Chester tomorrow

I fancied a wager in the listed Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase this weekend but Newton Abbot has already been called off due to a waterlogged course...

Market Rasen stage a humdrum jumps card; Toshi, trained by Jim Goldie, hinted at a return to form last time out and may be worth a second look at a price in the Christmas Party Day 6th December Handicap Hurdle at 6.55. As it's a bit too early to be thinking about Christmas, I've quickly 'skimmed' the two long distance events at Chester; the going on the Roodee is currently described as good to soft.

My selection for last week's Ebor, Icon Dream, is another stabled in Jim Goldie's yard and he reappears in the listed handicap at 2.30; the gelding ran no sort of race at York last Saturday and has plenty to find with both Area Fifty One (fifth) and Tominator (eighth). I think he's better than that run - the handy inside draw should be to his advantage around Chester's tight turns. The top one catches the eye; Rebecca Curtis strikes me as a trainer who knows the time of day - her strike rate for the season is 28.89% (13 wins, 45 runs). Meganisi is suggested as an each-way wager at 10/1 or bigger.

In the 4.55 Los Nadis (Jim Goldie yet again!) is a dual purpose horse I like. Rated 135 over hurdles, he has a good draw in this but goes off mark of 78 which looks quite high. Priced at just 6/1 in the tissue, I'm going to watch from the sidelines...

From the sublime to the ridiculous

This week we've seen the sublime and we've seen the ridiculous.

Frankel barely had to engage second gear to take Wednesday's Juddmonte International at York; writing as Thunderer in today's Times, Stephen Pollard informs us the great horse '...has achieved perfection.'

In marked contrast bookmakers Betfred have incurred the wrath of most by refusing to pay out on a grandmother's 200/1 Olympic medal wager; Sam Oldham won team bronze in the gymnastics but Betfred have refused a payout as the medal was won in a team, rather than an individual, event. Hmmm.

For the final day of the Ebor meeting here are a couple of tips which, come five o'clock on Saturday afternoon, you're likely to consider ridiculous rather than sublime...

The feature race is the Ebor at 3.40. In the past I've leant towards horses with some NH form for this event; this approach has proved decidedly unsuccessful over the years but I'm past caring. Four qualify this year - Steps To Freedom, Crackentorp, Royal Diamond and Blue Bajan.

Top weight Steps To Freedom looks up against it - only Sea Pigeon (1979) has carried more than 9-4 to victory in the past 50 years. At the age of ten, Blue Bajan appears to face a similarly stiff task; Sea Pigeon was aged nine when recording his victory - since then no horse older than six has come home in front.

In the past nine renewals the winner has come from of a double-digit stall on eight occasions - Royal Diamond doesn't appear to have the best of draws (stall 2) and his tendency to race from the front could leave him vulnerable up the long home straight.

Crackentorp has a better draw (17) but, on stats, can't win at the age of seven and last time out put in a slightly disappointing performance behind Mount Athos. Mount Athos has gone in again since and now heads for the Melbourne Cup, so perhaps I'm being a little harsh there... Previously Crackentorp finished second to Ile De Re in Newcastle's Northumberland Plate run on heavy ground. That day Icon Dream was third and tomorrow's favourite Motivado thirteenth.

The two I'm interested in at a price are Crackentorp and Icon Dream; on Northumberland Plate running there's little between them. Crackentorp is 16/1 with most layers while Icon Dream is 25/1 so I'll take a small each-way interest in Icon Dream (drawn 19) - most layers are paying a quarter the odds four places.

In the preceding Lonsdale Cup (3.05) I haven't totally written off Willie Mullins' Simenon. This one finished sixth behind Saddler's Rock in the Goodwood Cup last time but was only beaten four and a half lengths. On ratings he has plenty to find with several of these and on a literal interpretation can't reverse form with Saddler's. Having said that, I'm re-reading Ruby Walsh's autobiography at the moment and Ruby's comments about Willie Mullins make me think the great man wouldn't send his charge over if he didn't think the gelding was in with a shout. Simenon was done for toe in the final furlong at Goodwood; priced up early at 16/1 with William Hill, I'll bet Simenon each-way - any rain at the track will aid his cause.

The Summer Hurdle at Perth

Flat fans appear to be waiting for next week's Ebor meeting at York so I thought I'd take a look at tomorrow's feature at Perth, the Summer Champion Hurdle (4.15) run over two miles and 110 yards.

Gordon Elliott has an outstanding record at the track and sends over the likely favourite Cause of Causes from Ireland; the four-year-old is top-rated by the Racing Post but I'm always wary of young horses having to concede weight to more experienced rivals.

Nicky Henderson sent up his fancied First In The Queue to Scotland yesterday; connections are looking for a good run but point out the gelding wouldn't want a lot more rain.

The Peter Bowen trained Kian's Delight had Absinthe and Mao Chinn Tire behind when finishing one and a half lengths second to Local Hero in the listed Summer Hurdle at Market Rasen four weeks ago - as usual that race was a very competitive affair and this time round Absinthe has a three pounds pull for under two and a half lengths. Timmy Murphy rode Absinthe that day but he rides the favourite here and I just wonder whether Donald McCain's stable jock Jason Maguire may be tempted to make more use of Absinthe who was staying on in fourth at the finish.

David Pipe saddles two, His Excellency and Hunterview. The former, formerly trained by Gordon Elliott, was beaten over 80 lengths in the Galway Plate earlier this month and has been known to 'swish the tail' during races. The latter is one I've fancied at biggish prices in the past but he's never quite lived up to expectations.

I always think it pays to race near the pace at Perth so course form can be considered worthwhile. Dianne Sayer's mare Cool Baranca has course and distance winning form to her name but this looks a tough ask while I'm guessing connections of Smalib Monterg will have a better idea of what they have on their hands after this race.

A competitive race for decent prize money given the time of year. At the time of writing there are no prices chalked up so, working from the tissue, Absinthe looks a play against more fancied market rivals at around 13/2 while I'd consider an each-way wager on Smalib Monterg if priced in double figures - both suggestions should not be unduly inconvenienced by further rain at the track. 

From Olympic golds to Newton Abbot

Last week's post on The Times' virtual medal table generated some interest, so I thought I'd follow up seven days on.

The supplement published with The Times on Thursday 26th July printed a virtual table for each day of the Olympics. At the close of business on Thursday August 2nd Team GB were predicted to have three gold medals whereas in actual fact they had five in the bag. If that advantage is maintained to the end of competition, Great Britain will finish with 21 golds, two more than predicted.

For those who may be interested in taking a position, I thought it would be useful to list the GB golds as predicted by The Times, starting from today.

Friday:
Kath Grainger / Anna Watkins, Women's double sculls

Saturday, predicted to be Team GB's best day:
Helen Jenkins, Triathlon
Men's Four, Rowing
Women's Team Pursuit, Cycling
Mo Farah, 10,000 metres

Sunday:
Ben Ainslie, Sailing

Monday:
Jason Kenny, Men's sprint cycling

Tuesday, predicted to be the second best day:
One of the Brownlee brothers, Triathlon
Victoria Pendleton, Cycling individual sprint
Sir Chris Hoy, Cycling keirin

Wednesday:
No golds

Thursday:
Savannah Marshall, Women's boxing
One other, not listed

Friday:
Sarah Stevenson (not selected on form)

Saturday:
Sprint canoeing x 2
One other not listed

Sunday:
No golds

You pays your money and takes your choice...

Personally I still think this looks a big ask, so instead I'll consider placing my money on Present To You in tomorrow's 2.35 at Newton Abbot.

The selection was beaten seven lengths by likely favourite Giant O'Murchu six days ago at Stratford over a distance just shy of two miles two furlongs. The shorter trip here appears in his favour, he now races on seven pounds better terms and connections have opted to try a visor for the first time. If the tissue price of 8/1 becomes available, David Bridgwater's charge looks reasonable each-way value.

Layers and the Olympic games

With Galway and Glorious Goodwood (referred to as simply 'Glorious' in some quarters) next week, this weekend's racing action looks somewhat mundane, especially with anticipation building for the much-heralded start to the London 2012 Olympic Games...

Perhaps it's just me but over the past few days I sense bookmakers have started to smell some easy Olympic-sized pickings in the forthcoming fortnight and have been indulging in some Olympic games of their own - yesterday I swear I saw a tweet where a layer quoted 8/1 about James Bond to light the Olympic flame...

Olympic betting isn't something I have any experience of but by far the best article I've read in recent months was penned by The Times' Owen Slot back in early March. The Times, in conjunction with Infostrada Sports in Holland, created a virtual medal table using a database of form collated up to that point. In that virtual medal table, Great Britain finished fifth with 16 gold medals, four behind Germany in fourth and Russia in third. Now, the table hasn't factored in home advantage but, as Slot is keen to point out, the layers have.

Home advantage would need to be worth a notional 11% improvement in form for Great Britain to finish third with 21 golds - the tally at Beijing in 2008 was 19 when Team GB finished fourth.

Depending on your perception of the value of home advantage, you can make your plays... Skybet go 5/4 Great Britain to finish fourth, while the same firm offer 6/1 Team GB will finish fifth, a price that makes plenty of appeal to the more pessimistic amongst us; more persistent punters may also care to ask for a price about Germany finishing fourth.

A word of warning before you rush to part with your cash - that table was compiled on form as at 5th March 2012 and a lot has happened since. Slot's article 'Bookmakers banking on home advantage to boost medal tally' was published with the sub-header 'Leading layers ignore statistics to frame optimisitc market for Britain' (The Times, Monday March 5 2012, p59).

As I said earlier, generally I don't bet on the Olympics - if I succumb to temptation this time, I'll take 6/1 about GB to finish fifth in the medal table.

------------------------

Postscript added 28.07.12 @ 13:40

Supplement published with Thursday's Times (26.07.12) printed an updated virtual medal table - top five places shown below:

1. USA             39 gold, 21 silver, 28 bronze
2. CHINA         34 gold, 33 silver, 24 bronze
3. RUSSIA       20 gold, 30 silver, 32 bronze
4. GB               19 gold, 24 silver, 21 bronze
5. GERMANY  17 gold, 22 silver, 20 bronze.

Note that the comment added to this post by reader mrvp highlights a potentially better opportunity.

PG.

Market Rasen's Summer Plate meeting

I'm short on time so some very quick notes...

The weekend feature, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Ascot 4.35), is intriguing. Last year's winner, Nathaniel, took the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown a fortnight ago with a gutsy display on his seasonal debut; there must be some concern he won't have fully recovered from those exertions. In a race where the market has proved a decent guide in the past, I prefer Sea Moon to St Nicholas Abbey following his victory in a competitive renewal of the Harwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot but Sir Michael Stoute is not overly bullish about his colt's chance in a piece in today's Times so I'm not going to play. The three-year-old Japanese runner Deep Brillante (20/1 Bet Victor) is the each-way suggestion for those interested; at the time of writing bet365, 888Sport and Blue Square are the layers offering a quarter the odds a place.

Never mind the Flat, there's a decent jumps card at Market Rasen, with the Summer Plate (3.25) the highlight. You'd have reservations about the jumping with a few of those entered including Benbane Head, Tiger O'Toole, Eastlake and likely favourite Spock. Last year's winner Qulinton is a quirky individual who has been out of form for a while but last time hinted he could be on the way back and tries a visor here; Lawney Hill's I Have Dreamed has been running in hunter chases for the best part of 18 months. Peter Bowen regularly targets this prize, having won four of the last nine renewals; often he saddles several but this year he's single-handed with Al Co. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has declared two - I much prefer That'll Do (Harry Derham claiming seven) to Spock.  Al Co is my idea of the winner while That'll Do is suggested as an each-way alternative.

Finally, a couple to monitor - Mick Channon's Ctappers in the opener and Bellaboosh in the 4.40.

Two John Smith's for York...

Can you have too much of a good thing? Tomorrow's racing includes the Darley July Cup at Newmarket, the John Smith's Cup at York, the Weatherby's Super Sprint at Newbury and the chesterBET City Plate at Chester.

I've decided to focus on the two long distance races at York - the John Smith's Silver Cup at 2.25 over 14 furlongs and the John Smith's Stayers' Handicap at 4.45 over two miles. Both races pick up strands of form from the Northumberland Plate run at Newcastle two weeks ago; on that occasion I highlighted runners with previous NH form and I'm going to do something similar here.

The going is currently described as good to soft, soft in places.

Crackentorp runs in the Silver Cup and ran a cracker to finish second at odds of 16/1 in the Northumberland Plate; he carried nine stone off a handicap mark of 93 on that occasion but this time has been raised eight pounds and has 9-7 on his back. Motivado was beaten a distance in that same race while Blue Bajan, Lyric Street and Kiama Bay were all withdrawn on the day on account of the heavy ground; the last-named has since posted a decent effort to finish seventh, beaten four lengths, in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. Michael Bell took the honours last year with Tactician - this time he saddles the only three-year-old in the field who is marked up favourite in the tissue.

I think Cesarewitch winner Never Can Tell would prefer better ground, a comment that also applies to Mount Athos who was fourth behind the aforementioned Ces winner and was withdrawn from the Coral Marathon at Sandown last Saturday where the ground was described as good to soft. The mare Western Pearl ran third in this last year at a big price and ran creditably to finish fifth behind Simenon in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal Ascot meeting while High Jinx doesn't have too many miles on the clock and apparently has the Ebor as his target so he'll be expected to show up well here. The one that catches my eye is the appropriately-named Stormy Weather. Formerly with Howard Johnson, the grey was highly tried on his first two runs over hurdles for Brian Ellison, in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham last December. On his subsequent four visits to the track he has finished in the first two on each occasion and rates reasonable each-way value at around 14/1.   

In the Stayers' Handicap, those with previous NH form are Orsippus, Herostatus, Pokfulham, Bruslini, Jonny Delta, Mica Mika, Swinging Hawk and Red Jade. Brian Ellison's grey Bruslini has raced from the front in recent hurdle races before finishing third behind Cloudy Spirit over two miles two here in May. Orsippus was behind in fourth that day before going on to finish second at Ripon and then collect the Pontefract Cup three weeks ago (beating French Hollow who ran a stormer in the Northumberland Plate). Bruslini looks weighted to confirm the York form with Orsippus. Pokfulham looked to have a hard race when beating Rock Relief a nose on the heavy ground at Newcastle just over a fortnight ago while Herostatus had a long slog in the Catterick mud a mere three days ago.

Jonny Delta is an interesting one - as a four-year-old he finished seventh behind Steps To Freedom in the Aintree bumper - in front of subsequent Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Cinders And Ashes. That form reads well - last time out Jonny was fourth behind Getabuzz (Fallon up) beaten just two lengths (with Red Jade further behind in seventh); he's two pounds better off here so the pairing look closely matched but jockey bookings are noted... Fallon rides Orsippus while Neil Farley claims five aboard Jonny Delta. A difficult race but I'll follow Fallon on Orsippus (Bruslini feared) and will consider a small rach-way interest in Jonny Delta if priced up around the 20/1 mark.

To finish, a dreamer's double - what price Brian Ellison's two greys, Stormy Weather and Bruslini...?

Coral-Eclipse day 2012

Ten have been declared for tomorrow's feature, the Coral-Eclipse run over ten furlongs at Sandown.

There has been plenty of rain around today and the temptation is to think the ground will ride heavy but so far Sandown seems to have missed much of the moisture - at the time of writing the going is described as good to soft.

So You Think won this last year but was declared a non-runner yesterday after suffering a setback; he has now been retired to stand at stud in Australia. His withdrawal makes this a completely different race.

Three-year-olds receive an eleven pounds allowance from their elders in the Eclipse but in the past decade only three of the younger generation have obliged: Hawk Wing in 2002, Oratorio in 2005 and Sea The Stars in 2009. This year's representatives are Bonfire and Cogito; the former was sixth in the Derby and hails from a stable in form but to my mind possesses a suspect temperarment while the latter has enough to find despite finding plenty of trouble in running behind Most Improved in the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot two and a half weeks ago.

Farhh replaces Royal Ascot conqueror So You Think at the head of the market. The Godolphin colt looked unlucky in running that day; connections are on record as saying their charge would prefer cut underfoot and they look likely to get their wish. Another Godolphin runner, Monterosso, won the Dubai World Cup at Meydan in March but in the run-up to this connections have been decidedly downbeat. Nathaniel is a very talented individual and shown appropriate respect but the colt missed his intended comeback as the result of a dirty scope - this looks a tough ask on his seasonal debut. Cityscape has never won beyond nine furlongs but he has shown his best form on soft. I was considering two at each-way prices - Crackerjack King and previous winner Twice Over but neither wants the rain. Marco Botti's grey brings Italian form to the table while at the age of seven Twice Over looks unlikely to win - no horse older than five has won in over 50 years. Farhh looks the percentage call provided you buy into the Ascot hard luck story and he can reproduce a similar effort 17 days on; at the prices Crackerjack King is put up as a tentative each-way selection at around the 12/1 mark, although the ground appears to have gone against him.

All week I have been wondering whether to play in the following race, the Coral Marathon run over two miles plus at 4.20. Cavalryman is priced up favourite in the tissue but he's never been easy to catch right and is worth taking on. Chilberta King beat Aaim To Propser and Electrolyser a nose and two lengths in last year's renewal  - the first two look closely matched once again although on current handicap ratings Chilberta has five pounds in hand. Top-rated animal Glen's Diamond doesn't look guaranteed to stay while Mount Athos is of interest as is Thimaar having missed last week's Northumberland Plate on account of the heavy ground. Trappy indeed - earlier in the week I fancied Mount Athos but now the rain has arrived I'm far less confident - I think I'm going to watch from the sidelines... 

Northumberland Plate 2012

A halt was called to proceedings after the fourth at Newcastle yesterday and today's card abandoned following severe storms in the area. At the time of writing an inspection has been scheduled for 8.00 am  Saturday morning for this prestigious card   - here's my view on the race they call the 'Pitmen's Derby'.

Regular readers will be aware I like to back a horse with jumps form in this race - that angle didn't lead me to last year's winner, Tominator, but the corresponding blog post did point out that horses with NH form boast a decent record over the past decade. In that same timeframe only one animal has carried more than 8-11 to victory - Bangalore (9-5) in 2002 - which doesn't bode well for market leaders Ile De Re and Gulf Of Naples, especially as conditions underfoot are likely to prove extremely testing.

The market hasn't proved very much help with recent winners priced at 33/1 (Mirjan 2004, Toldo 2006); 25/1 (Tominator 2011); 16/1 (Som Tala 2009) and 14/1 (Arc Bleu 2008, Overturn 2010). Just the one favourite has obliged in the past ten renewals - Juniper Girl (5/1) in 2007.

In recent years horses drawn high have tended to fare better but, on balance, I still prefer a horse with a low draw near the rail - I always think a decent pitch early on is vital in this event.

Those with NH form to their name in tomorrow's field are: Ile De Re, Blue Bajan, Crackentorp, The Betchworth Kid, Merchant Of Dubai, High Office, Halla San, French Hollow and Trovare. Both Ile De Re and Blue Bajan have their share of weight; Ile De Re won the Chester Cup last time out - the Weekender informs us the last horse to complete the double in the same year was Attivo in 1974. Although set to carry 9-0 after winning a fortnight ago at York, Crackentorp isn't readily dismissed - the gelding missed the cut last year and appears to have each-way claims this time; he has a reasonable draw and hails from a stable in form. You could never be certain The Betchworth Kid would put his best foot forward but he ran third last time with The Merchant Of Dubai finishing well beaten in ninth; however The Merchant led two out before fading in that race and makes more appeal to this observer. Richard Fahey's comments on his pair High Office and Halla San are worth noting. High Office may struggle to see out the trip while Halla San was retired at Beverley on Tuesday but is given this last chance as it's such a big race; Fahey clearly rates Lexington Boy his best chance. On his seasonal debut French Hollow ran a decent trial under a big weight to finish second in the Pontefract Cup and has to be of interest but Trovare was well beaten three days ago when suffering traffic problems on the all-weathger at Kempton.

My shortlist consists of Crackentorp, Merchant Of Dubai and French Hollow. Crackentrop has been raised five pounds for his York win, so Merchant Of Dubai is the each-way selection (28/1 Skybet at the time of writing). Skybet also stand out offering 33/1 about French Hollow while rivals Ladbrokes only go 16/1; I'm tempted. Most layers are paying a quarter the odds four places.

Royal Ascot 2012 - Saturday

Without doubt the star of tomorrow's show will be Australian sprinter Black Caviar who bids to record her 22nd consecutive win in the six furlong Diamond Jubilee Stakes at 3.45. Thousands of  fans who have followed the mare half way across the globe promise to generate an atmosphere the like of which Royal Ascot has never seen before. At 1/4 'Nelly' as she is affectionately known is no betting proposition but this is a race to watch, savour and enjoy.

I've had a grim time of it at Royal Ascot this year and I'm far from certain to buck that trend in the concluding Queen Alexandra Stakes, the longest race in the Flat calendar. Horses with form over the jumps have done well in this event over the years, a fact our friends the bookmakers are well aware of.

Those who saw Willie Mullins' Simenon hack up in the Ascot Stakes on Tuesday will be keen to play up their winnings here as the gelding races off the same mark (95); Elyaadi (90) finished 14th in the same race. On official ratings Overturn has plenty in hand over all these rivals; Donald McCain's charge held an entry in Thursday's Gold Cup but obviously connections decided this was the easier task. Having said that, it's worth noting he hasn't won beyond 19 furlongs and was withdrawn from this event last year on account of the soft ground. 2011 winner Swingkeel appears to have been laid out for this again - he goes off a mark four pounds higher and may struggle to concede weight to 18 of his opponents in these conditions. Paul Nicholls saddles Amercian Trilogy, his first runner at Royal Ascot, who will go in the ground and certainly stay the trip. Other jumpers with half decent NH ratings include Kangaroo Court (probably prefer better ground, a comment that also applies to Scotsbrook Cloud) and the two mares Cloudy Spirit and Golden Sunbird. Overturn looked a decent each-way bet for the Gold Cup at around 20/1 but I'm not convinced he'll see out the extra distance in the ground. Simenon is feared but at 16/1 with BetVictor American Trilogy is the each-way selection.

This year's renewal of the Hardwicke Stakes (3.05) looks particularly intriguing with John Gosden, who recorded a 142/1 treble earlier today (Newfangled 7/4f, Fallen For You 12/1 and Gatewood 3/1f), saddling Aiken while likely favourite Sea Moon is trained by Sir Michael Stoute who also welcomed home a winner earlier today - Estimate is owned by Her Majesty The Queen, reported to be 'delighted' with her victory.

Royal Ascot 2012 - Friday

Short on time for Friday's selections so brief notes only - given the sort of form I've shown so far this week, it's probably a blessing in disguise...

Maybe might have been of interest in the Coronation Stakes (3.45) but she looks unlikely to run. John Gosden's Elusive Kate was another filly to catch my eye but she's making her seasonal debut and connections seem to indicate she won't necessarily find underfoot conditions to her liking. Bugie D'Amore, fourth behind Laugh Out Loud at Chantilly, is expected to come on for that run but is nothing more than a tentative each-way suggestion.

Astrology is the clear form selection for the King Edward VII Stakes (3.05).

The Queen is still looking for a winner at this meeting - her filly Estimate takes on the colts in the Queen's Vase (5.00) run over two miles. Given the rain that's fallen, the trip will take plenty of getting for these three-year-olds. Minimise Risk finished seventh in the Derby but I'm going to take an each-way chance with Macbeth (8/1) who has a win over a mile and a half on soft ground in Ireland to his name.

Royal Ascot 2012 - Thursday is Ladies' Day

The highlight on Ladies' Day is the Gold Cup (3.45), one of my favourite races at this meeting, run over two and a half miles.

The formidable Yeats, trained by Aidan O'Brien, won four consecutive renewals (2006-09) before Dermot Weld's Rite Of Passage sprang a surprise at odds of 20/1 in 2010. Normal service was resumed last year when Coolmore's Fame And Glory landed some sizeable bets beating Opinion Poll three lengths (with Askar Tau a further five and a half lengths away fifth). The form is in the book and the layers aren't taking any chances this time with Fame And Glory (rated 120) odds-on in most places at the time of writing - Blue Square stand out offering 11/10.

Several see Jamie Spencer's mount banker material but others are more cautious, arguing this year's race is more competitive. I'm in the latter camp and was disappointed to see Donald McCain's Overturn, second in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, omitted from the final declarations - he would have ensured a strong gallop from the off. On official ratings Opinion Poll (116), Colour Vision (117) and Saddler's Rock (114) are within striking range of the favourite - under the conditions of the race the last two named also receive two pounds from Fame And Glory. Colour Vision didn't look guaranteed to stay another two furlongs when third in the Cesarewitch last autumn so I'm going to chance Saddler's Rock against the favourite (9/2 in most places). For those possessing an adventurous disposition, I wouldn't put anyone off considering Askar Tau each-way (50/1 BetVictor); this one was in the mix last year and only beaten out of a place in the final furlong.

To a certain extent the Ribblesdale (3.05) looks like a re-run of the Epsom Oaks with six electing to do battle once again. Of course, there's no guarantee they'll finish in the same order, especially as this year's renewal looked a pretty rough affair throwing up any number of hard luck stories. The troubles of the The Fugue have been well documented  - the Weekender's Topspeed columnist Dave Edwards informs us that hand-held split timings show The Fugue came up the Epsom straight faster than Derby winner Camelot the following day. The question is can the fillies in question reproduce similar efforts three weeks on... Kailani was one of those badly hampered in the Oaks; this filly should appreciate the easier ground and at 12/1 she strikes me as reasonable each-way value.

Finally, I won't have a bet in the Norfolk (2.30) but Mick Channon's Cay Verde looks the one to beat.

Royal Ascot 2012 - Wednesday

Earlier today Frankel (1/10f) took the opening race at this year's Royal Ascot, the Queen Anne Stakes, by an astonishing 11 lengths; afterwards connections confirmed what many suspected - the colt appears to be improving!

In Diamond Jubilee year traditionalists will be hoping Carlton House, owned by the Queen, can oblige in the 150th Anniversary Of Prince Of Wales's Stakes at 3.45. Royal trainer Sir Michael Stoute suffered a torrid time of it last year and was slow enough out of the stalls this season but the winners are starting to flow. On official ratings, Carlton House has six pounds to find with Aidan O'Brien's So You Think; at the time of writing Coral are the only layer to offer even money about Coolmore's representative. Before getting stuck in, it's worth noting that So You Think has run twice over this course and distance and has been beaten on both occasions - a neck by Rewilding (rated 121) in this race last year and three quarters of a length by Cirrus Des Aigles in the Champion Stakes in October. Although Planteur (rated 121 here) finished fourth behind Rewilding and So You Think last year, Marco Botti's charge has since finished in front of So You Think in the Dubai World Cup in March. If the principals turn up and run their race, So You Think wins but at the prices on offer I'm going to take an each-way interest in Planteur at 9/1.

Should you be looking to win a life-changing amount of money [I know, you wouldn't be reading this blog anyway], the annual cavalry charge that is the Royal Hunt Cup wouldn't be the first race where you'd consider placing your wager; nonetheless it's still an amazing spectacle. This year I've been particularly devoid of inspiration - in fact it has been so bad I went and had a look at what the bookmakers' reps were tipping; you know it's bad when you start asking bookies for tips. Two things stood out - they all reported money for Edinburgh Knight and a couple had a quiet word for Mabait (25/1). At the time of writing four layers are paying five places in this race: Paddy Power; BetVictor; bet365 and Boylesports. If you decide to play, I wish you the very best of luck.

Royal Ascot 2012 - Tuesday

In Diamond Jubilee year the royals have had their fair share of media exposure and there's bound to be more to come in the week ahead. Those interested in the Queen's interest in horse racing may be interested in Julian Muscat's book Her Majesty's Pleasure: How Horseracing Enthralls the Queen.

Of course, book publishing is much like horse racing in that everyone wants to back a winner. Orion Books have the autobiographies of Ruby Walsh and Tony McCoy in their stable but Jon Wood and Jemima Forrester will be hoping they have hit the jackpot with their latest acquisition, having shelled out a six figure sum for a 'racy romantic trilogy' which is likely to appeal to fans of works such as Fifty Shades of Grey by E.L. James. According to Saturday's Times, Fifty Shades '...is the fastest-selling paperback in Britain since since records began, overtaking Dan Brown and J.K. Rowling.' Until yesterday evening I thought it was a book about British summers over the past half century.

From the racy to the racing...

The going is reported as good to soft, good in places, for the first day of Royal Ascot which may inconvenience some but is unlikely to inconvenience superstar Frankel who is currently quoted at 1/5 to win the Queen Anne.

In the King's Stand I intend to take a small each-way interest in Stepper Point (50/1 generally). This one disappointed on his seasonal debut in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket but came back to form at Chantilly the next time when beaten just under two lengths by Wizz Kid, widely tipped for this. It's worth noting that at the time of writing not all layers are offering each-way terms a quarter the odds.

The favourite has obliged in the St James's Place Stakes (3.45) on seven occasions in the past decade while Aidan O'Brien has saddled the winner on six occasions in the past 12 years. Those stats point to Power - I looked closely at Brian Meehan's Most Improved but recent stable form is not encouraging.

I like to back a horse with NH form in the Ascot Stakes (5.00). Nicky Henderson's mare Veiled did the blog a favour winning this last year (Elyaadi has finished second in a race at this meeting in the past two seasons) but Veiled races off a mark seven pounds higher this time. Willie Mullins' Simenon is respected but I'll take an each-way interest in Ashbrittle (tissue price 12/1). This one finished tenth in last year's race off a mark of 92 when trained by Ralph Beckett. On that occasion the gelding was done for toe half a mile from home so I'm hoping slower underfoot conditions will help David Pipe's inmate find the improvement required - he goes off 88 this time with Paul Hanagan doing the steering.

Finally, a book to finish off with... In Royal Ascot week, I was contemplating purchasing Gentlemen's Pursuits: A Country Miscellany for the Discerning (published this week) but I've decided to stick the money on a horse instead, primarily because I'm not really very discerning at all.

Odds 'n' sods

Call me a miserable old sod but I can't help thinking the time between the Derby and Royal Ascot is something of a fallow period. To be fair, Willie Carson has tried to spice things up a little with comments such as these taken from last Saturday's Independent:

"There are hardly any world class jockeys riding in Britain today"

and

"Look at the jump jockeys. There must be nearly 15 of them that are top-class. But on the Flat there is this dearth. I suppose there are no jocks like me any more: no more tiny little wimps. I was a war baby, see. De Sousa's not world-class, Hanagan's not - not yet, nowhere near. They have to break through."

Hmmm... interesting. What Willie would make of Willy Twiston-Davies who has had nine rides on the Flat since pulling up Battlecry in a three mile chase at Wetherby at the end of May is anyone's guess.

My Coral Champions Club membership has generated interest, the club having three with Jeremy Gask - Cool Marble (unplaced in two handicaps at Ascot and Sandown this season); Bahama Spirit (seventh of nine on her seasonal debut earlier today - in the mix at the furlong pole before weakening); and unraced two-year-old Never A Quarrel (making use of the phrase that enticed punters back in the 1960s: 'There's never a quarrel when you bet with Coral'.)

Some NH trainers are in decent form at the moment... Figures for the past fortnight include Jonjo O'Neill (7 wins from 22 runs, 31.82%), Paul Nicholls (3 wins from 8 runs, 37.5%), Tim Vaughan (9 wins from 33 runs, 27.27%) and Peter Bowen (6 wins from 24 runs, 25%). At Worcester Like Minded is of interest in an interesting beginners' chase at 2.45. Although beaten when odds-on on his chase debut, the gelding has since finished mid-division in the Martin Pipe hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and in a listed handicap hurdle at Aintree.

2012 Derby Day deliberations

For some reason or other Queen Elizabeth II has been in the news a bit recently.

Tomorrow is the 60th anniversary of her coronation and to mark the occasion Epsom have named the Coronation Cup (2.40) the Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup. Of course, the feature is the Derby with just nine set to face the starter (4.00). Most observers think Camelot is something of a shoo-in with the result Aidan O'Brien's colt will start odds-on and will probably be sent off one of the shortest-priced favourites since the war - the shortest priced winner of the race was Ladas who took the 1894 renewal at odds of 2/9.

If you're not convinced Camelot is the stuff of legend, you may want to look to Andrew Balding's Bonfire to start the fireworks. Those watching the BBC's final coverage of the event would also be well-advised to prepare themselves for some loud shrieks in commentary from Andrew's sister, Clare, if Bonfire has the merest hint of a chance in the final furlong. At 5/1 the colt offers value against the favourite but his temperament could be considered slightly suspect - if I were betting this one, I'd want to be absolutely sure he'd handled the preliminaries before parting with the stake money.

Main Sequence is unbeaten but this represents a set up in class and I may be star-gazing but Astrology could act as pacemaker for his stablemate. Mickdaam looked anything but an easy ride when winning the Dee Stakes at Chester but should confirm form with Balding's second string Minimise Risk.

Hayley Turner becomes only the second female ever to ride in the race - Alex Greaves finished last on Portugese Lil in 1996. Hayley's mount, Cavaleiro, is probably overpriced at 66/1 but still has plenty to find.

During the week money has come for Thought Worthy (now 16/1) - this one beat Rugged Cross a neck and three quarters of a length in the listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket last month. Thought Worthy is worthy place material but for the more adventurous Rugged Cross (50/1)  is put up as the each-way wager given that Newmarket effort was on his seasonal debut and there could be improvement to come.

Her Majesty's Carlton House, third in last year's Derby, added to royal celebrations with an assured victory at Sandown yesterday evening and Harvest Song tries to repeat the trick for the owner in tonight's 6.40 at Stratford.

I admit I've haven't been paying attention but I feel as though I've sleep-walked into this weekend and have just been given a slap across the face with a wet fish.Those looking to avoid the pomp and circumstance integral in any royal celebration may want to consider this alternative NH itinerary over the next few days...

Friday evening: Stratford - first race 5.40;
Saturday: Watch the Derby on the big screen at Stratford - evening's racing commences at 6.00;
Sunday: Head north to Uttoxeter - first race 2.10;
Monday: Back south to Towcester - first race 2.20;
Tuesday: Head west to Ffos Las - first race 2.30.

Other suggested itineraries welcomed.

A Knight's chivalric retirement

Yesterday Henrietta Catherine Knight called time on a training career that saw her win three consecutive Gold Cups with Best Mate (2002-4) and the 2000 Champion Chase with Edredon Bleu; owned by Jim Lewis, those horses also won the King George VI Chase for her in 2002 and 2003.

Knight came into racing through a somewhat circuitous route.

Having gained her BEd (Oxon) qualification at Westminster College, Oxford, she taught biology and history at St Mary's School, Wantage, before embarking on a career trainng racehorses. Her first winner under rules was The Grey Gunner at Bangor-On-Dee in 1989, Bruce Dowling up; in 1995 she married former jockey Terry Biddlecombe and the partnership went to the very top of the profession, becoming affectionately known as racing's 'Odd Couple'.

In November 2005 stable star Best Mate collapsed and died of a suspected heart attack after being pulled up in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter. The quest to find a replacement was doomed to fail and led to a split with ambitious Jim Lewis.

Biddlecombe suffered a stroke in 2011 - it's Terry's continued ill health that is behind Hen's decision to hand in her licence. The vast majority of horses will transfer to Mick Channon who trains nearby at West Ilsley.

Over the years I came to associate the yard with well-schooled novice chasers, with a preference for using riders you'd lean to calling horsemen rather than jockeys. A couple of personal memories from the gaff tracks ...

Young Warrior (Bruce Dowling) won me some money one sodden New Year's Day at Exeter in the early nineties. There had been a market move for a horse of David Elsworth's, Seven Of Diamonds, and that one came to win the race but took a heavy fall at the last. Young Warrior collected but Seven Of Diamonds spent a fair while on the floor before eventually rising to a round of applause from the enclosures.

Another run that sticks in my mind is that of Blowing Rock (Jim Culloty) in a novices' handicap chase at Hereford in October 1998. We'd taken 9/2 and the horse had jumped well, gaining ground over his opponents at most of the obstacles. Three out Culloty sent the Strong Gale gelding on; the form book reads '... 5 lengths clear and in control when fell last, unlucky...'

Hen is set to have her final runner in next few days; it could be Harvest Song, owned by HRH The Queen, entered up in the 2.30 at Newton Abbot on Wednesday. That would be some finale - in Derby week, Hen Knight trains winner for The Queen - at Newton Abbot!

From the world's best racehorse to Bangor-On-Dee

At York on Wednesday The Fugue called the tune in the Musidora while a day later Dante winner Bonfire brought to mind Dante Alighieri's 14th century epic Inferno. Tomorrow Frankel, officially the best racehorse in the world, returns to action in Newbury's JLT Lockinge Stakes - a race for us all to savour (rather than bet on). It seems hardly plausible that four weeks ago his career was rumoured to be in serious doubt.

Having said that, I've been trying to find winners at Bangor... I still haven't quite recovered from not having taken an interest in an old favourite of mine, Hills Of Aran, who obliged at odds of 66/1 in the three mile handicap hurdle at Ludlow last night. So, the fallback plan was to have a good look at Sir Johnson on his hurdling debut at Aintree this evening but he's been taken out. As a colleague of mine regularly points out, 'racing, it's a game of regrets'.

Here's a couple of wagers I'm likely to regret...

Five of the eight runners in the novice chase (3.10) try regulation fences for the first time. Donald McCain's Golden Call is likely to be sent off favourite - his second to Ambion Wood at Perth reads well although the majority of his form in this country has been at three miles. Kauto Relko clearly posssess ability but didn't look the most reliable of jumpers when winning over course and distance last time while at least Kim Bailey's Mark Twain (by Rock Of Gibraltar!) has some reasonable chase form to his name, finishing third behind All For Free in a Class 3 handicap chase at Ludlow in December. Kim Bailey's charge isn't guaranteed to stay the trip; however, while Golden Call appears the percentage call, at the prices (6/1 in the tissue) I'm going to chance Mark Twain in a race where the favourite has only obliged once in the past seven renewals.

The same stable saddles up Mrs Peachey in the mares' bumper at 4.55 and she has the best form in the book but it's the newcomers that catch the eye. Nicky Henderson has entered Fabrika, Rebecca Curtis (50% strike rate with four wins from eight runs in the past fortnight) Gilded Article and Venetia Williams (31.58%  with six wins from 19 runs in the same timeframe) More Ballet Money. The Sporting Life Verdict makes a decent case for the latter-named, pointing out the mare is by Old Vic, cost £24,000 as a yearling and is the trainer's sole runner on the card; priced up at 14/1 in the tissue, I'll take an each-way interest in More Ballet Money.

Finally in the 4.20 I'll consider each-way terms about George Woolf who has had Richard Johnson in the plate for both his hurdle victories to date. The gelding ran no sort of race last time but is forgiven that run with Johnson back doing the steering - he has place claims at around the 14/1 mark. The good ground should suit and trainer Tim Vaughan boasts a strike rate of 26.09% in the past two weeks with six winners from 23 runners.

Down came the rain

A wet week at the races saw flag starts at Chester, Lingfield's classic trials moved to the all-weather and Saturday's Flat meeting at Warwick replaced with hurdle races (and a concert by The Undertones).

Staff at Warwick could be forgiven for thinking that it never rains but it pours.The course's application to build a 100-bed hotel was refused plannning permission by the local district council, much to the delight of local residents...  According to the Jockey Club, which owns and operates Warwick, the future of the course is now under threat yet earlier in the week the same Jockey Club reported record turnover, record crowds and record prize money contributions.

One who has been sweating up a little this 'shareholder spring' is William Hill CEO Ralph Topping. At the company's AGM on Tuesday 49.9% of shareholders voted against the executive pay deal; Mr Topping landed the spoils, a £1.2 million 'retention bonus', by a nose. Predicatably, opponents are demanding a stewards' inquiry.

One not complaining about the raining is Donald McCain; Ile De Re beat Overturn to give the trainer a 1-2 in Wednesday's Chester Cup. The Tote Exacta paid £139.00 but nobody on course will have collected as there are now no Tote pool betting facilities available at the track. 'Chesterbet' is the replacement offering but TV coverage gave more than a hint that the new service didn't offer the best of value. Channel Four's John Francome looked in a tight spot during Thursday's transmission: he was clearly disappointed with the return on a winning wager but intimated that the vast majority of punters at the track want to do two things - bet on a horse and watch it run. He went on to assert that they're not that bothered whether they get 4/1 or 6/1. Well, I think that one's open to some discussion...  Of course, none of this was a bother to Donald McCain who followed up his Chester Cup triumph by landing the Swinton at Haydock on Saturday with Red Merlin.

Finally, at a windswept Carlisle station last week, I absent-mindedly picked up a leaflet entitled 'Back A Winner - take the train and go racing for less!' The offer, from First TransPennine Express and Northern Rail, gives a discount of £2 off a £5 toteplacepot bet and up to £4 off entry to selected northern racecourses. A number of conditions need to be satisfied to claim your discount vouchers so, if you're interested, make sure your lawyer has a free five minutes before checking out the details... ;)

Guineas weekend at Newmarket

The focus shifts to the Flat now.

Cards on the table - I don't follow the Flat particularly closely, so those tempted may want to think again before jumping in feet first...

Eighteen have been declared for the 204th running of the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket where the going is currently described as soft and, according to layers, Aidan O'Brien's Camelot appears something of a shoo-in at around the 7/4 mark. Indeed Ladbrokes, who have long been rumoured to possess an 'inside line' to Ballydoyle, stand out from their competitors by offering just even money.

Those looking to oppose may be interested in Timeform's view that both Trumpet Major and Caspar Netscher are more highly rated. Caspar Netscher isn't guaranteed to stay a mile but is overpriced at 25/1, a point made by Topspeed, Dave Edwards, in the Weekender. Trumpet Major looked an impressive winner of the Craven while Power and French Fifteen are two others I've considered. The percentage each-way call is Power (12/1 Coral) who on official ratings is the top-rated animal in the field and won on soft ground at The Curragh last September.

I just wonder what affect, if any, the draw may have...

No selection put up for Sunday's 1000 Guineas but those interested in playing may find the Timeform ratings a decent starting point...