Friday, October 14, 2016

A teatime tip

Tesco's online customers may have struggled to get their PG Tips recently; I'm happy to report there have been no such problems here...

The continuing dry weather has meant that a number of high profile horses are set to miss intended engagements this weekend but at the time of writing the Nicky Henderson trained pair - My Tent Or Yours and Hargam - are both declared for the Listed Hurdle at Kempton on Sunday.

I put up Lil Rockerfeller for last week's Silver Trophy at Chepstow but in the event Neil King;s inmate wasn't allowed to take his chance and connections have opted not to run in this Saturday's Welsh Champion Hurdle (Ffos Las 4.10).

Welsh Shadow, trained by the in-form Dan Skelton and owned by Dai Walters, heads the market and has been talked up over the summer but this is no walk in the park; Garde La Victoire may have struggled over the larger obstacles towards the end of last season but he sets a very high standard.

Regular readers will know that last season Johnny Og, after foiling a cunning plan of mine, went on to right that particular wrong by obliging at a nice price in a Newbury novices' chase.

Martin Keighley's charge held a five-day entry for tomorrow's totequadpot Four Places In Four Races Handicap Chase (Stratford 3.15), worth over £15,000 to the winner. Johnny boasts previous winning form at the course but he hasn't been declared, presumably on account of the ground.

All of which led me to take a closer look at this race.

Gordon Elliott sends over Mountain King from Ireland; this one heads the market but I've noted that four of his five wins have come at right-handed tracks (Perth twice, Ludlow and Ascot one apiece) while his Warwick win in 2013 was in a bumper.

Both No Likey and Roman Flight have been busy over the summer - Roman Flight has had no less than ten runs since early May. At the age of eleven What A Laugh is probably past his best and No Buts has done most of his racing on soft ground which leaves Mont Royale and Top Cat Henry as potential plays against the favourite.

The former, owned by Phil Tufnell Racing Limited, won a Class 3 event at Worcester the last day and as a result has a seven pound penalty to carry.

Last year Top Cat Henry won a handicap chase at Fontwell before finishing threequarters of a length second to Carrigmorna King in this race; connections have opted to follow the same route again this year.

Henry looked unlucky when being badly hampered and brought down by eventual winner Antony at Fontwell a fortnight ago; the silver lining is he starts off a mark four pounds higher than last year.

With Dr Richard Newland's current win strike rate over 24%, Top Cat Henry, generally a 7/2 shot, is the suggested play against the favourite.

In the event he obliges, the teas are on me. Every little helps.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Those who thought Roman Flight (8/1) would be 'over the top' on his eleventh run since early May were proven wrong in no uncertain terms. David Dennis' charge went clear four from home and quickly put the race to bed.

Selection Top Cat Henry was eventually sent off 3/1 favourite; he battled with Gordon Elliott's Mountain King (4/1) for second but the latter prevailed by one and a half lengths. Roman Flight had flown though, finishing some sixteen lengths ahead of the pair fighting for the minor placings.

I'm off to put the kettle on.