyoming) and have then looked at the Scotty Brand Veterans' Handicap Chase, the last qualifying leg of the series, run over 22 furlongs at Kelso in early December.

That day Gas Line Boy made most to beat Cloudy Too (second), Aerial (fourth), Wychwoods Brook (fifth) and Dynaste (seventh). Ratings for that race and tomorrow's are compared below:

Gas Line Boy          was 136  now 145
Cloudy Too             was 142  now 140
Aerial                      was 135  now 134
Wychwoods Brook was 132  now 130
Dynaste                  was 150  now 145

I'm not inclined to take the Kelso form too literally. Dynaste never turned up, Wychwoods Brook was making his seasonal debut and there's a possibility Brian Hughes may have pinched the race up front over a shorter trip on slightly better ground.

Of those named above, it's hard to be confident about Dynaste and he's short enough in the market (comments that apply to Rocky Creek too).

Wychwoods Brook has a Peter Marsh Chase to his name and jockey James Nixon can claim seven but he hasn't always been the cleanest of jumpers so the 2016 Peter Marsh Chase winner Cloudy Too (14/1 generally) is the each-way selection with Aerial feared. Rain would certainly help the selection -  most layers are paying a quarter the odds four places.

Capitaine is my idea of the Tolworth winner but the race makes little appeal as a betting medium.

Over at Wincanton, Oneida Trial, mentioned in last week's post, goes in the 1.30 but the price - 12/1 with Paddy Power - doesn't really tempt on what we know so far while Daryl Jacob has a word for Fortunate George in the 3.15; Daryl travels to the track from Sandown after riding Midnight Jazz in the mares' listed hurdle.


Anonymous said...

I found it hard to find any real value in the veterans race but the rain has arrived for Cloudy Too so I hope he runs well.

I’m also hoping you have named another winner in your post in the form of Midnight Jazz. Desert Queen is back over hurdles after falling last time out, Briery Queen has a 4lb penalty and needs to step up again, Lifeboat Mona is clearly progressive and represents a real danger but this is her toughest task to date. Midnight Jazz is the most exposed in the field but has been running very well this term, Daryl thinks it worth the effort to ride her, conditions should suit and whilst far from a certain winner I feel she is over priced at 7/1 so I’ve place a small win only investment.

Good luck.


Anonymous said...

ITV racing much better today! Matt Chapman seemed to have calmed down considerably which was most welcome. A vast improvement - now to sort out the graphics!

GeeDee said...

A brave effort from selection Cloudy Too (8/1) who raced in second behind long-time leader Loose Chips for much of the trip. The petrol gauge started to touch the empty marker three from home and a tired jump at the last, veering badly right, allowed Kelso conqueror Gas Line Boy (7/1) to pinch fourth place.

The spoils went to 20/1 chance Pete The Feat, the other thirteen year old in the field. Jock Aidan Coleman paid tribute to the horse's enthusiasm after the race, saying he didn't ride like a thirteen year old, more like a four year old! Marvellous stuff.