Friday, September 14, 2012

St Leger 2012

Tomorrow many will be hoping for a fairy-tale ending as Camelot bids to become the first horse to win the Triple Crown since Nijinksy performed the feat back in 1970. The layers clearly feel Aidan O'Brien's inmate can take the 235th running of this, the oldest Classic, as they have priced the colt up as 2/5 favourite.

John Gosden and William Buick are looking for a hat-trick of their own, having won the previous two runnings with Arctic Cosmos (12/1) in 2010 and Masked Marvel (15/2) last year. This year Gosden saddles three, Dartford, Michaelangelo and Thought Worthy; the first-named is quoted at 300/1 and will act as a pacemaker. Buick thought long and hard before eventually opting to ride Thought Worthy; Dettori picks up the plum ride on Michaelangelo. The stable jockey explains his choice in today's Times - Michaelangelo has bags of potential but Thought Worthy has the form in the book and in the past has shown a willing attitude when push comes to shove.

A quick look at what happened in the Great Voltiguer is 'de rigueur'. Thought Worthy won that day but many feel Buick nicked the race from the front and will fancy Main Sequence to turn the tables - Encke was third that day and Thomas Chippendale fifth.

Thomas Chippendale would prefer cut underfoot and there's a suspicion the same comment applies to the improving Ursa Major.

Four favourites have obliged in the past decade but none since Sixties Icon obliged at odds of 11/8 in 2006. With Camelot such a short price, I'm going with Buick - Thought Worthy is the each-way selection at 11/1 (William Hill). At the time of writing the following bookmakers are offering each-way terms a quarter the odds  - bet365, Sky Bet, Boylesports, Paddy Power and Ladbrokes.   

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Something of a shock in the Leger with Encke (25/1) upsetting the applecart, beating 2/5 favourite Camelot threequarters of a length.

I followed Buick but, like Buick, I was on the wrong one as 10/1 chance Michaelangelo stayed on for third place while the selection (10/1) took it up three from home but faded in the final furlong to finish sixth.