Friday, July 31, 2009

The Nassau Stakes at Goodwood

Ten fillies are set face the starter tomorrow for the Blue Square Nassau Stakes which is run over a trip just shy of ten furlongs. On official ratings Midday looks the one to beat and most bookmakers have made Henry Cecil's charge the 3/1 favourite, although it's worth noting the sponsors go 100/30. The market has proved a good guide over the past decade with the favourite obliging on six occasions, while the second and third favourites have won twice apiece. Midday is likely to be popular but I'm inclined to oppose. She appeared to get somewhat stuck in the mud in the Irish Oaks three weeks ago when finishing a well-beaten third behind Sariska. There were some chunky showers at Goodwood yesterday - the going was good to soft today and is predicted to be good tomorrow - but any further rain before the off won't help her cause and the forecast talks of outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times. Looking at the form of the Falmouth Stakes, there isn't much to choose between Rainbow View, Spacious and Heaven Sent. Rainbow View has been a little disappointing this term, Spacious may struggle with the trip so of the trio I prefer Heaven Sent, although at six her age is something of a negative. Having said that, this filly finished fourth in last year's renewal, beaten two heads and a neck into fourth behind Halfway To Heaven. Writing in the Weekender, Michael Bell expects 'a big run' from Moneycantbuymelove, while a downpour would mean John Oxx's Katiyra couldn't be entirely discounted. I'm surprised to see Barry Hills' High Heeled priced up at 14/1 in a couple of places as she has the same official rating as Rainbow View. She finished third in the Oaks and would probably appreciate further rain. In a fascintating contest, I'll go with Heaven Sent to collect the spoils and if the rain comes, I'll have an each-way wager on High Heeled (and perhaps a small reverse forecast the pair!)

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

The only thing I called correctly here was the weather. The rain came, together with a mist off the sea that restricted viewing from the stands to the final half furlong. It all looked pretty soggy - a grim rather than glorious finale to the meeting. The going was changed to soft and with it the market on the Nassau changed markedly. Rainbow View was sent off 5/2 favourite with plenty of money coming for John Oxx's Katiyra (SP 7/2). In contrast, Henry Cecil's Midday drifted out to 7/1 in places on course. Punters, myself included, thought Midday would struggle in the conditions, particularly after a hard-looking race at the Curragh last time, but the filly put in a classy performance to prove the doubters well and truly wrong and win this with some authority at a rather tasty-looking 11/2. Favourite Rainbow View was two and a quarter lengths away in second while Moneycantbuymelove (17/2) ran well to take third. Heaven Sent (8/1) proved anything but, holding a decent racing position in fifth but failing to make any headway from two out - she finished seventh. A better performance from High Heeled (8/1) who managed to make some late headway (from eighth) to finish in fifth but she was never able to mount a challenge. In the conditions it looked as though the weight for age allowance proved a key deciding factor, with four of the first five home carrying 8st 10lbs; the only other three year old in the field - 50/1 shot Nashmiah - finished last.