Friday, October 03, 2008

From Newmarket to Fontwell

Tomorrow thirty five go to post at Newmarket for the Cambridgeshire run over a trip of nine furlongs; the market has proved a reasonable guide over the years. Firstly, let me admit that the Cambridgeshire is not one of my favourite races. At the time of writing Luca Cumani's Swop is 8/1 favourite with most bookmakers but Ladbrokes have taken a stand by offering 10s. Prince Kalamoun has been steadily backed through the week while I wasn't too convinced by Ask The Butler's performance when sixth behind Presvis at Newbury a fortnight ago. Sir Mark Prescott fields two, Master of Arts and Caravel. The ground looks to have gone against the former; as the trainer feels there isn't much between the two on the gallops I'll risk a small each-way investment on the lightly-weighted Caravel at around 16/1 - over the past ten years eight winners have carried less than nine stones.

The jumps season is gradually building momentum and Fontwell stages an interesting card with the first race due off at 2.15. The handicap hurdle at 5.10 is competitive; top weight Winsley Hill will be popular after his second behind King's Head at Plumpton recently. In the closing stages of that race Alrafid made up plenty of ground to finish fourth on his comeback after a break. If he can build on that effort course winner Alrafid should be on the premises and rates an each-way bet at around 8/1. The performance of Postmaster in the 3.25 will provide a pointer as he was beaten a neck into third by Winsley Hill at Plumpton with the selection four lengths behind.

Postmaster is the top-rated animal in the 3.25 but faces an improving sort in David Pipe's Phoenix Des Mottes. The Pipe runner is likely to start favourite but Evan Williams' charge would offer some value if 3/1 became available.

On official ratings Tayarat is the one to beat in the opener. His jumping was far from perfect last time on his first try over hurdles but he still managed to finish second, clear of the rest of the field.

Only eight go to post in the 4.35 but a couple could go off like scalded cats. Soleil Fix is one of them and is of interest but on balance this looks just a little too trappy.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Not much joy here at all, I'm afraid.
A reasonable effort from Caravel (12/1) who finished seventh of the twenty eight runners who finally made the start. Unfortunately the best each-way terms before the race offered by Skybet paid a quarter the odds the first six.
Tazeez (25/1) beat Nanton (66/1) with Swop (7/1f) third.
Alrafid (8/1) raced mid-division but when push came to shove he found disappointingly little, coming in a well-beaten seventh; top-weight Winsley Hill was a non-runner.
I was surprised to see Postmaster go off 13/8 favourite while Phoenix Des Mottes was friendless in the market. Postmaster had the clear beating of the Pipe horse but had no answer to 16/1 winner Marsh Court.
Tayarat's poor jumping looks to have cost him this race, the 5/4 favourtie finishing nine lengths third behind Morestead (who benefitted from a front-running McCoy ride) and Potemkin.
As if all that wasn't bad enough Soleil Fix (11/4jf) went and won the 4.30!