Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Some early value for the 2008 Derby?

My record in the Derby is atrocious - just one win in well over forty years. Still, that's not going to stop me trying... Last night the going at Epsom was reported to be good to soft with heavy rain expected; it certainly rained steadily throughout the night in Coventry. I took it on myself to go through the eighteen five day declarations and concentrate on those priced at less than 20/1 that had shown some liking for easier going.

Jim Bolger's New Approach is the top-rated animal on Racing Post ratings and has been re-introduced into the betting at 6/1 following the handler's controversial change of mind in allowing the colt to take his chance. Compared to the 3/1 on offer earlier in the year, that looks reasonable value if you take the view the horse will stay. Certainly the colt's style of running up with the pace will be an advantage over this course.

Curtain Call is short enough in most lists, Tajaaweed the subject of a minor scare, but the Dante form looks intriguing. Tartan Bearer beat Frozen Fire a head, having had the benefit of a run earlier in the season. Several commentators prefer Tartan Bearer who is priced up at 8/1, yet Frozen Fire is twice that price and should handle cut in the ground. At this stage Frozen Fire looks the Ballydoyle number one and is worth an each-way interest at 16/1.

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