Yesterday at Kempton there was double delight for Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson with Captain Chris (2/5f) and Racing Post Chase winner Quinz (8/1) while at Newcastle the David Pipe and Tom Scudamore combination pulled off a similar stunt with Battle Group (5/1) and The Tracey Shuffle (6/5f). Better news from the Twiston-Davies team too with both Imperial Commander and Khyber Kim pleasing in their racecourse gallop; last year's Gold Cup winner had failed to impress in a previous piece of work at Warwick but it transpired he had raced with Oscar Magic who took the Kempton finale in some style and is now quoted at 20/1 (Coral) for the Festival bumper. If you agree with Nigel's view that Khyber Kim, second behind Binocular in last year's Champion Hurdle, is the forgotten horse this time around, then you'd be interested in the 25s available with several layers including Coral, Paddy Power, Victor Chandler and totesport.
All roads lead to Cheltenham at this time of year - or do they? Starluck put in a couple of sketchy leaps on his way to a facile win at Huntingdon on Thursday. Several bookmakers offer a miserly-looking 8/1 about this one for the Arkle; Stan James and Victor Chandler go 12s but I'm not tempted and in any case connections have yet to commit to the race. Two jocks sweating - Jason Maguire appeals on Thursday against a seven-day ban which, if upheld, will see him miss the ride on Peddlers Cross in the Champion Hurdle; Tom Scudamore was relieved to get just three days for careless riding aboard Dan Breen at Sandown on Friday.
Something different at this year's Festival - Ladies' Day has been moved to Wednesday to accommodate St Patrick's Day falling on the Thursday. Booking my Tatts tickets for the Wednesday, I was set something of a poser by those clever marketing chappies - pay the discounted price for a ticket (£37) or, alternatively, pay the full price (£45) with the promise of a full refund if a lady trainer has a winner on the day. Jessica Harrington trains the current favourite for the Neptune, Oscars Well, while Venetia Williams has several entries in the Coral Cup along with Tenor Nivernais and Pepite Rose in the Fred Winter. Being something of a cheapskate, I had no qualms whatsoever in taking the discounted price.
Question: When will the Raceform Update Guide to Cheltenham be available in my local newsagents?
Answer: From Friday 4th March.
More sample stats for Cheltenham, this time from the guys at Racing Trends who have compiled 10 year trends for all the major Festival races. For example, favourites have a dismal record in the William Hill Trophy on the opening day with just one win in the last 14 years and only three since 1969; having said that, six of the last ten to collect the spoils were positioned either second, third or fourth in the market. Nine of the last ten winners finished in the first three on their last run while all ten had a handicap rating between 129 and 143. From 59 qualifiers in the past decade, no horse carried 11 stones or more to victory. If you fancy more of the same, you'll need to get in touch with the team on the link above.
Warwickshire Life is the sort of publication you tend to find in a doctor's waiting-room and isn't one you'd consider buying unless, of course, you happened to frequent a particular social sphere... Yesterday though I purchased a copy of the March edition as it contains an enlightening four page article on the Waley-Cohen operation and Sam's attempt to become the first amateur jockey to win the Gold Cup since Mr Jim Wilson rode Little Owl to victory in 1981. In the history of the great race only two other amateurs have performed a similar feat - Mr Hugh Grosvenor aboard Thrown In in 1927 and Mr Richard Black on Fortina in 1947 - so Sam has set himself something of a challenge in bidding to win this year's renewal aboard his father's horse Long Run. Robert Waley-Cohen owns Upton Estate near Edgehill, Warwickshire while the National Trust maintains Upton House, described by Wikipedia as '..agreeable but of modest architectural significance'. Hmmm... For a day job Sam runs his own dentistry business, Portman Healthcare, so you can't but admire the commitment and determination as he fits in fitness training around a full day at the office. Yogi Breisner has been working with the team to iron out Long Run's jumping problems which had been evident in previous races but the King George performance at Kempton indicated a marked improvement and marked Long Run as a horse to be taken very seriously. Trainer Nicky Henderson rates him his best chance of a Gold Cup to date so, rest assured, no stone will be left unturned in an attempt to realise the dream. I wish Sam Waley-Cohen the very best of luck on Friday 18th March.
A piece of good news to finish on - Ruby Walsh was back in the saddle earlier today, partnering Mikael D'haguenet in a spin after racing at Leopardstown. Ruby intends to return to race-riding later this week, possibly at Taunton on Thursday.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
The Racing Post Chase or The Eider Chase?
Going through the form for tomorrow's Racing Post Chase at Kempton, I'm struck by the number of big stables that are currently struggling - in the past fortnight Nigel Twiston-Davies has recorded three wins from 37 runs; Philip Hobbs two from 27 runs; Jonjo O'Neill one from 21 runs; David Pipe one win from 22 runs while Tom George's last winner was over 50 days ago. Of the 17 declared for the Kempton feature, only six are set to carry 11 stones or more, yet in the past decade seven winners have carried 11 stones or more to victory, three having won with top weight (Gungadu 2008, Farmer Jack 2005 and Marlborough 2004). Last year Nacarat (11-8) tried to make all under Tony McCoy but was denied a neck by Razor Royale (10-5) ridden by Paddy Brennan; tomorrow Brennan is aboard Nacarat while McCoy rides likely favourite Fistral Beach who unseated Ruby Walsh at the second last year. At present both Nacarat and Razor Royale look a little out of form but I'd still consider the latter at a price as in the autumn Twiston-Davies put this one up as his best chance in a Gold Cup after Imperial Commander. 20/1 about Nicky Henderson's Polyfast looks quite big but the gelding doesn't look certain to stay so I'll have an each-way wager on Colin Tizzard's Hey Big Spender (14/1 totesport); all the major layers offer a quarter the odds the first four places.
Four declared for the Pendil and that is likely to be reduced to three as Kerada is considered doubtful this evening. Plenty will see this as a golden opportunity for Captain Chris to record his first win over the larger obstacles following his second behind Arkle hope Medermit at Sandown three weeks ago. Captian Chris wasn't foot perfect that day and given the stable form (see above - and two favourites turned over at Huntingdon on Thursday) I was tempted to oppose with Paul Nicholls' highly-regarded American Trilogy until I read the grey had jumped out left when winning over course and distance the last time.
The Adonis looks trappy. Paul Nicholls' French import Tonic Mellyse has his first run in this country and is priced up favourite. Nicky Henderson has won this previously with the likes of
Soldatino, Binocular and Punjabi -the Weekender suggested Celtus was likely to be that handler's entry but Celtus goes for the Dovecote while Molotoff runs in this. On official ratings Molotoff has something to find with a couple of these so I'm going out on a limb to back Maoi Chinn Tire each way at 25/1 or bigger. Granted, he carries top weight and we don't know how he'll cope with this right-handed track but trainer Jennie Candlish is in good form at the moment; she states in the Weekender her charge wasn't suited by Cheltenham the last time - I'm prepared to forgive that effort. Aintree is the plan so connections clearly hold the gelding in high regard; Jennie's partner Alan O'Keefe takes the ride.
In the Dovecote Celtus holds a Triumph Hurdle entry and is another having his first run in this country; over in France the gelding won three of his four starts, finishing second on his penultimate run. At the weights there's little to choose between this one and Paul Nicholls' Toubab. Toubab didn't appear to find a lot in the Tolworth the last time and the winner of that race, Minella Class, hardly franked the form at Huntingdon on Thursday, even if the starter did gift eventual winner Aikman a soft lead. The flat track here may suit Toubab better than Sandown but I'm still wondering whether he's something of a bridle horse - we should find out tomorrow. This evening they bet 5/2 Toubab 7/2 Celtus so Celtus gets the vote - in the last five years a four-year-old has collected the spoils on two occasions (Trenchant 2009, Escort'men 2010).
The Eider meeting at Newcastle, where the going is heavy, is subject to an early morning inspection. I note that Tom Scudamore, not one to turn down a long journey in the quest for a winner, rides here rather than at Kempton. If the meeting gets the green light I'll take a small each-way interest in Flintoff, part-owned by Freddie Flintoff. Somewhat like his owner, the chestnut gelding comes with something of a health warning but the stable is in good form and this slog in the mud should suit; there's the added advantage that conditioins will also slow the others down - William Hill offer 16/1 this evening.
Four declared for the Pendil and that is likely to be reduced to three as Kerada is considered doubtful this evening. Plenty will see this as a golden opportunity for Captain Chris to record his first win over the larger obstacles following his second behind Arkle hope Medermit at Sandown three weeks ago. Captian Chris wasn't foot perfect that day and given the stable form (see above - and two favourites turned over at Huntingdon on Thursday) I was tempted to oppose with Paul Nicholls' highly-regarded American Trilogy until I read the grey had jumped out left when winning over course and distance the last time.
The Adonis looks trappy. Paul Nicholls' French import Tonic Mellyse has his first run in this country and is priced up favourite. Nicky Henderson has won this previously with the likes of
Soldatino, Binocular and Punjabi -the Weekender suggested Celtus was likely to be that handler's entry but Celtus goes for the Dovecote while Molotoff runs in this. On official ratings Molotoff has something to find with a couple of these so I'm going out on a limb to back Maoi Chinn Tire each way at 25/1 or bigger. Granted, he carries top weight and we don't know how he'll cope with this right-handed track but trainer Jennie Candlish is in good form at the moment; she states in the Weekender her charge wasn't suited by Cheltenham the last time - I'm prepared to forgive that effort. Aintree is the plan so connections clearly hold the gelding in high regard; Jennie's partner Alan O'Keefe takes the ride.
In the Dovecote Celtus holds a Triumph Hurdle entry and is another having his first run in this country; over in France the gelding won three of his four starts, finishing second on his penultimate run. At the weights there's little to choose between this one and Paul Nicholls' Toubab. Toubab didn't appear to find a lot in the Tolworth the last time and the winner of that race, Minella Class, hardly franked the form at Huntingdon on Thursday, even if the starter did gift eventual winner Aikman a soft lead. The flat track here may suit Toubab better than Sandown but I'm still wondering whether he's something of a bridle horse - we should find out tomorrow. This evening they bet 5/2 Toubab 7/2 Celtus so Celtus gets the vote - in the last five years a four-year-old has collected the spoils on two occasions (Trenchant 2009, Escort'men 2010).
The Eider meeting at Newcastle, where the going is heavy, is subject to an early morning inspection. I note that Tom Scudamore, not one to turn down a long journey in the quest for a winner, rides here rather than at Kempton. If the meeting gets the green light I'll take a small each-way interest in Flintoff, part-owned by Freddie Flintoff. Somewhat like his owner, the chestnut gelding comes with something of a health warning but the stable is in good form and this slog in the mud should suit; there's the added advantage that conditioins will also slow the others down - William Hill offer 16/1 this evening.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Cheltenham's coming...
Thought I'd start this round-up with an update on the possible Festival longshots put up last week...
Mille Chief Took the Kingwell by a nose from Celestial Halo. The latter-named made a right hash of the last; Mille Chief looked booked for the runner's up berth before that error. Trainer Alan King tells us he'll be better on better ground and I'm sure he will but it was still disappointing in a race in which both Silviniaco Conti and Overturn didn't appear to run to their marks. 14/1 available in a number of places - if you're not holding an ante-post voucher at this point, I wouldn't be rushing out to get one.
Cue Card Trainer Colin Tizzard indicated the Supreme Novices' Hurdle rather than the Champion Hurdle is Cue Card's intended race at the Festival.
Tarablaze Jumped abysmally in the four runner novice chase won by Aiteen Thirtythree at Newbury on Friday. William Hill still go 25/1 for the RSA, Sky Bet offer 66/1. No longer of interest.
What A Friend Another I was ready to ditch after Newbury on Friday but, having seen the recording, I'm going to hold fire. The horse struggled on the ground, appearing to run in snatches. He's not the easiest of rides at the best of times; with Noland getting very tired after the last, there was a suspicion he could still have collected the spoils had Harry Skelton not switched his run. Of course, on official ratings he should have won with something to spare - handler Paul Nicholls indicated this performance wasn't anywhere near good enough to get placed in a Gold Cup and he'll consider applying the blinkers in the big race. The horse will improve for the better ground, something he hasn't had in his two races this season. Stan James and William Hill stand out with quotes of 50/1 - Boylesports go 20/1. Tempted?
China Rock Interesting to see Alistair Whitehouse-Jones make a similar case for this one in the Weekender. Trainer Mouse Morris confirmed his charge has come out of the Irish Hennessy well and goes for the Gold Cup. The $64,000 question is - will this son of Presenting stay? Whitehouse-Jones describes it as a grey area, with the dam from the same family as Zongalero and Garrison Savanagh. 66/1 still available with William Hill - a bigger price than What A Friend - I think I'm going to have an each-way dabble.
Other Cheltenham snippets - Imperial Commander had a racecourse gallop at Warwick on Monday. Afterwards handler Twiston-Davies said he was 'pleased' with his charge and was quoted as saying 'He went really well...' Later in the week the quality of that workout appeared to have deteriorated - in Friday's TV coverage it was described as 'satisfactory' while by Saturday the workout had become 'indifferent'. In the past fortnight the stable have had just two winners from thirty runs - the team at Grange Hill Farm have a month to get last year's winner to peak fitness.
Updated Festival prices following yesterday's action - Riverside Theatre 7/1 Ryanair Chase; Master Of The Hall 20/1 RSA Chase; Back In Focus 10/1, Court In Motion 10/1 Albert Bartlett.
If you make just one pre-Festival purchase make sure it's Paul Jones' Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2011 due to be published February 25th. On his Twitter account (@sportspunter01) Paul has put out some taster stats to whet your appetite... For example, all Gold Cup winners in the past 20 years had had at least one run after Christmas Day that season; over half the winners of the William Hill Trophy had been placed at the Festival previously; of the last twelve Arkle winners to contest the Champion Chase the following year, five won, five finished second and two were placed third. I'm off to place my order now!
Those who have in the past used the Gloucestershire Warwickshire Railway to arrive at Cheltenham Racecourse station for the Festival should be aware they will be unable to do so this year as the railway has had something of an annus horribilis with two separate landslips, one at Gotherington and the other at Chicken Curve, Winchcombe, causing damage that will cost over £2 million to repair. An emergency appeal has been launched which has the backing of that well-known railway fanatic, Pete Waterman.
A piece in the business section of Saturday's Times told us something betting shop regulars will have suspected for quite some time. Ladbrokes reported a 7.3% fall in their 'over-the-counter' bets last year but gaming machines were up 7.2%...
Finally, if Ant and Dec are to your taste, there's a chance you'll bump into them on a racecourse this summer. They've bought Primaeval, a four year old chestnut colt trained by James Fanshawe. Apparently Dec bought the horse for his father as a Christmas present - I've been dropping subtle hints to Mrs Tips along similar lines but, to date, I've nothing concrete to report. Rest assured, you'll be the first to know should the unlikely ever come to pass.
Mille Chief Took the Kingwell by a nose from Celestial Halo. The latter-named made a right hash of the last; Mille Chief looked booked for the runner's up berth before that error. Trainer Alan King tells us he'll be better on better ground and I'm sure he will but it was still disappointing in a race in which both Silviniaco Conti and Overturn didn't appear to run to their marks. 14/1 available in a number of places - if you're not holding an ante-post voucher at this point, I wouldn't be rushing out to get one.
Cue Card Trainer Colin Tizzard indicated the Supreme Novices' Hurdle rather than the Champion Hurdle is Cue Card's intended race at the Festival.
Tarablaze Jumped abysmally in the four runner novice chase won by Aiteen Thirtythree at Newbury on Friday. William Hill still go 25/1 for the RSA, Sky Bet offer 66/1. No longer of interest.
What A Friend Another I was ready to ditch after Newbury on Friday but, having seen the recording, I'm going to hold fire. The horse struggled on the ground, appearing to run in snatches. He's not the easiest of rides at the best of times; with Noland getting very tired after the last, there was a suspicion he could still have collected the spoils had Harry Skelton not switched his run. Of course, on official ratings he should have won with something to spare - handler Paul Nicholls indicated this performance wasn't anywhere near good enough to get placed in a Gold Cup and he'll consider applying the blinkers in the big race. The horse will improve for the better ground, something he hasn't had in his two races this season. Stan James and William Hill stand out with quotes of 50/1 - Boylesports go 20/1. Tempted?
China Rock Interesting to see Alistair Whitehouse-Jones make a similar case for this one in the Weekender. Trainer Mouse Morris confirmed his charge has come out of the Irish Hennessy well and goes for the Gold Cup. The $64,000 question is - will this son of Presenting stay? Whitehouse-Jones describes it as a grey area, with the dam from the same family as Zongalero and Garrison Savanagh. 66/1 still available with William Hill - a bigger price than What A Friend - I think I'm going to have an each-way dabble.
Other Cheltenham snippets - Imperial Commander had a racecourse gallop at Warwick on Monday. Afterwards handler Twiston-Davies said he was 'pleased' with his charge and was quoted as saying 'He went really well...' Later in the week the quality of that workout appeared to have deteriorated - in Friday's TV coverage it was described as 'satisfactory' while by Saturday the workout had become 'indifferent'. In the past fortnight the stable have had just two winners from thirty runs - the team at Grange Hill Farm have a month to get last year's winner to peak fitness.
Updated Festival prices following yesterday's action - Riverside Theatre 7/1 Ryanair Chase; Master Of The Hall 20/1 RSA Chase; Back In Focus 10/1, Court In Motion 10/1 Albert Bartlett.
If you make just one pre-Festival purchase make sure it's Paul Jones' Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2011 due to be published February 25th. On his Twitter account (@sportspunter01) Paul has put out some taster stats to whet your appetite... For example, all Gold Cup winners in the past 20 years had had at least one run after Christmas Day that season; over half the winners of the William Hill Trophy had been placed at the Festival previously; of the last twelve Arkle winners to contest the Champion Chase the following year, five won, five finished second and two were placed third. I'm off to place my order now!
Those who have in the past used the Gloucestershire Warwickshire Railway to arrive at Cheltenham Racecourse station for the Festival should be aware they will be unable to do so this year as the railway has had something of an annus horribilis with two separate landslips, one at Gotherington and the other at Chicken Curve, Winchcombe, causing damage that will cost over £2 million to repair. An emergency appeal has been launched which has the backing of that well-known railway fanatic, Pete Waterman.
A piece in the business section of Saturday's Times told us something betting shop regulars will have suspected for quite some time. Ladbrokes reported a 7.3% fall in their 'over-the-counter' bets last year but gaming machines were up 7.2%...
Finally, if Ant and Dec are to your taste, there's a chance you'll bump into them on a racecourse this summer. They've bought Primaeval, a four year old chestnut colt trained by James Fanshawe. Apparently Dec bought the horse for his father as a Christmas present - I've been dropping subtle hints to Mrs Tips along similar lines but, to date, I've nothing concrete to report. Rest assured, you'll be the first to know should the unlikely ever come to pass.
Friday, February 18, 2011
From Ascot to Wincanton via Haydock
If identifying a vulnerable favourite is half the battle, there are three forecast at Ascot I won't be taking on... In the feature Betfair Ascot Chase, Riverside Theatre has, on official ratings, nine pounds and upwards in hand over his six rivals and looks the one to beat. Pride Of Dulcote will have his supporters but the gelding had a wasted trip to Leopardstown a fortnight ago when that meeting was abandoned and the form of his head defeat of Punchestowns at Newbury wasn't franked by that one the next time at Kempton, even though Punchestowns ended up winning the race by eleven lengths. I've always thought Tartak something of an enigma but Paddy Brennan's record on the horse speaks for itself - five wins from eight rides.
Sprinter Sacre, described recently as the apple of Nicky Henderson's eye, is as low as 10/1 for the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham. He's expected to oblige in the 4.05 but will be no price.
Persian Snow went into many notebooks when winning over course and distance last October. That was run on good ground - perhaps connections are slightly wary of underfoot conditions here as they've opted to fit a tongue-tie this time.
Of the four in the Reynoldstown I prefer Master Of The Hall to The Minack. Having said that, there's nothing between them on ratings and The Minack beat Nicky Henderson's charge fifteen lengths in a novice hurdle at Huntingdon a year ago...
There's a decent card at Haydock where the feature is the Grand National Trial at 3.20. Fourteen face the starter for what looks likely to be one long slog in the mud; the going on the chase track is reported to be heavy, soft in places and further rain is expected. Aidan Coleman has been sweet on Mobaasher for a while now and the chestnut gelding gets another mention on his blog this evening. I'll take a small each-way interest in Le Beau Bai who will relish conditions; the stable is in fine form (three wins from 11 runners in past fortnight) and conditional rider Jake Greenall takes off a handy-looking seven pounds.
One of Aidan's I will bet provided the gelding isn't priced up favourite is Houbon Des Obeaux (1.40) who looked impressive behind Marsh Warbler on his first run in this country.
Court In Motion, currently 6/1 favourite for the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham, goes in the 2.10 and on ratings is entitled to win with something to spare. He'll be a short price but I wouldn't be tempted as the yard has been a bit in and out of late.
Over at Wincanton five go in what looks a fascinating renewal of the Kingwell. In the Weekender Alan King is bullish enough about Mille Chief, although he does caution the horse is better on better ground. Overturn is likely to run his race from the front and won't be easy to pass but at this evening's prices 4/1 Silviniaco Conti (bet365, SkyBet) looks value. Admittedly he has to give weight to all his opponents but his third behind Menorah (9/2 in places for the Champion Hurdle) conceding four pounds in the International at Cheltenham comes right out of the top drawer. For me, the stand-out feature of Paul Nicholls' charge is the speed with which he takes his hurdles.
Sprinter Sacre, described recently as the apple of Nicky Henderson's eye, is as low as 10/1 for the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham. He's expected to oblige in the 4.05 but will be no price.
Persian Snow went into many notebooks when winning over course and distance last October. That was run on good ground - perhaps connections are slightly wary of underfoot conditions here as they've opted to fit a tongue-tie this time.
Of the four in the Reynoldstown I prefer Master Of The Hall to The Minack. Having said that, there's nothing between them on ratings and The Minack beat Nicky Henderson's charge fifteen lengths in a novice hurdle at Huntingdon a year ago...
There's a decent card at Haydock where the feature is the Grand National Trial at 3.20. Fourteen face the starter for what looks likely to be one long slog in the mud; the going on the chase track is reported to be heavy, soft in places and further rain is expected. Aidan Coleman has been sweet on Mobaasher for a while now and the chestnut gelding gets another mention on his blog this evening. I'll take a small each-way interest in Le Beau Bai who will relish conditions; the stable is in fine form (three wins from 11 runners in past fortnight) and conditional rider Jake Greenall takes off a handy-looking seven pounds.
One of Aidan's I will bet provided the gelding isn't priced up favourite is Houbon Des Obeaux (1.40) who looked impressive behind Marsh Warbler on his first run in this country.
Court In Motion, currently 6/1 favourite for the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham, goes in the 2.10 and on ratings is entitled to win with something to spare. He'll be a short price but I wouldn't be tempted as the yard has been a bit in and out of late.
Over at Wincanton five go in what looks a fascinating renewal of the Kingwell. In the Weekender Alan King is bullish enough about Mille Chief, although he does caution the horse is better on better ground. Overturn is likely to run his race from the front and won't be easy to pass but at this evening's prices 4/1 Silviniaco Conti (bet365, SkyBet) looks value. Admittedly he has to give weight to all his opponents but his third behind Menorah (9/2 in places for the Champion Hurdle) conceding four pounds in the International at Cheltenham comes right out of the top drawer. For me, the stand-out feature of Paul Nicholls' charge is the speed with which he takes his hurdles.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
A sad weekend for racing
There were traumatic scenes at Newbury yesterday as two horses, Fenix Two and Marching Song, collapsed and died in the parade ring before the opening race. The horses appear to have been electrocuted - the suspicion is an underground cable may have been disturbed during recent maintenance work; this evening The Sporting Life reports a section of cable has been removed from the racecourse paddock area. Two other horses, Kid Cassidy and The Merry Giant, were also affected; Kid Cassidy was withdrawn at the start while The Merry Giant was allowed to take his chance in the opener but was reported 'badly traumatised' after the race. Once the seriousness of the incident became apparent, the remainder of the card was rightly abandoned, with the racecourse offering racegoers a full money refund. The BHA intend to make a further statement tomorrow.
In what has turned out to be a disastrous weekend for horse-racing, both Money Trix and Glencove Marina suffered fatal injuries in the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown while at Warwick Colin Tizzard's Kilmurry had to be put down following an injury sustained at the penultimate flight in the Kingmaker.
Newbury also managed to make the headlines in The Times' business section on Saturday - Guiness Peat Group, which owns a 29.9% stake in the racecourse, is looking to sell off its investment portfolio. Ever fancied a share in a racecourse?
With the Cheltenham Festival little over a month away, I need to do some homework on a few potential longshots. Here's an initial list that needs plenty of work but might prove a useful starting point...
Mille Chief - 14/1 Champion Hurdle (totesport). Likely to run in the Kingwell at Wincanton.
Cue Card - 33/1 Champion Hurdle (Stan James). Colin Tizzard writing in the Weekender says a decision will be taken on Cue Card's Festival target by the weekend.
Knockara Beau - 16/1 Pertemps Final. Looks to have benifitted from return to hurdling. Fifth in Ballymore / Neptune Novices' Hurdle 2009 behind Mikael D'haguenet.
The Giant Bolster - 25/1 RSA Chase. Not the quickest but will be staying on when others have cried enough - a blog favourite.
Tarablaze - 25/1 RSA Chase. Well backed in the past few days.
Captain Cee Bee - 12/1 Champion Chase (totesport). McCoy rated this one his best chance of a winner at last year's Festival but the horse broke a blood vessel in the Arkle. Went on to win Ryanair Novice Chase at Punchestown.
What A Friend - 40/1 Gold Cup (Coral). Looks overpriced on Aintree Bowl victory last April.
China Rock - 66/1 Gold Cup. Not certain to line up and several question marks over his stamina - will he come up hill? Probably not, but the price is big and he's likely to appreciate good ground.
Finally, finishing on a much-needed lighter note, the Daily Mail recently reported Welsh Cob Basil the stallion likes to pop down to his local, The Meynell Ingram Arms in Burton, Staffordshire, for a pint of Marston's Pedigree. If you're asking, Basil, mine's a Guinness...
In what has turned out to be a disastrous weekend for horse-racing, both Money Trix and Glencove Marina suffered fatal injuries in the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown while at Warwick Colin Tizzard's Kilmurry had to be put down following an injury sustained at the penultimate flight in the Kingmaker.
Newbury also managed to make the headlines in The Times' business section on Saturday - Guiness Peat Group, which owns a 29.9% stake in the racecourse, is looking to sell off its investment portfolio. Ever fancied a share in a racecourse?
With the Cheltenham Festival little over a month away, I need to do some homework on a few potential longshots. Here's an initial list that needs plenty of work but might prove a useful starting point...
Mille Chief - 14/1 Champion Hurdle (totesport). Likely to run in the Kingwell at Wincanton.
Cue Card - 33/1 Champion Hurdle (Stan James). Colin Tizzard writing in the Weekender says a decision will be taken on Cue Card's Festival target by the weekend.
Knockara Beau - 16/1 Pertemps Final. Looks to have benifitted from return to hurdling. Fifth in Ballymore / Neptune Novices' Hurdle 2009 behind Mikael D'haguenet.
The Giant Bolster - 25/1 RSA Chase. Not the quickest but will be staying on when others have cried enough - a blog favourite.
Tarablaze - 25/1 RSA Chase. Well backed in the past few days.
Captain Cee Bee - 12/1 Champion Chase (totesport). McCoy rated this one his best chance of a winner at last year's Festival but the horse broke a blood vessel in the Arkle. Went on to win Ryanair Novice Chase at Punchestown.
What A Friend - 40/1 Gold Cup (Coral). Looks overpriced on Aintree Bowl victory last April.
China Rock - 66/1 Gold Cup. Not certain to line up and several question marks over his stamina - will he come up hill? Probably not, but the price is big and he's likely to appreciate good ground.
Finally, finishing on a much-needed lighter note, the Daily Mail recently reported Welsh Cob Basil the stallion likes to pop down to his local, The Meynell Ingram Arms in Burton, Staffordshire, for a pint of Marston's Pedigree. If you're asking, Basil, mine's a Guinness...
Friday, February 11, 2011
Quick thoughts on Newbury, Warwick & Leopardstown
Punchestowns took the Graduation Chase at Kempton earlier today and in the process helped Nicky Henderson reach 2,000 career wins but for much of the trip the 4/6 favourite looked in trouble behind the front-running Pasco. However the grey slowed markedly up the home straight thereby allowing Barry Geraghty to galvanise his mount to an improbable eleven length victory. Pasco finished distressed in second; after the race trainer Paul Nicholls sent out a tweet indicating the grey had choked and would be sent for a breathing operation in due course.
Newbury hosts a top class card tomorrow, the totesport Trophy Hurdle at 3.35 the big betting race of the day. With twenty three set to face the starter, several layers bet each-way a quarter the odds five places including sponsors totesport, Sky Bet and Paddy Power. Since 1980 seven winners have carried more than 11 stones - Grey Salute (1989); Deep Sensation (1990); Make A Stand (1997); Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000); Copeland (2002) and Essex (2005). In that period no horse has won carrying more than 11-7, an ominous-looking stat for a number of fancied chances near the top of the handicap. David Pipe's pair, Ronaldo Des Mottes and Notus De La Tour, caught my eye. The former was second in this last year but has an additional twelve pounds on his back this time while Notus De LaTour has had this as his main target for the season. This evening Notus is 16/1 with Coral while Ronaldo is 22/1 with bet365 who bet five places. In an impossible race, I'm going to have an each-way dabble on Evan Williams' Tarkari who had a warm-up at Ffos Las last week. Formerly with Willie Mullins, Tarkari is generally available at 25/1, although I note stable jockey Paul Moloney has opted to ride Tiger O'Toole...
Six in the Game Spirit but it looks trappy now pre-race favourite Woolcombe Folly has been withdrawn following a bad scope. I'll side with French Opera provided the rain stays away.
The Aon looks between Riverside Theatre, part-owned by actor James Nesbitt and What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. The Manchester United manager may be known for winning but his horse faces a stiff task here conceding four pounds to an opponent officially rated nine pounds higher. Riverside Theatre hasn't won at this trip but his performance behind Long Run in the King George appears to have dispelled any lingering fears...
Keeping up the footballing connection, Harry Redknapp owns Bygones In Brid who takes his chance in the bumper. Trainer Alan King put this one up as one to monitor a few weeks ago but since then the gelding missed an intended engagement at Wincanton as connections weren't totally happy. He runs here but is probably best watched on this occasion (a comment that could apply to Harry's team, Tottenham Hotspur, perhaps?)
Only three in the 4.05 but I'd be tempted to take a chance on Philip Hobbs' Tarablaze following reports the gelding was backed earlier today for the RSA Chase at the Festival next month. In a RP stable tour article published last October the handler said '... he's certainly one we are very much looking forward to.' Coral are currently best-priced 33/1 about Tarablaze for the Cheltenham showpiece.
At Warwick four go in the Kingmaker where current Arkle favourite Finian's Rainbow will be expected to collect the spoils. Writing in the Weekender handler Colin Tizzard is bullish enough about Kilmurry. This one gave Ghizao eight pounds and an eleven length beating at Cheltenham in October but the form was dramatically reversed four weeks later. Tizzard tells us to ignore that defeat as the horse returned with a problem. He's been off since and is likely to need this, especially with the stable struggling to emerge from a quiet spell, but he's currently 33/1 for the Arkle (William Hill) which makes some appeal each-way.
At Leopardstown Quel Espirt is a play against enigmatic favourite Mikael D'haguenet in the Dr. P. J. Moriarty Novice Chase while in the Hennessy totesport's 9/1 about joint top-rated China Rock looks worth an each-way interest.
Newbury hosts a top class card tomorrow, the totesport Trophy Hurdle at 3.35 the big betting race of the day. With twenty three set to face the starter, several layers bet each-way a quarter the odds five places including sponsors totesport, Sky Bet and Paddy Power. Since 1980 seven winners have carried more than 11 stones - Grey Salute (1989); Deep Sensation (1990); Make A Stand (1997); Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000); Copeland (2002) and Essex (2005). In that period no horse has won carrying more than 11-7, an ominous-looking stat for a number of fancied chances near the top of the handicap. David Pipe's pair, Ronaldo Des Mottes and Notus De La Tour, caught my eye. The former was second in this last year but has an additional twelve pounds on his back this time while Notus De LaTour has had this as his main target for the season. This evening Notus is 16/1 with Coral while Ronaldo is 22/1 with bet365 who bet five places. In an impossible race, I'm going to have an each-way dabble on Evan Williams' Tarkari who had a warm-up at Ffos Las last week. Formerly with Willie Mullins, Tarkari is generally available at 25/1, although I note stable jockey Paul Moloney has opted to ride Tiger O'Toole...
Six in the Game Spirit but it looks trappy now pre-race favourite Woolcombe Folly has been withdrawn following a bad scope. I'll side with French Opera provided the rain stays away.
The Aon looks between Riverside Theatre, part-owned by actor James Nesbitt and What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. The Manchester United manager may be known for winning but his horse faces a stiff task here conceding four pounds to an opponent officially rated nine pounds higher. Riverside Theatre hasn't won at this trip but his performance behind Long Run in the King George appears to have dispelled any lingering fears...
Keeping up the footballing connection, Harry Redknapp owns Bygones In Brid who takes his chance in the bumper. Trainer Alan King put this one up as one to monitor a few weeks ago but since then the gelding missed an intended engagement at Wincanton as connections weren't totally happy. He runs here but is probably best watched on this occasion (a comment that could apply to Harry's team, Tottenham Hotspur, perhaps?)
Only three in the 4.05 but I'd be tempted to take a chance on Philip Hobbs' Tarablaze following reports the gelding was backed earlier today for the RSA Chase at the Festival next month. In a RP stable tour article published last October the handler said '... he's certainly one we are very much looking forward to.' Coral are currently best-priced 33/1 about Tarablaze for the Cheltenham showpiece.
At Warwick four go in the Kingmaker where current Arkle favourite Finian's Rainbow will be expected to collect the spoils. Writing in the Weekender handler Colin Tizzard is bullish enough about Kilmurry. This one gave Ghizao eight pounds and an eleven length beating at Cheltenham in October but the form was dramatically reversed four weeks later. Tizzard tells us to ignore that defeat as the horse returned with a problem. He's been off since and is likely to need this, especially with the stable struggling to emerge from a quiet spell, but he's currently 33/1 for the Arkle (William Hill) which makes some appeal each-way.
At Leopardstown Quel Espirt is a play against enigmatic favourite Mikael D'haguenet in the Dr. P. J. Moriarty Novice Chase while in the Hennessy totesport's 9/1 about joint top-rated China Rock looks worth an each-way interest.
Sunday, February 06, 2011
Odds 'n' sods
The Irish Hennessy Gold Cup meeting at Leopardstown was abandoned earlier today on account of a waterlogged track; the fixture has been rescheduled for Saturday 12th February. Paul Nicholls' Pride Of Dulcote, ante-post favourite for the big race, will now be aimed at Ascot's Betfair Chase on Saturday 19th February but stablemate Indian Daudaie stays over in Ireland for the re-arranged fixture.
Nicky Henderson's champion hurdle entries Binocular and Oscar Whisky won their respective races yesterday at long odds-on. Binocular didn't look that impressive when beating 116-rated stablemate Ruthenoise one and three quarter lengths at Sandown but Oscar Whisky scooted through the Ffos Las mud to beat Black Jack Blues eight lengths. The suspicion is Oscar Whisky would need soft ground come March to show his best in the Champion Hurdle; the layers make Oscar Whisky a 14/1 chance while Binocular still heads the market at 100/30.
A feature of Medermit's victory in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase was his jumping; Alan King's grey held the fast-finishing Captain Chris half a length at the post. In the circumstances Captain Chris did well to be thereabouts given he threw in a couple of novicey leaps on the way round. Medermit is generally 6/1 for the Arkle but totesport have taken a stance against Captain Chris offering 14/1.
There was a delay to the Grade 3 totescoop6 Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown after Nicky Henderson's Lush Life spread a plate at the start. The gelding behaved impeccably as the TV cameras transmitted close-up pictures of the farrier doing his work. If the farrier was the hero, the villain was the starter who let the tape go before the 8/1 chance could rejoin the rest of the field - Lush Life lost any chance at the start, finishing eleventh of the twenty runners. The Sporting Life reports Lush Life 'detached from remainder when starter let tape go' and recorded one bet of £9000-£1000; that unfortunate punter, together with many others, was denied a fair run for his money.
Nicky Henderson's champion hurdle entries Binocular and Oscar Whisky won their respective races yesterday at long odds-on. Binocular didn't look that impressive when beating 116-rated stablemate Ruthenoise one and three quarter lengths at Sandown but Oscar Whisky scooted through the Ffos Las mud to beat Black Jack Blues eight lengths. The suspicion is Oscar Whisky would need soft ground come March to show his best in the Champion Hurdle; the layers make Oscar Whisky a 14/1 chance while Binocular still heads the market at 100/30.
A feature of Medermit's victory in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase was his jumping; Alan King's grey held the fast-finishing Captain Chris half a length at the post. In the circumstances Captain Chris did well to be thereabouts given he threw in a couple of novicey leaps on the way round. Medermit is generally 6/1 for the Arkle but totesport have taken a stance against Captain Chris offering 14/1.
There was a delay to the Grade 3 totescoop6 Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown after Nicky Henderson's Lush Life spread a plate at the start. The gelding behaved impeccably as the TV cameras transmitted close-up pictures of the farrier doing his work. If the farrier was the hero, the villain was the starter who let the tape go before the 8/1 chance could rejoin the rest of the field - Lush Life lost any chance at the start, finishing eleventh of the twenty runners. The Sporting Life reports Lush Life 'detached from remainder when starter let tape go' and recorded one bet of £9000-£1000; that unfortunate punter, together with many others, was denied a fair run for his money.
Friday, February 04, 2011
Some Saturday selections
Quick post this evening as I want to catch the Wales v. England rugby international. Dai Walters, the founder and owner of Ffos Las racecourse, will be hoping Wales can win tonight's match and that his horse Oscar Whisky makes it a double in the Welsh Champion Hurdle tomorrow. The layers think Whisky Oscar is something of a shoo-in (1/5) but they price England 4/7 favourites for tonight's encounter - Wales are 15/8 in spite of the home advantage.
In the three and a half mile chase at the Welsh track I'll chance I'moncloudnine who ran well to finish third in the Welsh National at Chepstow four weeks ago on ground that wouldn't necessarily suit. He sports first-time cheekpieces here which may bring out some improvement; Barry Geraghty, who looks to have a decent book of rides, is in the plate. The slight concern is the yard hasn't had a winner since January 13th.
At Sandown champion hurdler Binocular will face just three opponents at 1.55 - the next best horse is rated some 36 pounds inferior; as a result Binocular is priced 1/12 in tonight's tissue. The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase is far more competitive. After a comment in last Sunday's post about Robinson Collonges, I was looking forward to seeing that one taking his chance here but Paul Nicholls has entered front-runner Rebel Du Maquis instead. This one was beaten seven and a quarter lengths into third by Reve De Sivola and Wishfull Thinking the last time; on that occasion he was conceding eight pounds to the winner while the second franked the form with an impressive victory at the Cheltenham Trials Day meeting last week. Jonjo O'Neill saddles Rock Noir who hasn't raced over the distance in this country; in addition the stable has had a quiet time of it lately (3 wins from 33 runners in past fortnight). Big things were expected of Captain Chris this season - he's finished second three times but has bumped into a couple of smart performers in Silviniaco Conti and Ghizao; tomorrow should tell us more but on official ratings he has a bit to find with a few of these. Medermit is the top-rated animal and priced up the 7/2 market leader this evening; the favourite has won six of the last ten runnings. Second last time out in the Dipper, pilot Choc Thornton was disappointed to be beaten by Hell's Bay over two miles five - I've seen a comment from him this week saying that, with hindsight, he'd have ridden a different race. An open event - I'll side with Alan King's grey Medermit.
In the three mile totesport Masters Handicap Chase Philip Hobbs' Leading Contender appears nicely weighted - he doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock and is the tentative suggestion. Looking through a stable tour article from last October, the handler informs us the key is likely to be the jumping - the gelding isn't a natural but ran well enough for a long way behind Nicto De Beauchenne over course and distance the last time.
Only five go in the Towton at Wetherby but Ferdy Murphy had a good word for Hollo Ladies the other day. Ian Williams' Wayward Prince is bound to be popular but at the weights Murphy's charge has three pounds in hand and rates a play against the favourite at around 3/1.
In the three and a half mile chase at the Welsh track I'll chance I'moncloudnine who ran well to finish third in the Welsh National at Chepstow four weeks ago on ground that wouldn't necessarily suit. He sports first-time cheekpieces here which may bring out some improvement; Barry Geraghty, who looks to have a decent book of rides, is in the plate. The slight concern is the yard hasn't had a winner since January 13th.
At Sandown champion hurdler Binocular will face just three opponents at 1.55 - the next best horse is rated some 36 pounds inferior; as a result Binocular is priced 1/12 in tonight's tissue. The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase is far more competitive. After a comment in last Sunday's post about Robinson Collonges, I was looking forward to seeing that one taking his chance here but Paul Nicholls has entered front-runner Rebel Du Maquis instead. This one was beaten seven and a quarter lengths into third by Reve De Sivola and Wishfull Thinking the last time; on that occasion he was conceding eight pounds to the winner while the second franked the form with an impressive victory at the Cheltenham Trials Day meeting last week. Jonjo O'Neill saddles Rock Noir who hasn't raced over the distance in this country; in addition the stable has had a quiet time of it lately (3 wins from 33 runners in past fortnight). Big things were expected of Captain Chris this season - he's finished second three times but has bumped into a couple of smart performers in Silviniaco Conti and Ghizao; tomorrow should tell us more but on official ratings he has a bit to find with a few of these. Medermit is the top-rated animal and priced up the 7/2 market leader this evening; the favourite has won six of the last ten runnings. Second last time out in the Dipper, pilot Choc Thornton was disappointed to be beaten by Hell's Bay over two miles five - I've seen a comment from him this week saying that, with hindsight, he'd have ridden a different race. An open event - I'll side with Alan King's grey Medermit.
In the three mile totesport Masters Handicap Chase Philip Hobbs' Leading Contender appears nicely weighted - he doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock and is the tentative suggestion. Looking through a stable tour article from last October, the handler informs us the key is likely to be the jumping - the gelding isn't a natural but ran well enough for a long way behind Nicto De Beauchenne over course and distance the last time.
Only five go in the Towton at Wetherby but Ferdy Murphy had a good word for Hollo Ladies the other day. Ian Williams' Wayward Prince is bound to be popular but at the weights Murphy's charge has three pounds in hand and rates a play against the favourite at around 3/1.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
The day after the Trials
Two stand-out performances at yesterday's Trials Day were Grand Crus' victory in the Cleeve and Wishfull Thinking's display in the Murphy Group Chase. Grand Crus is now 3/1 second favourite for the World Hurdle while Philip Hobbs indicated connections will wait for the ground before deciding whether to go for the Jewson or the RSA with Wishfull Thinking. Generally I don't tend to play ante-post but the RSA market looks rather lop-sided at the moment - Time For Rupert 5/2, 14/1 bar. I always think a trouble-free preparation is important for Cheltenham and the RSA favourite missed his appointment here on account of a low-grade infection. Wishfull Thinking is 16/1 for the RSA, 10/1 for the Jewson but those prices led me to consider Robinson Collonges who has now missed his intended race on two consecutive Saturdays as a result of abandonments. Back at the beginning of November Paul Nicholls' charge looked to be running all over Wishfull Thinking in a novice chase at Wincanton but crumpled on landing three from home; current quotes about Robinson Collonges include 33/1 for the RSA, 20/1 for the Jewson and 14/1 for the Centenary Novices Chase (which is to be run on the opening day).
Along with many I suspect, I wasn't impressed with Punchestown's jumping in the Argento but after the race Nicky Henderson indicated Barry Geraghty "...was very pleased with his jumping." The handler is keen to get another run into a horse that takes "...a massive amount of work to get ready."
Talking of trials, a couple of weeks back I was offered a free one by Dave Rensham at Racing Trends and I decided to take up the offer. Dave's email cribsheet has landed in the inbox on a daily basis and contains a wealth of statistical information on the following day's racing. Now I know stats are stats and they're not necessarily for everybody but I think they're useful in exploring different angles - of particular interest to me were the positive / negative sire stats together with pace stats - suitable 'in running' trading opportunities were highlighted. Further details are available on the website - a monthly subscription costs £29.99 which works out at just under £1 a day.
The 'all new' Morning Line hit our screens for the first time on Saturday but looked remarkably similar to the old version with a few gimmicks and cosmetic changes thrown in (including a cyan settee that presenter Nick Luck seemed particularly proud of for some reason.) The Mac and Tania's Betting Guide item, in which a guy called Hamish, sporting a tweed jacket, asked about the different types of bets he could strike, didn't really work, neither did the technology in the attempted Skype-type link up with trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies, ironically based ten miles or so down the road... Kim Bailey's impressive performance in the Guest Test just about saved the day.
Taken from Saturday's Times Magazine - What I've learnt by A.P. McCoy:
"Racing has never been a rich man's sport."
I'm with you there, Tony.
Mind you, I'm sure several owners would tell us that even if you come into this game rich, you won't be leaving it rich...
Finally, with Cheltenham just over six weeks away, it seems a bit early to be talking about Grand Nationals but apparently the good people of Harrogate are set to play host to the UK's first 'rabbit grand national'. Quick - pass me tablets - I can feel a headache coming on.
Along with many I suspect, I wasn't impressed with Punchestown's jumping in the Argento but after the race Nicky Henderson indicated Barry Geraghty "...was very pleased with his jumping." The handler is keen to get another run into a horse that takes "...a massive amount of work to get ready."
Talking of trials, a couple of weeks back I was offered a free one by Dave Rensham at Racing Trends and I decided to take up the offer. Dave's email cribsheet has landed in the inbox on a daily basis and contains a wealth of statistical information on the following day's racing. Now I know stats are stats and they're not necessarily for everybody but I think they're useful in exploring different angles - of particular interest to me were the positive / negative sire stats together with pace stats - suitable 'in running' trading opportunities were highlighted. Further details are available on the website - a monthly subscription costs £29.99 which works out at just under £1 a day.
The 'all new' Morning Line hit our screens for the first time on Saturday but looked remarkably similar to the old version with a few gimmicks and cosmetic changes thrown in (including a cyan settee that presenter Nick Luck seemed particularly proud of for some reason.) The Mac and Tania's Betting Guide item, in which a guy called Hamish, sporting a tweed jacket, asked about the different types of bets he could strike, didn't really work, neither did the technology in the attempted Skype-type link up with trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies, ironically based ten miles or so down the road... Kim Bailey's impressive performance in the Guest Test just about saved the day.
Taken from Saturday's Times Magazine - What I've learnt by A.P. McCoy:
"Racing has never been a rich man's sport."
I'm with you there, Tony.
Mind you, I'm sure several owners would tell us that even if you come into this game rich, you won't be leaving it rich...
Finally, with Cheltenham just over six weeks away, it seems a bit early to be talking about Grand Nationals but apparently the good people of Harrogate are set to play host to the UK's first 'rabbit grand national'. Quick - pass me tablets - I can feel a headache coming on.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Festival Trials Day
Inspections have been called for tomorrow's three turf cards at Cheltenham (8.45 am), Doncaster (7.30 am) and Uttoxeter (8.00am). One of the features at Cheltenham's Festival Trials Day is the Argento Chase at 2.30 in which six are set to face the starter (although Taranis is declared doubtful this evening); the disappointment is that current RSA Chase favourite Time For Rupert misses this after contracting a mild infection. Punchestowns is likely to head the market depsite being beaten a head by Pride Of Dulcote the last time; that race was run in a fast time and, writing in the Weekender, Nick Mordin states he 'won't hear of defeat for him [Punchestowns]'. On official ratings Tidal Bay is the best horse but you couldn't depend on him to put his best foot forward while Coral's 10/1 about Neptune Collonges would have looked big once upon a time but the grey has been out of sorts in two runs this term following 18 months on the sidelines. The Tother One is a tricky hold-up sort of a ride so I'm wondering whether McCoy may try to make all on Neptune Collonges... I'm not overly confident about Punchestowns who doesn't have that much chase form to his name - I'm not going to play.
Sixteen declared for the Cleeve at 3.35 in which Tidal Bay beat Time For Rupert five lengths last year. Tom Scudamore has been particularly bullish about Grand Crus, pointing out he thinks this one can give Big Buck's a run for his money in the World Hurdle come March. If that's to come about, the grey will need to take this and he may just prefer a bit more juice in the ground. Plenty have tipped up Alan King's Bensalem but I'll have an each-way wager at 10/1 on Restless Harry, a favourite of mine. Two in the field worth monitoring - Knockara Beau, fifth in the Neptune two years ago but one who really hasn't progressed as one would have hoped over the larger obstacles and Benbane Head, a free tip put up by Peter Naughton. Peter advises only a small interest in this race (80/1 with William Hill) but tells us Benbane Head is one to bear in mind for later in the season - the tipster has already backed Martin Keighley's charge for the Albert Bartlett at the Festival.
Another disappointment is that Alan King's Smad Place misses the opener on account of an unsatisfactory scope. Steve Gollings, trainer of Local Hero, is set to find out how good his charge is tomorrow - AP McCoy thinks the gelding has 'a serious engine'. Colin Tizzard fields the likely favourite in Third Intention but the yard hasn't had a winner since January 2nd. Local Hero looks the percentage call but in search of a bit of value I'm tempted to take a chance with Paul Nicholls' French import Indian Daudaie provided he's priced up 4/1 or bigger.
Sky Bet go 9/1 about another of my favourites, The Giant Bolster, who is set to carry top weight in the novices' handicap chase - I'll take an each-way interest.
The going at Doncaster is good, good to firm in places. I fancied Rose Of The Moon in the 2.45 but those damned bookie chappies have priced up Milton Harris' grey the 11/4 favourite. If Doncaster is called off, the gelding will be re-routed to the Neptune at Cheltenham - Coral offer 14/1 for that race which makes far more appeal from a betting perspective.
In the feature, the Sky Bet Chase, my two against the field are two that have featured in this blog in recent weeks. I considered I'moncloudnine for the Welsh National three weeks ago but was put off by the trainer's comments that his charge operates better on better ground. In the circumstances I'moncloudnine ran better than expected finishing third and will have underfoot conditions to suit here. King Fontaine was the suggestion for last week's abandoned Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock; the Trevor Hemmings owned gelding looks to hold every chance in this competitive event and handler Malcolm Jefferson boasts a 30% strike-rate in the past fortnight. I'll bet King Fontaine each-way at 12/1 with the sponsors who pay five places provided 18 make it to the start.
To finish, allow me to suggest a fantasy 'grey' treble for the dreamers amongst you...
Neptune Collonges (2.30 Cheltenham)
Rose Of The Moon (2.45 Doncaster / 3.05 Cheltenham)
Grand Crus (3.35 Cheltenham)
Sixteen declared for the Cleeve at 3.35 in which Tidal Bay beat Time For Rupert five lengths last year. Tom Scudamore has been particularly bullish about Grand Crus, pointing out he thinks this one can give Big Buck's a run for his money in the World Hurdle come March. If that's to come about, the grey will need to take this and he may just prefer a bit more juice in the ground. Plenty have tipped up Alan King's Bensalem but I'll have an each-way wager at 10/1 on Restless Harry, a favourite of mine. Two in the field worth monitoring - Knockara Beau, fifth in the Neptune two years ago but one who really hasn't progressed as one would have hoped over the larger obstacles and Benbane Head, a free tip put up by Peter Naughton. Peter advises only a small interest in this race (80/1 with William Hill) but tells us Benbane Head is one to bear in mind for later in the season - the tipster has already backed Martin Keighley's charge for the Albert Bartlett at the Festival.
Another disappointment is that Alan King's Smad Place misses the opener on account of an unsatisfactory scope. Steve Gollings, trainer of Local Hero, is set to find out how good his charge is tomorrow - AP McCoy thinks the gelding has 'a serious engine'. Colin Tizzard fields the likely favourite in Third Intention but the yard hasn't had a winner since January 2nd. Local Hero looks the percentage call but in search of a bit of value I'm tempted to take a chance with Paul Nicholls' French import Indian Daudaie provided he's priced up 4/1 or bigger.
Sky Bet go 9/1 about another of my favourites, The Giant Bolster, who is set to carry top weight in the novices' handicap chase - I'll take an each-way interest.
The going at Doncaster is good, good to firm in places. I fancied Rose Of The Moon in the 2.45 but those damned bookie chappies have priced up Milton Harris' grey the 11/4 favourite. If Doncaster is called off, the gelding will be re-routed to the Neptune at Cheltenham - Coral offer 14/1 for that race which makes far more appeal from a betting perspective.
In the feature, the Sky Bet Chase, my two against the field are two that have featured in this blog in recent weeks. I considered I'moncloudnine for the Welsh National three weeks ago but was put off by the trainer's comments that his charge operates better on better ground. In the circumstances I'moncloudnine ran better than expected finishing third and will have underfoot conditions to suit here. King Fontaine was the suggestion for last week's abandoned Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock; the Trevor Hemmings owned gelding looks to hold every chance in this competitive event and handler Malcolm Jefferson boasts a 30% strike-rate in the past fortnight. I'll bet King Fontaine each-way at 12/1 with the sponsors who pay five places provided 18 make it to the start.
To finish, allow me to suggest a fantasy 'grey' treble for the dreamers amongst you...
Neptune Collonges (2.30 Cheltenham)
Rose Of The Moon (2.45 Doncaster / 3.05 Cheltenham)
Grand Crus (3.35 Cheltenham)
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Weekend snippets
Festival clues aplenty at Leopardstown today where Willie Mullins won the Irish Champion Hurdle with Hurricane Fly as well as the opening maiden hurdle with Day Of A Lifetime. This evening Paddy Power offer 5/1 about Hurricane Fly for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March while Day Of A Lifetime will be entered in both the Supreme Novices' and the Neptune - Coral go 20/1 about the gelding for the opening race of the Festival.
Mullins' grey Flat Out looked set to be involved in the finish of the Arkle Novice Chase but came to grief two out when in the lead; Realt Dubh and Noble Prince fought out a ding-dong battle to the line with the former prevailing by a short-head. Best prices about these for the Cheltenham showpiece in seven weeks' time - Realt Dubh 14/1 (William Hill), Noble Prince 20/1 (Stan James), Flat Out 16/1 (Coral).
At Ascot yesterday Master Minded didn't jump with his usual zest when taking the Victor Chandler by a short-head from the fast-finishing Somersby; as a result Paul Nicholls' charge is out to 5/2 for the Queen Mother Chase while Somersby is generally a 10/1 chance. In the post-race interview McCoy implied he hadn't given his mount the best of rides by sending him to the front too soon on the testing ground. The hard luck story was Kalahari King who was all but carried out by the riderless Petit Robin but then stayed on well to take fourth. Connections had been bullish before the race and now go straight to Cheltenham for the Ryanair - totesport's 16/1 looks tempting given the likely better ground will suit Ferdy Murphy's charge.
One that sluiced up at this meeting was Grandouet who is now as low as 6/1 with some firms for the Triumph. Although the gelding won without a bother, the second, Brendan Powell's game filly Two Kisses, could be considered a useful enough yardstick but nothing more. Connections aim to go to Kempton for the Adonis before Cheltenham which should prove informative. The Triumph is a rough enough race at the best of times - 6/1 Grandouet makes no appeal whatsoever.
Pat Rodford's mare Sparky May caused something of an upset by beating even money favourite Carole's Legacy four lengths in the mares' hurdle. Sparky May is now quoted 8/1 for the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle while Carole's Legacy is out to 16/1. Willie Mullins' Quevega has won the past two runnings of the race and is just 5/4 to complete the hat-trick.
More clues to ponder over next weekend when Cheltenham hosts the Festival Trials Day...
In the meantime, three quick points to finish with...
1. Keep an eye out for the revamped Morning Line next Saturday;
2. Check out the triple dead-heat at Romford dogs last Wednesday;
3. Spare a thought for Mischief the horse who recently got stuck in a neighbour's swimming pool.
Mullins' grey Flat Out looked set to be involved in the finish of the Arkle Novice Chase but came to grief two out when in the lead; Realt Dubh and Noble Prince fought out a ding-dong battle to the line with the former prevailing by a short-head. Best prices about these for the Cheltenham showpiece in seven weeks' time - Realt Dubh 14/1 (William Hill), Noble Prince 20/1 (Stan James), Flat Out 16/1 (Coral).
At Ascot yesterday Master Minded didn't jump with his usual zest when taking the Victor Chandler by a short-head from the fast-finishing Somersby; as a result Paul Nicholls' charge is out to 5/2 for the Queen Mother Chase while Somersby is generally a 10/1 chance. In the post-race interview McCoy implied he hadn't given his mount the best of rides by sending him to the front too soon on the testing ground. The hard luck story was Kalahari King who was all but carried out by the riderless Petit Robin but then stayed on well to take fourth. Connections had been bullish before the race and now go straight to Cheltenham for the Ryanair - totesport's 16/1 looks tempting given the likely better ground will suit Ferdy Murphy's charge.
One that sluiced up at this meeting was Grandouet who is now as low as 6/1 with some firms for the Triumph. Although the gelding won without a bother, the second, Brendan Powell's game filly Two Kisses, could be considered a useful enough yardstick but nothing more. Connections aim to go to Kempton for the Adonis before Cheltenham which should prove informative. The Triumph is a rough enough race at the best of times - 6/1 Grandouet makes no appeal whatsoever.
Pat Rodford's mare Sparky May caused something of an upset by beating even money favourite Carole's Legacy four lengths in the mares' hurdle. Sparky May is now quoted 8/1 for the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle while Carole's Legacy is out to 16/1. Willie Mullins' Quevega has won the past two runnings of the race and is just 5/4 to complete the hat-trick.
More clues to ponder over next weekend when Cheltenham hosts the Festival Trials Day...
In the meantime, three quick points to finish with...
1. Keep an eye out for the revamped Morning Line next Saturday;
2. Check out the triple dead-heat at Romford dogs last Wednesday;
3. Spare a thought for Mischief the horse who recently got stuck in a neighbour's swimming pool.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Ascot and Haydock
Both Haydock and Wincanton hold early morning inspections tomorrow but there's nothing planned at Ascot where the feature is the Victor Chandler Chase at 2.25. Last week Paul Nicholls' odds-on chance Kauto Star was turned over in the big race of the day - he won't want a repeat with Master Minded who is priced 4/6 favourite with most layers. On official ratings Master Minded has fifteen pounds and upwards in hand over these rivals so there will be plenty of us trying to pick one at a price that can run into a place. Earlier in the week Ferdy Murphy was upbeat about Kalahari King's chances but I've always felt this horse is better on decent ground; the Ryanair at Cheltenham is his target which would suggest connections think he may prefer further now he's getting older. I'll take an each-way chance with Nick Williams' Gauvain (20/1 Stan James and bet365). This one fairly bolted up at Cheltenham on his first run for the yard but then failed to build on that effort when a well-beaten fifth behind Master Minded in the Tingle Creek. The stable wasn't in the best of form at that time but things look better now with three winners, nine placed in the past fortnight - I'm hoping Gauvain can bounce back.
Last Friday I pointed out that Paul Nicholls' win strike rate in the previous two weeks was 11.11% compared to Nicky Henderson's 36.84%. A week later and the Nicholls figure has improved to 19.35% but Henderson's is an incredible 42.86% (18 wins from 42 runs) - his runners are likely to prove popular tomorrow at a track where he has traditionally done well. Carole's Legacy will be amongst the best supported and on form and official ratings she's the one to beat in the 1.50 but I'll chance L'accordioniste if the mare is priced around the 11/4 mark. Sparky May isn't lightly dimissed.
No selection in the 2.55 but there are some interesting contenders nonetheless including Soldatino (last year's Triumph winner), Notus De La Tour (second in the Fred Winter) and Walkon (second to Zaynar in the 2009 Triumph), although Walkon only goes here if Haydock is called off. Writing in the Weekender Alan King has a mention for new arrival Bygones In Brid now owned by Tottenham manager Harry Redknapp. I thought I saw the horse declared here but the similarly-named Bygones Of Brid is trained in Newcastle by Karen McLintock and is owned by Mr James Callow. Bygones In Brid is expected to run in a bumper before the end of the month.
Some small fields at Haydock where Peddlers Cross bids to keep his unbeaten record in the Champion Hurdle Trial - of course, he'll be no price whatsoever. Thirteen go in the Peter Marsh where Nina Carberry's mount Becauseicouldntsee and Maktu, fifth in the Welsh National, caught my eye but also everyone else's unfortunately. Palypso De Creek was second to Our Vic in this last year but has been well out of from this term. In an open event Trevor Hemmings' course and distance winner King Fontaine (13/2 Coral) is the tentative suggestion.
The Liverpool Echo Novices' Chase is intriguing. Course and distance winner Wymott receives weight from all his rivals and is marked up favourite but on their day any of the five could win. Robinson Collonges looked highly tried when ninth behind seasoned handicappers at Cheltenham the last time - on the book he appears to have the beating of Philip Hobbs' Wishfull Thinking, one held in high regard by his handler. Cape Tribulation is talented but something of an enigma while the marvellously-named The Giant Bolster fell the last time when in the mix in a race won by Time For Rupert. For those prepared to oppose, Robinson Collonges would appear the percentage call (9/4 generally) but Stan James' 16/1 about The Giant Bolster is too big and can be taken each-way a quarter the odds.
Last Friday I pointed out that Paul Nicholls' win strike rate in the previous two weeks was 11.11% compared to Nicky Henderson's 36.84%. A week later and the Nicholls figure has improved to 19.35% but Henderson's is an incredible 42.86% (18 wins from 42 runs) - his runners are likely to prove popular tomorrow at a track where he has traditionally done well. Carole's Legacy will be amongst the best supported and on form and official ratings she's the one to beat in the 1.50 but I'll chance L'accordioniste if the mare is priced around the 11/4 mark. Sparky May isn't lightly dimissed.
No selection in the 2.55 but there are some interesting contenders nonetheless including Soldatino (last year's Triumph winner), Notus De La Tour (second in the Fred Winter) and Walkon (second to Zaynar in the 2009 Triumph), although Walkon only goes here if Haydock is called off. Writing in the Weekender Alan King has a mention for new arrival Bygones In Brid now owned by Tottenham manager Harry Redknapp. I thought I saw the horse declared here but the similarly-named Bygones Of Brid is trained in Newcastle by Karen McLintock and is owned by Mr James Callow. Bygones In Brid is expected to run in a bumper before the end of the month.
Some small fields at Haydock where Peddlers Cross bids to keep his unbeaten record in the Champion Hurdle Trial - of course, he'll be no price whatsoever. Thirteen go in the Peter Marsh where Nina Carberry's mount Becauseicouldntsee and Maktu, fifth in the Welsh National, caught my eye but also everyone else's unfortunately. Palypso De Creek was second to Our Vic in this last year but has been well out of from this term. In an open event Trevor Hemmings' course and distance winner King Fontaine (13/2 Coral) is the tentative suggestion.
The Liverpool Echo Novices' Chase is intriguing. Course and distance winner Wymott receives weight from all his rivals and is marked up favourite but on their day any of the five could win. Robinson Collonges looked highly tried when ninth behind seasoned handicappers at Cheltenham the last time - on the book he appears to have the beating of Philip Hobbs' Wishfull Thinking, one held in high regard by his handler. Cape Tribulation is talented but something of an enigma while the marvellously-named The Giant Bolster fell the last time when in the mix in a race won by Time For Rupert. For those prepared to oppose, Robinson Collonges would appear the percentage call (9/4 generally) but Stan James' 16/1 about The Giant Bolster is too big and can be taken each-way a quarter the odds.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
The day after the King George...
Kauto's brave attempt to win the King George for a fifth consecutive time failed yesterday but talk of his demise and early retirement are perhaps premature after it came to light that the eleven-year-old burst a blood vessel in yesterday's race. Fighting talk from owner Clive Smith indicates he doesn't think age has caught up with Kauto - connections are to prepare for another tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. Layers take differing views this evening - Betfred offer 7/1, Stan James and William Hill 12/1.
Nicky Henderson had a fabulous day training five winners, including the winner of the King George, Long Run. Well done to amateur jockey Mr Sam Waley-Cohen who gave his mount a fine ride. Off the top of my head, the last amateur I can recall winning a high profile race is Mr Marcus Armytage who rode Mr Frisk to victory in the 1990 Grand National in a record time. Marcus Armytage now earns a living as a racing reporter for The Daily Telegraph.
If jumping is the name of the game, two horses whose jumping really caught the eye were Long Run and Binocular. Connections have clearly been hard at work with Long Run and it paid dividends yesterday. In the post-race interview Sam Waley-Cohen indicated this horse had problems shortening up at fences and Yogi Bresner had been called in to help. In the Christmas Hurdle Binocular was frighteningly quick over the obstacles - JP McManus' gelding is now as low as 5/2 to retain the Champion Hurdle in March.
Nicholls' other runner in the King George, The Nightingale, was disappointing - Sam Thomas pulled up the gelding three from home; later the horse was found to be suffering from a fibrillating heart, a condition from which stablemate Denman suffered in 2008.
Finally - bookmaker reaction to Henderson's five-timer? Half the odds on the handler winning the trainers' title!
Nicky Henderson had a fabulous day training five winners, including the winner of the King George, Long Run. Well done to amateur jockey Mr Sam Waley-Cohen who gave his mount a fine ride. Off the top of my head, the last amateur I can recall winning a high profile race is Mr Marcus Armytage who rode Mr Frisk to victory in the 1990 Grand National in a record time. Marcus Armytage now earns a living as a racing reporter for The Daily Telegraph.
If jumping is the name of the game, two horses whose jumping really caught the eye were Long Run and Binocular. Connections have clearly been hard at work with Long Run and it paid dividends yesterday. In the post-race interview Sam Waley-Cohen indicated this horse had problems shortening up at fences and Yogi Bresner had been called in to help. In the Christmas Hurdle Binocular was frighteningly quick over the obstacles - JP McManus' gelding is now as low as 5/2 to retain the Champion Hurdle in March.
Nicholls' other runner in the King George, The Nightingale, was disappointing - Sam Thomas pulled up the gelding three from home; later the horse was found to be suffering from a fibrillating heart, a condition from which stablemate Denman suffered in 2008.
Finally - bookmaker reaction to Henderson's five-timer? Half the odds on the handler winning the trainers' title!
Friday, January 14, 2011
Kempton and Warwick
There are nine races to lose your money on at Kempton tomorrow, the highlight being Kauto Star's attempt to become the first horse to win the King George VI Chase five times. Layers think this one is a foregone conclusion; the ease in the ground is unlikely to suit a number of Kauto's opponents including Planet Of Sound, RiversideTheatre (in which actor James Nesbitt owns a share), Albertas Run and Nacarat. Early in the week the value disappeared about The Nightingale (now 9/1 in places) - the gelding tries three miles for the first time here. Long Run is very talented and would be of some interest but for me his jumping is still a problem; when he won the Feltham over course and distance just over twelve months ago he hit a few on the way round and still has a tendency to throw in the odd poor leap. A stat which could be something or nothing - in the last fortnight Paul Nicholls has had 4 winners from 36 runners (11.11%) while Nicky Henderson has had 14 winners from 38 (36.84%). Over the years Nicholls has tended to inoculate his charges against equine flu at this time of year - traditionally this is a quiet time for the stable. The King George looks a race to savour rather than bet on - I hope to see Kauto Star collect the spoils and enter the history books in the process.
Only six go in the Christmas Hurdle but it looks intruguing. I always think Kempton is Starluck's course after his easy win in the juvenile hurdle two years ago and he could be considered slightly unfortunate to go down by a short-head to Go Native in this last year; the grey may just appreciate slightly better ground. On a line through Peddlers Cross (beat Starluck and Binocular the last time at Newbury) Donald McCain should have a decent enough idea of Overturn's chances - this one can make the running but I've never considered Kempton a course for front runners. At the prices available I'm going to bet the Champion Hurdle runner-up Khyber Kim (3/1) as a play against likely favourite and current Champion Hurdler Binocular.
The Lanzarote looks difficult - Palomar was of interest and Brian Ellison is in very good form (6 wins from 23 runs in past fortnight) but the gelding doesn't looks certain to stay the trip - priced at around 9/1 I've decided not to play. Having just written that though, Coral's 18/1 about Songe looks far more tempting...
The big race at Warwick, where an 8.00am inspection is planned, is the Classic Chase at 3.20 in which sixteen are set to face the starter. Conditions will suit market leader Le Beau Bai from Richard Lee's yard - the trainer bagged a nice double at Hereford on Thursday - while Aidan Coleman has talked up Officier De Reserve (10/1 totesport) a couple of times this season. Provided the meeting gets the green light I'll take a small each-way interest in the other one from Lee's yard, Incentivise - VC offer 12/1 this evening.
It has to be said Warwick's chances don't look particularly good with the track reported unraceable earlier today. However if they do go, another I'll consider at a big price is Tom Wade in the opener. The heavy going is a complete unknown but this one ran well for a long way at 100/1 behind Sam Winner the last time.
Only six go in the Christmas Hurdle but it looks intruguing. I always think Kempton is Starluck's course after his easy win in the juvenile hurdle two years ago and he could be considered slightly unfortunate to go down by a short-head to Go Native in this last year; the grey may just appreciate slightly better ground. On a line through Peddlers Cross (beat Starluck and Binocular the last time at Newbury) Donald McCain should have a decent enough idea of Overturn's chances - this one can make the running but I've never considered Kempton a course for front runners. At the prices available I'm going to bet the Champion Hurdle runner-up Khyber Kim (3/1) as a play against likely favourite and current Champion Hurdler Binocular.
The Lanzarote looks difficult - Palomar was of interest and Brian Ellison is in very good form (6 wins from 23 runs in past fortnight) but the gelding doesn't looks certain to stay the trip - priced at around 9/1 I've decided not to play. Having just written that though, Coral's 18/1 about Songe looks far more tempting...
The big race at Warwick, where an 8.00am inspection is planned, is the Classic Chase at 3.20 in which sixteen are set to face the starter. Conditions will suit market leader Le Beau Bai from Richard Lee's yard - the trainer bagged a nice double at Hereford on Thursday - while Aidan Coleman has talked up Officier De Reserve (10/1 totesport) a couple of times this season. Provided the meeting gets the green light I'll take a small each-way interest in the other one from Lee's yard, Incentivise - VC offer 12/1 this evening.
It has to be said Warwick's chances don't look particularly good with the track reported unraceable earlier today. However if they do go, another I'll consider at a big price is Tom Wade in the opener. The heavy going is a complete unknown but this one ran well for a long way at 100/1 behind Sam Winner the last time.
Sunday, January 09, 2011
Telling it as it is...
John McCririck just didn't appear in one of his better moods on Saturday's Morning Line.
At one juncture the pundit sought to make the point that Tony McCoy 'told it as it was' in his column in The Daily Telegraph in contrast to Richard Johnson, formerly of The Times but now writing for The Daily Mirror. Whereas McCoy voiced his fears over the weight Synchronised had been allocated in the Welsh National, by contrast Johnson in his column said all his booked rides looked to have a nice chance etc. - in effect McCririck was making the point that Johnson's comments didn't really add value. Fair enough, but when taken to task by John Francome, McCririck blustered on, insisting that it was champ McCoy who 'told it as it was'.
Just under six hours later, McCoy rode Synchronised (carrying eleven stones six pounds) to victory in the Chepstow showpiece.
Trying to tell it as it is - not an easy thing to pull off in the racing game. Horses, as we know all too well, they make fools of you. As for McCririck - will he survive The Morning Line re-brand scheduled to hit our screens at the end of the month?
At one juncture the pundit sought to make the point that Tony McCoy 'told it as it was' in his column in The Daily Telegraph in contrast to Richard Johnson, formerly of The Times but now writing for The Daily Mirror. Whereas McCoy voiced his fears over the weight Synchronised had been allocated in the Welsh National, by contrast Johnson in his column said all his booked rides looked to have a nice chance etc. - in effect McCririck was making the point that Johnson's comments didn't really add value. Fair enough, but when taken to task by John Francome, McCririck blustered on, insisting that it was champ McCoy who 'told it as it was'.
Just under six hours later, McCoy rode Synchronised (carrying eleven stones six pounds) to victory in the Chepstow showpiece.
Trying to tell it as it is - not an easy thing to pull off in the racing game. Horses, as we know all too well, they make fools of you. As for McCririck - will he survive The Morning Line re-brand scheduled to hit our screens at the end of the month?
Friday, January 07, 2011
Chepstow's Welsh National card
With Sandown's Tolworth fixture subject to a 7.30 inspection tomorrow morning, I've concentrated on Chepstow's Welsh National card.
Twenty have been declared for the feature which will be run over a distance just shy of three and three quarter miles on ground that is likely to be testing in the extreme. Over the past ten years only one horse has carried more than eleven stones to victory (Halcon Genelardais in 2006) and six of those ten winners have carried less than ten and a half stone. One favourite has obliged during the same time period, Silver Birch in 2004. Many think Synchronised is a good thing but I've been on the lookout for something carrying a racing weight at an each-way price. I'moncloudnine from Neil Mulholland's in-form yard fits the bill; however in a recent stable tour article the handler told us his charge is entered here as the owners are from the area but the bay gelding would prefer decent jumping ground - the plan appears to be the National next April. I'm undecided on which of Victor Dartnall's pair to go for - both would have a decent chance on their best form but both are prone to the odd jumping error here and there. Of the two Exmoor Ranger finished third behind Midnight Chase the last time but carries his share of weight here while Giles Cross ran well for a fair way before being pulled on his seasonal debut. In the week I saw a comment from the handler that indicated very soft / heavy ground was more likely to suit Giles Cross, so I'm going to take a small each-way interest in course winner Giles Cross.
The top two in the ante-post market for the Triumph Hurdle take each other on in the 1.10. On ratings Sam Winner is the one to beat and is priced accordingly. Alan King has indicated in the Weekender that Smad Place missed an engagement at Newbury last week after connections weren't 100% satisfied with the way their charge had scoped; nonetheless a big run is expected tomorow. In Thursday's Times Milton Harris admitted to 'aiming high' with Royal And Ancient but Marsh Warbler is a favourite of Brian Ellison - the Malton handler boasts a 25% strike-rate over the past fortnight. Houblon Des Obeaux will like the ground but appears to have a stiff introduction to British racing here - writing on his blog jockey Aidan Coleman advises a watching brief on this occasion. As a play against the odds-on favourite, I'll chance Marsh Warbler each-way provided eight make it to the start - Victor Chandler and Paddy Power both offer 8/1 this evening but Coral go 5/1.
Only seven in the opener but it looks trappy so I'm not going to get involved. Big Knickers goes in the maiden hurdle (2.50) and is a favourite of mine as, if nothing else, the mare provides me with an opportunity to rattle out the old schoolby gags... Having said that, Neil Mulholland's charge isn't without ability. Her last run can be safely ignored as the trainer has told us she was 'over-trained' for her hurdling debut at Worcester. She has been given time to recover from that and will appreciate the underfoot conditions here - Big Knickers should warrant an each-way interest...
In the concluding bumper Saint Luke has to concede seven pounds to all his rivals which won't be an easy task in the ground. Tenby Jewel was well beaten at Fontwell earlier today (and may not run here) so for those who want to oppose, Dai Burchell's point to point winner Beat All Out is the suggestion.
Twenty have been declared for the feature which will be run over a distance just shy of three and three quarter miles on ground that is likely to be testing in the extreme. Over the past ten years only one horse has carried more than eleven stones to victory (Halcon Genelardais in 2006) and six of those ten winners have carried less than ten and a half stone. One favourite has obliged during the same time period, Silver Birch in 2004. Many think Synchronised is a good thing but I've been on the lookout for something carrying a racing weight at an each-way price. I'moncloudnine from Neil Mulholland's in-form yard fits the bill; however in a recent stable tour article the handler told us his charge is entered here as the owners are from the area but the bay gelding would prefer decent jumping ground - the plan appears to be the National next April. I'm undecided on which of Victor Dartnall's pair to go for - both would have a decent chance on their best form but both are prone to the odd jumping error here and there. Of the two Exmoor Ranger finished third behind Midnight Chase the last time but carries his share of weight here while Giles Cross ran well for a fair way before being pulled on his seasonal debut. In the week I saw a comment from the handler that indicated very soft / heavy ground was more likely to suit Giles Cross, so I'm going to take a small each-way interest in course winner Giles Cross.
The top two in the ante-post market for the Triumph Hurdle take each other on in the 1.10. On ratings Sam Winner is the one to beat and is priced accordingly. Alan King has indicated in the Weekender that Smad Place missed an engagement at Newbury last week after connections weren't 100% satisfied with the way their charge had scoped; nonetheless a big run is expected tomorow. In Thursday's Times Milton Harris admitted to 'aiming high' with Royal And Ancient but Marsh Warbler is a favourite of Brian Ellison - the Malton handler boasts a 25% strike-rate over the past fortnight. Houblon Des Obeaux will like the ground but appears to have a stiff introduction to British racing here - writing on his blog jockey Aidan Coleman advises a watching brief on this occasion. As a play against the odds-on favourite, I'll chance Marsh Warbler each-way provided eight make it to the start - Victor Chandler and Paddy Power both offer 8/1 this evening but Coral go 5/1.
Only seven in the opener but it looks trappy so I'm not going to get involved. Big Knickers goes in the maiden hurdle (2.50) and is a favourite of mine as, if nothing else, the mare provides me with an opportunity to rattle out the old schoolby gags... Having said that, Neil Mulholland's charge isn't without ability. Her last run can be safely ignored as the trainer has told us she was 'over-trained' for her hurdling debut at Worcester. She has been given time to recover from that and will appreciate the underfoot conditions here - Big Knickers should warrant an each-way interest...
In the concluding bumper Saint Luke has to concede seven pounds to all his rivals which won't be an easy task in the ground. Tenby Jewel was well beaten at Fontwell earlier today (and may not run here) so for those who want to oppose, Dai Burchell's point to point winner Beat All Out is the suggestion.
Sunday, January 02, 2011
Noted this new year
Oscar Whisky's odds for the Champion Hurdle shortened markedly after yesterday's emphatic victory in the Cheltenham & Three Counties Race Club Hurdle; William Hill go 12s, Blue Square 16s about Nicky Henderson's six-year-old.
The father and son combination of Colin and Joe Tizzard experienced the highs and lows of the jumping game in the space of thirty minutes at Cheltenham yesterday. Stable stalwart Joe Lively had to be put down after breaking a leg when hampered at the twelfth in the Raceodds Handicap Chase. Half an hour later Hell's Bay brought some consolation to the yard by holding Medermit to take the Dipper Novices' Chase.
Flat trainer Roger Charlton is looking to have his first runner at the Cheltenham Festival in March after Keys held Cinders And Ashes a short-head in the concluding bumper. A stewards' inquiry followed but the placings remained unaltered - both horses are 16/1 with Victor Chandler for the Weatherby's Champion Bumper in March.
Over at Exeter three pound claimer Danny Cook had an interesting time aboard David Pipe's even money favourite Spanish Cruise in the 3.25. The rider was almost unseated at the start, losing his irons until after the first in the process. Spanish Cruise then went to the head of affairs but looked in trouble two out when pecking on landing and forfeiting the lead to 7/1 chance Sea Saffron. Cook perservered with a strong challenge and managed to get his mount back in front in the shadow of the post - the winning distance was recorded as half a length.
For reasons I won't go into, just before Christmas I needed a blagger's guide to classical music - Stephen Fry's Incomplete and Utter History of Classical Music was a recommendation that came my way. This work I found rather hard work - I ended up spending too much time trying to separate the wheat from the chaff (bit rich that, coming from me, I know, but what the hell!) Fortunately, Santa brought me Ruby: The Autobiography - altogether a much easier and much better read all round.
To conclude, two other books to look out for in the January sales... The Horse: A Celebration of Horses in Art by Rachel Barnes and Simon Barnes is a big book (43.4 cms x 36.6 cms) that will require a big coffee table while Dominic Prince's Jumbo to Jockey: Fasting to the Finishing Post could prove a source of inspiration to those who, like me, need help in the dieting department following the over-indulgences of the Christmas period.
The father and son combination of Colin and Joe Tizzard experienced the highs and lows of the jumping game in the space of thirty minutes at Cheltenham yesterday. Stable stalwart Joe Lively had to be put down after breaking a leg when hampered at the twelfth in the Raceodds Handicap Chase. Half an hour later Hell's Bay brought some consolation to the yard by holding Medermit to take the Dipper Novices' Chase.
Flat trainer Roger Charlton is looking to have his first runner at the Cheltenham Festival in March after Keys held Cinders And Ashes a short-head in the concluding bumper. A stewards' inquiry followed but the placings remained unaltered - both horses are 16/1 with Victor Chandler for the Weatherby's Champion Bumper in March.
Over at Exeter three pound claimer Danny Cook had an interesting time aboard David Pipe's even money favourite Spanish Cruise in the 3.25. The rider was almost unseated at the start, losing his irons until after the first in the process. Spanish Cruise then went to the head of affairs but looked in trouble two out when pecking on landing and forfeiting the lead to 7/1 chance Sea Saffron. Cook perservered with a strong challenge and managed to get his mount back in front in the shadow of the post - the winning distance was recorded as half a length.
For reasons I won't go into, just before Christmas I needed a blagger's guide to classical music - Stephen Fry's Incomplete and Utter History of Classical Music was a recommendation that came my way. This work I found rather hard work - I ended up spending too much time trying to separate the wheat from the chaff (bit rich that, coming from me, I know, but what the hell!) Fortunately, Santa brought me Ruby: The Autobiography - altogether a much easier and much better read all round.
To conclude, two other books to look out for in the January sales... The Horse: A Celebration of Horses in Art by Rachel Barnes and Simon Barnes is a big book (43.4 cms x 36.6 cms) that will require a big coffee table while Dominic Prince's Jumbo to Jockey: Fasting to the Finishing Post could prove a source of inspiration to those who, like me, need help in the dieting department following the over-indulgences of the Christmas period.
Friday, December 31, 2010
New Year's Day 2011
There's a tricky-looking card on offer at Cheltenham tomorrow for the first day of the new year. Seventeen go to post in the feature, the victorchandler.com Chase, at 2.35; in my book a number of the runners have issues in the jumping department - I'm going to leave well alone but must say it's fantastic to see Mister McGoldrick in the line-up at the age of fourteen.
The form of the Relkeel run over the course and distance three weeks ago is a decent starting point for the Cheltenham & Three Counties Race Club Hurdle at 12.55. Karabak beat Any Given Day and Celestial Halo the last time but has to concede four pounds to both those opponents tomorrow; plenty will think Karabak can do just that - according to today's Times connections intend to go straight to the World Hurdle with their charge if he does the business here. Having said that, others will fancy Donald McCain's Any Given Day to reverse the placings. At the weights Celestial Halo is the one to beat but I note he's never won at this distance while Nicky Henderson's Oscar Whisky, fourth in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle last March, is given every respect. This evening layers go 9/4 Karabak, 3/1 Any Given Day, 7/2 Celestial Halo and Oscar Whisky; at those prices Celestial Halo gets the vote.
In the Dipper (2.00) Hell's Bay would make some appeal each-way at a price but I'll take a chance with David Pipe's Mr Thriller - this one was in the process of giving Time For Rupert a run for his money when coming to grief two out the last time. Nicky Henderson's Master Of The Hall is feared.
I intend to have a small speculative wager on Milton Harris' grey Rose Of The Moon in first. In a stable tour article last month the handler told us this one has already schooled over fences and is described as 'an exceptional prospect'. Finally the concluding bumper looks the best race of its type we've seen this season. Roger Charlton's Keys will generate a lot of interest as will Cinders and Ashes and facile Exeter winner Cousin Khee.
Postscript: Some people simply never learn and have asked me to take a quick look at tomorrow's all-hurdle card at Exeter on their behalf. The feature Bathwick Tyres Handicap Hurdle at 2.15 looks very competitive. This evening's tissue has David Pipe's Hunterview at 16/1 - I can't see that price being available tomorrow but if it is, it would look very good each-way value. Hunterview hasn't shown his best of late but if the gelding bounces back he has a shout - he beat Advisor at Ayr in April and was beaten under six and a half lengths conceding 17 pounds to Salden Licht at Plumpton last January. Other Exeter suggestions (for the brave only):
12.40 Mr Hudson / Filbert
1.15 Bermuda Boy
1.45 Baby Car
3.25 Spanish Cruise
In the bumper (4.00) I note Sam Thomas is booked to travel from Cheltenham to ride Morgan's Bay for Tom George.
Whatever happens, let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a very happy new year...
The form of the Relkeel run over the course and distance three weeks ago is a decent starting point for the Cheltenham & Three Counties Race Club Hurdle at 12.55. Karabak beat Any Given Day and Celestial Halo the last time but has to concede four pounds to both those opponents tomorrow; plenty will think Karabak can do just that - according to today's Times connections intend to go straight to the World Hurdle with their charge if he does the business here. Having said that, others will fancy Donald McCain's Any Given Day to reverse the placings. At the weights Celestial Halo is the one to beat but I note he's never won at this distance while Nicky Henderson's Oscar Whisky, fourth in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle last March, is given every respect. This evening layers go 9/4 Karabak, 3/1 Any Given Day, 7/2 Celestial Halo and Oscar Whisky; at those prices Celestial Halo gets the vote.
In the Dipper (2.00) Hell's Bay would make some appeal each-way at a price but I'll take a chance with David Pipe's Mr Thriller - this one was in the process of giving Time For Rupert a run for his money when coming to grief two out the last time. Nicky Henderson's Master Of The Hall is feared.
I intend to have a small speculative wager on Milton Harris' grey Rose Of The Moon in first. In a stable tour article last month the handler told us this one has already schooled over fences and is described as 'an exceptional prospect'. Finally the concluding bumper looks the best race of its type we've seen this season. Roger Charlton's Keys will generate a lot of interest as will Cinders and Ashes and facile Exeter winner Cousin Khee.
Postscript: Some people simply never learn and have asked me to take a quick look at tomorrow's all-hurdle card at Exeter on their behalf. The feature Bathwick Tyres Handicap Hurdle at 2.15 looks very competitive. This evening's tissue has David Pipe's Hunterview at 16/1 - I can't see that price being available tomorrow but if it is, it would look very good each-way value. Hunterview hasn't shown his best of late but if the gelding bounces back he has a shout - he beat Advisor at Ayr in April and was beaten under six and a half lengths conceding 17 pounds to Salden Licht at Plumpton last January. Other Exeter suggestions (for the brave only):
12.40 Mr Hudson / Filbert
1.15 Bermuda Boy
1.45 Baby Car
3.25 Spanish Cruise
In the bumper (4.00) I note Sam Thomas is booked to travel from Cheltenham to ride Morgan's Bay for Tom George.
Whatever happens, let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a very happy new year...
Friday, December 24, 2010
Frozen courses
Probably the only thing I have in common with Kempton's clerk of the course Barney Clifford is the fact we both took a peek under the covers this morning and didn't particularly like what we saw. Kempton's Boxing Day card has been abandoned; Monday's revised eight-race card at the track is now subject to an inspection on Sunday (Boxing Day) at 2.00pm.
At the time of writing the current state of play is:
Boxing Day 26th December
Kempton Park - abandoned
Fontwell Park - 11.00 am inspection Christmas Day
Huntingdon - abandoned
Market Rasen - abandoned
Towcester - abandoned
Wetherby - abandoned
Wincanton -abandoned
Wolverhampton - inspection 6.30 am Boxing Day
Leopardstown - abandoned. Rescheduled Thursday 30th December
Limerick - abandoned
Down Royal - abandoned
Monday 27th December
Chepstow - abandoned. Welsh National meeting rescheduled January 8th
Kempton Park - inspection 2.00 pm Boxing Day
Southwell - no inspection currently planned
Wetherby - inspection 9.00 am Boxing Day
Leopardstown - abandoned
Tuesday 28th December
Catterick - abandoned
Ffos Las - course currently covered
Leicester - inspection 8.30 am Boxing Day
Wednesday 29th December
Kelso - abandoned
Thursday 30th December
Haydock - inspection 11.00 am Tuesday 28th December
Makes grim reading, doesn't it? Pass the port, please...
At the time of writing the current state of play is:
Boxing Day 26th December
Kempton Park - abandoned
Fontwell Park - 11.00 am inspection Christmas Day
Huntingdon - abandoned
Market Rasen - abandoned
Towcester - abandoned
Wetherby - abandoned
Wincanton -abandoned
Wolverhampton - inspection 6.30 am Boxing Day
Leopardstown - abandoned. Rescheduled Thursday 30th December
Limerick - abandoned
Down Royal - abandoned
Monday 27th December
Chepstow - abandoned. Welsh National meeting rescheduled January 8th
Kempton Park - inspection 2.00 pm Boxing Day
Southwell - no inspection currently planned
Wetherby - inspection 9.00 am Boxing Day
Leopardstown - abandoned
Tuesday 28th December
Catterick - abandoned
Ffos Las - course currently covered
Leicester - inspection 8.30 am Boxing Day
Wednesday 29th December
Kelso - abandoned
Thursday 30th December
Haydock - inspection 11.00 am Tuesday 28th December
Makes grim reading, doesn't it? Pass the port, please...
Friday, December 17, 2010
No escape for the wicked...
It's a grim-looking picture for Saturday's scheduled turf cards. Ascot and Newcastle have already abandoned their fixtures while Haydock is subject to an inspection at 8.00 tomorrow morning. The track has frost covers in place but an inch of snow will cause problems as will the overnight temperature which is set to reach minus 5.
It looks as though the suggested displacement activity will be doing some 'last minute Christmas shopping'. The sheer agony of it all... Whatever, somebody has certainly splashed out on a Christmas present this year; an undisclosed buyer recently paid a record £10 million for George Stubbs' masterpiece Brood Mares and Foals.
A bit nearer to home, I'll be thinking more along the lines of Claire's Accessories myself...
It looks as though the suggested displacement activity will be doing some 'last minute Christmas shopping'. The sheer agony of it all... Whatever, somebody has certainly splashed out on a Christmas present this year; an undisclosed buyer recently paid a record £10 million for George Stubbs' masterpiece Brood Mares and Foals.
A bit nearer to home, I'll be thinking more along the lines of Claire's Accessories myself...
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