Friday, June 25, 2010

Northumberland Plate 2010

Recently a number of long distance races on the Flat have gone the way of horses with form over the sticks - Mamlook took the Chester Cup in May, while Junior won the Ascot Stakes and Bergo the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last week. The start of a trend? Probably not, but the jumpers in tomorrow's field include the aforementioned Mamlook (ridden on this occasion by Seb Sanders), Halla San, Overturn together with the Irish-trained pair Rajik and Zaralabad. Although the Pitmen's Derby is a two mile affair, a decent pitch early on is crucial so lower drawn horses tend to be favoured - in the last ten years the winner has come from a double figure berth on just three occasions. Weight plays its part as well - just one winner has carried more than eight stones eleven pounds in the past decade and in that time only one favourite has obliged.

With those stats in mind, of the jumpers mentioned above Mamlook looks to have a little too much weight, both Halla San and Overturn have been done by the draw while Rajik in stall three is better placed than his stablemate but finished well beaten behind Junior at Ascot eleven days ago; will the gelding have had enough time to recover? Before I knew the draw, I fancied Donald McCain's Overturn but the draw is the big negative - this evening William Hill go 12/1 which makes some each-way appeal.

On the back of two recent wins at York Deauville Flyer has been heavily backed over the past couple of days and heads the market this evening at 4/1. Jockey Robert Winston is wasting to do the eight stones three required. Of Andrew Balding's pair I considered Bernie The Bolt but the trainer states the gelding is probably better in the autumn while the value about Stanstill (was 20s now 14s) has ebbed away. I'm fast running out of options so, in a typically difficult handicap, Desert Sea is the each-way suggestion. He will like the ground, has a decent draw, a racing weight and is 14/1 with most layers this evening; beaten just under four lengths by Mamlook in the Chester Cup the selection is six pounds better off here.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

A peach of a ride from Eddie Ahern who took Overturn (14/1) from the widest berth (stall 21) to the inside running rail before the first turn and was never headed thereafter. The pursuers gave chase three out but Ahern had kicked on just after the home bend and Overturn wasn't for being caught.
Selection Desert Sea (14/1) raced well within himself in mid division and came from out of the pack to go second with three furlongs to race but he couldn't get anywhere near the impressive winner and was pipped for second spot by Drunken Sailor (16/1) on the line; nonetheless this was a commendable effort in this competitive handicap.