Those who have followed the blog over the summer months will know I've concentrated on horses with jumps form racing over distances beyond one and a half miles on the Flat; several familiar names are entered up for tomorrow's Cesarewich which is run over two and a quarter miles at Newmarket and is due off at 3.50. Of the 34 declarations, 16 have some type of NH form to their name; they are listed below with brief comments:
Sentry Duty Not the easiest to catch right and IMO better with some cut. Sixth last year;
Veiled Tipped on the blog, took the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Every chance;
Keys In my mind not certain to see out this extended trip;
Dayia 80/1 (Coral) is a big price about Lady Green's brown mare but her best form has been with cut;
My Arch Eighth last year;
La Estrella Done most of his winning in races with no more than 12 runners;
Phoenix Flight Out of sorts after excellent third behind Veiled at Royal Ascot - Coral's 80/1 looks big;
Rainforest Magic Dermot Weld's runner is a potential blot on the handicap - respected;
Braveheart Move Yet to win beyond 13f;
Gifted Leader Laid out for this? 50/1 available;
Palomar Not without talent but for me is one that needs things to fall just right;
Right Stuff Finished last behind Gifted Leader last time out;
Beyond Trainer David Pipe's best chance in the race;
Abergavenny Billy Wallace (The Prophet) makes a case for this one in the Weekender;
Bow To No One Mare finished fourth in the Goodwood Stakes behind Hollins;
Tasheba Beaten over 25 lengths in a Fontwell handicap seven days ago.
General opinion is higher drawn horses are at something of a disadvantage as they will have to race wide around the bend. That being the case Beyond (stall 3) makes most appeal of the market leaders (14/1 with Ladbrokes at the time of writing). For those who must, two outsiders at an each-way price - Gifted Leader (50/1) and Phoenix Flight (80/1).
These days Chepstow's card doesn't get the coverage it once did but the clash between Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti should prove informative. I don't make a habit of betting novices on their first try over the larger obstacles but I prefer Silviniaco Conti, given he's won at the track previously. In the Weekender West Country correspondent Andrew King reports Nicholls' charge '...has been pleasing in his work at Manor Farm...' Others I fancied on this card have been marked up at rather short prices so I'll keep my powder dry. The going is reported as good to soft, good in places at the Welsh track.
Up at Hexham Chris Bealby's L'Eldorado looks a play against likely favourite Quite The Man in a competitive opener; Chris has a good word for the gelding in a post on his blog this evening.
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Hmmm... so much for a low draw in the Cesarewitch; Dettori took the spoils by making all out of stall 36 on the rather appropriately-named Never Can Tell (25/1). Beyond (10/1) came home seventh, Gifted Leader (40/1) 19th and Phoenix Flight (50/1) 24th.
Silviniaco Conti (11/8) disappointed at Chepstow, having no answer to Cue Card (10/11f); the favourite jumped well for the most part but threw in a couple of stickly leaps on the way round.
At least L'Eldorado (4/1) provided some respite with an all the way win at Hexham - a bigger SP than I'd expected.
I fancied One Term in the concluding bumper at Chepstow (honest) but didn't bother mentioning the fact as the night before some tissue prices had the horse as a short-priced favourite; in the event Rebecca Curtis' charge won nicely at odds of 7/2.
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