Friday, May 31, 2013

Thoughts on the 2013 Derby day

Twelve go to post for the 2013 Epsom Derby tomorrow, with Aidan O'Brien responsible for five of the field. On ratings Dawn Approach is some way clear of his rivals and is priced accordingly; the query is whether this relaxed individual will stay the trip. Generally the market tends to give a good guide - in the past decade, the winner has come from the first three in the betting on nine occasions.

Maybe I'm getting old, but I'm afarid this year's renewal just hasn't inspired. I'll have a small each-way wager on Galileo Rock (sired by 2001 winner Galileo), priced at 40/1 at the time of writing with Stan James, Bet Victor and bet365.

A couple of jockeys have been in the news this week...

Media coverage of Dettori's return to the saddle earlier today brought to mind the parable of the prodigal son and is likely to appear incongruous to many both inside and outside the sport given the Italian has just served a six-month ban following a positive drugs test.

On Monday it was announced Paul Nicholls was to split with Ruby Walsh. The travelling has been an issue to Walsh for some time - I half expected the announcement this time last year.

On Derby day I like to have a bet on the jumpers, just for the sheer hell of it. The opening seller at Hexham looks trappy so I'll take the chance with Baccalaureate in the competitive-looking handicap hurdle at 3.20. This one ran well on his first run for Sue Smith's yard follwing a long lay-off; he might well 'bounce' this time but the tissue price of 13/2 is tempting...    

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

The Derby betting had the look of a one horse book. 5/4 favourite Dawn Approach wasn't guaranteed to stay the trip but it very quickly became clear he had no hope of staying as the colt struggled for his head and refused to settle. He'd pulled his way to the front five furlongs out but went quickly backwards in the final quarter mile, eventually finishing last.

Ruler Of The World (7/1) took the spoils while selection Galileo Rock (25/1) ran a race that belied his odds, eventually securing third spot, a short head behind Libertarian (14/1) and a short head in front of Battle Of Marengo (11/2).

Over at Hexham there was no fancy price about Baccalaureate but the 11/4 chance made all from the front to win by six lengths.

A return from two selections - long time since I've managed to pull of that particular trick...