I'm considering a wager in the West Wales National at Ffos Las tomorrow (3.15) but at the back of my mind I can hear Sir Anthony McCoy OBE saying something along the lines of 'there's heavy and there's Ffos Las heavy'.
And the weather forecast looks decidedly grim too.
Rebecca Curtis fields four of the seven declared; last year her Bob Ford finished in splendid isolation to collect the spoils at odds of 16/1 with eight of the nine opponents failing to complete.
There are some notable differences to take into account for this year's renewal: Bob Ford is set to carry top weight and is currently priced up favourite; the gelding looked to have a hard enough race and had probably come to the end of his tether when falling four out in the Welsh National at Chepstow last month; the distance of the race has been shortened by three furlongs.
Stablemate Red Devil Lads doesn't jump well enough for my liking while Audacious Plan would prefer better ground (and has the Kim Muir as his target) which suggests connections may consider Minella On Line their best chance of a repeat victory.
Cogry failed to fire when sent off favourite for the Welsh National; if you can forgive that particular effort, he has form in the book - his two and a quarter lengths fourth to Sausalito Sunrise at the Cheltenham Open meeting catches the eye. He has won on heavy ground before - but this is Ffos Las heavy. And he did appear to get stuck in the mud last time...
5/1 Minella On Line is tempting but Jamie Bargary can claim five on Cogry; Cogry (3/1) is given another chance.
It's unusual to see two top-notch novice chases within twenty minutes of one another. On paper Sandown's Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (2.25) looks between Tea For Two and Bristol de Mai but the Towton Novices' Chase at Wetherby (2.45) is a far more open affair.
Definitly Red did well to finish so close to Black Hercules at Warwick the last day as he was persistently out-jumped by the winner. Blaklion is a horse I like who will be suited by the step back up to three miles here but Native River was slightly disappointing behind Tea For Two in the Feltham - connections felt Kempton's right-handed track didn't suit their charge. Harry Fry's mare Bitofapuzzle fell last time over in Ireland but poses a serious threat to all.
Back going left-handed, Native River (7/2) is the selection.
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Ffos Las was abandoned while the jockeys described conditions at Wetherby as 'just about raceable'.
Brendan Powell made plenty of use of Native River (11/4) racing upsides early leaders Kingswell Theatre and Bitofapuzzle (9/4f). On a couple of occasions the selection had to be ridden to keep his place, receiving a couple of reminders here and there, but he was outpaced up the home straight with the finish fought out by the two that had been held up. Blaklion (4/1) beat Definitly Red (3/1) eight lengths with the selection a further ten lengths adrift in third.
Before racing handler Colin Tizzard had said the outcome of this race would determine whether they went for the RSA or the four mile chase with Native River; on the back of this I'm guessing they'll opt for the four mile chase while the winner will go for the RSA.
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