Friday, April 10, 2015

Aintree Grand National 2015

A. P. McCoy's final Grand National ride is Shutthefrontdoor.

The horse is certain to be overbet, start favourite and provide no value whatsoever but should the champion jockey achieve the improbable and go on to win, he is likely to retire on the spot while the bookmaking industry collectively will huddle in a corner calculating losses on an unprecedented scale.

The race has thrown up some big-priced winners in recent times including Silver Birch at 33/1 in 2007; Mon Mome at 100/1 in 2009; Neptune Collonges at 33/1 in 2012; Auroras Encore at 66/1 in 2013; and Pineau De Re at 25/1 last year.

Stats suggest the winner will be aged between nine and twelve and carry no more than 11-5. I tend to prefer horses that have shown form over these fences previously - six of the first seven home last year try again tomorrow and feature in the selections below.

1. Rocky Creek
Fifth last year. Pulled up in the Hennessy in November and then underwent a breathing operation. Returned to win the BetBright Chase at Kempton in some style - with the National weights already declared, he's now considered nine pounds 'well in'.

2. Balthazar King
Second in 2014. Ran in the Glenfarcas Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival before coming to Aintree last year so this time connections have wisely missed Cheltenham to arrive here fresh. Likes to race with the pace and will appreciate drying ground.

3. Alvarado
Made up plenty of ground in the closing stages to finish fourth last year and looks to have been trained specifically for this - has a nice racing weight. Jockey Paul Maloney boasts an excellent completion record in the race and will be keen to ensure he's close enough to land a blow this time around.

4. Saint Are
Came home ninth in the 2013 renewal and finished third behind Oscar Time in the Becher Chase in December - best long-priced outsider.

Others worthy of a mention include:

Al Co who looks to have every chance on his Scottish National win last year but ran poorly over these fences behind Oscar Time and Saint Are in December - it may have been the very soft ground that day but he's not the biggest of individuals and the suspicion remains he may struggle in the jumping department.

Spring Heeled who has been trained specifically for the race but stable form is the main concern.

And finally last year's winner Pineau De Re who looks reasonable value at 25/1; at the age of twelve it's difficult to see him winning again off a mark eight pounds higher.

Good luck!  

Postscript: At time of writing, Bet Victor each-way terms a quarter the odds six places; Paddy Power, bet365 and Sky Bet amongst those paying five places.


GeeDee said...
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GeeDee said...

Gold Cup sixth Many Clouds (25/1) won the 2015 Grand National.

Popular form choice Rocky Creek (8/1) may have been nine pounds well in but he ran as though he was nine pounds wrong. Jockey Twiston-Davies gave his mount every chance but it was clear a long way out he wasn't travelling and he went backwards quickly after Becher's on the second circuit. Connections reported their charge had lost a shoe in the race.

Balthazar King (17/2) took an ugly-looking fall at the Canal Turn on the first circuit, bringing down Ballycasey in the process. The horse was down for an awfully long time and, with the screens erected, many feared the worst but the gelding eventually rose to his feet - connections reported he had been kicked in the ribs by another runner.

Alvarado (20/1) ran a race similar to last year staying on at the death to take fourth spot and relegate McCoy on favourite Shutthefrontdoor(6/1f) to fifth.

Saint Are (25/1) was prominent throughout but couldn't get to the winner after the last beaten one and threequarter lengths into second with Monbeg Dude (40/1) third.

Spare a thought for Aidan Coleman aboard The Druids Nephew (10/1)who looked to have the measure of the eventual winner at Valentines on the second circuit but slithered to the ground at the next.

Jr. Williams said...

Grand National and GNX! any difference?
aintree national