A quick post and some quick picks for those of a carefree disposition...
I'm inclined to give Irish Saint another chance against Rolling Star in the opener; he missed Cheltenham and comes here fresher than most. Kim Bailey's Hefner could be anything but the handler will not have entered the gelding on a whim.
Silviniaco Conti is the form choice in the Betfred Bowl (2.30) but he'll be no price. Only one favourite has obliged in the past ten years so I'll chance course and distance winner Quito De La Roque each-way.
The Aintree Hurdle looks very trappy. Barry Geraghty deserts previous winner Oscar Whisky to ride Grandouet who fell in the Champion and isn't always the most fluent of hurdlers. On official ratings The New One has enough to find with several of these more experienced rivals but the impressive manner in which he quickened to take the Neptune stays in the mind - The New One gets the vote.
Wednesday, April 03, 2013
Tuesday, April 02, 2013
A Twitter Guide to the 2013 Grand National entries
Here's my Twitter guide to the remaining 49 Grand National entries.
As in previous years the guide has been compiled using Twitter's 140 character limit for each individual entry.
Likely to prove of little use when selecting your horse for this year's National...
Imperial Commander 2010 Gold Cup winner picked up an injury in the 2011 race. Excellent return to the track in the Argento - a player if taking to fences.
What A Friend Pulled up behind Ballabriggs in 2011; prefers good ground, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson.
Weird Al Talented but enigmatic. Fell four from home in last year's race - previously has broken blood vessels.
Quel Esprit Grey who won Irish Hennessy last year and was then pulled out of the Cheltenham Gold Cup; Willie Mullins trains.
Big Fella Thanks 11-year-old with excellent completion record over the fences - now trained by Tom George.
Roberto Goldback Bought as a National horse for owner Simon Munir; bids to give Nicky Henderson his first win in the race.
Seabass Excellent third last year - Katie Walsh bids to win this for her father and become the first female jockey to win the race.
Ballabriggs 2011 winner runs in the colours of Mr Trevor Hemmings; sixth last year and now aged 12.
Sunnyhillboy Desperately unlucky to be beaten a nose by Neptune Collonges last year; connections try again...
Teaforthree Second in the Welsh National at Chepstow, he disappointed last time in Haydock's National Trial. Prefer plenty of cut.
Across The Bay Seventh in the Welsh National; mixes chasing with hurdling.
Join Together Paul Nicholls' best chance but Ruby Walsh prefers to ride On His Own for Willie Mullins.
Bob Lingo Plenty of miles on the clock, never won beyond 22 furlongs; owned by J P McManus.
Colbert Station Comes to this in fine form, Ted Walsh trains; will McCoy ride?
Tofino Bay Fine second in NH Chase at Cheltenham 24 days ago, a race likely to have left its mark.
Forpadydeplasterer 2009 Arkle winner may atruggle to stay this trip.
On His Own Market leader, fell at Becher's on second circuit last year when going well in third. Ruby Walsh rides, Willie Mullins trains.
Joncol 2010 Irish Hennessy winner; others make more appeal.
Lion Na Bearnai Won 2012 Irish National at odds of 33/1; one track appearance since, pulled up behind Bobs Worth in Hennessy at Newbury.
Balthazar King Winner 2012 cross country race at Cheltenham Festival; better ground will help his chance.
Bostons Angel Form in cross country races at Cheltenham.
Cappa Bleu Stayed on for fourth in last year's renewal; place claims.
Oscar Time Second behind Ballabriggs in 2011. No comparable form since; part-owned by Robert Waley-Cohen.
Always Waining Won last three runnings of the Topham (over National fences); unlikely to stay the trip.
Quinz Pulled up before the Chair in the 2011; recent fourth in Kempton's Racing Plus Chase encouraging after long layoff - prefers good ground.
Tatenen Unseated rider at the Canal Turn last year; never won beyond 21 furlongs.
Treacle Likes sticky conditions underfoot.
Lost Glory J P McManus runner who likes to race prominently. In good form but McCoy likely to look elsewhere.
Saint Are Well beaten in the Kim Muir at the Festival last time.
Swing Bill Another well beaten in the Kim Muir.
Chicago Grey Won the NH Chase at Cheltenham in 2011. Unlucky to be brought down at the fifth last year; has the look of one trained for the race.
Quiscover Fontaine Fell at 17th fence last year.
Becauseicouldntsee Unseated rider at Canal turn last year; fifth in Kim Muir last time looks a decent preparation.
Harry The Viking Ninth in the Hennessy, tenth in the Kim Muir; trained by Paul Nicholls and part owned by Sir Alex Ferguson.
Rare Bob Brought down at fifth last year; supported in the market and quietly fancied.
The Rainbow Hunter Unexposed, interesting outsider; part owned by Racing UK presenter Oli Bell.
Mr Moonshine Second behind Cape Tribulation in Rowland Meryck reads well.
Mumbles Head 12-year-old who fell at the first in the Becher.
Pearlysteps Likely to stay but jumping has proved problematic in the past.
Auroras Encore Second in the 2012 Scottish National beaten a head; out of sorts of late.
Ninetieth Minute Most of his form on soft / heavy ground; never won beyond 22 furlongs.
Tarquinius Failed to build on decent effort when beaten 68 lengths in Leinster National at Naas last time out.
Any Currency Unseated Aidan Coleman in the Becher; fourth in the N. Yorks National to his name.
Major Malarkey Talented but quirky customer not always guaranteed to put his best foot forward.
Poker De Sivola Won the bet365 Gold Cup Chase at Sandown and seventh in the Becher. Likely to appreciate better ground.
Backstage Going well when hampered in 2010 and came home tenth when fancied in 2011.
Soll Well beaten in Hennessy and Welsh National but win at Sandown last time out.
Romaesco Decent third in the Kim Muir but fell in Monday's Irish National.
Viking Blond Twiston-Davies front-runner who wears blinkers and fell at first last year.
Cloudy Lane Stalwart now at the veteran stage; finished eighth in 2010.
Pentiffic Stable won the race with 100/1 shot Mon Mome in 2009; this one priced 150/1.
Guilible Gordon Moved to Peter Bowen's in mid-November; sixth in the Becher for new connections.
Mortimers Cross 200/1 outsider beaten a length in the Southern National at Fontwell.
As in previous years the guide has been compiled using Twitter's 140 character limit for each individual entry.
Likely to prove of little use when selecting your horse for this year's National...
Imperial Commander 2010 Gold Cup winner picked up an injury in the 2011 race. Excellent return to the track in the Argento - a player if taking to fences.
What A Friend Pulled up behind Ballabriggs in 2011; prefers good ground, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson.
Weird Al Talented but enigmatic. Fell four from home in last year's race - previously has broken blood vessels.
Quel Esprit Grey who won Irish Hennessy last year and was then pulled out of the Cheltenham Gold Cup; Willie Mullins trains.
Big Fella Thanks 11-year-old with excellent completion record over the fences - now trained by Tom George.
Roberto Goldback Bought as a National horse for owner Simon Munir; bids to give Nicky Henderson his first win in the race.
Seabass Excellent third last year - Katie Walsh bids to win this for her father and become the first female jockey to win the race.
Ballabriggs 2011 winner runs in the colours of Mr Trevor Hemmings; sixth last year and now aged 12.
Sunnyhillboy Desperately unlucky to be beaten a nose by Neptune Collonges last year; connections try again...
Teaforthree Second in the Welsh National at Chepstow, he disappointed last time in Haydock's National Trial. Prefer plenty of cut.
Across The Bay Seventh in the Welsh National; mixes chasing with hurdling.
Join Together Paul Nicholls' best chance but Ruby Walsh prefers to ride On His Own for Willie Mullins.
Bob Lingo Plenty of miles on the clock, never won beyond 22 furlongs; owned by J P McManus.
Colbert Station Comes to this in fine form, Ted Walsh trains; will McCoy ride?
Tofino Bay Fine second in NH Chase at Cheltenham 24 days ago, a race likely to have left its mark.
Forpadydeplasterer 2009 Arkle winner may atruggle to stay this trip.
On His Own Market leader, fell at Becher's on second circuit last year when going well in third. Ruby Walsh rides, Willie Mullins trains.
Joncol 2010 Irish Hennessy winner; others make more appeal.
Lion Na Bearnai Won 2012 Irish National at odds of 33/1; one track appearance since, pulled up behind Bobs Worth in Hennessy at Newbury.
Balthazar King Winner 2012 cross country race at Cheltenham Festival; better ground will help his chance.
Bostons Angel Form in cross country races at Cheltenham.
Cappa Bleu Stayed on for fourth in last year's renewal; place claims.
Oscar Time Second behind Ballabriggs in 2011. No comparable form since; part-owned by Robert Waley-Cohen.
Always Waining Won last three runnings of the Topham (over National fences); unlikely to stay the trip.
Quinz Pulled up before the Chair in the 2011; recent fourth in Kempton's Racing Plus Chase encouraging after long layoff - prefers good ground.
Tatenen Unseated rider at the Canal Turn last year; never won beyond 21 furlongs.
Treacle Likes sticky conditions underfoot.
Lost Glory J P McManus runner who likes to race prominently. In good form but McCoy likely to look elsewhere.
Saint Are Well beaten in the Kim Muir at the Festival last time.
Swing Bill Another well beaten in the Kim Muir.
Chicago Grey Won the NH Chase at Cheltenham in 2011. Unlucky to be brought down at the fifth last year; has the look of one trained for the race.
Quiscover Fontaine Fell at 17th fence last year.
Becauseicouldntsee Unseated rider at Canal turn last year; fifth in Kim Muir last time looks a decent preparation.
Harry The Viking Ninth in the Hennessy, tenth in the Kim Muir; trained by Paul Nicholls and part owned by Sir Alex Ferguson.
Rare Bob Brought down at fifth last year; supported in the market and quietly fancied.
The Rainbow Hunter Unexposed, interesting outsider; part owned by Racing UK presenter Oli Bell.
Mr Moonshine Second behind Cape Tribulation in Rowland Meryck reads well.
Mumbles Head 12-year-old who fell at the first in the Becher.
Pearlysteps Likely to stay but jumping has proved problematic in the past.
Auroras Encore Second in the 2012 Scottish National beaten a head; out of sorts of late.
Ninetieth Minute Most of his form on soft / heavy ground; never won beyond 22 furlongs.
Tarquinius Failed to build on decent effort when beaten 68 lengths in Leinster National at Naas last time out.
Any Currency Unseated Aidan Coleman in the Becher; fourth in the N. Yorks National to his name.
Major Malarkey Talented but quirky customer not always guaranteed to put his best foot forward.
Poker De Sivola Won the bet365 Gold Cup Chase at Sandown and seventh in the Becher. Likely to appreciate better ground.
Backstage Going well when hampered in 2010 and came home tenth when fancied in 2011.
Soll Well beaten in Hennessy and Welsh National but win at Sandown last time out.
Romaesco Decent third in the Kim Muir but fell in Monday's Irish National.
Viking Blond Twiston-Davies front-runner who wears blinkers and fell at first last year.
Cloudy Lane Stalwart now at the veteran stage; finished eighth in 2010.
Pentiffic Stable won the race with 100/1 shot Mon Mome in 2009; this one priced 150/1.
Guilible Gordon Moved to Peter Bowen's in mid-November; sixth in the Becher for new connections.
Mortimers Cross 200/1 outsider beaten a length in the Southern National at Fontwell.
Friday, March 29, 2013
At Easter - to play or not to play?
Just a brief post this evening as I don't intend to play tomorrow.
Winners are difficult to find at the best of times. If you're considering a wager at Dubai or even Doncaster, you may wish to note Alistair Whitehouse-Jones' comments in the Weekender:
'By all means enjoy this weekend's Dubai World Cup, but you'd be crackers to have a bet in it. Since moving from Nad Al Sheba to Meydan in 2010 it has become harder to predict than the Lincoln, with not one single-priced figure horse finishing in the first three.'
Quickly looking at the Haydock card, the opening Tim Moloney Chase is interesting but it's difficult to gauge the extent to which recent snowfalls have affected trainers' schedules, particularly those based in the North. In a short piece on the Sporting Life website, Sue Smith gave a glimpse into some of the problems encountered.
The biggest temptation to the resolve is likely to come in the shape of Newton Abbot's SIS Handicap Chase at 3.55. Worth over £15,000 to the winner, there are just five declared for a trappy-looking handicap.
Ulck Du Lin, trained by Paul Nicholls, is priced up favourite; the youngest horse in the race has the assistance of Ruby Walsh in the plate but is tasked with carrying top weight on heavy ground. Just fifteen days ago Nicholls' charge was pulled up in the Grand Annual at the Festival and looks vulnerable.
The outsider in the field Falcon Island has form this season behind both Ulck Du Lin and Eastlake. He was beaten thirteen and a half lengths by the former at Ascot when conceding seven pounds and then went down eigtheen lengths to the latter at Sandown giving away ten pounds. On the revised terms he is entitled to be competitive and Brendan Powell Jr can claim a further three. Priced at 12/1 with Paddy Power this evening, that resolve not to play is being tested somewhat...
Winners are difficult to find at the best of times. If you're considering a wager at Dubai or even Doncaster, you may wish to note Alistair Whitehouse-Jones' comments in the Weekender:
'By all means enjoy this weekend's Dubai World Cup, but you'd be crackers to have a bet in it. Since moving from Nad Al Sheba to Meydan in 2010 it has become harder to predict than the Lincoln, with not one single-priced figure horse finishing in the first three.'
Quickly looking at the Haydock card, the opening Tim Moloney Chase is interesting but it's difficult to gauge the extent to which recent snowfalls have affected trainers' schedules, particularly those based in the North. In a short piece on the Sporting Life website, Sue Smith gave a glimpse into some of the problems encountered.
The biggest temptation to the resolve is likely to come in the shape of Newton Abbot's SIS Handicap Chase at 3.55. Worth over £15,000 to the winner, there are just five declared for a trappy-looking handicap.
Ulck Du Lin, trained by Paul Nicholls, is priced up favourite; the youngest horse in the race has the assistance of Ruby Walsh in the plate but is tasked with carrying top weight on heavy ground. Just fifteen days ago Nicholls' charge was pulled up in the Grand Annual at the Festival and looks vulnerable.
The outsider in the field Falcon Island has form this season behind both Ulck Du Lin and Eastlake. He was beaten thirteen and a half lengths by the former at Ascot when conceding seven pounds and then went down eigtheen lengths to the latter at Sandown giving away ten pounds. On the revised terms he is entitled to be competitive and Brendan Powell Jr can claim a further three. Priced at 12/1 with Paddy Power this evening, that resolve not to play is being tested somewhat...
Friday, March 22, 2013
Tight at the top of the Blue Square Premiership...
Rank may be suffering from a bout of the Blue Square blues as it tries to ditch the loss-making bookmaker but, just as it was last year, it's extremely tight at the top of the Premiership - the Blue Square Premiership.
On March 4th betting to win the Conference outright was as follows:
Grimsby 9/4f
Wrexham 11/4
Mansfield 4/1
Kidderminster 5/1
Newport 8/1
Two weeks later the prices are:
Mansfield 5/4f
Wrexham 100/30 (bet365)
Kidderminster 7/2 (Coral)
Newport 8/1 (Bet Victor)
Grimsby 20/1 (Bet Victor)
On Sunday Grimsby play Wrexham at Wembley in the final of the FA Trophy. Whilst both clubs insist the league is priority, both appear to have been distracted by this engagement, particularly The Mariners who have lost their last four games - both Forest Green and Macclesfield are now chasing Grimsby's promotion play-off place.
A feature of Wrexham's season has been the dropping of points at home against clubs they might have expected to beat.
Draws against Gateshead, Tamworth, Southport and Alfreton are starting to look expensive. The Welsh club has the most difficult run-in, scheduled to play Mansfield twice and Kidderminster at home. In addition the sharing of the Racecourse Ground with a rugby league team through the majority of the season has not been ideal and played its part in the postponement of the Mansfield fixture on Tuesday.
The Stags are on a phenomenal run. Following their 2-1 defeat at home to Liverpool in the FA Cup third round on 6th January, they have lost just two games - at home to Kidderminster and away to Newport - have won their last nine in a row and on current form look like champions elect.
A fortnight ago Newport County (8/1) were a value play for the title but a home defeat by Kidderminster in the interim has hurt prospects.
Of those teams challenging for the title, Newport's fixture congestion is the most severe - the club's call for the season to be extended, reiterated by Ebbsfleet boss Liam Daish, is likely to fall on deaf ears as the Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Wembley on May 25th.
Kidderminster currently sit top of the league on goal difference having played more games than all their rivals. Two away games, at Luton and Wrexham, will be keenly contested.
This evening Mansfield are in pole position and the layers have priced the market accordingly but we should expect a few twists and turns before the end of the season; the two games against Wrexham will be key.
Those wanting to take a view may wish to await the outcome of Sunday's FA Trophy final before risking long-time league leaders Wrexham at around the 100/30 mark.
On March 4th betting to win the Conference outright was as follows:
Grimsby 9/4f
Wrexham 11/4
Mansfield 4/1
Kidderminster 5/1
Newport 8/1
Two weeks later the prices are:
Mansfield 5/4f
Wrexham 100/30 (bet365)
Kidderminster 7/2 (Coral)
Newport 8/1 (Bet Victor)
Grimsby 20/1 (Bet Victor)
On Sunday Grimsby play Wrexham at Wembley in the final of the FA Trophy. Whilst both clubs insist the league is priority, both appear to have been distracted by this engagement, particularly The Mariners who have lost their last four games - both Forest Green and Macclesfield are now chasing Grimsby's promotion play-off place.
A feature of Wrexham's season has been the dropping of points at home against clubs they might have expected to beat.
Draws against Gateshead, Tamworth, Southport and Alfreton are starting to look expensive. The Welsh club has the most difficult run-in, scheduled to play Mansfield twice and Kidderminster at home. In addition the sharing of the Racecourse Ground with a rugby league team through the majority of the season has not been ideal and played its part in the postponement of the Mansfield fixture on Tuesday.
The Stags are on a phenomenal run. Following their 2-1 defeat at home to Liverpool in the FA Cup third round on 6th January, they have lost just two games - at home to Kidderminster and away to Newport - have won their last nine in a row and on current form look like champions elect.
A fortnight ago Newport County (8/1) were a value play for the title but a home defeat by Kidderminster in the interim has hurt prospects.
Of those teams challenging for the title, Newport's fixture congestion is the most severe - the club's call for the season to be extended, reiterated by Ebbsfleet boss Liam Daish, is likely to fall on deaf ears as the Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Wembley on May 25th.
Kidderminster currently sit top of the league on goal difference having played more games than all their rivals. Two away games, at Luton and Wrexham, will be keenly contested.
This evening Mansfield are in pole position and the layers have priced the market accordingly but we should expect a few twists and turns before the end of the season; the two games against Wrexham will be key.
Those wanting to take a view may wish to await the outcome of Sunday's FA Trophy final before risking long-time league leaders Wrexham at around the 100/30 mark.
Friday, March 15, 2013
Cheltenham Festival 2013 - the debrief
From a betting perspective, something of a curate's egg of a Festival - the favourites seemed to oblige when I took a chance and the outsiders obliged when I supported the favourite. It was ever thus.
Here are the profit / loss figures for the blog's Festival selections at recorded starting prices:
Tuesday 12th March
RET
Dodging Bullets 9th 12/1 0.5pts EW 0.00
Zarkander 4th 7/2 1pt WIN 0.00
Countrywide Flame 3rd 16/1 0.5pts EW 2.50
Fruity O'Rooney 5th 10/1 0.5pts EW 1.75 (layer pays 5 places)
Wednesday 13th March
Pont Alexandre 3rd 6/4F 1pt WIN 0.00
Unioniste 4th 5/2F 1pt WIN 0.00
Milord 4th 16/1 0.5EW 2.50
Sgt Reckless 13th 8/1 1pt WIN 0.00
Thursday 14 March
Dynaste 2nd 11/8F 1pt WIN 0.00
Ely Brown 6th 20/1 0.5EW 0.00
Cue Card 1st 7/2 1pt WIN 4.50
Oscar Whisky PU 9/4F 1pt WIN 0.00
Hunt Ball 4th 8/1 0.5EW 1.40 (Rule 4 10% deduction)
Friday 15 March
Long Run 3rd 7/2 1pt WIN 0.00
The Giant Bolster 4th 16/1 0.5EW 0.00
Total outlay: 15pts
Total returns: 12.65pts
Profit/loss: -2.35pts
Win strike rate: 6.67%
Loss as % of turnover: 15.67%
An honourable mention must go to Ely Brown (20/1) who ran a fine race in Thursday's Pertemps Final but faded out of the placings up the famous Cheltenham hill.
For the future:The New One following his victory in the Neptune.
Ride of the week: Liam Treadwell on the front-running Carrickboy who obliged at 50/1 in Thursday's Byrne Group Plate.
Quote of the week, courtesy of Channel 4's Simon Holt: 'Sprinter Sacre - a steeplechaser from the gods.'
Upset of the week: 20/1 shot Oscar Delta's unseating of 18 year-old amateur Jane Mangan when appearing to have Friday's Foxhunter Chase in safe-keeping. Form book reads: '3 lengths clear last, staying on looked in command when jinked left and unseated rider flat.'
And finally spare a thought this evening for J.T. McNamara who remains in an induced coma following his fall from Galaxy Rock in Thursday's Kim Muir.
Here are the profit / loss figures for the blog's Festival selections at recorded starting prices:
Tuesday 12th March
RET
Dodging Bullets 9th 12/1 0.5pts EW 0.00
Zarkander 4th 7/2 1pt WIN 0.00
Countrywide Flame 3rd 16/1 0.5pts EW 2.50
Fruity O'Rooney 5th 10/1 0.5pts EW 1.75 (layer pays 5 places)
Wednesday 13th March
Pont Alexandre 3rd 6/4F 1pt WIN 0.00
Unioniste 4th 5/2F 1pt WIN 0.00
Milord 4th 16/1 0.5EW 2.50
Sgt Reckless 13th 8/1 1pt WIN 0.00
Thursday 14 March
Dynaste 2nd 11/8F 1pt WIN 0.00
Ely Brown 6th 20/1 0.5EW 0.00
Cue Card 1st 7/2 1pt WIN 4.50
Oscar Whisky PU 9/4F 1pt WIN 0.00
Hunt Ball 4th 8/1 0.5EW 1.40 (Rule 4 10% deduction)
Friday 15 March
Long Run 3rd 7/2 1pt WIN 0.00
The Giant Bolster 4th 16/1 0.5EW 0.00
Total outlay: 15pts
Total returns: 12.65pts
Profit/loss: -2.35pts
Win strike rate: 6.67%
Loss as % of turnover: 15.67%
An honourable mention must go to Ely Brown (20/1) who ran a fine race in Thursday's Pertemps Final but faded out of the placings up the famous Cheltenham hill.
For the future:The New One following his victory in the Neptune.
Ride of the week: Liam Treadwell on the front-running Carrickboy who obliged at 50/1 in Thursday's Byrne Group Plate.
Quote of the week, courtesy of Channel 4's Simon Holt: 'Sprinter Sacre - a steeplechaser from the gods.'
Upset of the week: 20/1 shot Oscar Delta's unseating of 18 year-old amateur Jane Mangan when appearing to have Friday's Foxhunter Chase in safe-keeping. Form book reads: '3 lengths clear last, staying on looked in command when jinked left and unseated rider flat.'
And finally spare a thought this evening for J.T. McNamara who remains in an induced coma following his fall from Galaxy Rock in Thursday's Kim Muir.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Gold Cup day
Tomorrow's Gold Cup looks an intriguing renewal with 11 declared and the winner most likely to come from the first four in the market. In the past decade the favourite has obliged on six occasions; in that timeframe Synchronised was the biggest-priced winner, returned at 8/1 last year.
Nicky Henderson's Bobs Worth, rated 171, appears the worthy favourite. Small but with the heart of a lion, he won the RSA Chase last year, the Hennessy in December and is unbeaten at the track.
The worry is his preparation; he was forced to miss an engagement in the Argento Chase on account of a 'low grade' infection. Supporters point out that he has run well previously following a long lay-off but in the past 20 years every Gold Cup winner had seen the racetrack after the Christmas Day.
Ireland's main hope is Sir Des Champs. Last season he won the Jewson at the Cheltenham Festival and went on to take the Champion Novice Chase at the Punchestown Festival over a trip of three miles one furlong. This one clearly likes the track and supporters expect further improvement over the extended trip here. Off a rating of 168, he has something to find with the other principals.
On official ratings Silviniaco Conti (175) is the best horse in the race. This season he has beaten Wayward Prince in the Charlie Hall, Long Run and The Giant Bolster in the Betfair Chase and The Giant Bolster again in the Denman Chase, giving that rival four pounds on that occasion.
The slight worry is that all his wins at three miles plus have come on flat courses and there's a question as to whether he'll act on this track and see out the extended three mile two furlongs with the stiff uphill finish. In 2010 he won the Coral Hurdle over two miles three and sixteen months ago as a novice was quick enough to win over two miles five at Wincanton.
Long Run won the 2011 Gold Cup recording a rating of 179 in the process; his third in last year's renewal was given a mark of 182 yet this season he has struggled, given 172 for his neck defeat of Captain Chris in the King George at Kempton.
Amateur jockey Mr Sam Waley-Cohen, the owner's son, is on record as saying ideally he'd like to fit cheekpieces to his mount half way through the race; clearly that's not possible so connections will try the sheepskin aids for the first time tomorrow. This one is not the most fluent of jumpers and has a tendency to throw in the odd howler here and there, yet often his momentum seems unaffected. Following his jumping performance in the Feltham in 2009, a race he won, I never thought he could win a Gold Cup but, yet again, I've been proven wrong.
You pay your money and takes your choice; 6/1 Long Run looks reasonable value for a horse that's been there and done it before.
The each-way chances appear to be Captain Chris, Cape Tribulation and The Giant Bolster.
Captan Chris has had an excellent season and looked unlucky in the King George, although he came on the scene from a different parish that day. Better ground will suit but connections say he prefers to race right-handed.
At the age of nine Cape Tribulation is in the form of his life and in Denis O'Regan has the perfect partner for his hold-up style of running.
I backed The Giant Bolster each-way at 66/1 last year and just for a moment I thought he might win. He didn't and in the past placed horses haven't tended to improve enough to win. His jumping can look a little fragile on occasions but he certainly acts on the the track.
I'm aware Long Run bids to become only the second horse in history to regain the Gold Cup (and Oscar Whisky's run earlier today is an additional worry) but at eight years of age he's young enough. I take Long Run to win (6/1 Ladbrokes) with The Giant Bolster the each-way chance at around 14/1.
I've been impressed with Gevrey Chambertin this season and David Pipe will have done his utmost to ensure the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle is won for his father but the grey has his share of weight (although Tom Bellamy claims six) and there's no value in his price.
In similar vein, thirty five minutes later Nicky Henderson saddles six of the 24 runners in the race named after his father.
Nicky Henderson's Bobs Worth, rated 171, appears the worthy favourite. Small but with the heart of a lion, he won the RSA Chase last year, the Hennessy in December and is unbeaten at the track.
The worry is his preparation; he was forced to miss an engagement in the Argento Chase on account of a 'low grade' infection. Supporters point out that he has run well previously following a long lay-off but in the past 20 years every Gold Cup winner had seen the racetrack after the Christmas Day.
Ireland's main hope is Sir Des Champs. Last season he won the Jewson at the Cheltenham Festival and went on to take the Champion Novice Chase at the Punchestown Festival over a trip of three miles one furlong. This one clearly likes the track and supporters expect further improvement over the extended trip here. Off a rating of 168, he has something to find with the other principals.
On official ratings Silviniaco Conti (175) is the best horse in the race. This season he has beaten Wayward Prince in the Charlie Hall, Long Run and The Giant Bolster in the Betfair Chase and The Giant Bolster again in the Denman Chase, giving that rival four pounds on that occasion.
The slight worry is that all his wins at three miles plus have come on flat courses and there's a question as to whether he'll act on this track and see out the extended three mile two furlongs with the stiff uphill finish. In 2010 he won the Coral Hurdle over two miles three and sixteen months ago as a novice was quick enough to win over two miles five at Wincanton.
Long Run won the 2011 Gold Cup recording a rating of 179 in the process; his third in last year's renewal was given a mark of 182 yet this season he has struggled, given 172 for his neck defeat of Captain Chris in the King George at Kempton.
Amateur jockey Mr Sam Waley-Cohen, the owner's son, is on record as saying ideally he'd like to fit cheekpieces to his mount half way through the race; clearly that's not possible so connections will try the sheepskin aids for the first time tomorrow. This one is not the most fluent of jumpers and has a tendency to throw in the odd howler here and there, yet often his momentum seems unaffected. Following his jumping performance in the Feltham in 2009, a race he won, I never thought he could win a Gold Cup but, yet again, I've been proven wrong.
You pay your money and takes your choice; 6/1 Long Run looks reasonable value for a horse that's been there and done it before.
The each-way chances appear to be Captain Chris, Cape Tribulation and The Giant Bolster.
Captan Chris has had an excellent season and looked unlucky in the King George, although he came on the scene from a different parish that day. Better ground will suit but connections say he prefers to race right-handed.
At the age of nine Cape Tribulation is in the form of his life and in Denis O'Regan has the perfect partner for his hold-up style of running.
I backed The Giant Bolster each-way at 66/1 last year and just for a moment I thought he might win. He didn't and in the past placed horses haven't tended to improve enough to win. His jumping can look a little fragile on occasions but he certainly acts on the the track.
I'm aware Long Run bids to become only the second horse in history to regain the Gold Cup (and Oscar Whisky's run earlier today is an additional worry) but at eight years of age he's young enough. I take Long Run to win (6/1 Ladbrokes) with The Giant Bolster the each-way chance at around 14/1.
I've been impressed with Gevrey Chambertin this season and David Pipe will have done his utmost to ensure the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle is won for his father but the grey has his share of weight (although Tom Bellamy claims six) and there's no value in his price.
In similar vein, thirty five minutes later Nicky Henderson saddles six of the 24 runners in the race named after his father.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Thursday
Struggling for time today, so quick picks for tomorrow's races...
1.30 Jewson: On official ratings Dynaste has upwards of nine pounds in hand over the field and is the form selection.
2.05 Pertemps Hurdle: Paul Nicholls has said Sam Winner is his best chance of a winner at the entire meeting while Dan Skelton put up American Trilogy as the stable's best outsider of the entire meet. A look through American Trilogy's form suggests he may not quite stay this trip - I prefer Warwick winner Ely Brown who has shown plenty of improvement for Charlie Longsdon and rates an each-way wager at around the 20/1 mark.
2.40 Ryanair Chase: Only eight runners but a rather trappy looking affair. Riverside Theatre, owned by James Nesbitt and partners, beat Albertas Run in this last year; Albertas is probably past his best at the age of twelve but he has proved a fine servant who shows his best form on good ground. Cue Card has been diverted from the Champion Chase, First Lieutenant the Gold Cup, while Menorah doesn't jump well enough. In the past eight renewals the winner has come form the first three in the bettng on seven occasions - First Lieutenant hasn't won since his novice days so Cue Card gets the vote.
3.20 World Hurdle: No Big Buck's so an open-looking affair. Reve De Sivola's neck defeat of Oscar Whisky at the track seven weeks ago is a key piece of form. Doubts about Oscar Whisky's ability to stay the trip were dispelled that day and the drying ground may just help Nicky Henderson's charge - I'm going to give Oscar Whisky another chance...
4.00 Byrne Group Plate: Ballynagour made an impression on his debut in this country for the Pipe yard but course and distance winner Hunt Ball is given an each-way chance over this trip on drying ground.
1.30 Jewson: On official ratings Dynaste has upwards of nine pounds in hand over the field and is the form selection.
2.05 Pertemps Hurdle: Paul Nicholls has said Sam Winner is his best chance of a winner at the entire meeting while Dan Skelton put up American Trilogy as the stable's best outsider of the entire meet. A look through American Trilogy's form suggests he may not quite stay this trip - I prefer Warwick winner Ely Brown who has shown plenty of improvement for Charlie Longsdon and rates an each-way wager at around the 20/1 mark.
2.40 Ryanair Chase: Only eight runners but a rather trappy looking affair. Riverside Theatre, owned by James Nesbitt and partners, beat Albertas Run in this last year; Albertas is probably past his best at the age of twelve but he has proved a fine servant who shows his best form on good ground. Cue Card has been diverted from the Champion Chase, First Lieutenant the Gold Cup, while Menorah doesn't jump well enough. In the past eight renewals the winner has come form the first three in the bettng on seven occasions - First Lieutenant hasn't won since his novice days so Cue Card gets the vote.
3.20 World Hurdle: No Big Buck's so an open-looking affair. Reve De Sivola's neck defeat of Oscar Whisky at the track seven weeks ago is a key piece of form. Doubts about Oscar Whisky's ability to stay the trip were dispelled that day and the drying ground may just help Nicky Henderson's charge - I'm going to give Oscar Whisky another chance...
4.00 Byrne Group Plate: Ballynagour made an impression on his debut in this country for the Pipe yard but course and distance winner Hunt Ball is given an each-way chance over this trip on drying ground.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Wednesday
Traditionally Wednesday's highlight is the Queen Mother Champion Chase; this year's renewal looks a race to enjoy rather than bet on as Sprinter Sacre looks set for an exhibition round.
Nicky Henderson's star has frightened off most of the opposition - with just seven in the field my cunning plan to chance Mail De Bievre each-way has been thwarted. Tom George's inmate has been supplemented at a cost of £17,500 and boasts decent French form over two and a half miles; he raced freely while jumping with exuberance on his debut for the yard before appearing to run out of petrol over the three mile trip at Newbury.
Feedback from a couple of Festival Preview evenings makes me loathe to oppose Willie Mullins' Pont Alexandre in the Neptune; for future reference Sizing Gold is reported to be held in high regard by connections.
With Dynaste heading for the Jewson on Thursday and Back In Focus going in the first race on this card, the RSA market has an open look to it. Houblon Des Obeaux has appeared awkward over the fences on occasions while Hadrian's Approach is a robust sort who tends to throw in a poor leap every now and again. This is a big ask for Goulanes on only his second try over the larger obstacles while Lord Windermere has never raced beyond two miles five before. Of the Willie Mullins pair Terminal is rated four pounds higher than Boston Bob yet the former is 25/1 while the latter is priced up favourite. By opting to ride Unioniste, Ruby Walsh has chosen to ignore their chances and, as Walsh has already shown exemplary powers of decision-making (Champagne Fever and Hurricane Fly), Unioniste gets the nod.
The Coral and the Fred Winter look extremely difficult; one that caught my eye in the 4.40 was Kim Bailey's Milord. This one brings decent Flat form to the table and ran well behind Chatterbox (goes in the Neptune at 2.05) last time out. For those who must, he's an each-way chance at around 20/1.
Over the years I've usually gone to the track on the Wednesday - unfortunately I won't be there this year - and the concluding bumper is a race I always like; this year's field contains several interesting runners. Back in November Mick Channon had to withdraw Sgt Reckless from the bumper at the Open Meeting on account of a small setback. The Times' racing correspondent Alan Lee reported Channon as saying the horse would have won, a nugget that I duly reported on the blog. I can now report that in the intervening four months Sgt Reckless is the name of the horse that has generated the most Google hits on the blog - make of that what you will. In early January Sgt Reckless traded at 33/1 but he's now 7s and Flat jockey Richard Hughes has obtained a special licence to ride in tomorrow's race.
The four-year-old Le Vent D'Antan heads a strong Irish challenge while Willie Mullins saddles three with Walsh riding Briar Hill and Mr P. Mullins Union Dues.
40/1 looks a big a price about Pure Science. After the withdrawal of three runners last week (including Imperial Commander from the Gold Cup) the form of the yard is a worry but The New One's running in the Neptune should provide a yardstick.
I'm Fraam Govan is owned by Sir Alex Ferguson while most of the four-year-olds catch the eye. Joseph O'Brien, another Flat jockey, rides Shield for his father Aidan and I've heard a word for Vieux Lion Rouge and Johnny Og - both will be worth monitoring in the future.
This year I've come across more tips for this race than I can shake a stick at but the selection has to be... Sgt Reckless!
Nicky Henderson's star has frightened off most of the opposition - with just seven in the field my cunning plan to chance Mail De Bievre each-way has been thwarted. Tom George's inmate has been supplemented at a cost of £17,500 and boasts decent French form over two and a half miles; he raced freely while jumping with exuberance on his debut for the yard before appearing to run out of petrol over the three mile trip at Newbury.
Feedback from a couple of Festival Preview evenings makes me loathe to oppose Willie Mullins' Pont Alexandre in the Neptune; for future reference Sizing Gold is reported to be held in high regard by connections.
With Dynaste heading for the Jewson on Thursday and Back In Focus going in the first race on this card, the RSA market has an open look to it. Houblon Des Obeaux has appeared awkward over the fences on occasions while Hadrian's Approach is a robust sort who tends to throw in a poor leap every now and again. This is a big ask for Goulanes on only his second try over the larger obstacles while Lord Windermere has never raced beyond two miles five before. Of the Willie Mullins pair Terminal is rated four pounds higher than Boston Bob yet the former is 25/1 while the latter is priced up favourite. By opting to ride Unioniste, Ruby Walsh has chosen to ignore their chances and, as Walsh has already shown exemplary powers of decision-making (Champagne Fever and Hurricane Fly), Unioniste gets the nod.
The Coral and the Fred Winter look extremely difficult; one that caught my eye in the 4.40 was Kim Bailey's Milord. This one brings decent Flat form to the table and ran well behind Chatterbox (goes in the Neptune at 2.05) last time out. For those who must, he's an each-way chance at around 20/1.
Over the years I've usually gone to the track on the Wednesday - unfortunately I won't be there this year - and the concluding bumper is a race I always like; this year's field contains several interesting runners. Back in November Mick Channon had to withdraw Sgt Reckless from the bumper at the Open Meeting on account of a small setback. The Times' racing correspondent Alan Lee reported Channon as saying the horse would have won, a nugget that I duly reported on the blog. I can now report that in the intervening four months Sgt Reckless is the name of the horse that has generated the most Google hits on the blog - make of that what you will. In early January Sgt Reckless traded at 33/1 but he's now 7s and Flat jockey Richard Hughes has obtained a special licence to ride in tomorrow's race.
The four-year-old Le Vent D'Antan heads a strong Irish challenge while Willie Mullins saddles three with Walsh riding Briar Hill and Mr P. Mullins Union Dues.
40/1 looks a big a price about Pure Science. After the withdrawal of three runners last week (including Imperial Commander from the Gold Cup) the form of the yard is a worry but The New One's running in the Neptune should provide a yardstick.
I'm Fraam Govan is owned by Sir Alex Ferguson while most of the four-year-olds catch the eye. Joseph O'Brien, another Flat jockey, rides Shield for his father Aidan and I've heard a word for Vieux Lion Rouge and Johnny Og - both will be worth monitoring in the future.
This year I've come across more tips for this race than I can shake a stick at but the selection has to be... Sgt Reckless!
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Tuesday
The feature on the opening day, the Champion Hurdle, sees 2011 winner Hurricane Fly trying to regain his crown - the last horse to pull off this particular trick was Comedy Of Errors in 1975. Since the great Sea Pigeon won back-to-back victories in 1980/81, only two nine-year-olds have come home in front - Royal Gait (1992) and Rooster Booster (2003).
The stats may be against the favourite but his racecourse record stands the closest of inspections - 15 victories and two defeats in 17 outings.Those who want to oppose may wish to do so with Paddy Power who offer money back on all losing win wagers (up to a maximum £100) if 'The Fly' wins.
With underfoot conditions predicted to be soft, the ground appears to have gone against Cinders And Ashes and would be a slight worry for last year's winner Rock On Ruby. Trainer Harry Fry boasts a strike rate of over 30% (17 wins from just 55 runs) in this his first full season; the handler has decided to fit blinkers to his charge for the first time.
A worry for all particpiants is the lack of an obvious pacemaker in the race; a tactical running of the Champion Hurdle looks a distinct possibility. The ground holds no fears for Zarkander - his defeat of Grandouet and Rock On Ruby in the International last December was impressive but he received two pounds from the runner-up and four from the current champion that day.
Henderson saddles three - Binocular, another nine-year old looking to repeat former glories, Grandouet and Khyber Kim. This is just the season's second racecourse outing for both Binocular and Grandouet.
A fascinating renewal - Zarkander is the selection while Countrywide Flame (16/1) rates a value each-way wager, although in the past thirty years only two five-year-olds have taken the crown - See You Then (1985) and Katchit (2008).
William Hill pay a quarter the odds five places in the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle - two each-ways suggestions against favourite My Tent Or Yours together with the rest of the field - Melodic Rendezvous and Dodging Bullets.
The Arkle is a race to savour rather than one to bet on. The build-up has concentrated on Simonsig and the front-running Overturn. The latter-named has done this blog many a favour over the years but he wouldn't want the ground too soft; Simonsig is preferred while Tom George's Majala could run a race that belies his price.
One other suggestion for the opening day - Alfie Sherrin pipped an old favourite of mine Fruity O'Rooney (no relation to Wayne) one length in last year's running of the JLT Speciality Handicap Chase (Our Mick third). Fruity races off a mark one pound lower this year and his second behind Katenko last time out catches the eye - Our Mick was travelling well in that same race on his seasonal debut when unseating Jason Maguire three from home. Our Mick heads the market, having the look of one laid out for this, but Fruity O'Rooney races prominently and can establish a rhythm from the front - he rates an each-way bet at around the 10/1 mark.
Postscript [added 11.03.13 14:00]: Melodic Rendezvous not declared for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle following a bad scope.
The stats may be against the favourite but his racecourse record stands the closest of inspections - 15 victories and two defeats in 17 outings.Those who want to oppose may wish to do so with Paddy Power who offer money back on all losing win wagers (up to a maximum £100) if 'The Fly' wins.
With underfoot conditions predicted to be soft, the ground appears to have gone against Cinders And Ashes and would be a slight worry for last year's winner Rock On Ruby. Trainer Harry Fry boasts a strike rate of over 30% (17 wins from just 55 runs) in this his first full season; the handler has decided to fit blinkers to his charge for the first time.
A worry for all particpiants is the lack of an obvious pacemaker in the race; a tactical running of the Champion Hurdle looks a distinct possibility. The ground holds no fears for Zarkander - his defeat of Grandouet and Rock On Ruby in the International last December was impressive but he received two pounds from the runner-up and four from the current champion that day.
Henderson saddles three - Binocular, another nine-year old looking to repeat former glories, Grandouet and Khyber Kim. This is just the season's second racecourse outing for both Binocular and Grandouet.
A fascinating renewal - Zarkander is the selection while Countrywide Flame (16/1) rates a value each-way wager, although in the past thirty years only two five-year-olds have taken the crown - See You Then (1985) and Katchit (2008).
William Hill pay a quarter the odds five places in the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle - two each-ways suggestions against favourite My Tent Or Yours together with the rest of the field - Melodic Rendezvous and Dodging Bullets.
The Arkle is a race to savour rather than one to bet on. The build-up has concentrated on Simonsig and the front-running Overturn. The latter-named has done this blog many a favour over the years but he wouldn't want the ground too soft; Simonsig is preferred while Tom George's Majala could run a race that belies his price.
One other suggestion for the opening day - Alfie Sherrin pipped an old favourite of mine Fruity O'Rooney (no relation to Wayne) one length in last year's running of the JLT Speciality Handicap Chase (Our Mick third). Fruity races off a mark one pound lower this year and his second behind Katenko last time out catches the eye - Our Mick was travelling well in that same race on his seasonal debut when unseating Jason Maguire three from home. Our Mick heads the market, having the look of one laid out for this, but Fruity O'Rooney races prominently and can establish a rhythm from the front - he rates an each-way bet at around the 10/1 mark.
Postscript [added 11.03.13 14:00]: Melodic Rendezvous not declared for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle following a bad scope.
Friday, March 08, 2013
Nicholls top Festival trainer?
The top trainer market for the 2013 Cheltenham Festival is dominated by Nicky Henderson (4/6f) and Willie Mullins (2/1) yet last year's champion NH trainer, Paul Nicholls, can be backed at 10/1 in places (Betfred, William Hill).
Most of us understand why Henderson and Mullins are at the head of affairs but 10/1 is a big enough price about Nicholls who has traditionally fared well at this meeting so I thought I'd do some basic spadework on the trainer's horses for next week.
Here's a selection of his entries (with indicative prices only) which were correct (I think) at the time of publishing this post...
Tuesday
1.30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Dodging Bullets (9/1)
2.40 JLT Speciality Handicap Chase: Rolling Aces (12/1)
3.20 Champion Hurdle: Zarkander (9/2)
5.15 Pulteney Novices' Handicap Chase: Rebel Rebellion (20/1 [runs 4.25 Sandown, Sat.])
Wednesday
1.30 John Oaksey National Hunt Chase: Hawkes Point (16/1)
2.30 RSA Chase: Unioniste (4/1)
3.20 Champion Chase: Sanctuaire (16/1)
4.00 Coral Cup: Wonderful Charm (was 7/1 but drifting), Salubrious (20/1), Brampour (33/1)
4.40 Fred Winter Hurdle: Saphir Du Rheu (7/1), Pitt Zig (9/1)
5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper: Fascino Rustico (16/1)
Thursday
1.30 Jewson Novices' Chase: Unioniste (14/1)
2.05 Pertemps Final: Sam Winner (4/1), American Trilogy (20/1)
2.40 Ryanair Chase: Ghizao (33/1)
3.20 World Hurdle: Wonderful Charm (12/1), Celestial Halo (33/1), Prospect Wells (40/1)
4.00 Byrne Group Chase: Poquelin (20/1), Domtaline (20/1)
4.40 Kim Muir: Harry The Viking (16/1)
Friday
1.30 Triumph Hurdle: Far West (4/1)
2.05 County Hurdle: Mr Mole (6/1 [runs Imperial Cup, Sat.]), Hinterland (20/1), Edgardo Sol (25/1)
2.40 Albert Bartlett: Aaim To Prosper (20/1), Aerial (33/1), Easter Day (33/1), Pay The King (40/1)
3.20 Gold Cup: Silviniaco Conti (4/1)
4.40 Martin Pipe: Salubrious (14/1)
5.15 Grand Annual: Ulck Du Lin (8/1), Toubab (16/1), Shooters Wood (16/1), Edgardo Sol (25/1)
Henderson deserves his position at the head of the market but there are some reasonable chances listed above which makes the 10/1 on offer look big to this observer.
Late tweet from the trainer himself - he rates Sam Winner his best chance of the week and is 'very hopeful' about Zarkander and Silviniaco Conti.
Most of us understand why Henderson and Mullins are at the head of affairs but 10/1 is a big enough price about Nicholls who has traditionally fared well at this meeting so I thought I'd do some basic spadework on the trainer's horses for next week.
Here's a selection of his entries (with indicative prices only) which were correct (I think) at the time of publishing this post...
Tuesday
1.30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Dodging Bullets (9/1)
2.40 JLT Speciality Handicap Chase: Rolling Aces (12/1)
3.20 Champion Hurdle: Zarkander (9/2)
5.15 Pulteney Novices' Handicap Chase: Rebel Rebellion (20/1 [runs 4.25 Sandown, Sat.])
Wednesday
1.30 John Oaksey National Hunt Chase: Hawkes Point (16/1)
2.30 RSA Chase: Unioniste (4/1)
3.20 Champion Chase: Sanctuaire (16/1)
4.00 Coral Cup: Wonderful Charm (was 7/1 but drifting), Salubrious (20/1), Brampour (33/1)
4.40 Fred Winter Hurdle: Saphir Du Rheu (7/1), Pitt Zig (9/1)
5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper: Fascino Rustico (16/1)
Thursday
1.30 Jewson Novices' Chase: Unioniste (14/1)
2.05 Pertemps Final: Sam Winner (4/1), American Trilogy (20/1)
2.40 Ryanair Chase: Ghizao (33/1)
3.20 World Hurdle: Wonderful Charm (12/1), Celestial Halo (33/1), Prospect Wells (40/1)
4.00 Byrne Group Chase: Poquelin (20/1), Domtaline (20/1)
4.40 Kim Muir: Harry The Viking (16/1)
Friday
1.30 Triumph Hurdle: Far West (4/1)
2.05 County Hurdle: Mr Mole (6/1 [runs Imperial Cup, Sat.]), Hinterland (20/1), Edgardo Sol (25/1)
2.40 Albert Bartlett: Aaim To Prosper (20/1), Aerial (33/1), Easter Day (33/1), Pay The King (40/1)
3.20 Gold Cup: Silviniaco Conti (4/1)
4.40 Martin Pipe: Salubrious (14/1)
5.15 Grand Annual: Ulck Du Lin (8/1), Toubab (16/1), Shooters Wood (16/1), Edgardo Sol (25/1)
Henderson deserves his position at the head of the market but there are some reasonable chances listed above which makes the 10/1 on offer look big to this observer.
Late tweet from the trainer himself - he rates Sam Winner his best chance of the week and is 'very hopeful' about Zarkander and Silviniaco Conti.
Friday, March 01, 2013
Doncaster's Grimthorpe Chase 2013
I always try to conserve funds at this time of year, with Cheltenham just around the corner, so just the one suggestion from tomorrow's cards...
Twelve go to post in Doncaster's Grimthorpe Chase (2.55); the bottom three race from out of the handicap.
Both Calgary Bay and Join Together are tasked with giving significant weight to their opponents in a race where the winner has tended to come from those carrying less than 11 stones.
Join Together, second in the Becher at Aintree last December, looks to be using this as a stepping stone to the National. Paul Nicholls' charge heads the market followed by Emma Lavelle's Court By Surprise who won over three miles at this track on December 15th (beat Night In Milan, Corkage, Ikorodu Road, Quentin Collonges and Mr Moonshine that day); the negative is that was 77 days ago and the yard hasn't had a winner since.
Ikorudu Road is one that I like and he likes it here having won last year's runnng although he may have been slightly fortunate to benefit from the final fence fall of Pentiffic; he races off 138 tomorrow, a mark 8 lbs higher.
Trainer Keith Reveley thinks there isn't much between his pair, Corkage and Night In Milan. Both charges have mixed hurdling and chasing of late - in particular Corkage will need to establish a decent rhythm early as he tends to race up with the pace. The market clearly prefers Night In Milan (7/1) while Corkage is on offer at 14/1 in places.
Mr Moonshine was 38 lengths behind Court By Surprise in December but his subsequent second to Cape Tribulation (has gone on to win the Argento at Cheltenham and now quoted a 25/1 chance for the Gold Cup) in Wetherby's Rowland Meryck reads well.
Evan Williams' Mr Moss is possibly a liitle less exposed than some of these but has form behind Wyck Hill to his name and has had this as his target for some time.
At the prices, I'll take an each-way interest in last year's winner Ikorodu Road (10/1 Ladbrokes. Coral).
Twelve go to post in Doncaster's Grimthorpe Chase (2.55); the bottom three race from out of the handicap.
Both Calgary Bay and Join Together are tasked with giving significant weight to their opponents in a race where the winner has tended to come from those carrying less than 11 stones.
Join Together, second in the Becher at Aintree last December, looks to be using this as a stepping stone to the National. Paul Nicholls' charge heads the market followed by Emma Lavelle's Court By Surprise who won over three miles at this track on December 15th (beat Night In Milan, Corkage, Ikorodu Road, Quentin Collonges and Mr Moonshine that day); the negative is that was 77 days ago and the yard hasn't had a winner since.
Ikorudu Road is one that I like and he likes it here having won last year's runnng although he may have been slightly fortunate to benefit from the final fence fall of Pentiffic; he races off 138 tomorrow, a mark 8 lbs higher.
Trainer Keith Reveley thinks there isn't much between his pair, Corkage and Night In Milan. Both charges have mixed hurdling and chasing of late - in particular Corkage will need to establish a decent rhythm early as he tends to race up with the pace. The market clearly prefers Night In Milan (7/1) while Corkage is on offer at 14/1 in places.
Mr Moonshine was 38 lengths behind Court By Surprise in December but his subsequent second to Cape Tribulation (has gone on to win the Argento at Cheltenham and now quoted a 25/1 chance for the Gold Cup) in Wetherby's Rowland Meryck reads well.
Evan Williams' Mr Moss is possibly a liitle less exposed than some of these but has form behind Wyck Hill to his name and has had this as his target for some time.
At the prices, I'll take an each-way interest in last year's winner Ikorodu Road (10/1 Ladbrokes. Coral).
Friday, February 22, 2013
Each-way chances in the Racing Plus Chase and the Eider
Good ground for tomorrow's top class card at Kempton where the feature Racing Plus Chase (3.50) has thirteen entered. Wyck Hill, now in the ownership of J P McManus, has made the headlines this week and looks set to go off favourite, with a trip over Aintree's National fences beckoning if all goes well here. A decent display from Wyck Hill will do Venetia Williams' Katenko (entered in the Gold Cup and the National) no harm at all, although punters reading Wednesday's Hereford Times would be confused as to exactly which race Williams was reported to be 'excited about'...
Last year's winner Nacarat needs good ground to be seen at his best, a comment that also applies to top weight What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. The former has been tipped up each-way in several places while the latter is quirky but has run well fresh in the past, although I was surprised to see this is his first attempt racing right-handed. It should be noted that a big weight has proved no barrier to success. Eight of the past ten winners have carried 11-0 or more to victory; three of those eight were burdened with 11-12.
I haven't spent a long time on this race. Nacarat (10/1 Stan James) is the each-way suggestion for the more cautious while I'm going to chance What A Friend each-way (25/1 Stan James) - Harry Dereham claims a useful-looking five pounds.
There are small fields on the remainder of the card - the outcomes will prove informative but beforehand they look decidedly trappy - so instead I've decided to take an each-way interest in Tim Vaughan's Our Island in the Eider Chase at Newcastle (2.55). This one ran well for a long way in the Welsh National at Chepstow; having said that, I said something similar about Triggerman this time last week but he was pulled up behind Well Refreshed in the Peter Marsh at Haydock. The Welsh National form didn't stand up to the closest scrutiny at Haydock (Viking Blond fifth, Teaforthree most disappointing in tenth, Master Overseer pulled up) but at least winner Monbeg Dude made a place in third.
Master Overseer has top weight tomorrow but appears to have two ways of running - he won a Veterans' Chase at Wincanton three weeks ago and pilot Tom Bellamy can claim seven. Only seven of the 14 race off their correct handicap mark with Our Island set to carry 10-4; he raced from two pounds out of the handicap at Chepstow and since then was withdrawn on the day from an intended engagement in the West Wales National at Ffos Las.
Cool Operator is respected and his defeat of Rigadin De Beauchene (has gone on to win the Classic Chase at Warwick and finish second in the Peter Marsh) reads well but that was over two and a half miles. Likely favourite Chac Du Cadran won easily from the front last time but has been raised 11 pounds for his trouble
On his penultimate start the selection finished third in the Axminster Carpets Devon Marathon Handicap Chase over four miles. Our Island is Tim Vaughan's sole runner at Newcastle tomorrow - I'm guessing the handler isn't sending his charge all the way to Newcastle from his south Wales base if he doesn't think the gelding is in with a squeak.
Last year's winner Nacarat needs good ground to be seen at his best, a comment that also applies to top weight What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. The former has been tipped up each-way in several places while the latter is quirky but has run well fresh in the past, although I was surprised to see this is his first attempt racing right-handed. It should be noted that a big weight has proved no barrier to success. Eight of the past ten winners have carried 11-0 or more to victory; three of those eight were burdened with 11-12.
I haven't spent a long time on this race. Nacarat (10/1 Stan James) is the each-way suggestion for the more cautious while I'm going to chance What A Friend each-way (25/1 Stan James) - Harry Dereham claims a useful-looking five pounds.
There are small fields on the remainder of the card - the outcomes will prove informative but beforehand they look decidedly trappy - so instead I've decided to take an each-way interest in Tim Vaughan's Our Island in the Eider Chase at Newcastle (2.55). This one ran well for a long way in the Welsh National at Chepstow; having said that, I said something similar about Triggerman this time last week but he was pulled up behind Well Refreshed in the Peter Marsh at Haydock. The Welsh National form didn't stand up to the closest scrutiny at Haydock (Viking Blond fifth, Teaforthree most disappointing in tenth, Master Overseer pulled up) but at least winner Monbeg Dude made a place in third.
Master Overseer has top weight tomorrow but appears to have two ways of running - he won a Veterans' Chase at Wincanton three weeks ago and pilot Tom Bellamy can claim seven. Only seven of the 14 race off their correct handicap mark with Our Island set to carry 10-4; he raced from two pounds out of the handicap at Chepstow and since then was withdrawn on the day from an intended engagement in the West Wales National at Ffos Las.
Cool Operator is respected and his defeat of Rigadin De Beauchene (has gone on to win the Classic Chase at Warwick and finish second in the Peter Marsh) reads well but that was over two and a half miles. Likely favourite Chac Du Cadran won easily from the front last time but has been raised 11 pounds for his trouble
On his penultimate start the selection finished third in the Axminster Carpets Devon Marathon Handicap Chase over four miles. Our Island is Tim Vaughan's sole runner at Newcastle tomorrow - I'm guessing the handler isn't sending his charge all the way to Newcastle from his south Wales base if he doesn't think the gelding is in with a squeak.
Friday, February 15, 2013
Haydock's National Trial and the Ascot Chase
Alistair Whitehouse-Jones informs us in this week's Weekender that 'the silly season' is nearly upon us, refering to the surfeit of Cheltenham preview nights which are set to take place up and down the country. On balance I share that view - the previews just lead to confusion; in the past I have tended to give these events a wide berth as you end up with more tips than you can shake a stick at, although I did go to last year's event at Haydock racecourse organised by Coral.
Still, this week there has been no shortage of Grand National talk.
Tuesday saw the weights for the 2013 race unveiled over a lunch at the Savoy... No sooner had punters learned that Tidal Bay was tasked to carry top weight than the horse was declared a non-runner after a stress fracture was diagnosed. Following fatalities in the previous two runnings of the Aintree showpiece, racing looks towards this year's renewal with particular trepidation. Yet while the horsemeat scandal may be growing by the day Daily Telegraph cartoonist Matt can see the lighter side with a wry angle on racehorse ownership (cartoon February 15).
Tomorrow's Grand National Trial (2.55) is the highlight on the Haydock card; 14 are declared for the three and a half mile trip which will be run on ground described as heavy. Silver By Nature won the penultimate running of this trial with top weight and tries to repeat the trick but hasn't been seen on course since finishing a distant 12th behind Ballabriggs in the 2011 National. Monbeg Dude, part-owned by former England rugby captain Mike Tindall, denied Teaforthree in the Welsh National last month and generated plenty of headlines in the process; the winner didn't jump well that day and has apparently been booked for schooling sessions with Zara Phillips, Tindall's wife. Teaforthree is three pounds better off for half a length here and is fancied to reverse placings. Cannington Brook has had a couple of hard races of late but last year's winner Giles Cross, the only favourite to oblige in the past decade, is forgiven his effort in the Welsh National (leading four out but quickly pulled up) as the stable was under a cloud at the time. That one deserves respect, as does Well Refreshed who beat Rigadin De Beauchene three and a half lengths in receipt of a stone at Lingfield before Christmas. Since then the former has won the Sussex National at Plumpton while the latter-named has taken the Classic Chase at Warwick - I was at the track that day and Rigadin's jumping wasn't foot-perfect. On Lingfield form, Rigadin has the beating of Gary Moore's charge.
It's a most competitive renewal but I'm going to take an each-way chance on Triggerman (12/1) who ran well for an awful long way in the Welsh National and now has a ten pounds pull with Teaforthree for 11 lengths, while claimer James Best can take off another three. Quoting Richard Johnson after the Welsh National:
"I was getting excited turning in as I knew we were getting plenty of weight from Teaforthree. I'm sure this horse can pick up a decent long-distance chase in the spring."
At Ascot the feature is the surprisingly-named Ascot Chase due off at 3.50; only six go to post but, as the betting suggests, this is trappy. On ratings Finian's Rainbow is the one to beat but he disappointed behind Captain Chris at this course last time out; he's had a minor breathing operation since but has only once raced beyond two and a half miles, finishing third in Newbury's Challow Hurdle to Reve De Sivola. Somersby isn't lightly dismissed after a decent seasonal debut behind Sprinter Sacre in the Victor Chandler but on balance I see the race between Cue Card and Captain Chris. Writing in the Weekender Nick Mordin says of the former '...I rate him the fastest chaser in training by far over more than two miles and less than three.' Captain Chris was the best part of 20 lengths ahead of Cue Card in the King George but Colin Tizzard's charge clearly didn't stay the three mile trip. Will the seven-year-old stay two miles five furlongs 110 yards up the Ascot hill on heavy ground? I'm leaning towards no and, as Captain Chris has four pounds in hand on official ratings, Captain Chris, who has done the blog a favour already this term, is given the vote.
Favourites have won five of the past ten renewals of the Reynoldston (2.05); Rocky Creek looks the one but he'll be no price.
The booking of Ruby Walsh on Queens Grove catches the eye in the handicap hurdle (3.15) but this represents a step up in class for Kevin Bishop's grey mare while course and distance winner Captain Cutter has to give weight to his field but is preferred in the bumper (5.00).
Still, this week there has been no shortage of Grand National talk.
Tuesday saw the weights for the 2013 race unveiled over a lunch at the Savoy... No sooner had punters learned that Tidal Bay was tasked to carry top weight than the horse was declared a non-runner after a stress fracture was diagnosed. Following fatalities in the previous two runnings of the Aintree showpiece, racing looks towards this year's renewal with particular trepidation. Yet while the horsemeat scandal may be growing by the day Daily Telegraph cartoonist Matt can see the lighter side with a wry angle on racehorse ownership (cartoon February 15).
Tomorrow's Grand National Trial (2.55) is the highlight on the Haydock card; 14 are declared for the three and a half mile trip which will be run on ground described as heavy. Silver By Nature won the penultimate running of this trial with top weight and tries to repeat the trick but hasn't been seen on course since finishing a distant 12th behind Ballabriggs in the 2011 National. Monbeg Dude, part-owned by former England rugby captain Mike Tindall, denied Teaforthree in the Welsh National last month and generated plenty of headlines in the process; the winner didn't jump well that day and has apparently been booked for schooling sessions with Zara Phillips, Tindall's wife. Teaforthree is three pounds better off for half a length here and is fancied to reverse placings. Cannington Brook has had a couple of hard races of late but last year's winner Giles Cross, the only favourite to oblige in the past decade, is forgiven his effort in the Welsh National (leading four out but quickly pulled up) as the stable was under a cloud at the time. That one deserves respect, as does Well Refreshed who beat Rigadin De Beauchene three and a half lengths in receipt of a stone at Lingfield before Christmas. Since then the former has won the Sussex National at Plumpton while the latter-named has taken the Classic Chase at Warwick - I was at the track that day and Rigadin's jumping wasn't foot-perfect. On Lingfield form, Rigadin has the beating of Gary Moore's charge.
It's a most competitive renewal but I'm going to take an each-way chance on Triggerman (12/1) who ran well for an awful long way in the Welsh National and now has a ten pounds pull with Teaforthree for 11 lengths, while claimer James Best can take off another three. Quoting Richard Johnson after the Welsh National:
"I was getting excited turning in as I knew we were getting plenty of weight from Teaforthree. I'm sure this horse can pick up a decent long-distance chase in the spring."
At Ascot the feature is the surprisingly-named Ascot Chase due off at 3.50; only six go to post but, as the betting suggests, this is trappy. On ratings Finian's Rainbow is the one to beat but he disappointed behind Captain Chris at this course last time out; he's had a minor breathing operation since but has only once raced beyond two and a half miles, finishing third in Newbury's Challow Hurdle to Reve De Sivola. Somersby isn't lightly dismissed after a decent seasonal debut behind Sprinter Sacre in the Victor Chandler but on balance I see the race between Cue Card and Captain Chris. Writing in the Weekender Nick Mordin says of the former '...I rate him the fastest chaser in training by far over more than two miles and less than three.' Captain Chris was the best part of 20 lengths ahead of Cue Card in the King George but Colin Tizzard's charge clearly didn't stay the three mile trip. Will the seven-year-old stay two miles five furlongs 110 yards up the Ascot hill on heavy ground? I'm leaning towards no and, as Captain Chris has four pounds in hand on official ratings, Captain Chris, who has done the blog a favour already this term, is given the vote.
Favourites have won five of the past ten renewals of the Reynoldston (2.05); Rocky Creek looks the one but he'll be no price.
The booking of Ruby Walsh on Queens Grove catches the eye in the handicap hurdle (3.15) but this represents a step up in class for Kevin Bishop's grey mare while course and distance winner Captain Cutter has to give weight to his field but is preferred in the bumper (5.00).
Friday, February 08, 2013
Newbury's 'Super Saturday' card 2013
Five weeks today we'll know the 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner so perhaps it's not surprising that Newbury's 'Super Saturday' isn't quite as super as we might have hoped for - Long Run misses the Denman Chase (2.25) to go straight to the Festival while stablemate Simonsig is the notable absentee from the Game Spirit (3.00).
Silviniaco Conti is the form pick for the Denman and is priced accordingly. The Giant Bolster, a fine second in last year's Gold Cup, ran an absolute stinker in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day; connections have let a couple of possible engagments slip by since then and will be keen to see an improved effort here - regular partner Tom Scudamore is back in the plate. Weird Al sports cheekpieces for the first time but looks a risky proposition these days while Menorah has never raced beyond two and a half miles. Tom George's Mail de Bievre races off a mark of 160 on his debut in this country and is interesting receiving weight from the field. The fact he hasn't run for 509 days is something of a negative and he's not guaranteed to stay; at just 8/1 the layers don't appear to be taking too many chances so I'm not really inclined to strike an each-way wager.
You have to go back to 2001 and Function Dream to find a horse older than eight to win the Game Spirit. If you're tempted to take that stat at face value, then Edgardo Sol has to be your selection as seven-year-old Majala has the Kingmaker at Warwick as his first preference. On ratings Shooters Wood has plenty to find with most in this field but the fact Walsh prefers this one to Edgardo should be noted.
The Betfair Hurdle (the 'Schweppes' to give the race its proper title) has 23 declared and is ultra competitive. Between them Henderson, Nicholls and Pipe account for more than half the field; the bottom six race from out of the handicap. Cotton Mill has his first run for 302 days and holds an entry in the Champion Hurdle while Ronaldo Des Mottes was second in the 2010 renewal of this race behind Get Me Out Of Here. Course and distance winner Claret Cloak (also holds a Champion Hurdle entry) would have been of interest if the stable had been in better form so David Pipe's unbeaten mare Swing Bowler (beautifully bred by Galileo out of Lady Cricket) is put up as the each-way selection - Ladbrokes offer 12/1.
Nicholls has a good record in the opener and connections have already talked of Lac Fontana as a Triumph Hurdle prospect which is why the gelding is priced up favourite ahead of Nicky Henderson's Chatterbox who beat My Tent Or Yours (market leader for the Betfair Hurdle at 3.35) readily over course and distance the last day but as a result has a penalty to carry.
Unioniste is the form horse for the novice chase (4.10) but both Hadrian's Approach (second in the Feltham behind Dynaste) and Our Father are useful. The last-named didn't appear to see the trip out on heavy ground at Cheltenham and it's interesting to note connections try a tongue-tie for the first time tomorrow.
The concluding bumper looks competitive. I saw Pure Science, owned by Mr Raymond Mould, win impressively at Warwick four weeks ago - the Festival bumper is clearly the target. Of course, the same can be said about a number of these including the top one Caledonia who will be ridden by ex jumps jock Graham Lee.
Quoted in today's Times, Lee says:
"All I've been told is that this is a good horse and they would like to run him in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. I've agreed to ride him if he goes there, and Saturday will tell us if he's good enough."
I was taken with the way Pure Science put that race to bed at Warwick - Pure Science is the selection.
Silviniaco Conti is the form pick for the Denman and is priced accordingly. The Giant Bolster, a fine second in last year's Gold Cup, ran an absolute stinker in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day; connections have let a couple of possible engagments slip by since then and will be keen to see an improved effort here - regular partner Tom Scudamore is back in the plate. Weird Al sports cheekpieces for the first time but looks a risky proposition these days while Menorah has never raced beyond two and a half miles. Tom George's Mail de Bievre races off a mark of 160 on his debut in this country and is interesting receiving weight from the field. The fact he hasn't run for 509 days is something of a negative and he's not guaranteed to stay; at just 8/1 the layers don't appear to be taking too many chances so I'm not really inclined to strike an each-way wager.
You have to go back to 2001 and Function Dream to find a horse older than eight to win the Game Spirit. If you're tempted to take that stat at face value, then Edgardo Sol has to be your selection as seven-year-old Majala has the Kingmaker at Warwick as his first preference. On ratings Shooters Wood has plenty to find with most in this field but the fact Walsh prefers this one to Edgardo should be noted.
The Betfair Hurdle (the 'Schweppes' to give the race its proper title) has 23 declared and is ultra competitive. Between them Henderson, Nicholls and Pipe account for more than half the field; the bottom six race from out of the handicap. Cotton Mill has his first run for 302 days and holds an entry in the Champion Hurdle while Ronaldo Des Mottes was second in the 2010 renewal of this race behind Get Me Out Of Here. Course and distance winner Claret Cloak (also holds a Champion Hurdle entry) would have been of interest if the stable had been in better form so David Pipe's unbeaten mare Swing Bowler (beautifully bred by Galileo out of Lady Cricket) is put up as the each-way selection - Ladbrokes offer 12/1.
Nicholls has a good record in the opener and connections have already talked of Lac Fontana as a Triumph Hurdle prospect which is why the gelding is priced up favourite ahead of Nicky Henderson's Chatterbox who beat My Tent Or Yours (market leader for the Betfair Hurdle at 3.35) readily over course and distance the last day but as a result has a penalty to carry.
Unioniste is the form horse for the novice chase (4.10) but both Hadrian's Approach (second in the Feltham behind Dynaste) and Our Father are useful. The last-named didn't appear to see the trip out on heavy ground at Cheltenham and it's interesting to note connections try a tongue-tie for the first time tomorrow.
The concluding bumper looks competitive. I saw Pure Science, owned by Mr Raymond Mould, win impressively at Warwick four weeks ago - the Festival bumper is clearly the target. Of course, the same can be said about a number of these including the top one Caledonia who will be ridden by ex jumps jock Graham Lee.
Quoted in today's Times, Lee says:
"All I've been told is that this is a good horse and they would like to run him in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. I've agreed to ride him if he goes there, and Saturday will tell us if he's good enough."
I was taken with the way Pure Science put that race to bed at Warwick - Pure Science is the selection.
Friday, February 01, 2013
Ffos Las fancies
Tomorrow's Sandown card is an all-chase affair, the hurdles track having failed to cope with recent rain and snow. At this stage several Champion Hurdle contenders who were amongst the original declarations for the opener at the Esher course have now been re-routed to Doncaster for Monday's 32Red hurdle including Darlan, Rock On Ruby and Grandouet.
All eyes will be on Captain Conan at Sandown in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at 2.25. Barry Geraghty appears confident his mount will stay; I certainly wouldn't be tempted at odds of 2/5. His three opponents have all won over the trip while the favourite was beaten on both starts over two miles two last season.
After his horse Oscar Whisky had finished a neck second to Reve De Sivola at Cheltenham last week, Ffos Las owner Dai Walters took the opportunity to plug tomorrow's card at the West Wales track, pointing out that the £15 entrance fee was considerably cheaper than a ticket to the Wales v. Ireland rugby international - the match is scheduled to be transmitted on the large screen at the course.
As an aside, I fancy Ireland at the Millennium Stadium (13/10 Coral) but, getting back to the racing, the highlight is the Welsh Champion Hurdle (2.05), a limited handicap run over two and a half miles. Two years ago Mr Walters won this race with the aforementioned Oscar Whisky; this time he relies on Tanerko Emery but he doesn't appear particularly confident... Nicky Henderson's Oscara Dara is bound to be popular after victory in the Lanzarote at Kempton three weeks ago; his ungainly stumble at the last that day was far from pretty on the eye but the manner in which he recovered to win suggested there was a bit left in the tank. The handicapper has noticed though - he races off a mark 14 pounds higher here. It's interesting to see connections revert to the smaller obstacles with Tiger O'Toole; a talented individual on his day, in my book he has never really taken to chasing. His hurdles mark is nine pounds lower than his chase rating and although some of that advantage is negated by the race conditions, the 33/1 available generally looks too tempting; Tiger O'Toole is the each-way selection.
Twelve declared for the West Wales National at 2.40 (although Summery Justice has the 3.35 at Sandown as first preference) in which the bottom seven race from out of the handicap. Alfie Spinner is marked up favourite this evening - this one got no further than the third in the Hennessey and was then firmly put in his place by Katenko (winner since) at Sandown. At the last minute connections opted for that Sandown engagement rather than the Welsh National at Chepstow (presumably as it looked the easier task) so the fact the gelding was beaten some 27 lengths doesn't inspire confidence. Cannington Brook had a particularly hard race in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock six weeks ago, holding Jonjo O'Neill's Merry King a nose on the line. Junior holds claims but is quirky so at the prices I'll take an each-way interest in Our Island (16/1 Ladbrokes) from Tim Vaughan's stable. This one ran well for a long way in the Welsh National having previously finished third in the Devon Marathon Handicap Chase at Exeter; he has place claims even though seven pounds 'wrong' at the weights.
Four go in the novice chase (3.10); Sir Mattie has his first run for 237 days but the other three look closely matched. I was at Warwick three weeks ago when Tour Des Champs came to grief two out in the race won by Rocky Creek. My impression was Tour Des Champs may have finished second that day but it was a crashing fall and his completion rate over the larger obstacles leaves a little to be desired. Benheir made a mistake at the first in the Classic Chase at that meeting and struggled thereafter but may show improvement with AP McCoy replacing seven pound claimer Patrick Corbett in the saddle. To be fair to the claimer, the pairing has won previously over the course and on their penutlimate outing finished 15 lengths behind Carruthers (goes in the 2.40). One In A Milan could be anything after an easy course and distance win last time out. Rebecca Curtis said in a Weekender stable tour (24-28 October 2012) that Benheir would be aimed at the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham - the stable won that race last year with Teaforthree - and, as McCoy has an excellent record riding for the yard, I'm going to give the vote to Benheir ahead of Tour Des Champs.
The same trainer / jockey combination will be worth a second look with Internationalapeal, described as 'a very big horse for his age' in the concluding bumper.
All eyes will be on Captain Conan at Sandown in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at 2.25. Barry Geraghty appears confident his mount will stay; I certainly wouldn't be tempted at odds of 2/5. His three opponents have all won over the trip while the favourite was beaten on both starts over two miles two last season.
After his horse Oscar Whisky had finished a neck second to Reve De Sivola at Cheltenham last week, Ffos Las owner Dai Walters took the opportunity to plug tomorrow's card at the West Wales track, pointing out that the £15 entrance fee was considerably cheaper than a ticket to the Wales v. Ireland rugby international - the match is scheduled to be transmitted on the large screen at the course.
As an aside, I fancy Ireland at the Millennium Stadium (13/10 Coral) but, getting back to the racing, the highlight is the Welsh Champion Hurdle (2.05), a limited handicap run over two and a half miles. Two years ago Mr Walters won this race with the aforementioned Oscar Whisky; this time he relies on Tanerko Emery but he doesn't appear particularly confident... Nicky Henderson's Oscara Dara is bound to be popular after victory in the Lanzarote at Kempton three weeks ago; his ungainly stumble at the last that day was far from pretty on the eye but the manner in which he recovered to win suggested there was a bit left in the tank. The handicapper has noticed though - he races off a mark 14 pounds higher here. It's interesting to see connections revert to the smaller obstacles with Tiger O'Toole; a talented individual on his day, in my book he has never really taken to chasing. His hurdles mark is nine pounds lower than his chase rating and although some of that advantage is negated by the race conditions, the 33/1 available generally looks too tempting; Tiger O'Toole is the each-way selection.
Twelve declared for the West Wales National at 2.40 (although Summery Justice has the 3.35 at Sandown as first preference) in which the bottom seven race from out of the handicap. Alfie Spinner is marked up favourite this evening - this one got no further than the third in the Hennessey and was then firmly put in his place by Katenko (winner since) at Sandown. At the last minute connections opted for that Sandown engagement rather than the Welsh National at Chepstow (presumably as it looked the easier task) so the fact the gelding was beaten some 27 lengths doesn't inspire confidence. Cannington Brook had a particularly hard race in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock six weeks ago, holding Jonjo O'Neill's Merry King a nose on the line. Junior holds claims but is quirky so at the prices I'll take an each-way interest in Our Island (16/1 Ladbrokes) from Tim Vaughan's stable. This one ran well for a long way in the Welsh National having previously finished third in the Devon Marathon Handicap Chase at Exeter; he has place claims even though seven pounds 'wrong' at the weights.
Four go in the novice chase (3.10); Sir Mattie has his first run for 237 days but the other three look closely matched. I was at Warwick three weeks ago when Tour Des Champs came to grief two out in the race won by Rocky Creek. My impression was Tour Des Champs may have finished second that day but it was a crashing fall and his completion rate over the larger obstacles leaves a little to be desired. Benheir made a mistake at the first in the Classic Chase at that meeting and struggled thereafter but may show improvement with AP McCoy replacing seven pound claimer Patrick Corbett in the saddle. To be fair to the claimer, the pairing has won previously over the course and on their penutlimate outing finished 15 lengths behind Carruthers (goes in the 2.40). One In A Milan could be anything after an easy course and distance win last time out. Rebecca Curtis said in a Weekender stable tour (24-28 October 2012) that Benheir would be aimed at the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham - the stable won that race last year with Teaforthree - and, as McCoy has an excellent record riding for the yard, I'm going to give the vote to Benheir ahead of Tour Des Champs.
The same trainer / jockey combination will be worth a second look with Internationalapeal, described as 'a very big horse for his age' in the concluding bumper.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Cheltenham Festival Trials Day 2013
Cheltenham communications director Andy Clifton is 'very very confident' Festival Trials Day will go ahead tomorrow; a cracking card it is too with eight races which should give some clues for the battles ahead in March.
The Victor Chandler Chase (1.50), carried over from Ascot last Saturday, appeals as a spectacle rather than a betting medium and looks at the mercy of Sprinter Sacre.
The Argento Chase (2.25) on the other hand appears particularly trappy. Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth isn't in the line-up after an unsatisfactory scope; Tidal Bay suffered a slight setback earlier in the week but looks set to start favourite instead. Grands Crus is interesting after a breathing operation and an improved display in the King George but has let supporters down at this venue before while previous Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander looks short enough in the market on his first run for 680 days. Hunt Ball disappointed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and, although better the next time behind Menorah, would probably prefer a slightly shorter trip. On ratings Quartz De Thaix has a bit to find with a couple in the field but Venetia Williams' charge has been in decent form this term and rates an each-way wager (18/1 Stan James) in an open event.
I was at Warwick a fortnight ago to see The New One win as he liked. Visually it was a most impressive performance although the main opponent that day, Dursey Sound, ran no race after a bad error at the seventh. I'll oppose with Coneygree in the Neptune (3.00).
The question in the Cleeve (3.35) is whether Oscar Whisky stays three miles. On his one attempt at the trip to date he finished a well-beaten fifth behind Big Buck's in last year's World Hurdle; connections are convinced that is not his true form. If you're unconvinced then you can't fail to be anything other than impressed by Reve De Sivola who put a high class field to the sword in Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle over three miles plus last month. The top two in the market have to give weight to the rest - of the pair I prefer Reve De Sivola at the prices - but I'm going out on a limb and having an each-way dabble on Crack Away Jack (16/1) who looks to have benefitted from the move to Tom George's yard. You couldn't be certain that he'd consent to put his best foot forward but his second behind Tidal Bay at Wetherby reads particularly well.
I don't intend to play in the two handicap chases but those looking for suggestions may want to consider Gullinbursti and Theatrical Star (12.40) who were both beaten by smart rivals at Exeter on New Year's Day while old favourite Fruity O'Rooney runs at 1.15.
The opener should prove useful for future reference (Kim Bailey wouldn't enter Milord just for the sake of it) while the finale has some interesting sorts including Lord Of House, His Excellency (rated eight pounds higher over fences), Solix (fifth in the 2011 running of the Coral Cup), Dildar and down at the bottom Thunder Sheik. Thunder Sheik looked one to watch out for after finishing second at Warwick last time; connections appeared particularly animated after that effort although the fact he runs from ten pounds out of the handicap here suggests they may just be tilting at windmills. 33/1 is on offer for those prepared to take the chance...
The Victor Chandler Chase (1.50), carried over from Ascot last Saturday, appeals as a spectacle rather than a betting medium and looks at the mercy of Sprinter Sacre.
The Argento Chase (2.25) on the other hand appears particularly trappy. Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth isn't in the line-up after an unsatisfactory scope; Tidal Bay suffered a slight setback earlier in the week but looks set to start favourite instead. Grands Crus is interesting after a breathing operation and an improved display in the King George but has let supporters down at this venue before while previous Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander looks short enough in the market on his first run for 680 days. Hunt Ball disappointed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and, although better the next time behind Menorah, would probably prefer a slightly shorter trip. On ratings Quartz De Thaix has a bit to find with a couple in the field but Venetia Williams' charge has been in decent form this term and rates an each-way wager (18/1 Stan James) in an open event.
I was at Warwick a fortnight ago to see The New One win as he liked. Visually it was a most impressive performance although the main opponent that day, Dursey Sound, ran no race after a bad error at the seventh. I'll oppose with Coneygree in the Neptune (3.00).
The question in the Cleeve (3.35) is whether Oscar Whisky stays three miles. On his one attempt at the trip to date he finished a well-beaten fifth behind Big Buck's in last year's World Hurdle; connections are convinced that is not his true form. If you're unconvinced then you can't fail to be anything other than impressed by Reve De Sivola who put a high class field to the sword in Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle over three miles plus last month. The top two in the market have to give weight to the rest - of the pair I prefer Reve De Sivola at the prices - but I'm going out on a limb and having an each-way dabble on Crack Away Jack (16/1) who looks to have benefitted from the move to Tom George's yard. You couldn't be certain that he'd consent to put his best foot forward but his second behind Tidal Bay at Wetherby reads particularly well.
I don't intend to play in the two handicap chases but those looking for suggestions may want to consider Gullinbursti and Theatrical Star (12.40) who were both beaten by smart rivals at Exeter on New Year's Day while old favourite Fruity O'Rooney runs at 1.15.
The opener should prove useful for future reference (Kim Bailey wouldn't enter Milord just for the sake of it) while the finale has some interesting sorts including Lord Of House, His Excellency (rated eight pounds higher over fences), Solix (fifth in the 2011 running of the Coral Cup), Dildar and down at the bottom Thunder Sheik. Thunder Sheik looked one to watch out for after finishing second at Warwick last time; connections appeared particularly animated after that effort although the fact he runs from ten pounds out of the handicap here suggests they may just be tilting at windmills. 33/1 is on offer for those prepared to take the chance...
Friday, January 18, 2013
Snow patrol
Saturday's scheduled turf fixtures at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton have all been abandoned, as has Sunday's card at Towcester. The weather has certainly played its part this NH season - soft / heavy ground practically everywhere through autumn and now the snow has arrived.
You know, with the abandonment of Cheltenham on New Year's Day, Channel 4 Racing seems to have unwittingly kicked off the Festival Preview merry-go-round some six weeks early.
In last Saturday's Racing Post Carl Hicks, the man now at the helm of Channel 4's racing coverage, said: 'I'd give us seven out of ten so far.' I'm inclined to mark a little more harshly - as was often noted on my 'old school' school reports, IMG Sports Media 'needs to try harder'. In the Weekender the previous week Tom Segal said he thought Highflyer's offering was better; I agree - at the moment I'm struggling to give Carl and his team a six.
Still, with the weather the way it is and the Festival seven and a half weeks distant, it would seem churlish not to make at least one suggestion. Over the years the ante-post market for the Festival Bumper (last race on the Wednesday) has proved particularly volatile but Mick Channon's Sgt Reckless is of interest, although I admit I've missed the boat with his price now 16/1, having been 33s earlier in the week.
The handler nominated this one for the bumper at the Open meeting in November but the gelding missed that appointment on account of a pulled muscle. Since then he has given weight and a beating to a field on the all-weather at Lingfield in a time over five seconds faster than the corresponding division of the race run 30 minutes earlier.
Of course, it wouldn't be particularly diligent to read too much into times recorded in bumper races and I'm not particularly keen on ante-post wagers but if some of that previously-mentioned market volatility were to surface in the next week or two, I could be tempted into taking an interest.
In the meantime, with no prospect of turf racing for the foreseeable future, Snow Patrol suggest:
'Let's waste time
Chasing cars
Around our heads.'
[Snow Patrol, Chasing Cars]
You know, with the abandonment of Cheltenham on New Year's Day, Channel 4 Racing seems to have unwittingly kicked off the Festival Preview merry-go-round some six weeks early.
In last Saturday's Racing Post Carl Hicks, the man now at the helm of Channel 4's racing coverage, said: 'I'd give us seven out of ten so far.' I'm inclined to mark a little more harshly - as was often noted on my 'old school' school reports, IMG Sports Media 'needs to try harder'. In the Weekender the previous week Tom Segal said he thought Highflyer's offering was better; I agree - at the moment I'm struggling to give Carl and his team a six.
Still, with the weather the way it is and the Festival seven and a half weeks distant, it would seem churlish not to make at least one suggestion. Over the years the ante-post market for the Festival Bumper (last race on the Wednesday) has proved particularly volatile but Mick Channon's Sgt Reckless is of interest, although I admit I've missed the boat with his price now 16/1, having been 33s earlier in the week.
The handler nominated this one for the bumper at the Open meeting in November but the gelding missed that appointment on account of a pulled muscle. Since then he has given weight and a beating to a field on the all-weather at Lingfield in a time over five seconds faster than the corresponding division of the race run 30 minutes earlier.
Of course, it wouldn't be particularly diligent to read too much into times recorded in bumper races and I'm not particularly keen on ante-post wagers but if some of that previously-mentioned market volatility were to surface in the next week or two, I could be tempted into taking an interest.
In the meantime, with no prospect of turf racing for the foreseeable future, Snow Patrol suggest:
'Let's waste time
Chasing cars
Around our heads.'
[Snow Patrol, Chasing Cars]
Sunday, January 13, 2013
Brief notes from the course after Warwick's Classic Chase meet
Brief notes from Warwick's Classic Chase day meeting yesterday...
I've attended this particular meet several times over the years; whilst I was pleasantly surprised at the lack of crowds in the betting ring, around the paddock and in the bars, I'm guessing the track's management will view the attendance figures with some disappointment.
In the opener Timmy Murphy looked slightly unlucky not to win on his first ride back from injury when top weight Thunder Sheik (12/1) couldn't match Flaming Charmer (14/1) for toe after the last. I stood opposite the trainer and owners as the runner-up was unsaddled - Murphy was pretty animated and took what appeared an unusually long time to debrief connections. The first-time tongue-tie worn here appears to have helped and the hint was this bay is likely to appreciate further.
I didn't see Eastlake in the paddock beforehand but colleagues reported the gelding appeared sore behind. In the event he ran well but Rody quickly put the race to bed between the final two flights.
No sooner was Grand National winner Neptune Collonges brought into the paddock to parade before the third than he was spooked. The grey was clearly on good terms with himself - two handlers walked him around for a while after as he calmed down; several racegoers took the opportunity to take a picture. In the race itself 14/1 chance Tour Des Champs, running in the colours of Mr H R Mould (made famous by 2002 Grand National winner Bindaree), looked ready to mount a strong challenge to the principals when coming to grief two from home. Many will have been disappointed with Highland Lodge (third) but punters are forgiving beings - in the unsaddling enclosure I saw somebody pass two packets of polos to the lad as he walked the favourite around.
I wasn't inclined to play in the 2.25 with 18 runners and The Package priced up at around 3/1. The night before I had picked out Ely Brown (honest) but the Guinness called and I went and bought a round of drinks instead. We watched the action from a verandah outside the bar, standing just behind Countryfile presenter John Craven. Much to my dismay Ely Brown (12/1) won well but it appeared Mr Craven had been somewhat less reticent than my good self in striking a wager as the smiles and raised eyebrows came thick and fast after Ely passed the post in front. Displaying signs of excellent breeding, as one would expect, Mr Craven seemed in no particular rush to collect his winnings.
In the paddock The New One looked very strong behind but didn't catch the eye; he certainly caught the eye on the track.
Three pound claimer Robbie Dunne did his career prospects no harm whatsoever winning the feature on Rigadin De Beuachene. Something clearly upset the winner after the race - on a couple of occasions he looked ready to kick out - and the stable girl wisely took him away, missing the opportunity to collect her silver salver. Venetia Williams, a trainer in fine form as well as a lady who knows how to wear a hat, proved an able substitute.
The final word has to go to a bookmaker - the following sign was noted at Ka Be Ge's pitch:
"Remember, a bad day at the races is always better than a good day at work."
I've attended this particular meet several times over the years; whilst I was pleasantly surprised at the lack of crowds in the betting ring, around the paddock and in the bars, I'm guessing the track's management will view the attendance figures with some disappointment.
In the opener Timmy Murphy looked slightly unlucky not to win on his first ride back from injury when top weight Thunder Sheik (12/1) couldn't match Flaming Charmer (14/1) for toe after the last. I stood opposite the trainer and owners as the runner-up was unsaddled - Murphy was pretty animated and took what appeared an unusually long time to debrief connections. The first-time tongue-tie worn here appears to have helped and the hint was this bay is likely to appreciate further.
I didn't see Eastlake in the paddock beforehand but colleagues reported the gelding appeared sore behind. In the event he ran well but Rody quickly put the race to bed between the final two flights.
No sooner was Grand National winner Neptune Collonges brought into the paddock to parade before the third than he was spooked. The grey was clearly on good terms with himself - two handlers walked him around for a while after as he calmed down; several racegoers took the opportunity to take a picture. In the race itself 14/1 chance Tour Des Champs, running in the colours of Mr H R Mould (made famous by 2002 Grand National winner Bindaree), looked ready to mount a strong challenge to the principals when coming to grief two from home. Many will have been disappointed with Highland Lodge (third) but punters are forgiving beings - in the unsaddling enclosure I saw somebody pass two packets of polos to the lad as he walked the favourite around.
I wasn't inclined to play in the 2.25 with 18 runners and The Package priced up at around 3/1. The night before I had picked out Ely Brown (honest) but the Guinness called and I went and bought a round of drinks instead. We watched the action from a verandah outside the bar, standing just behind Countryfile presenter John Craven. Much to my dismay Ely Brown (12/1) won well but it appeared Mr Craven had been somewhat less reticent than my good self in striking a wager as the smiles and raised eyebrows came thick and fast after Ely passed the post in front. Displaying signs of excellent breeding, as one would expect, Mr Craven seemed in no particular rush to collect his winnings.
In the paddock The New One looked very strong behind but didn't catch the eye; he certainly caught the eye on the track.
Three pound claimer Robbie Dunne did his career prospects no harm whatsoever winning the feature on Rigadin De Beuachene. Something clearly upset the winner after the race - on a couple of occasions he looked ready to kick out - and the stable girl wisely took him away, missing the opportunity to collect her silver salver. Venetia Williams, a trainer in fine form as well as a lady who knows how to wear a hat, proved an able substitute.
The final word has to go to a bookmaker - the following sign was noted at Ka Be Ge's pitch:
"Remember, a bad day at the races is always better than a good day at work."
Friday, January 11, 2013
Warwick's Classic Chase day 2013
Last year Warwick racecourse lost a third of its fixtures due to heavy rain while the local district council rejected a plan to build a 100 bedroom hotel on site.
The question now being asked in some quarters is 'Can Warwick keep its racecourse?'
Tomorrow's meeting is the track's biggest jumps card of the year. I intend to pop along for old times' sake - you never know, future meetings could just become vulnerable...
The highlight is the Classic Chase run over three miles five furlongs - 13 face the starter at 3.35. Charlie Longsdon's Pete The Feat has won five on the bounce this season and bids to make it six off a mark of 134, nine pounds higher than when he made all to win the Mandarin Chase at Newbury over Christmas; this evening layers offer 4/1. The locally-trained Restless Harry is bound to be popular and likely to race from the front but in my opinion he's better over the smaller obstacles (one win from four chase starts); the fences come thick and fast down the back straight and he may struggle with the jumping, a comment that could also apply to Bradley although his neck second to Monbeg Dude on his penultimate run reads well after that one won the Welsh National last weekend.
My tip for last week's Welsh National, Universal Soldier, ran like a drain - he reappears here seven days later but is hard to fancy while Rigadin De Beauchene is short enough in the market for a horse that didn't appear to stay three and a quarter miles at Fontwell in March.
Hey Big Spender won last year's renewal with 11 stones 12 off a mark of 156 - tomorrow's top weight Auroras Encore is rated 142 with all the runners set to carry their long handicap weight.
Two interest me - last year's fourth Major Malarkey and the bottom one Flying Award. Twiston-Davies won this in 2005 with Baron Windrush and his charge made a pleasing seasonal debut a neck behind Lively Baron in the London National at Sandown so I'll take an each-way interest in 10/1 chance Major Malarkey.
In the Leamington Novices' Hurdle (3.00) all eyes with be The New One. On course I'll try to get him beaten with Dursey Sound who has one pound to find on official ratings but I wouldn't be confident. In the last six renewals the favourite has obliged on four occasions.
Highland Lodge disappointed in the Leamington Hurdle at the track last year so Rocky Creek is marginally prefered in the novice chase. Having said that, I'm often wary of betting Paul Nicholls' runners in January as in the past the yard has tended to give the majority of their horses a flu jab at the beginning of the month.
I had to look twice to make sure the Pertemps Hurdle (2.25) wasn't some kind of Grand National trial with West End Rocker, Sunnyhillboy and The Package declared. The two mile handicap chase for the Edward Courage Cup (1.15) looks trappy but I'm going to chance George Nympton who won over course and distance last time out.
The question now being asked in some quarters is 'Can Warwick keep its racecourse?'
Tomorrow's meeting is the track's biggest jumps card of the year. I intend to pop along for old times' sake - you never know, future meetings could just become vulnerable...
The highlight is the Classic Chase run over three miles five furlongs - 13 face the starter at 3.35. Charlie Longsdon's Pete The Feat has won five on the bounce this season and bids to make it six off a mark of 134, nine pounds higher than when he made all to win the Mandarin Chase at Newbury over Christmas; this evening layers offer 4/1. The locally-trained Restless Harry is bound to be popular and likely to race from the front but in my opinion he's better over the smaller obstacles (one win from four chase starts); the fences come thick and fast down the back straight and he may struggle with the jumping, a comment that could also apply to Bradley although his neck second to Monbeg Dude on his penultimate run reads well after that one won the Welsh National last weekend.
My tip for last week's Welsh National, Universal Soldier, ran like a drain - he reappears here seven days later but is hard to fancy while Rigadin De Beauchene is short enough in the market for a horse that didn't appear to stay three and a quarter miles at Fontwell in March.
Hey Big Spender won last year's renewal with 11 stones 12 off a mark of 156 - tomorrow's top weight Auroras Encore is rated 142 with all the runners set to carry their long handicap weight.
Two interest me - last year's fourth Major Malarkey and the bottom one Flying Award. Twiston-Davies won this in 2005 with Baron Windrush and his charge made a pleasing seasonal debut a neck behind Lively Baron in the London National at Sandown so I'll take an each-way interest in 10/1 chance Major Malarkey.
In the Leamington Novices' Hurdle (3.00) all eyes with be The New One. On course I'll try to get him beaten with Dursey Sound who has one pound to find on official ratings but I wouldn't be confident. In the last six renewals the favourite has obliged on four occasions.
Highland Lodge disappointed in the Leamington Hurdle at the track last year so Rocky Creek is marginally prefered in the novice chase. Having said that, I'm often wary of betting Paul Nicholls' runners in January as in the past the yard has tended to give the majority of their horses a flu jab at the beginning of the month.
I had to look twice to make sure the Pertemps Hurdle (2.25) wasn't some kind of Grand National trial with West End Rocker, Sunnyhillboy and The Package declared. The two mile handicap chase for the Edward Courage Cup (1.15) looks trappy but I'm going to chance George Nympton who won over course and distance last time out.
Friday, January 04, 2013
The Welsh Grand National, Clare Balding, Mr Little's Noisy Car and the Tolworth...
Originally Clare Balding was rostered to cover the Welsh National at Chepstow for the BBC so there's a certain irony in the fact that, due to mitigating circumstances, nine days on she fronts this year's renewal for her new employers at Channel 4.
Channel 4's brand new racing coverage didn't get off to the most auspicious of starts on new year's day. Cheltenham was called off so Balding gave us a whirlwind tour of Nicky Henderson's stable instead; a couple of races from Musselburgh were thrown in for the sheer hell of it while Nick Luck, Jim McGrath, Graham Cunningham and Tanya Stevenson spent a sizeable chunk of the airtime available impersonating a job interview panel.
Their appearance brought to mind a previous occasion when one such panel enquired of me 'What was the last work of fiction you read and what do you remember most about it?' I replied 'Mr. Little's Noisy Car. The thing I remember most was Mr. Little finding a tiger in the boot of the car.' The kids were quite small at the time; I didn't get the job.
It's early days for Channel 4's new team and I don't want to appear too judgmental. Mrs Tips, never one to keep quiet for no reason whatsoever, tells me the jury is out...
18 have been declared for the Chepstow feature tomorrow but the picture is complicated somewhat by the fact that both Across The Bay and Alfie Spinner have also been declared for the 3.40 at Sandown. The perceived wisdom is Across The Bay runs at Chepstow while my Welsh National fancy, Alfie Spinner, is heading to Sandown. Gutted.
Teaforthree has an obvious chance with underfoot conditions sure to suit; this has been the target all season. He's tipped up everywhere - the layers appear to be taking the name literally as several offer no more than a rather miserly-looking 3/1. I share John Francome's view on Michel Le Bon - the horse just doesn't jump anywhere near well enough.
The last winner older than nine was Riverside Boy back in 1993, a stat that knocks out half the field. I've looked for something with course form that's aged under ten and with less than 11 stone to carry - Charlie Longsdon's Universal Soldier fits the bill. This one finished just over 13 lengths behind Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in March and is now six pounds better off; the first-time blinkers are a cause for slight concern. I'll take a small each-way interest in Universal Soldier at 10/1.
The Tolworth at Sandown (2.25) looks most intriguing with layers offering 7/2 each of three this evening. Geraghty rides Royal Boy rather than course and distance winner Golden Hoof; the latter-named boasts the same official rating as Melodic Rendezvous (135) who had Royal Boy threequarters of a length behind at Cheltenham three weeks ago. That was Royal Boy's first run for nearly two years and connections will fancy their chance of turning the form around. Clive Cox's Poet, a winner of Group Three races on the Flat, jumped like an old-hand on his first try over hurdles at Newbury 17 days ago; an article in yesterday's Times indicated John Francome has done much of the work with this one with the Champion Hurdle the target if things go to plan here. Of the principals, I have to oppose both Poet (on account of age - eight) and Melodic Rendezvous (his handler was decidely downbeat about his charge's chance on heavy ground before the Cheltenham race.) Court Minstrel is not lightly dismissed and appeared a little unlucky in running when bumped and hampered after the last behind Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham - Henderson has a benchmark in River Maigue, second that day and a winner since. Royal Boy gets the nod; whatever happens, the race will prove useful for future reference.
I won't play in the finale at Sandown. I suspect Team Tizzard are giving Hey Big Spender a runout before another crack at Warwick's Classic Chase (next weekend) while at the time of writing my former Welsh National fancy Alfie Spinner is priced up favourite. Triolo D'Alene has had a breathing operation and could come on for his seasonal debut but to date hasn't proved he stays this trip. Fruity O'Rooney definitely does stay the trip and could well make a bold bid (seventh in Hennessy) but in the past has tended to jump out left when racing on right-handed tracks.
Channel 4's brand new racing coverage didn't get off to the most auspicious of starts on new year's day. Cheltenham was called off so Balding gave us a whirlwind tour of Nicky Henderson's stable instead; a couple of races from Musselburgh were thrown in for the sheer hell of it while Nick Luck, Jim McGrath, Graham Cunningham and Tanya Stevenson spent a sizeable chunk of the airtime available impersonating a job interview panel.
Their appearance brought to mind a previous occasion when one such panel enquired of me 'What was the last work of fiction you read and what do you remember most about it?' I replied 'Mr. Little's Noisy Car. The thing I remember most was Mr. Little finding a tiger in the boot of the car.' The kids were quite small at the time; I didn't get the job.
It's early days for Channel 4's new team and I don't want to appear too judgmental. Mrs Tips, never one to keep quiet for no reason whatsoever, tells me the jury is out...
18 have been declared for the Chepstow feature tomorrow but the picture is complicated somewhat by the fact that both Across The Bay and Alfie Spinner have also been declared for the 3.40 at Sandown. The perceived wisdom is Across The Bay runs at Chepstow while my Welsh National fancy, Alfie Spinner, is heading to Sandown. Gutted.
Teaforthree has an obvious chance with underfoot conditions sure to suit; this has been the target all season. He's tipped up everywhere - the layers appear to be taking the name literally as several offer no more than a rather miserly-looking 3/1. I share John Francome's view on Michel Le Bon - the horse just doesn't jump anywhere near well enough.
The last winner older than nine was Riverside Boy back in 1993, a stat that knocks out half the field. I've looked for something with course form that's aged under ten and with less than 11 stone to carry - Charlie Longsdon's Universal Soldier fits the bill. This one finished just over 13 lengths behind Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in March and is now six pounds better off; the first-time blinkers are a cause for slight concern. I'll take a small each-way interest in Universal Soldier at 10/1.
The Tolworth at Sandown (2.25) looks most intriguing with layers offering 7/2 each of three this evening. Geraghty rides Royal Boy rather than course and distance winner Golden Hoof; the latter-named boasts the same official rating as Melodic Rendezvous (135) who had Royal Boy threequarters of a length behind at Cheltenham three weeks ago. That was Royal Boy's first run for nearly two years and connections will fancy their chance of turning the form around. Clive Cox's Poet, a winner of Group Three races on the Flat, jumped like an old-hand on his first try over hurdles at Newbury 17 days ago; an article in yesterday's Times indicated John Francome has done much of the work with this one with the Champion Hurdle the target if things go to plan here. Of the principals, I have to oppose both Poet (on account of age - eight) and Melodic Rendezvous (his handler was decidely downbeat about his charge's chance on heavy ground before the Cheltenham race.) Court Minstrel is not lightly dismissed and appeared a little unlucky in running when bumped and hampered after the last behind Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham - Henderson has a benchmark in River Maigue, second that day and a winner since. Royal Boy gets the nod; whatever happens, the race will prove useful for future reference.
I won't play in the finale at Sandown. I suspect Team Tizzard are giving Hey Big Spender a runout before another crack at Warwick's Classic Chase (next weekend) while at the time of writing my former Welsh National fancy Alfie Spinner is priced up favourite. Triolo D'Alene has had a breathing operation and could come on for his seasonal debut but to date hasn't proved he stays this trip. Fruity O'Rooney definitely does stay the trip and could well make a bold bid (seventh in Hennessy) but in the past has tended to jump out left when racing on right-handed tracks.
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