...is a winning wager.
The thing is, with time at a premium at this time of year, it's unlikely I've found one on Ascot's Christmas card.
Still, for those interested, here are some suggested plays against likely Ascot favourites that it would be wise not to take too seriously.
1.15 David Johnson Shawbrook Bank Graduation Chase
Irish Saint didn't convince when finishing third behind stablemate Vibrato Valtat in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown a fortnight ago.
Puffin Billy was allowed an easy lead when beating Killala Quay at this course the last day; the runner up did nothing for the form when well beaten at Doncaster last week.
Thomas Crapper was probably flattered to finish within a length of Vibrato Valtat on his penultimate start but in the main has jumped well.
Suggestion: Puffin Billy (2/1 generally).
2.25 JLT Long Walk Hurdle
Zarkandar is the selection on ratings; this trip on soft ground isn't ideal.
Things fell right for Medinas the last day; they may well do again but I don't want to bet on it.
Reve De Sivola won last year's renewal but has been out of form recently; this will be the first time he encounters underfoot conditions to suit this term.
Pilot Lizzie Kelly can't use her claim on Aubusson while the Pipe yard has openly stated the ground will not help Dell'Arca's cause.
Suggestion: Reve De Sivola (9/2 generally).
3.00 Mappin & Webb Silver Cup Handicap Chase
In January The Young Master won handicap hurdles at Fakenham and Sedgefield off a mark of 103. Impressive when winning the Badger Ales at Wincanton last month, he was subsequently disqualified on a technicality but still has to start tomorrow's race on 144.
Houblon Des Obeaux won this last year, has conditions to suit and another seven pounds to carry; ran a huge race at odds of 50/1 to finish second in the Hennessy three weeks ago.
Some money for the bottom three; both Ardkilly Witness and Polisky race from out of the handicap.
Suggestion: Houblon Des Obeaux (4/1 generally)
Each-way alternative: Hey Big Spender (14/1).
3.30 The Ladbroke
Two each-way longshots against the field in this ultra-competitive handicap...
Garde La Victoire won the Greatwood in some style last month but has been raised nine pounds for his trouble. Has to concede at least seven pounds to all his rivals so realistically he entertains place prospects at best (16/1 SkyBet paying 5 places).
Swing Bowler's fifth, beaten four lengths behind Splash Of Ginge in Newbury's Betfair Hurdle, reads well. I have a soft spot for David Pipe's mare who probably won't appreciate Ascot's stiff finish but on the plus side has run well after a break previously and Kieron Edgar's five pounds claim means she'll carry 10-11 (28/1 SkyBet paying 5 places).
With the in-laws due to arrive next week, I may well be 'hoping beyond hope' with these selections but indulge me - this and the King George on Boxing Day is all I have to look forward to.
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Reve De Sivola (13/2) granted the Christmas wish, rallying after the last to beat Zarkander (4/6f) a head in the Long Walk Hurdle.
Puffin Billy (7/4) didn't jump well and fell at the last after a couple of serious errors had taken their toll - Irish Saint (6/5f) collected the spoils.
The Young Master (3/1f) put in an impressive performance for a five-year-old to collect the Silver Cup with Houblon Des Obeaux (9/2) running most respectably in second but unable to concede the progressive winner 17lbs. Hey Big Spender (14/1) looked booked for at least a place when moving into second off the home turn but he could only stay on at the same pace and lost two places up the hill finishing fourth.
In The Ladbroke Garde La Victoire (14/1) made a place in fifth but Swing Bowler (25/1) never went a yard and was being pushed along after the first furlong - the mare came home a tailed off fifteenth.
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