Friday, September 16, 2011

Brief notes on selected Saturday races

On Wednesday evening I spent well over an hour on the phone to a fellow racegoer discussing the chances of Tom Dascombe's Misty Conquest in the 2.45 at Ayr. Regular readers will know that six furlong two-year-old sprints aren't my cup of tea at all but the point is this racegoer knows two members of the syndicate that owns the filly. Costing £5,000 as a foal, Misty has already won £20,000 in prize money and boasts decent looking form behind Lily's Conquest in the listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket and Sajwah in the listed Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes at Salisbury.

Connections were reportedly disappointed with her penultimate run at Longchamp over seven furlongs on good to soft ground. Earlier in the season she wasn't eating well but now the feed has been changed she is fine. This looks a close call with Misty Conquest two pounds behind top-rated Kohala and one pound behind Miss Work Of Art on official ratings but the former has never raced over the trip while the latter has never won at this distance although she put in an eyecatching effort at York last time; jock Paul Hanagan clearly rates Miss Work Of Art's chance. The general feeling is Misty would show better form on good ground but her third at Newmarket was on good to soft; the going at Ayr is currently reported as soft, good to soft in places. All of which makes me rather ambivalent; the tissue prices Misty Conquest at 5/1 and that price doesn't really make that much appeal...

The feature long distance race tomorrow is Newmarket's Cesarewitch Trial at 3.30 - 10 of the 18 declared have some NH form to their name; the Cesarewitch is scheduled for Saturday 8th October.

At the moment Dayia looks high enough in the weights and would prefer cut underfoot. My Arch won the Pontefract Cup in June and has been kept busy since. Palomar raced off a mark of 136 in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham in March but doesn't strike me as the easiest to catch right. Hollins finished well behind My Arch in the Pontefract Cup but on that occasion ran as though something was amiss when losing his place five furlongs out; he has since won the Goodwood Stakes at odds of 20/1 and merits respect here. I'm finding it hard to drum up enthusiasm for Gordonsville but Mohanad was rated 129 when finishing mid-division in the Coral Cup at this year's Cheltenham Festival. French Hollow takes a step up in class but is on a four-timer after winning with something in hand at Chester the last time. Secret Tune made a belated comeback at Newbury last month while Sea Change, once with Jeremy Noseda, has his second run for current connections, having had just two tries over hurdles for David Pipe. Dark Ranger was rated 108 over hurdles  in April.

Suggestion: Hollins is interesting but I'm going to take an each-way chance with French Hollow at around the 10/1 mark.

Back at Ayr course and distance winner Chookie Hamilton makes slightly more appeal than Gogeo in the finale over 13 furlongs. No suggestion.

In the 4.55 at Catterick (14 furlongs) Danceintothelight likes to race prominently and beat Simple Jim some seven lengths here last year but the latter was conceding 20 pounds on that occasion and on revised ratings looks to have every chance of reversing the form, particularly if the ground stays good. Top weight Tropical Bachelor appeals as an each-way alternative with the jockey able to claim a handy-looking five pounds.

Suggestion: Simple Jim win (if ground good or quicker); each-way alternative: Tropical Bachelor.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Not much joy here.

The going at Ayr was soft / heavy in places. I didn't play Misty Conquest (6/1); in the event she ran respectably finishing fourth but Roger Sez (14/1) took the spoils in some style, coming home four lengths in front of 9/4 favourite Miss Work Of Art.

In the Ces trial Hollins raced alone on the far side after the turn before tacking back to the rest of the field. He was beaten a quarter of a mile from home, eventually finishing tenth. French Hollow (7/1) looked keen enough in midfield early doors but could never get competitive, finishing sixth.

At Catterick Simple Jim (7/2f) was soon beaten while Tropical Bachelor (12/1) was in with a shout two out before fading into sixth, beaten some eight lengths.